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ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

A helpful place to also put any annual reports etc, of your own portfolios
EssDeeAitch
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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#195760

Postby EssDeeAitch » January 23rd, 2019, 7:32 am

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:CAKE is still showing as a share price of 423.5p, based on its close before the shares were suspended. They are in all likelihood going to be delisted next month. However, I will need to do a unit update next month - perhaps before the delisting - including a portfolio valuation. Technically, although they are not tradable, 423.5p still represents the market price for valuation purposes. In reality, they're worthless. I'm debating whether to include them at 423.5p in the portfolio value or not. It may just be a case of writing them down 100% in March instead of February.

I sold CAKE in my other portfolio, at 416p in August 2018. I wish I'd done the same here!

Views?

Best wishes

Mark.


I am not an accountant but all that I employed would advise me to take bad or even potentially bad news to book immediately.
You know they are worthless so write them off now is my opinion. Bad luck with that one BTW

Dod101
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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#195770

Postby Dod101 » January 23rd, 2019, 8:24 am

I agree with EssDeeAitch. You are kidding yourself if you continue to show them at any valuation. Of course since I assume you are not a public company you can do anything you like.

Dod

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#195906

Postby doug2500 » January 23rd, 2019, 6:07 pm

They're only worth what you can get for them IMO. While they were suspended you could argue the toss but surely now they are worthless?

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#195926

Postby PinkDalek » January 23rd, 2019, 7:12 pm

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:CAKE ... It may just be a case of writing them down 100% in March instead of February.


Another reason to "rebalance" now or in Feb:

Pursuant to AIM Rule 1, if a replacement Nominated Adviser is not appointed within one month, the admission of the Company's securities will be cancelled on AIM. The Company has no current intention of appointing a replacement Nominated Adviser.

From https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 43225.html [22 January 2019]

ADrunkenMarcus
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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#195935

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » January 23rd, 2019, 7:42 pm

The question is not whether there's any value in CAKE equity - there won't be IMHO.

The issue is how to treat the holding for valuation purposes and therefore unitisation.

For valuations in November, December and January I simply took the last quoted price before suspension, knowing it was likely way too high but not what a realistic alternative would be. Now that we know, as PinkDalek indicated, that the shares are likely to be de-listed in a month's time when a broker hasn't been appointed (i.e. late February - after my February valuation but before March's), my options are to either do the same in February as preceding months or do it in March when they've officially been de-listed.

I don't think it makes a huge difference either way. However, writing them down 100% in February is probably the conservative approach.

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#195937

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » January 23rd, 2019, 7:51 pm

The share price is now showing at 0p / n/a in my account, so that solves the dilemma!

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#196554

Postby doug2500 » January 25th, 2019, 10:03 pm

I notice Standard life smaller cos trust wrote down their pat val holding to 0 for their end of nov valuation.

https://uk.standardlifeinvestments.com/ ... _Trust.pdf

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#196818

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » January 27th, 2019, 10:56 am

I hold SLS in my pension. I had sold my CAKE holding in that portfolio but I hadn't realised SLS held it too.

On the issue of my dividend growth portfolio, I calculated the accumulation unit price with CAKE at 0p and the portfolio doesn't look too bad at all. CAKE was a small position so even a 100% capital loss can be absorbed. It didn't pay much of a dividend so the dividend per unit won't be affected much, either.

The dividend increases so far, comparing this tax year to last, look reasonable to me:



* Compares total dividend (specials were paid in both years). Ordinary dividend grew by less.

Kone and AstraZenca held their dividends in Euros and Dollars, respectively, so the exchange rates will impact the full year payments due in March.

I expect my full review will follow in May for the current year.

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#223257

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » May 20th, 2019, 8:02 pm

My review for 2018-19 (1 May 2018 to 30 April 2019).

TRADES

In August 2018, I sold Patisserie Holdings in my SIPP for reasons detailed in my SIPP thread. Sadly, I didn’t sell them in my dividend growth portfolio. Silly billy!

In October 2018, I sold Paddy Power Betfair amid concerns about its competitive position, deteriorating returns on capital (even adjusted for goodwill) and tightening sector regulation. The proceeds went into topping up Kone, Diageo and Diploma.

In January 2019, Patisserie Holdings went bust and subsequently delisted.

Early in April 2019, I reduced the AstraZeneca holding, taking advantage of the recent strength in the share price. This had the effect of reducing the dividend concentration as it accounted for a big proportion of dividend income. (It’ll also act as a drag on income as it was a decent yielder.) Some of the proceeds were taken out of the portfolio as cash, while the remainder went into initiating a holding in Mastercard. It is a quality company with almost 63.6% ROCE; 43.5% CROIC; and 55.9% EBITDA margin (2018 Sharescope data).

I added to Acorn Income Fund to help bolster income (5.8% yield and trading at a discount to NAV), trimmed M&G Recovery and put the proceeds (and remaining fractional cash) into Marlborough Multi Cap Income.

CURRENT HOLDINGS (% OF PORTFOLIO)



TOTAL RETURN - INDEX




The accumulation unit price fell 1.3% on the year compared to rises in the benchmark indexes of between 0.5% for the FTSE 250 TR or 5.2% for the FTSE All World TR in $. (The difference between a small decline and a small rise can be accounted for by Pattiserie Holdings going bust!)

After all that, the accumulation units are comfortably ahead of the FTSE 100, 250 and All Share but just behind the FTSE All World.

TOTAL RETURN – INDIVIDUAL HOLDINGS

Spirax Sarco Engineering’s total return was 45%, followed by Diploma at 35.4%, Diageo at 27.8% and Unilever at 18% rounding out the top four. At the bottom, the two Domino’s Pizza holdings performed very badly and DP Poland had a shocker. DP Poland was one of the largest holdings as at April 2018 (14.1% of the portfolio), so its subsequent 70% fall (taking it down to 4.6% of the portfolio) is single-handedly responsible for the portfolio’s underperformance in 2018-19.

If not for DP Poland’s fall, I estimate the accumulation unit price would have risen 8.7% instead of falling 1.3%. Having almost 15% of the portfolio in a share that fell 70% had a significant negative impact, but I’m actually pleasantly surprised that strong returns from smaller portfolio holdings did so much to bring it back. Spirax has risen through the ranks of the largest holdings, while Diploma, Diageo and Unilever have been consistent solid performers.

I should add Patisserie Holdings, which returned almost minus 100% (it paid a tiny dividend – who knows with what! – in July 2018) but was, fortunately, only a small proportion of the portfolio.

(ex. Kone and Mastercard)


INCOME:

The ordinary dividend income per unit for the second year (May 2018 to April 2019) came to 3.41 pence, plus a special dividend of 0.17 pence per unit (Victrex), representing (for the normal dividends) a ‘yield on cost’ of 3.41% and a current yield of 2.86%. The ‘real’ dividend yield on cost is about 3.2%.

Dividend growth (ordinary dividend income per unit) came to 5.4%.

The portfolio has returned exactly 10% of the initial income unit price in dividends (ordinary and special).

To date, about 65% of returns came from capital appreciation and 35% from dividends.

RUNNING COSTS

The running costs, based on the portfolio’s capital value at the end of the period, were higher than last year’s: annual cost (inc dealing) rose from 0.33 to 0.41% and annual cost (ex dealing) rose from 0.27 to 0.33%.


HOLDINGS FROM PURCHASE TO DATE:



What will the next year bring? Who knows.

I will seek to top up MasterCard to a more meaningful position over time.

On the dividend front, I suspect the ordinary dividend per unit for next year may be roughly flat or a little better compared to this year. A substantial proportion of the portfolio’s dividends are paid in dollars or euros, so a strengthening of the £ would be a drag. In Finland, the government looks set to raise the dividend tax from 30 to 35%, reducing Kone’s net dividend payment.

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#223263

Postby doug2500 » May 20th, 2019, 8:42 pm

Hi Mark,

Great write up.

How many spreadsheets do you use to track so much info? Or have you managed to create one large multi purpose sheet?

Doug

ADrunkenMarcus
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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#223265

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » May 20th, 2019, 9:00 pm

Thanks Doug.

Pretty much all the above comes out of a single spreadsheet with a few tabs, many of which draw data from a single point of entry. The unitisation, once set up, is really pretty easy.

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#223811

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » May 22nd, 2019, 9:59 pm

Doug

I forgot to include the operating margin and ROCE data (calculated manually using actual operating profits (no exceptionals/adjustments):

Operating Margin:



Return on Capital Employed:



The data excludes DP Poland, which is too early in its development for meaningful statistics IMHO.

Overall, I think the companies have pretty good operating margins and returns on capital employed.

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#266748

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » November 24th, 2019, 12:57 pm

Dividends declared and/or paid for the 2019-20 financial year, compared to 2018-19, are doing OK.

Standard Chartered continues to grow its dividend as it gradually restores the cut and abolition from 2015. Foreign currency dividends from AstraZeneca and Mastercard ($), Kone and Unilever (Euro) will be impacted by exchange rate movements, as is always the case. However, it appears that Finland's increase in the dividend withholding tax from 30 to 35% will only take effect from 2021, so I have another Kone dividend due in March 2020 at the old, lower tax rate.



What holds back dividend per unit growth for the portfolio as a whole is that a large proportion of the dividend income is from slower growing dividends, such as those from Murray International and AstraZeneca.

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#281580

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » February 1st, 2020, 12:32 pm

Purely for the sake of curiosity, I looked up the total return data for my current holdings (as at 1 January 2020) covering 31 December 2009 to 1 January 2020. I couldn't seem to find Acorn Income Fund, Kone or Mastercard. Meanwhile, DP Poland did not float until later in 2010 and Marlborough Multi Cap Income did not launch until 2011.



The same data on an annualised basis:



M&G Recovery was appalling. It returned less in ten years than Diploma or Spirax Sarco have returned in the last year for me! An annual total return of 3.5% CAGR is not much better than inflation and I imagine the average FTSE 100 dividend yield alone would have been more than that.

It is pleasing to note that all my other current holdings did better than both the FTSE 100 and FTSE All Share and all, barring Reckitt Benckiser and Murray International, outperformed the FTSE All World ex UK. The two top performers, Diploma and Spirax Sarco, are definitely on much higher ratings than they used to be. However, if we trust that their business results will be good in the 2020s then they may 'burn off' some of their current valuation and still perform well.

Dominos Pizza has devalued as the multiple has come down by almost half on an earnings basis. Nonetheless, strong underlying business performance until the last few years enabled it to deliver 14.5% CAGR. Diageo and Unilever have done well, actually outperforming Rotork which has not had a good decade by its own historical standards. Diageo and Unilever have both fallen significantly from recent highs, nonetheless they have been solid performers.

Let's see what the next decade brings.

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#281585

Postby monabri » February 1st, 2020, 1:01 pm

Let's hope we're all here to cogitate on the numbers! ;)

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#293144

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » March 22nd, 2020, 11:03 am

Since I posted it in another thread, I thought I'd add YTD and performance since inception here. Let's see what the coming months bring!



Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#298454

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » April 6th, 2020, 8:57 pm

No trades had been made since 1 May 2019, however new cash added to the portfolio near the end of March 2020 presented an opportunity to top up MasterCard today as the market presented me with a share price 28% lower than it had been less than two months earlier: I quadrupled the original position today so that it stands at 10.4% of the portfolio's capital value. Fortunately, I placed the trade as soon as New York opened because the share price then rose 12%. There's still some cash available, representing 1% of the portfolio, and I hope to add more over the months ahead. I suspect we're not near the bottom, but in the long run it doesn't matter much IMHO.

It may well turn out to be hopelessly optimistic, but I am hopeful that, for the time being at least, the following can maintain their dividends:

Maintainers (79% of income):



Acorn and Murray have reserves as investment trusts.

Cutters (21% of income) - cuts or suspensions announced so far:



Full year review to follow mid May 2020.

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#298579

Postby Wasron » April 7th, 2020, 11:05 am

Regarding one of those who have suspended dividends, Renishaw were on my local news last night as they’re working seven days a week to build ventilators.

https://www.renishaw.com/en/renishaw-ra ... nts--45406

Wasron

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#298728

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » April 7th, 2020, 7:27 pm

Thanks Wasron, an interesting article on Renishaw.

Victrex's update this morning was quietly encouraging IMHO:

H1 trading

Trading for the first half year has been solid and in line with expectations:

· Solid volume growth, including a strong finish in March

· Good growth in Automotive and Medical, with a stable performance in Aerospace, Electronics and Value-Added Resellers, offset by weakness in Energy

· H1 2020 inventory c£100m, with high sales stock across US, Europe and Asia; appropriate raw material inventory in the UK and supply chain functioning well

Strong financial position

Victrex is part of multiple supply chains, many of which are supporting critical applications, for example in Medical...

Proactive actions on COVID-19

The safety and well-being of Victrex employees continues to be our highest priority. We established a COVID-19 committee at the start of 2020, with a proactive approach and a range of contingency plans already implemented:

· People: we continue to follow governmental or state guidance wherever we operate

· Customers: we continue to serve customers from home offices, with all of our global employees' homeworking, wherever roles are not production related

· Essential industry: the UK government defines Chemicals as an essential industry with essential workers, with Victrex also having a long-standing history in supporting many critical and "life-sustaining" applications, particularly in Medical

o UK operations: reflecting government guidance and requirements in many "life-sustaining" applications, we are continuing to produce aligned to demand, supplemented by high buffer inventory if required

o US operations: we continue to operate on an ongoing modified basis, defined as being a 'life-sustaining' organisation in several states


· Ventilators: in addition to companies we already serve, we are supplying materials for Ventilators or related equipment to a number of global companies

Outlook

Although trading has remained in line with expectations year-to-date and the third quarter has shown early signs of a solid start, including some normal demand returning across parts of Asia, the macro-economic and end-market outlook over the coming months is very uncertain, particularly for Europe and the US...


They did say future cash conservation actions could include dividends, however it does have a strong balance sheet and almost had enough to declare a special dividend for 2019, so I am hopeful they will be able to maintain it.

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#298753

Postby Wasron » April 7th, 2020, 9:22 pm

Victrex have held up extremely well over the last month.

In the Chemicals sector I added Johnson Matthey yesterday after their recent weakness. Seems like a good opportunity to pick up a quality business that’s embracing the challenges of climate change.

Wasron


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