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Pensana Rare Earths

skewwy
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#405796

Postby skewwy » April 21st, 2021, 10:44 am

Across yesterday and today there were a large number of sales, all around £30-50k, all similar round numbers so looks like a lot of 'sell on news' activity from traders possibly. It has stabilised now around 7% down.

Consensus seems to be that the RNS 'merely' had numbers that were in line with expectations. So although it de risks investors it was to some extent priced in.
It will probably be financing that will now move the share. The RNS also talks about Angola (via their wealth fund) increasing their interest/holding. I suspect not all see that as good news.

Dynamo1
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#405806

Postby Dynamo1 » April 21st, 2021, 11:31 am

I think share price fall will be short term as the brokers charged with targeting the institutions (Liberum) will start to do their business. I'm not sure if the Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund wanting to increase their stake is good or bad. On reflection, I would prefer some major new institution as regulars will know I have some mistrust of African politics. Anyway, no hint of trouble so far and long may that continue. At the end of the day, it looks like there will be very little dilution for shareholders and the potential rewards are enormous.
I was glad that they made certain comparisons with Lynas and MP Materials, the thing is we have the ability to scale up relatively easily whereas the others may struggle. First things first, Pensana must now get digging at both Longonjo and Saltend. Plenty of news to come.

Dynamo1
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#405865

Postby Dynamo1 » April 21st, 2021, 3:53 pm

https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/pensan ... he-future/

Pensana (LSE: PRE)

163p (160p- 165p)

Mkt Cap: £142m

Next Results: Y/e June est Oct

A World-Class Sustainable Supply of critical Rare Earths for the Green economy in Humber

The new economy needs electric vehicles and wind turbines and these and other strategic green economy industries need tonnes of permanent magnets. Pensana are developing a rare earth mine in Angola, which has an estimated 20 years plus mine life with an annual production of 12,500 tonnes of rare earth oxides. This includes 4,500 tonnes of strategically critical magnet metal rare earth oxides, which is forecast to be 5% of the projected world demand in 2025.

Today Pensana announced its Mine to Market Business Plan, to establish a rare earth separation facility in Saltend, Humber which will be the world’s first major separation facility established in over a decade and which would be one of only three major producers located outside China. The planned US$125m facility would create over 100 direct jobs in processing purified rare earth sulphates, which would be imported from the Company’s state-of-the-art Longonjo mine in Angola.

Once established this Mine to Market strategy will produce wallet expanding returns such as; a 2-year payback, a 57% IRR, a NPV ( Net Present Value) of $2.3billion and EBITDA of $359m per year. These are, however, projections and subject to funding. The plan does not, however envisage any funding issues; Saltend is already receiving grants from the UK Government’s £1 billion Automotive Transformation Fund, founded to support the national transition to electric vehicles. Pensana has already received indications of potential financial backing from its major shareholder, the Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund, as well as approaches from a wide range of financial institutions..

Before the funding comes clearly into focus the current mkt cap of £145m will seem cheap at less than 8% of the NPV so the risk does seem to be missing the upside. A strategic Buy

Dynamo1
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#407017

Postby Dynamo1 » April 26th, 2021, 10:40 am

https://treo.substack.com/

Well, for an alternative perspective see within the above link. This guy (from the Rare Earth Observer) really has it in for Pensana; from tax to radioactive thorium. Some interesting points that hopefully the Company will address at some stage including the absence of the feasibility study (really frustrating...).

The shareprice has languished since the "Business Plan" was released and I have to question why they delayed this just for the Saltend planning decision. We were on a roll and most of the content was ready in January.

I still hold all my shares in the expectation of a re-rating sometime soon. Cheers D1

spasmodicus
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#407103

Postby spasmodicus » April 26th, 2021, 1:43 pm

Mention the word "Thorium" and everyone starts donning lead underpants and running around like headless chickens.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2004/1050/thorium.htm

The reality is that thorium is another waste product that has to be managed properly by the rare earth mining industry, as it frequently occurs in association with rare earth minerals, especially in the more concentrated deposits. Some basic information is contained in here
https://www.epa.gov/radiation/technologically-enhanced-naturally-occurring-radioactive-materials-tenorm

Thorium has been suggested as an alternative fuel for nuclear reactors and has a number of advantages over Uranium in this role. However, imo it is unlikely to catch on due to the general fear and mistrust surrounding the nuclear industry. The EV industry will undoubtedly just greenwash their thorium problem away.

Lets hope that PRE can come up with a plausible plan to deal with it.

S
(still holding PRE)

Dynamo1
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#407336

Postby Dynamo1 » April 27th, 2021, 11:44 am


Dynamo1
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#407351

Postby Dynamo1 » April 27th, 2021, 12:29 pm

Bullet points from discussion:

Business Plan reflects large ore body
Huge demand for product
China sells US$10k pt carbonate / concentrate
PRE product at today's prices would sell at US$90k pt from separation plant
Sell to equipment manufacturers in Europe
Very important for the UK economy
Government interest
Equinor talks / study
Car manufacturers seeking certified product
Vertically integrated - complete control of supply chain
China - no idea how it's been processed
Consumer driven and legitimate
Urbanisation in China will drive huge demand
China won't be exporting rare earths
Not looking for acquisitions, but will process other miners product at saltend
Lynas US$4bn, MP Materials US$6bn PRE £300m see 10xuplift in shareprice by time of production
Newsflow 1). Financing 2). Build 2022 3). Commission 2023
PRE is at Front End Engineering Design stage (FEED)
All permits, approvals and licences are in place
No problem re financing, there are plenty of opportunities around.

Decent pitch for the institutions, good returns within 4 year timescale (2025).

GrahamPlatt
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#407354

Postby GrahamPlatt » April 27th, 2021, 12:51 pm

China plan to put 60% of their population into 9 mega cities - each with a population greater than Germany - in the next ten years.

Dynamo1
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#407592

Postby Dynamo1 » April 28th, 2021, 10:39 am

Pensana have updated their presentation, some of which was touched on by Paul Atherley in his latest interview.

https://pensana.co.uk/wp-content/upload ... yTXdpI_bgQ

Plus you can have a look around the proposed Longonjo Rare Earth facility curtesy of the Wood Group.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56_gIrpKr9o

All interesting stuff, Longonjo facility looks to be far more complex than I imagined.

Dynamo1
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#411727

Postby Dynamo1 » May 13th, 2021, 7:01 pm

Shares in Issue Price £ MCap Exch rate US$ Mcap
203,645,822 1.28 £260,666,652 1.40 US$364,933,313

Shareprice has drifted lower since my last report. I agree with those who state that this is because the Company have been a little shy in providing the Feasibility Study and advising how the "January" breaking ground in Angola is going.

At 1.28 today, I think we are pretty close to the bottom. No doubt the Company is undertaking a fund raise, this shouldn't be too difficult as the amounts involved are comparatively small compared to the potential prize. I understand that everything is falling nicely into place.

I stumbled across a decent review by Joel Deakin today, which echo's the above his review can be found at:

https://cube.investments/joels-resource ... -race-pre/

Note JD holds shares in Pensana so views could be tainted...bit like mine lol.


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