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BEV replacement battery cost.

Passion, instruction, buying, care, maintenance and more, any form of vehicle discussion is welcome here
AF62
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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473090

Postby AF62 » January 14th, 2022, 3:06 pm

quelquod wrote:
AF62 wrote:
BullDog wrote:However, I am not talking about that. I am referencing the energy suppliers smart EV charging tariffs with dynamic pricing. That's where the energy supplier decides when your vehicle is recharged, not you. I am not an expert here, but when I recently spoke to a couple of suppliers about maybe using their smart EV tariff, it became clear you can only do so on the proviso your charger is also smart and in addition is of the same technology/brand of "smartness" that the energy suppler supports. I happily charge a PHEV using a PodPoint charging point. But I cannot presently find a smart EV tariff with dynamic pricing that is compatible with my PodPoint. As I said, it's a very immature market. Things will change, I guess.


The straightforward non-dynamic pricing tariffs exist if you search, for example Octopus Go which gives you a lower rate cost between 00:30 and 04:30 and no 'smart' EV charger required if you set the car's charging timer.


However taking Octopus Go (as you refer to as an example) their ‘on-peak’ GO tariff for electricity is over 50% higher than their standard tariff in my area so depending on your usage it may be of no advantage.


Is it?

My understanding were Octopus were not taking on new customers via the internet (other than for Go) so did you call them for the tariff they are offering new customers, as I assume you are not comparing to old tariffs.

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473106

Postby Arborbridge » January 14th, 2022, 4:22 pm

quelquod wrote:
AF62 wrote:
BullDog wrote:However, I am not talking about that. I am referencing the energy suppliers smart EV charging tariffs with dynamic pricing. That's where the energy supplier decides when your vehicle is recharged, not you. I am not an expert here, but when I recently spoke to a couple of suppliers about maybe using their smart EV tariff, it became clear you can only do so on the proviso your charger is also smart and in addition is of the same technology/brand of "smartness" that the energy suppler supports. I happily charge a PHEV using a PodPoint charging point. But I cannot presently find a smart EV tariff with dynamic pricing that is compatible with my PodPoint. As I said, it's a very immature market. Things will change, I guess.


The straightforward non-dynamic pricing tariffs exist if you search, for example Octopus Go which gives you a lower rate cost between 00:30 and 04:30 and no 'smart' EV charger required if you set the car's charging timer.


However taking Octopus Go (as you refer to as an example) their ‘on-peak’ GO tariff for electricity is over 50% higher than their standard tariff in my area so depending on your usage it may be of no advantage.


Indeed. I calculate that it more or less breaks even on my low mileage, because the day rate was so much higher than my current fix. Naturally, that will all change in June when my fix runs out, so I will search around again. By then, I hope to have sorted my smart meter problem, but I may hope in vain judging by the reactions I am getting from my energy supplier. ("We won't come to check it because it works so therefore isn't faulty. It just doesn't communicate!")

Arb.

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473108

Postby AF62 » January 14th, 2022, 4:25 pm

Arborbridge wrote:By then, I hope to have sorted my smart meter problem, but I may hope in vain judging by the reactions I am getting from my energy supplier. ("We won't come to check it because it works so therefore isn't faulty. It just doesn't communicate!")

Arb.


If it works then you should be getting bills showing consumption every 30 minutes, and if you don't it isn't.

If it isn't then I would start the complaints process now with your supplier and move on to OFGEM if they fail to resolve within eight weeks - https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/information-co ... k-operator

Energy companies hate being referred to the regulator for complaints they have failed to resolve.

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473115

Postby JohnB » January 14th, 2022, 4:35 pm

Of course its actually gas prices that have rocketed. Electricity prices are strongly coupled, so have also shot up, petrol/diesel is loosely coupled (there are still oil fired power stations coming back on stream to increase demand), so has risen less.

But high electricity prices incentivise renewable providers to accelerate their roll-outs of wind turbines and solar panels, decoupling electricity from gas. So over the lifetime of a BEV electricity prices will stabilise. But so much depends on how governments adjust their tax regimes. Will VAT disappear from electricity, or rise to 20%. Will a fuel duty escalator come back hard when there is a cost-effective alternative, or will road-pricing be introduced only for BEVs to claw back the lost revenue.

Regarding 80/20% charge levels, battery manufacturers already have capacities that actually go beyond 100% and drop below 0, but protect you from the bad consequences with software, in the same way the quoted capacity of your fuel tank is less than the actual capacity. As battery capacities rise, some manufacturers will keep pushing the range envelope with their quoted figures, and you need to know that driving to those limits will be bad. Other manufacturers will be more conservative, and their ranges will be lower but vary less during the lifetime of the car. And no-one will trust VW.

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473120

Postby BobbyD » January 14th, 2022, 4:49 pm

JohnB wrote:And no-one will trust VW.


Pity you went and ruined it. VW's sales and profits hit new records after 2015, so this is obviously either untrue or irrelevant.

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473219

Postby Arborbridge » January 15th, 2022, 7:25 am

JohnB wrote: And no-one will trust VW.


That doesn't seem to fit the facts. The ID3 has prove very popular, with sales figures rocketing, so much so they are booking 2023 deliveries now and refusing stock order from showrooms. Yes, this is due to shortage of chips, but nevertheless they have taken a huge number of orders and people are willing to wait up to a year for delivery.

Actually, after the "troubles" I would have thought VW would be moving heaven and earth to rebuild their reputation and, perhaps counter-intuitively, it could be the best time to trust them.

Arb.

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473248

Postby quelquod » January 15th, 2022, 10:31 am

“ And no-one will trust VW.”

Hardly any effect at all I’d say. Everyone that I know is all too aware that car mileage and emissions figures are fictitious and that you can’t even do a model to model comparison based on them. Fuel costs are only 1 and for most people not the major component of a new car’s running cost.

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473358

Postby Arborbridge » January 15th, 2022, 6:20 pm

AF62 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:but it isn't always so simple. In my case (and no doubt others) my current provider cannot receive readings from my SMETS2 meter because, they say, the mobile signal is too weak - therefore there's no possibility of a cheap rate.


Arqiva who cover the north of England and Scotland for SMETS 2 apparently have 99.55% coverage and Telefonica who cover everywhere else have 99.25% so not many people are in your situation - https://www.smartme.co.uk/technical.html


I just wanted to thank you for this - I've only just had time to look at it! Very useful, and I have certainly learnt a couple of things which have given me ammo for talking to my supplier. I've checked my meters and they are definitely SMETS2, and the communications hub has the required green lights merrily blinking correctly.
But, I receive a "not found" message for my meters on the DCC. I can't even get an affirmative to a simple question to Scottish Power: "Have my meters been registered with the DCC".

I get the feeling that they are just being remiss - someone could have cured this problem any time in the past two years. I assume that as I moved in just as Covid struck, this non-urgent problem felt off the bottom.

Arb.

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473362

Postby AF62 » January 15th, 2022, 6:28 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
AF62 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:but it isn't always so simple. In my case (and no doubt others) my current provider cannot receive readings from my SMETS2 meter because, they say, the mobile signal is too weak - therefore there's no possibility of a cheap rate.


Arqiva who cover the north of England and Scotland for SMETS 2 apparently have 99.55% coverage and Telefonica who cover everywhere else have 99.25% so not many people are in your situation - https://www.smartme.co.uk/technical.html


I just wanted to thank you for this - I've only just had time to look at it! Very useful, and I have certainly learnt a couple of things which have given me ammo for talking to my supplier. I've checked my meters and they are definitely SMETS2, and the communications hub has the required green lights merrily blinking correctly.
But, I receive a "not found" message for my meters on the DCC. I can't even get an affirmative to a simple question to Scottish Power: "Have my meters been registered with the DCC".

I get the feeling that they are just being remiss - someone could have cured this problem any time in the past two years. I assume that as I moved in just as Covid struck, this non-urgent problem felt off the bottom.

Arb.


Have you checked your meter here - https://smartmetercheck.citizensadvice.org.uk/ (or is that what you meant by the DCC).

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473399

Postby Arborbridge » January 15th, 2022, 10:01 pm

AF62 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
AF62 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:but it isn't always so simple. In my case (and no doubt others) my current provider cannot receive readings from my SMETS2 meter because, they say, the mobile signal is too weak - therefore there's no possibility of a cheap rate.


Arqiva who cover the north of England and Scotland for SMETS 2 apparently have 99.55% coverage and Telefonica who cover everywhere else have 99.25% so not many people are in your situation - https://www.smartme.co.uk/technical.html


I just wanted to thank you for this - I've only just had time to look at it! Very useful, and I have certainly learnt a couple of things which have given me ammo for talking to my supplier. I've checked my meters and they are definitely SMETS2, and the communications hub has the required green lights merrily blinking correctly.
But, I receive a "not found" message for my meters on the DCC. I can't even get an affirmative to a simple question to Scottish Power: "Have my meters been registered with the DCC".

I get the feeling that they are just being remiss - someone could have cured this problem any time in the past two years. I assume that as I moved in just as Covid struck, this non-urgent problem felt off the bottom.

Arb.


Have you checked your meter here - https://smartmetercheck.citizensadvice.org.uk/ (or is that what you meant by the DCC).


That's right: I used that citizens advice link and it returned meter not found.

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473410

Postby Howard » January 16th, 2022, 12:19 am

Thanks to Hallucigenia for the post linked below which suggests both BP and Shell are making strides to roll out fast charging stations. If the reports are correct, these stations are going to be very profitable, particularly those with mini supermarkets and coffee shops on site.

see viewtopic.php?p=473142#p473142

regards

Howard

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473411

Postby Redmires » January 16th, 2022, 1:29 am

The neighbour has a new Polestar and He gave me a lift today. Very nice. We had a discussion about all things electric and the charging process etc. I quipped that the every time he stops for a recharge he will buy a coffee (and cake) in the 30 minute wait, and if there's a family in the car it will cost around £15 - £20 for every stop. He found this quite funny.

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473455

Postby scotview » January 16th, 2022, 10:37 am

We are very pleased with our ID.3 but battery range is an issue. We have decided that we will need an inexpensive second (petrol) car for the foreseeable future, so next week I will have a look at upgrading our manual Dacia Duster to the 2022 Duster model. For around £20K it comes with 6 speed auto, multi view camera, heated seats, 8" media nav, auto air con, full sized spare wheel and improved ground clearance for any minor off road I do when fishing. What's not to like.

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473479

Postby Howard » January 16th, 2022, 12:14 pm

Redmires wrote:The neighbour has a new Polestar and He gave me a lift today. Very nice. We had a discussion about all things electric and the charging process etc. I quipped that the every time he stops for a recharge he will buy a coffee (and cake) in the 30 minute wait, and if there's a family in the car it will cost around £15 - £20 for every stop. He found this quite funny.


I'm guessing a Polestar BEV won't be charged for 30 minutes very often. It's an expensive car, which can be charged very quickly at the chargers being installed by Shell and BP. And presumably your neighbour has a home charger? With a BEV with a real range of more than 250 miles (like a Polestar) we've only once used a public charger in nearly a year of motoring. It was a fast charger used for fun and took around 20 minutes to add around 100 miles.

I guess there are families who regularly go for trips of more than 350 miles. Presumably they welcome a coffee and loo break on the journey?

It's probably sensible to keep ones diesel or petrol car if one can't charge at home and one frequently drives on trips of more than 350 miles.

With the development of batteries moving fast, it's likely that a real range of 400 miles will be available soon. Our BEV will cover around 300 miles driven gently and its battery was probably designed five years ago.

Bad news for coffee shops? ;)

regards

Howard

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473877

Postby Arborbridge » Yesterday, 6:01 pm

Howard wrote:
Redmires wrote:The neighbour has a new Polestar and He gave me a lift today. Very nice. We had a discussion about all things electric and the charging process etc. I quipped that the every time he stops for a recharge he will buy a coffee (and cake) in the 30 minute wait, and if there's a family in the car it will cost around £15 - £20 for every stop. He found this quite funny.


I'm guessing a Polestar BEV won't be charged for 30 minutes very often. It's an expensive car, which can be charged very quickly at the chargers being installed by Shell and BP. And presumably your neighbour has a home charger? With a BEV with a real range of more than 250 miles (like a Polestar) we've only once used a public charger in nearly a year of motoring. It was a fast charger used for fun and took around 20 minutes to add around 100 miles.

I guess there are families who regularly go for trips of more than 350 miles. Presumably they welcome a coffee and loo break on the journey?

It's probably sensible to keep ones diesel or petrol car if one can't charge at home and one frequently drives on trips of more than 350 miles.

With the development of batteries moving fast, it's likely that a real range of 400 miles will be available soon. Our BEV will cover around 300 miles driven gently and its battery was probably designed five years ago.

Bad news for coffee shops? ;)

regards

Howard


Your last sentence is a real worry for anyone considering buying a BEV now. Indeed, I have several friends who are refusing to buy simply because the technology is changing so fast. What price on the second hand market for an eight year old BEV? People are trying to say they will hold their price well, but not if they get left behind by a swathe of new developments. Who wants a phone with old technology? - you can't give them away.

No wonder folk are still buying ICE cars for as long as they can.

Arb.

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473885

Postby JohnB » Yesterday, 6:39 pm

While BEVs are improving fast and encourage people to buy s/h ICEs while they wait, its hardly a reason to buy new ICs, as if the current generation of BEVs nearly match ICs, then the residual value for both will plummet as better models come along, and they will be BEVs, as no manufacturer will be developing new IC ranges now.

If you currently think that a BEV is £5k too expensive in lifetime costs than the equivalent IC for your needs, buy the IC, but be aware that the price differential will reverse over the next few years, either as cost to you driving it into the ground, or usage and part-exchange on something else.

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473891

Postby richlist » Yesterday, 7:26 pm

I think it will be a long time before ICE vehicle drop significantly in value.
* Half the population park their vehicles on the streets and have nowhere to charge them......that's gonna take years to resolve.
* Most people can't afford the premium for an electric car.
* There are lots of issues to resolve like commercial vans & being able to tow.

Progress is very slow.

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473906

Postby Howard » Yesterday, 8:20 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Howard wrote:
Redmires wrote:The neighbour has a new Polestar and He gave me a lift today. Very nice. We had a discussion about all things electric and the charging process etc. I quipped that the every time he stops for a recharge he will buy a coffee (and cake) in the 30 minute wait, and if there's a family in the car it will cost around £15 - £20 for every stop. He found this quite funny.


I'm guessing a Polestar BEV won't be charged for 30 minutes very often. It's an expensive car, which can be charged very quickly at the chargers being installed by Shell and BP. And presumably your neighbour has a home charger? With a BEV with a real range of more than 250 miles (like a Polestar) we've only once used a public charger in nearly a year of motoring. It was a fast charger used for fun and took around 20 minutes to add around 100 miles.

I guess there are families who regularly go for trips of more than 350 miles. Presumably they welcome a coffee and loo break on the journey?

It's probably sensible to keep ones diesel or petrol car if one can't charge at home and one frequently drives on trips of more than 350 miles.

With the development of batteries moving fast, it's likely that a real range of 400 miles will be available soon. Our BEV will cover around 300 miles driven gently and its battery was probably designed five years ago.

Bad news for coffee shops? ;)

regards

Howard


Your last sentence is a real worry for anyone considering buying a BEV now. Indeed, I have several friends who are refusing to buy simply because the technology is changing so fast. What price on the second hand market for an eight year old BEV? People are trying to say they will hold their price well, but not if they get left behind by a swathe of new developments. Who wants a phone with old technology? - you can't give them away.

No wonder folk are still buying ICE cars for as long as they can.

Arb.


Arb, you are right.

As a BEV driver and enthusiast, I’d suggest that one could classify current BEVs as Short Range and Medium Range cars.

It isn’t sensible to compare them with Long Range ICE cars. So a Short Range would be less than 200 miles on a good day and an Medium Range would be 300 miles or less on a good day.

I’ve driven a new Tesla Model 3 “Long Range” and it wouldn’t do 300 miles on a motorway in wet and windy weather. So, to me, it’s a Medium Range car.

Most ICE cars would be Long Range cars. I can’t remember driving an ICE car with a range less than 350 miles. Our petrol Golf would cover 400 miles driven on motorways.

Any current BEV with a battery of 50kWh or less would surely be a Short Range car. Maybe ideal as a second car or a town car?

If you agree with this broad classification, and think that batteries will develop fairly fast over the next two years then new BEVs with a real range of 400 miles might be launched. They will surely justify a premium and be the choice for drivers who want a BEV and regularly drive long distances.

Richlist is probably right in his forecast for the longevity of ICE cars. Drivers living outside big cities (with penalties for ICE cars) and without access to a home charger would be unlikely to buy BEVs.

Major car manufacturers are generally trying to cater for both ICE (including hybrids) and BEV drivers at the moment, so they must see a future for both types, at least in the short term.

Redmire’s neighbour with an expensive BEV could be a company car driver and subsidised by the taxpayer to the tune of many £’000. The cost of a coffee or two will be irrelevant to him! Will all the current company BEVs come onto the market in a couple of years and push down prices? Who knows?

I should declare that we lease our BEV and, given the relatively low cost, the leasing company obviously believe that it will sell for a good price in three years.

regards

Howard

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473931

Postby 9873210 » Yesterday, 9:57 pm

Howard wrote:
Most ICE cars would be Long Range cars. I can’t remember driving an ICE car with a range less than 350 miles. Our petrol Golf would cover 400 miles driven on motorways.


Most of the ICE cars I have driven have had an unrefueled range of less than 300 miles in practice. Starting with a 1970 mini that could not do Gloucester-Manchester-Gloucester without refueling.

But that's largely irrelevant. There are plenty of petrol stations where I can get another 250 miles of range in 5 minutes, and in the few places there aren't some five-gallon jerry cans would offer a solution.

In practical terms the range of an ICE is not limited by fuel. Until rapid and ubiquitous charging is available the "range of ICE cars" and "range of BEV" mean different things.

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Re: BEV replacement battery cost.

#473947

Postby Arborbridge » Yesterday, 10:43 pm

JohnB wrote:While BEVs are improving fast and encourage people to buy s/h ICEs while they wait, its hardly a reason to buy new ICs, as if the current generation of BEVs nearly match ICs, then the residual value for both will plummet as better models come along, and they will be BEVs, as no manufacturer will be developing new IC ranges now.

If you currently think that a BEV is £5k too expensive in lifetime costs than the equivalent IC for your needs, buy the IC, but be aware that the price differential will reverse over the next few years, either as cost to you driving it into the ground, or usage and part-exchange on something else.


Perhaps rumours of the demise of ICEs is premature.
They will be sought after for the next 20 years as reliable and economic vehicles, well tried and trusted. They will also attained scarcity value as manufacturing slows down and stops. This keep their prices up, while the current generation of BEVs with their short range and somewhat pioneering feel will have their value slashed as designs bother better and cheaper are launched. They might even by made redundant overnight by hydrogen cars (though I personally doubt this will happen quickly) Who now can sell an old Nokia phone? - who will want a first or second generation BEV where you worry if there's enough energy to get to your destination, and which has slightly cranky software - software which might go the way of mobile phones with built in redundancy. Or worse, a few models further on: "Sorry, support for this car will cease next year, unless you pay us a £500 pa fee for updating". And if you don't we will just switch it off.

Keep that ICE on the driveway or better, in the garage tucked up - you might need it!

Arb.


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