The Lemon Fool

Evening All.

Just did my mid-month after the free regular investing day with II today

Year To Date (to 15/11/2023): +6.89%
Since Peak (from 31/12/2021): -2.98%
Since First Unitising (30/06/2021): +2.75%

Looking a lot better and I suppose the recent lurch upwards supports the line of argument that you can't afford to be out of the market for the few really good days without adversely affecting long term performance.

Regards, Newroad

What a difference a few weeks makes...

well, not that much of a difference in the overall scheme of things, but its nice to see our portfolio values going up for a change. With FTSE still only around 7500 and below its 200dma there is still room to rally more before significant resistance

Yes it up a few percent but still not great. Probably the second best few weeks since mid July.

I suppose it might depend on a santa rally continuing the overall or if sentiment allows another 3 weeks of drops.

So what does next week hold. I can't call it I'm afraid so will have to just roll with whatever comes this way.

Totting up all the weekly changes in the PF it's still negative. This does strip out buying and selling and dividends aquired but a medium week might see that negative become a positive.

Looking out of the window, I can't see any swans, black or otherwise but maybe they arrive in the dark of night so it's difficult to spot them.

Gerry557 wrote:
Looking out of the window, I can't see any swans, black or otherwise but maybe they arrive in the dark of night so it's difficult to spot them.

There's a big volcano shaped one in the North Atlantic ...

I am struck by the cognitive dissonance between this board, and the title of this thread.

Is a week an appropriate timescale to review your portfolio on?

Gerry557 wrote:Yes it up a few percent but still not great. Probably the second best few weeks since mid July.

I suppose it might depend on a santa rally continuing the overall or if sentiment allows another 3 weeks of drops.

So what does next week hold. I can't call it I'm afraid so will have to just roll with whatever comes this way.

Totting up all the weekly changes in the PF it's still negative. This does strip out buying and selling and dividends aquired but a medium week might see that negative become a positive.

Looking out of the window, I can't see any swans, black or otherwise but maybe they arrive in the dark of night so it's difficult to spot them.

Maybe Jeremy will give away so much in tax cuts on Wednesday that the markets will throw a wobbly

TUK020 wrote:I am struck by the cognitive dissonance between this board, and the title of this thread.

Is a week an appropriate timescale to review your portfolio on?

It's not inappropriate, some people like to log daily, weekly, monthly and annual movements. Each to his own.

TJH

TUK020 wrote:I am struck by the cognitive dissonance between this board, and the title of this thread.

Is a week an appropriate timescale to review your portfolio on?

In the scheme of things, probably no but then if it's had 3 big down weeks it might be a good tome to add more. If it's been 3 big up weeks I might be tempted to wait a bit longer.

It's not the whole picture but it's definitely a piece or two of the jigsaw. It gives you something to do waiting for the next "How was your 30 year review"

"There's a big volcano shaped one in the North Atlantic ..."

But we know about that one. So it might spoil a planned trip..... Or start a new adventure, larva surfing.

"Maybe Jeremy will give away so much in tax cuts on Wednesday that the markets will throw a wobbly"

Somehow I see Ben Obi-Wan Kenobi waving his hand saying "These are not the tax cuts you are looking for. Liz caused mayhem but Jeremy didn't despite things being worse. I suppose a week in politics is a lot different to a week in the markets.

TUK020 wrote:I am struck by the cognitive dissonance between this board, and the title of this thread.

Is a week an appropriate timescale to review your portfolio on?

All my records are now easily accessible in Google sheets and automatically priced so I do tend to "look at" them regularly, but I restrict "doing" anything (top ups) to monthly cheap dealing day.

I work to annual "actual vs. target" overall income plan, and for a few years used to simply stop trading when forecast income (next twelve months) reached target, usually after 4-6 months of top ups and dividend announcements. I might resurrect this practice next year actually.

Evening All.

I imagine most portfolios are looking a lot better now. Here's mine - today was II's free regular monthly investing day, so it's one of my twice a month updates.

Year To Date (to 20/12/2023): +11.44%
Since Previous Peak (from 31/12/2021): +1.15%
Since First Unitising (30/06/2021): +7.12%

As noted above, a new peak for the portfolio this measurement.

Regards, Newroad

NOTE: Edited to correct date typo

Newroad wrote:Evening All.

I imagine most portfolios are looking a lot better now. Here's mine - today was II's free regular monthly investing day, so it's one of my twice a month updates.

Year To Date (to 15/11/2023): +11.44%
Since Previous Peak (from 31/12/2021): +1.15%
Since First Unitising (30/06/2021): +7.12%

As noted above, a new peak for the portfolio this measurement.

Regards, Newroad

Increase this year same ballpark as above.

Still around 5% below ATH portfolio value of December 2021.

Looking at some key indices (at time of writing) ...

FTSE 100 YTD: +1.13%
FTSE 250 YTD: +2.59%
FTSE 350 YTD: +1.18%
Dow Jones YTD: 12.29%
Nasdaq YTD: +42.93%
S&P 500 YTD: +23.30%

Interestingly, my Pseudo-HYP experiment, which sits outside the earlier portfolio measurement given above, is +11.33% YTD. This compares reasonably to the core portfolio, only just below, but more interestingly, very favourably to the various FTSE indices above. Its investment universe is drawn from the FTSE100.

Regards, Newroad

Newroad wrote:Looking at some key indices (at time of writing) ...

FTSE 100 YTD: +1.13%
FTSE 250 YTD: +2.59%
FTSE 350 YTD: +1.18%
Dow Jones YTD: 12.29%
Nasdaq YTD: +42.93%
S&P 500 YTD: +23.30%

Interestingly, my Pseudo-HYP experiment, which sits outside the earlier portfolio measurement given above, is +11.33% YTD. This compares reasonably to the core portfolio, only just below, but more interestingly, very favourably to the various FTSE indices above. Its investment universe is drawn from the FTSE100.

Regards, Newroad

My HYPish portfolio has done well the last couple of months, up 4.2% in November and a further 4.5% in December for an overall gain of 7.2% year to date so the rest of the year was poor.

I always like to look at how my shares have done over the year:

Epic     Change    Yield 
TW.       42.45%    6.61%
IMI       31.99%    1.56%
TSCO      28.72%    3.78%
ADM       27.00%    3.80%
BA.       26.99%    2.59%
SGRO      18.88%    2.96%
BT.A      12.49%    6.11%
UU.       11.00%    4.26%
SHEL      10.96%    3.86%
SSE        8.15%    3.24%
NG.        6.88%    5.35%
KGF        4.83%    5.01%
LLOY       4.53%    5.31%
BLND       3.72%    5.66%
BHP        2.61%    5.25%
PSON       1.24%    2.30%
LGEN       0.68%    7.56%
GSK        0.53%    3.86%
RIO       -0.09%    5.58%
HLN       -1.62%    1.30%
BP.       -1.66%    4.78%
AV.       -2.53%    7.37%
SMDS      -3.08%    5.78%
PHP       -4.06%    6.30%
IGG       -4.16%    6.03%
RKT       -5.63%    3.44%
AZN       -6.54%    2.24%
TATE      -7.69%    2.94%
ULVR      -9.40%    3.96%
IMB      -12.22%    8.02%
WDS      -16.78%   11.13%
VOD      -19.90%   11.56%
DGE      -21.73%    2.80%
S32      -23.36%    3.83%
BATS     -28.81%    9.88%

Av.Chg     2.01%    4.76%

The other way of looking at things:

This year    Inc Units   FTSE       Acc Units
30-Dec-22         6.12   7,451.74       33.22
20-Dec-23         6.23   7,715.68       35.62
                 1.78%      3.54%       7.22%

So slightly behind the index.

TJH

The interesting thing about the Pseudo-HYP is the constituents' individual performances.

The following refers to "since purchase" rather than any fixed period (I bought most at one a month over the best part of two years). Of the 22, the Unrealised P&L is ...

SGE: +46%
BATS: -28%
VOD: -38%

with the rest in a band between +19% and -5.4% (in common with Terry above, I hold TW., BT.A, UU., SHEL, NG., KGF, BLND, LGEN, GSK, RIO, BP., SMDS )

IIRC, VOD and BATS were the first two purchases, so there will have been two chunky dividend years from each in the meantime, but the saviour is SGE (which wouldn't get into most and perhaps not any HYP's) and to a lesser extent BA. at +17%. Following the methodology (even Sector balance) I bought these to get the "Technology" sector into the Pseudo-HYP (and in that, even BA. is a fudge of sorts - its strict categorisation is an Industrial - but is part of the FTSE Techmark 100).

People may read into the above what they wish.

Regards, Newroad

With a day to go it's looking like another green week. Tomorrow could be a bad day I suppose and ruin Santa's rally.

This might turn out to be the first down week in seven I think.

Santa has gone back to the north pole and there is often a pullout of cash over the weekend. It also fits with my expectations of a fall in the new year.

Last year we had a rise upto February. Not sure what this year will bring but hoping for a dip as I will have a lump of cash coming my way soon needing an investment home.

2024 does start off on a down week. Not a great fall but has broken that winning cycle. If there are another 6 more down weeks it will probably be time to buy something.

Gerry557 wrote:2024 does start off on a down week. Not a great fall but has broken that winning cycle. If there are another 6 more down weeks it will probably be time to buy something.

Could just be selling into the Santa rally. I’ve top sliced some holdings that were looking fully valued over the Xmas period, the latest of which was following Lord Wolfson and selling some Next at £85 yesterday.