Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

A helpful place to also put any annual reports etc, of your own portfolios
doug2500
Lemon Slice
Posts: 657
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 286 times
Been thanked: 245 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#255718

Postby doug2500 » October 3rd, 2019, 8:09 pm

Well the half year is up this weekend, and unless something miraculous happens tomorrow the review will be a car crash!

It will not be a read for anyone with a weak stomach, It feels like pretty much anything which could go wrong has gone wrong.

torata
Lemon Slice
Posts: 521
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 1:25 am
Has thanked: 203 times
Been thanked: 210 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#255808

Postby torata » October 4th, 2019, 10:39 am

doug2500 wrote:Well the half year is up this weekend, and unless something miraculous happens tomorrow the review will be a car crash!

It will not be a read for anyone with a weak stomach, It feels like pretty much anything which could go wrong has gone wrong.


Hello Doug
Possibly I've missed it, but you don't seem to have a benchmark. It might soften the blow.
Or possibly harden it.

torata

monabri
Lemon Half
Posts: 8396
Joined: January 7th, 2017, 9:56 am
Has thanked: 1539 times
Been thanked: 3428 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#255811

Postby monabri » October 4th, 2019, 10:49 am

doug2500 wrote:Well the half year is up this weekend, and unless something miraculous happens tomorrow the review will be a car crash!

It will not be a read for anyone with a weak stomach, It feels like pretty much anything which could go wrong has gone wrong.


Well you sold WEIF in April 19...that was a smart move!

doug2500
Lemon Slice
Posts: 657
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 286 times
Been thanked: 245 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#255821

Postby doug2500 » October 4th, 2019, 11:32 am

I use FTSE Allshare TR as a benchmark. Certainly small cap seems to be hit harder than large but I'm not sure right now how the benchmark has done.

I did sell the fund but still have WPCT, I'll explain why in the review (although I wish I didn't have to!)

doug2500
Lemon Slice
Posts: 657
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 286 times
Been thanked: 245 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#255935

Postby doug2500 » October 4th, 2019, 6:57 pm

Well the scores are in:

Unit prices (based at 100 on 5th April 2017)
Taxed Accounts 107.82
ISA's 126.91
FTSE Allshare TR 107.89

And the % change for the last quarter followed by 6 months
Taxed Accounts -7.5% -7.4%
ISA's -8.5% -3.9%
FTSE Allshare TR -5% -2%

So most of the damage has been in the last 3 months, but it's not as bad as I'd feared, especially on a long term view where my unit prices stand up okay since 2017.

Review to follow.

doug2500
Lemon Slice
Posts: 657
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 286 times
Been thanked: 245 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#255965

Postby doug2500 » October 4th, 2019, 10:16 pm

The Good Bits (bit)
IG Group
I bought quite a lot more of IGG as their TU’s became more positive. This has worked out reasonably well when compared to the wider picture. One of the very few highlights.

The sales:
Zytronic
Sold out straight away on the profit warning. Right thing to do.
Keywords
Top sliced on interims, they were a bit disappointing. Might top up again, or sell out.
Aptitude
Top sliced a small amount because I wasn’t convinced the price would hold up after the return of capital, and I fancied having a small amount of cash available. So far my fears look unfounded.
K3 Capital
I was delighted to buy in June after the TU for 129p but the results were worse than I expected in September and I sold out at 142p. Although the results fell short, the outlook looked okay but I still expected a 25% drop because I’d had a few kickings by then (See below). It’s since gone up.

The Problems
Advanced Medical Solutions
Profit warning. I could have got out at 250p but chose not to. They continued to fall but soon bounced back up and I felt my decision was vindicated. They are now following the normal PW pattern and slowly drifting away.
Burford
There’s been enough written about this. By the time I could get a price it was (I think) 400p and I wasn’t going to sell at that. I always knew it was hard to value and outside my competence but I at least understood it used all cash reinvesting in new cases. I was disappointed that so many people seemed to be wise after the event, I didn’t think Muddy Waters raised anything too suprising myself and decided on balance to ride it out. It’s been quite a ride. I still think at 800p it’s worth a punt.
Somero
I should have just sold out. But I didn’t and now I’m more tempted to buy more at this price. If nothing else I’ll hold for the 8.5% divi.
Sopheon
Another profit warning. Again by the time I could get a price I decided to keep them for that price and so far they’re holding up.
Woodford Patient Capital
Really should have dumped this at the first sign of trouble. Then the second. Then the third. Had they been in an online account I think I would have sold them pronto but they’re certificated. I really miss my CREST account.
Zotefoams
Another profit warning. Again decided to hold rather than sell after a 35% drop. Still not cheap so I hope this is not a mistake.

Disappointing
Bioventix
Was strongly priced but has just drifted away by 10% since it’s high.
FDM
Probably won’t get any news until Jan but it’s just drifting away.

General Musings
Markets are tough right now. Especially small cap, but maybe they were overpriced before?
Is business tough? I’ve never had so many profit warnings.
It’s tough to be a buy and hold, long only, mainly small cap, non-market timing investor this year.
My confidence has taken a dent, I’m finding it tougher than 10 years ago, maybe because there’s more money involved now? Maybe because I was inexperienced then but have some experience (and confidence, and ego?) now.
Take overs seem to be on the up but it’s years since I had one.
I really, really miss my CREST account. But not enough to pay £500 for one. It’s the perfect balance of ownership, rights, speed and flexibility.
The benefit of doing this is the unit prices are not as bad as I’d feared and that’s cheered me up. Those dividends accumulating in the background must help.

TheMotorcycleBoy
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3245
Joined: March 7th, 2018, 8:14 pm
Has thanked: 2222 times
Been thanked: 587 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#256237

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » October 6th, 2019, 5:14 pm

Good report Doug, thanks for posting. We have some stocks in common, alas, some of the problematic AIMS:

AMS reduced position by 70%
BUR completely sold off at about 770ish
ZYT reduced position by 50%

Matt

doug2500
Lemon Slice
Posts: 657
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 286 times
Been thanked: 245 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#345987

Postby doug2500 » October 7th, 2020, 7:09 pm

I didn’t get round to an annual review in April as I seemed to be busier than ever, no furlough for me!

Truth be told it was also pretty depressing in the markets at that time so I might be guilty of shouting in the good times and keeping quiet in bad.

The positive thing is my portfolio seems to be less volatile than my benchmark (FTSE all share TR) generally not falling as far, and recovering quicker and going on to new highs.

I’ve done very little trading and remained nearly fully invested throughout the turbulence (3.6% cash). Having recently subscribed to the Buffetology Smaller Companies Trust, and to a lesser extent Tellworth British Recovery and Growth, I am very nearly fully invested now (2.1% cash). Ideally I don’t think I would be but I’m not great at selling. If you're wondering what I subscribed to the IT's with it was mainly dividend money as I've not faired too badly on that front.

Unit prices are since April 2017, starting at 100p

Code: Select all

                 05.04.20  12 month change  05.10.20  6 month change
Taxed Portfolio  94.98     -18.4            121.13    27.5
ISA's            114.28    -13.5            148.22    29.7
Benchmark        83.28     -24.3            94.4      13.3



The ISA unit price is at an all time high (which I would never have expected!) and the taxed portfolio is only a whisker off it. Fundsmith has again underpinned a lot of the performance in the ISA’s. It can’t last forever.

I’m not quite motivated enough to do the work to produce my full portfolio tonight, maybe another time.

Changes are slight: Bought a bit of Fevertree, back into K3C, more Somero and have started buying Argentex. Then the aforementioned IT’s.

It’s been an interesting spell for sure.

Hope you're all keeping well.

doug2500
Lemon Slice
Posts: 657
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 286 times
Been thanked: 245 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#346816

Postby doug2500 » October 10th, 2020, 8:47 pm

Code: Select all

                                                  %age   2019    2018  2017  2016  2015
Name
Fundsmith                                         23.0%  19.8%  17.3%   18%   16%   15%
Advanced Medical Solutions                  AMS   8.2%   12.9%  13.7%   12%   10%    8%
Xp Power                                    XPP   6.2%   3.5%   3.2%     1%
Bioventix                                   BVXP  5.8%   5.7%   4.2%     3%    1%
Diploma                                     DPLM  5.3%   4.0%   3.9%     4%    3%    4%
Smithson Investment Trust                   SSON  3.9%
Aptitude Software                           APTD  3.7%   4.3%   5.4%     4%    2%    2%
James Halstead                              JHD   3.7%   3.5%   3.5%     5%    5%    4%
Ig Group                                    IGG   3.6%   1.2%
Somero Enterprises Inc                      SOM   3.4%   2.8%   2.2%     2%
Focusrite                                   TUNE  3.3%   1.8%   2.0%
Fundsmith Emerging Equities Trust           FEET  3.3%   3.7%   3.9%     4%    3%    4%
Zotefoams                                   ZTF   2.9%   4.4%   4.2%     3%    3%    3%
Standard Life Smaller Co's Funds                  2.8%   2.4%   2.4%     3%    3%    3%
Tracsis                                     TRCS  2.2%   2.6%   2.3%     2%    3%    2%
British American Tobacco                    BATS  2.2%   2.7%   4.0%     6%    6%    7%
CASH                                              2.1%   4.1%   7.7%     3%    6%    3%
Finsbury Growth & Income Trust              FGT   1.9%   2.0%   1.9%     2%    1%
Legal & General                             LGEN  1.7%   2.7%   2.6%     3%    3%    4%
Montanaro European Smaller Companies Trust  MTE   1.5%   1.0%
Fevertree Drinks                                  1.4%
Jarvis Securities                           JIM   1.3%   0.9%
Burford Capital                             BUR   1.3%   3.1%   2.6%
Treatt                                      TET   1.1%   0.7%   0.8%     0%
MFM Slater Growth                                 1.0%   0.9%   1.0%     1%    1%    1%
Keywords Studios                            KWS   1.0%   1.0%
Argentex                                          0.8%
Fdm (holdings)                              FDM   0.6%   0.6%
K3 Capital                                        0.4%
Schroder Uk Public Private Trust            WPCT  0.4%   1.2%   1.3%     2%    2%    2%
Lloyds Banking                              LLOY  0.1%   0.3%   0.4%     0%    1%    1%
Polypipe                                    PLP   0.1%   0.1%   0.1%


The performance of Fundsmith is something else really. It's had no new money for years, it domination is purely through outperformance.

Speaking of which underperformance has sorted the problem of AMS being a bit big! Results aren't great but I wonder if the threat of inheritance tax benefit removal has had an effect?

Otherwise I just need a bit of a trim at the bottom end, but I've been saying that for years but don't get round to it! And increase my postion sizing for new holdings. Although this year maybe isn't the time to do that when uncertainty is higher than normal.

The stars are Fundsmith, Focusrite and Montanaro European Smaller Companies. Sobering that 2 are collectives.

Villians are The ex-Woodford trust, AMS and Burford (which I have high hopes for now with the new listing)

scrumpyjack
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4814
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:15 am
Has thanked: 606 times
Been thanked: 2675 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#346861

Postby scrumpyjack » October 11th, 2020, 8:46 am

I wouldn't invest in Burford as I don't think it is a business where the PI can make a sensible judgement on the value and long term future of the company. About half its market cap is represented by the value it puts on what it may get from just the Peterson/Eton Park case £773 m!

I can't see what the barriers to entry are in this business - any firm of lawyers could get into it, and to multiply the one off possible payback on a single huge case into a P/E - can't see a reliably repeatable flow of earnings?

Maybe I'm just more risk averse as I get older, but I'll stick with SMT

doug2500
Lemon Slice
Posts: 657
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 286 times
Been thanked: 245 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#346897

Postby doug2500 » October 11th, 2020, 11:26 am

I certainly agree that BUR is hard to value, probably the hardest thing in the portfolio to get a handle on. There's plenty of online discussion about BUR and there's nothing new I can add, but I do think the new listing could be a catalyst for the share price to recover. It would never be a large part of the portfolio, it's too risky for that.

I'm not daft enough to criticise SMT but I don't think it's low risk, that big holding in tesla is either genius or a disaster waiting to happen. Hard to see it somewhere in the middle.

SMT is one of those investments that I've watched grow for years while always thinking it looked too expensive.

doug2500
Lemon Slice
Posts: 657
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 286 times
Been thanked: 245 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#375185

Postby doug2500 » January 9th, 2021, 2:43 pm

Afternoon All,

I thought I'd give you a wee update for interest. Suprisingly my unit values have reached all time highs so it looks like my 'do very little' approach to the spring troubles worked out okay. Because of this approach the absolute figures are also at an all time high, it's not just a theoretical high by some quirk of unitisation.

While listening to a PI world year review one of the guests said the FTSE wasn't challenging enough as a benchmark any more so I thought I'd add a global one too. I decided to use Vanguard FTSE All World as a proxy. It is more challenging but I'm still ahead. I would argue that by my definition of risk I'm also less risky for more return but I accept that's debatable. Certainly my drawdowns so far are not as severe as the All share anyway, and recover quicker and further. So far.

Down to 1.8% cash now. Bought a bit more Argentex and K3C since october and that's it. Fundsmith has done well again but the rest of my ISA has kept up with it this time.

The 12 month returns are:
Shares: 7.4%
ISA's: 16.6%
All Share -9%

If I combine my 2 portfolio's it works out at about 12.5% for the year. This year!!! The effects of compounding are also really becoming apparent, 12.5% is becoming a meaningful amount of capital.



I saw someone had posted an excel spreadsheet into a post somewhere, would that have just been an image? It looked good anyway.

Doug

monabri
Lemon Half
Posts: 8396
Joined: January 7th, 2017, 9:56 am
Has thanked: 1539 times
Been thanked: 3428 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#375338

Postby monabri » January 9th, 2021, 11:15 pm

doug2500 wrote:I saw someone had posted an excel spreadsheet into a post somewhere, would that have just been an image? It looked good anyway.

Doug


Posting an image is pretty easy. Windows allows you to create a JPG file ( snip tool) which can be uploaded to "Post Image" website. (See post 362087).

viewtopic.php?p=362087#p362087

doug2500
Lemon Slice
Posts: 657
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 286 times
Been thanked: 245 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#375815

Postby doug2500 » January 11th, 2021, 11:48 am

Testing.......

Image

My own Spreadsheet graph, but obviously Excel is Microsoft's!

doug2500
Lemon Slice
Posts: 657
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 286 times
Been thanked: 245 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#492883

Postby doug2500 » April 8th, 2022, 5:48 pm

April 2022, 5 Years of Unitising

So after the previously posted all time high I've gone a bit quiet.....

TBH it's not that things went pear shaped, I just got busy. And to prove it here's my current position and as you'll see it's nothing to boast about:

Image

It's been a bruising quarter since everything looked rosy at the start of this calendar year. My bias to smallcaps has bitten me. Hard. Also lack of miners, oilers etc.

My pf hasn't changed much, still no balance and too big a tail but most of them are new holdings where I'm hoping to scale up as long as the investment case holds up. I've had a bit of a reverse midas touch lately which isn't helping. Investments in Polar, Gamma and Intercede have not gone well, nor have top ups in Argentex, K3C and Jarvis. I'm particularly keen to top up Gamma if news flow is positive.

I've not had a take over for years and have pretty much finished culling legacy holdings so new cash isn't that easy to come by any more which is slowing down the scaling up of the tail.

I've changed one of my benchmarks from VWRL to SSAC which is an all world ETF acc in GBP. I have two separate streams to unitise - taxed accounts (shares) and ISA's. For no reason really. I do actually have holdings in my SIPP of some of my smaller positions so the small sizes aren't as bad as they look.

And this is my portfolio as it stands, the heatmap part shows the 12 month change in share price only. This isn't really fair as some pay a chunky dividend, but I'm lazy.

Image

doug2500
Lemon Slice
Posts: 657
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 286 times
Been thanked: 245 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#492888

Postby doug2500 » April 8th, 2022, 5:57 pm

For clarity I should also say that if I blend my two portfolios I've had a 1.5% return for the tax year. I'm sitting on a 14% drop for 2022 calendar year so far!

Pendrainllwyn
Lemon Slice
Posts: 304
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:53 pm
Has thanked: 162 times
Been thanked: 200 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#492911

Postby Pendrainllwyn » April 8th, 2022, 7:11 pm

You own a slice of some good companies in my humble opinion. Keep the faith.
Argentex has been battered. I don't own but it seems like good value to me at these levels.

Pemdrainllwyn

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8209
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 913 times
Been thanked: 4097 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#493162

Postby tjh290633 » April 9th, 2022, 7:40 pm

doug2500 wrote:For clarity I should also say that if I blend my two portfolios I've had a 1.5% return for the tax year. I'm sitting on a 14% drop for 2022 calendar year so far!

Good heavens. I am up +5.95% on the year to date, and at an all-time high. The FTSE100 is up +3.86% and the HIX is up 9.85%, presumably being awash with miners and oils.

I would be most unhappy with that sort of performance. Currently the perfomance of my shares so far this year is:

Epic     Change    Yield 
S32 37.33% 1.75%
BHP 36.44% 3.23%
BA. 35.25% 3.42%
SHEL 33.63% 2.94%
AZN 25.95% 1.97%
RIO 25.47% 3.69%
PSON 24.30% 2.68%
BATS 20.40% 6.74%
BP. 18.46% 4.22%
TATE 17.05% 18.09%
NG. 15.68% 4.06%
VOD 15.16% 5.99%
BT.A 12.65% 3.99%
GSK 10.71% 2.93%
SSE 10.19% 4.58%
UU. 7.12% 3.70%
IMB 3.77% 8.38%
AV. 3.75% 5.22%
IGG 3.38% 5.24%
MARS 3.25% 0.00%
CPG -0.09% 0.85%
BLND -0.11% 8.74%
PHP -0.13% 4.30%
DGE -0.38% 1.85%
SGRO -4.25% 3.16%
RKT -6.05% 13.74%
TSCO -6.42% 3.36%
LLOY -6.73% 4.51%
LGEN -9.65% 6.92%
ULVR -10.34% 4.17%
ADM -18.50% 10.89%
SMDS -19.70% 4.25%
KGF -23.59% 4.91%
TW. -24.33% 6.62%
IMI -24.71% 1.84%
MKS -33.71% 0.00%
Av.Chg 4.76% 4.80%


TJH

doug2500
Lemon Slice
Posts: 657
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 286 times
Been thanked: 245 times

Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#493206

Postby doug2500 » April 9th, 2022, 10:24 pm

Very different portfolio though, many ways to skin a cat.

At the end of 2021, 3 months ago, I was up almost 15% for the year so far and every account at an all time high.

I try not to pay too much attention to short term swings, I only do full valuations quarterly. My long term performance is what counts and while the ftse 100, all share tr and SSAC have all humped me over the quarter, I'm still ahead over 5 years and for years before I started unitising.

I think it likely that my small cap biased portfolio will be more volatile but hope it will also be more profitable long term.


Return to “Portfolio Management & Review”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 4 guests