The Lemon Fool

88V8 wrote:

Dod101 wrote:...I am surprised that there are not more squeals here re the capital values.

We're all HYPers now... or perhaps we just like the colour red.

I try to be pleased when I see a holding underwater, because it affords the opportunity to buy more at a better price.
Mind you, there's underwater, and there's underwater

V8

As they say, be careful what you wish for.

Dod

88V8 wrote:

Dod101 wrote:...I am surprised that there are not more squeals here re the capital values.

We're all HYPers now... or perhaps we just like the colour red.

I try to be pleased when I see a holding underwater, because it affords the opportunity to buy more at a better price.
Mind you, there's underwater, and there's underwater

V8

Quite, I buy most months and have been growing my portfolio for years, those pesky prices have been drifting upwards. I like lower prices when I shop. Slightly annoyingly I'm accumulating cash as the kitchen and car need attention.

vand wrote:

Dod101 wrote:It is not looking too good at the moment at least with the UK market. Is this due to the uncertain political situation or is there something else at work? I am a bit out of touch being incarcerated in a hospital but might try to get a paper tomorrow.

Dod

Global thing imo. S&P has violated some key support levels.

Lon term interest rates continue to push to new highs, pressuring risky assets - it makes absolute sense that stocks are selling off when you can get 5% for 10yrs on a government note, no questions asked.

And, as usual, the indexes are being held up by a handful of big stocks and hide the carnage happening underneath the surface.

For whoever said that governments can print money and pile on debt without consequence... are they willing to accept that just perhaps we are undergoing those consequences right now? For those of us a little less bravado and think debt matters...but also struggle to identify exactly how that manifests itself or *how* it matters... maybe this is how it matters? There's a reason Argentina and Turkey governments can't borrow money at 3%...

You may find this interesting, it would support your idea and contains much sense. Written by Andrew Neil.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... -moon.html

Another down week so I was expecting lows as we were almost there anyway. This beats the last yearly low, just.

It going to be some Santa rally.

The good news is that dividends are already up on last year. Time to buy???

I can think of a few that might be worth a top up but it's always in the back of your mind that it might be even cheaper tomorrow.

I suspect next week might be a small rise but I've been wrong before and likely be again. My fund PF was down more than my individual share picks. I might start to charge a bigger commission to myself.

doug2500 wrote:

vand wrote:
Global thing imo. S&P has violated some key support levels.

Lon term interest rates continue to push to new highs, pressuring risky assets - it makes absolute sense that stocks are selling off when you can get 5% for 10yrs on a government note, no questions asked.

And, as usual, the indexes are being held up by a handful of big stocks and hide the carnage happening underneath the surface.

For whoever said that governments can print money and pile on debt without consequence... are they willing to accept that just perhaps we are undergoing those consequences right now? For those of us a little less bravado and think debt matters...but also struggle to identify exactly how that manifests itself or *how* it matters... maybe this is how it matters? There's a reason Argentina and Turkey governments can't borrow money at 3%...

You may find this interesting, it would support your idea and contains much sense. Written by Andrew Neil.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... -moon.html

I certainly find these views largely coincide with my own. I am though more interested in the effect on companies. The more conservative and better run ones will be fine but their asset values are certainly being hit by the high discount rates and I think that more than earnings are being badly hit.
Dod

Gerry557 wrote:Another down week so I was expecting lows as we were almost there anyway. This beats the last yearly low, just.

Yes same here - last October was 16% down on the previous high, set November 21. This October is fractionally worse.

Perhaps time to get some stronger medication!

I was looking for clues that most investors are hurting more than the drawdown in the S&P, and, well, I didn't have to look very hard...

Index        YTD	Drawdown from peak
S&P 500	      7%	-15%
S&P 500EW    -6%	-18%
Russell	     -7%	-33%
FTSE 100     -9%        -9%
FTSE 250     -11%      -31%
FTSE SmCap    -12%	-26%
FTSE AIM    -24%	-52%

Look at the carnage in AIM and Smallcaps!

It may be foolish, vand.

But UK small and mid caps are where I'm itching to buy in at present.

Alas, I might need to wait a month - just paid the balance on a Mediterranean Cruise for the family or perhaps

Regards, Newroad

Newroad wrote:It may be foolish, vand.

But UK small and mid caps are where I'm itching to buy in at present.

Alas, I might need to wait a month - just paid the balance on a Mediterranean Cruise for the family or perhaps

Regards, Newroad

I'm happy dipping into the 250, but smallcaps/AIM are a mug's game imo. Too much risk and too many hypergrowth stories that turn to hyperbust just as quickly. Might worth a tracker or a fund that you think can do better than a monkey throwing at a dartboard if you think the sectors are due for some catch up. Personally with the bluechip index so cheap I see little compunction to drop down to the riskier end of the market.

vand wrote:
I was looking for clues that most investors are hurting more than the drawdown in the S&P, and, well, I didn't have to look very hard...

Index        YTD	Drawdown from peak
S&P 500	      7%	-15%
S&P 500EW    -6%	-18%
Russell	     -7%	-33%
FTSE 100     -9%        -9%
FTSE 250     -11%      -31%
FTSE SmCap    -12%	-26%
FTSE AIM    -24%	-52%

Look at the carnage in AIM and Smallcaps!

Isn't this to be expected now that much higher interest rates are testing the viability of many businesses that have grown up on the back of ultra-low rates?

There's a story on the BBC site this morning that seems to confirm this is the case -

Sharp rise in UK firms at risk of going bust, insolvency data shows -

The number of firms in "critical financial distress" jumped by 25% in the last three months, according to insolvency experts Begbies Traynor.

They are defined as having county court judgments exceeding £5,000 against them - often a precursor to going under.

Government data out later is likely to confirm the bleak picture as firms battle higher prices and lower demand. These official insolvency figures are expected to reveal that 2023 is on course to see the highest number of company failures since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009.

Dean Euden, a wine merchant from Cardiff has already wound up his business. "I thought Covid would be the toughest time but actually the harder times came after." he said.

"The cost of living crisis meant people had less money to spend so I closed the shop and went online but there just wasn't the same spending power in the market," he added.

"I couldn't make ends meet, couldn't pay my suppliers, couldn't pay myself that's when I realised it wasn't a viable business any more."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67261798

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Evening All.

Just did my end of month

Year To Date (to31/10/2023): +1.42%
Since Peak (from 31/12/2021): -7.94%
Since First Unitising (30/06/2021): -2.51%

I suppose that's OK - still positive for the year and not in "correction" territory (yet).

Regards, Newroad

I suspect many will be showing improvements in their PF totals this week. I will check the numbers tomorrow.

It looks like the rate decision on Thursday was a big factor. Some big rises on the day.

Friday started off well but it didn't last. Still a long way to go to reach another high.

The bad news is it's going to cost more to buy that slightly smaller yield. It looking like there might be more chances ahead. Things generally looking quite poor and the R word being mentioned.

Good week following the hold in the bank rate. Especially with respect to the investment trust sector. Notably JLEN, SEQI, INPP, HICL, UKW. Will there be a general move towards these high yielders ?

Quite relieved that things have picked up from almost total despair. Decision to deploy cash recently rather than sit on it seems to have been the right thing to do. At least in the short term anyway. I am hoping that the bottom is in or near for infrastructure and property portfolio investment trusts. Next week could well see a reverse, of course.

It’s all a bit negative in here,
A few positive thoughts :

Quality fundamentals still win out. Eg

Target REIT was a steal at the NAV , with solid business model and profit growth. 7% dividend to boot, ex div shortly,
Bought at 72 earlier this week, now 82 and will climb.
Which is another lesson, don’t accept the first quote on illiquid assets , it can be worth several percent to keep asking for a good quote.


The fundamentals of Microsoft and Apple are still good. Although consider BRK as a way to hold Apple,
I wouldn’t dream of holding BoA or chevron, but they are great price to capital and Buffett holds them.

I’ve also bought Lin and Chubb this week / fortnight based on fundamentals.
Sold out of Johnston which is sad. It’s made me 40% but lawyers are circling like vultures.

I’m 33% in gold, 33% in good fundamental equities , 33% in high div , including REIT, bank and insurance high % pref.
A hedge against an equity crash.

It’s been a profitable week.

Gerry557 wrote:Things generally looking quite poor and the R word being mentioned.

I recall that it was around this time of year last year that the UK alone in the G7 was predicted to be in recession by Christmas and would remain in recession for the whole of 2023.

Dicky99 wrote:I recall that it was around this time of year last year that the UK alone in the G7 was predicted to be in recession by Christmas and would remain in recession for the whole of 2023.

Don’t those commentators all love talking britain down.
meanwhile compared to prepandemic levels, britain is 1.8% ahead , better than France and much better than Germany.
Germany is the basket case of Europe.

When listening to IMF, OECD , BoE and others. And Lagarde of the ECB, Just recognise every single one of them missed the inevitability of 2007/8 in reports prior to the crash. They are all useless.

Meanwhile greedy Unions, useless NHS , shirk at home productivity, strikes and coronation holidays all damaged growth.

monabri wrote:

YeeWo wrote:

Code: Select all

     | % PF  | YTD    | Agg XIRR | Held Since
BATS | 12.1% | -26.8% |   -9.06% | 17-May-23
DGE  | 26.5% | -15.7% |    5.16% | 12-Jan-11
HSPX |  2.6% |  12.0% |    3.54% | 17-Aug-23
INCH | 12.0% | -17.9% |   22.81% | 11-Apr-22
REL  | 15.5% |  26.3% |   19.08% | 01-Aug-10
RIO  | 14.0% | -13.1% |    3.71% | 03-Jul-23
ULVR | 14.6% |  -6.4% |    8.45% | 12-Jan-11


- Since 01 Jan 23 (YTD) +7.71% including Dividends received.
- Since 01 Jan 23 I have disposed of Roll Royce banking a large gain, this is probably the reason for the +ve YTD figure.
- Diageo has been invested in mightily over the last couple of weeks, hence the outsized % of portfolio.
- The S&P500 Index ETF (HSPX) was added as an anchor to benchmark everything else against.

I think it might be a good time to top up DGE. It's on my top up list but,as I said in another post elsewhere, it's knowing where to top up or add to first! 26% is a strong position !

Clearly I was wrong!

Golam wrote:Good week following the hold in the bank rate. Especially with respect to the investment trust sector. Notably JLEN, SEQI, INPP, HICL, UKW. Will there be a general move towards these high yielders ?

Another satisfactory week. Each of the quoted investment trusts continues to rise.

Dicky99 wrote:

Gerry557 wrote:Things generally looking quite poor and the R word being mentioned.

I recall that it was around this time of year last year that the UK alone in the G7 was predicted to be in recession by Christmas and would remain in recession for the whole of 2023.

Maybe this time I'm seeing things with my own eyes. People loosing jobs and redundancies. Wilko closing and others struggling or going under. Rates affecting people. Landlords selling up others struggling to pay their mortgages.

How soon before rates drop slightly. It might save a few or those hanging on by their finger nails.

After last week's rise, this week was another down week. This was what I was expecting. A few dividends collected has tapered the drop. Not sure where next week is heading. A bit of a drift until the autumn statement.

The second half of next year is where my eyes are.