Giles Coran on electric cars

[Alaric]

Like I said, nobody credible claims that BEV's are currently an ideal replacement for every ICE use case.

Isn't that what politicians legislating to outlaw the sale of ICE vehicles are claiming? Maybe not an ideal replacement, but compulsory replacement.

I would have thought hybrids, particularly the self charging versions, could be a more optimal solution, They solve the range problem as well as the problem of lack of access to home charging. I think they are to be banned as well.

[BullDog]

Like I said, nobody credible claims that BEV's are currently an ideal replacement for every ICE use case.

Isn't that what politicians legislating to outlaw the sale of ICE vehicles are claiming? Maybe not an ideal replacement, but compulsory replacement.

I would have thought hybrids, particularly the self charging versions, could be a more optimal solution, They solve the range problem as well as the problem of lack of access to home charging. I think they are to be banned as well.

2035 I believe. Presently I think a PHEV is a good idea. The best of a less than ideal situation. Most of my mileage is electric (short journeys) but with no range anxiety on longer journeys.

[BobbyD]

Like I said, nobody credible claims that BEV's are currently an ideal replacement for every ICE use case.

Isn't that what politicians legislating to outlaw the sale of ICE vehicles are claiming? Maybe not an ideal replacement, but compulsory replacement.

Are they legislating to ban the sale of non-electric cars as of today, or are they legislating to mandate that all additions to the national fleet after some point in the future are electric?

In cases where such legislation has been passed, and it hasn't in the UK, it's the latter isn't it?

So the capabilities of BEV's today aren't relevant, it's what they will be capable of at that point in the future.

The combustion engine has well over a century of serious and sustained refinement behind it. It's a well harvested development cycle picked dry over the years. Modern BEV's are in their infancy, and still picking the low hanging fruit. Improvement is constant. Strangely everytime emissions regs compel they take up more of the market slack a whole new generation of BEV's arrives unbidden on the market. Watch 24/25 for the next flurry. A small market lacked diversity, but as their market share increases so do the options available to the consumer. Now there are pick ups, and even <<<<Warning gratuitous Buzz shot>>>>:



- https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/volkswage ... w-pictures

IF BEV adoption is a pig in the UK, it won't be the car companies who are at fault.

[Alaric]

Are they legislating to ban the sale of non-electric cars as of today, or are they legislating to mandate that all additions to the national fleet after some point in the future are electric?

In cases where such legislation has been passed, and it hasn't in the UK, it's the latter isn't it?.

It's the latter of course, Politicians are putting their faith in as yet undeveloped technology and in finding solutions to problems that aren't really technological such as how you charge cars which don't have dedicated private parking.

If it isn't possible to recharge an electric vehicle with the same convenience as it takes to refuel an ICE vehicle and with the same range as the ICE vehicle, it's step backwards as far as ease of use is concerned. If politicians want to ban personal transport, let them say so and see how that fares in an election.

[BullDog]

Are they legislating to ban the sale of non-electric cars as of today, or are they legislating to mandate that all additions to the national fleet after some point in the future are electric?

In cases where such legislation has been passed, and it hasn't in the UK, it's the latter isn't it?.

It's the latter of course, Politicians are putting their faith in as yet undeveloped technology and in finding solutions to problems that aren't really technological such as how you charge cars which don't have dedicated private parking.

If it isn't possible to recharge an electric vehicle with the same convenience as it takes to refuel an ICE vehicle and with the same range as the ICE vehicle, it's step backwards as far as ease of use is concerned. If politicians want to ban personal transport, let them say so and see how that fares in an election.

Not going to happen. If would mean politicians would have to be honest. Something they simply aren't capable of.

[BobbyD]

It's the latter of course, Politicians are putting their faith in as yet undeveloped technology and in finding solutions to problems that aren't really technological such as how you charge cars which don't have dedicated private parking.

The solutions aren't entirely untechnical, although they are massively political and logistical.

If only they were the people with the power to incentivise and ensure the development of the necessary infrastructure...

If it isn't possible to recharge an electric vehicle with the same convenience as it takes to refuel an ICE vehicle and with the same range as the ICE vehicle, it's step backwards as far as ease of use is concerned.

On that single metric for some people, for some period of time.

For some people charging their electric vehicle is already so much easier. Get home. Plug it in. Leave. So even that isn't that simple.

And yes, being wealthier means having to make less compromises. It has always been so, and will always be so. Not having to make compromises is a pretty good definition of being wealthy...

If politicians want to ban personal transport, let them say so and see how that fares in an election.

I'm not sure which is wilder deviation from reality, that politicians want to ban private transport or that they actually campaign honestly and transparently.

[doolally]

If it isn't possible to recharge an electric vehicle with the same convenience as it takes to refuel an ICE vehicle and with the same range as the ICE vehicle, it's step backwards as far as ease of use is concerned. If politicians want to ban personal transport, let them say so and see how that fares in an election.

Not going to happen. If would mean politicians would have to be honest. Something they simply aren't capable of.

At the moment, I don't see that any politician wants to ban personal transport. Reduced choice in personal transport may be an undesired consequence of the necessary move away from ICE. I suspect that technological advances in BEV will minimise this problem,
doolally

[Lootman]

If it isn't possible to recharge an electric vehicle with the same convenience as it takes to refuel an ICE vehicle and with the same range as the ICE vehicle, it's step backwards as far as ease of use is concerned.

On that single metric for some people, for some period of time.

For some people charging their electric vehicle is already so much easier. Get home. Plug it in. Leave. So even that isn't that simple.

Recharging at home sounds easy when you say it like that. And it is feasible for those who live in suburbia or rural areas with a driveway or garage.

But what about probably most of London, and a good number of residents of other major UK cities, who live in terraced houses or blocks of flats, and have to park on the street? Is each off-street parking space going to have its own charging point? (Personally I hope so as my way to play the EV fad is to hold shares in ChargePoint (CHPT). But I digress.)

This is a non-starter for the millions of people who do not conveniently have garages and/or do not want to live in the burbs or boonies. Luckily I am old enough to never have to worry about ICE vehicles being outlawed. I will never own or drive an EV. But what about the rest?

[AF62]

If it isn't possible to recharge an electric vehicle with the same convenience as it takes to refuel an ICE vehicle and with the same range as the ICE vehicle, it's step backwards as far as ease of use is concerned.

On that single metric for some people, for some period of time.

For some people charging their electric vehicle is already so much easier. Get home. Plug it in. Leave. So even that isn't that simple.

Recharging at home sounds easy when you say it like that. And it is feasible for those who live in suburbia or rural areas with a driveway or garage.

But what about probably most of London, and a good number of residents of other major UK cities, who live in terraced houses or blocks of flats, and have to park on the street? Is each off-street parking space going to have its own charging point? (Personally I hope so as my way to play the EV fad is to hold shares in ChargePoint (CHPT). But I digress.)

This is a non-starter for the millions of people who do not conveniently have garages and/or do not want to live in the burbs or boonies. Luckily I am old enough to never have to worry about ICE vehicles being outlawed. I will never own or drive an EV. But what about the rest?

Actually for most people recharging at home is even easier than that - Get home and do nothing, because the range of most new BEVs is sufficient to do a week or more motoring for most people and so they only need charging once a week or so.

As for urban dwellers the logistics of charging are easily solved by installing fast chargers in locations that people routinely park their cars anyway - workplaces, supermarkets, retail parks, gyms, etc. A 100kW charger is going to have the car full before you have finished your supermarket shop, gym workout, or film.

The difficult part to fix is the difference in cost between home and non-home charging.

Even now with new higher electricity prices home charging is cheap - 10p kWh including 5% VAT (on the specific EV electricity tariffs) but non-home charging is many multiples of that at somewhere between 50p kWh and £1 kWh and comes with 20% VAT.

10p kWh is the equivalent of petrol at 22p per litre, assuming 40mpg, but £1 is £2.20 a litre - so yes it is a problem for urban dwellers, but not the actual problem most perceive it to be.

[BobbyD]

As for urban dwellers the logistics of charging are easily solved by installing fast chargers in locations that people routinely park their cars anyway - workplaces...

You don't even need a fast charger in an office car park, or staff parking spots.

I suspect the difficult bit may well frequently be resident in local council offices, Westminster and National Grid's connections department.

[BullDog]

As for urban dwellers the logistics of charging are easily solved by installing fast chargers in locations that people routinely park their cars anyway - workplaces...

You don't even need a fast charger in an office car park, or staff parking spots.

I suspect the difficult bit may well frequently be resident in local council offices, Westminster and National Grid's connections department.

I suspect the difficult bit will often be that the existing cables, transformers and locally installed electricity supply infrastructure simply won't be of large enough capacity to serve every single car owner with a charging point. And absolutely no chance of the infrastructure being in place by 2030 when it hasn't even been thought about, never mind being planned and installed.

[AF62]

I suspect the difficult bit will often be that the existing cables, transformers and locally installed electricity supply infrastructure simply won't be of large enough capacity to serve every single car owner with a charging point. And absolutely no chance of the infrastructure being in place by 2030 when it hasn't even been thought about, never mind being planned and installed.

The National Grid would disagree with you - https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/jo ... ctric-cars

[BullDog]

I suspect the difficult bit will often be that the existing cables, transformers and locally installed electricity supply infrastructure simply won't be of large enough capacity to serve every single car owner with a charging point. And absolutely no chance of the infrastructure being in place by 2030 when it hasn't even been thought about, never mind being planned and installed.

The National Grid would disagree with you - https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/jo ... ctric-cars

National Grid has nothing to do with local distribution infrastructure.

Some larger houses are already having to have 3 phase supplies installed. It's not sustainable across most of the domestic infrastructure as it presently stands.

[bungeejumper]

National Grid has nothing to do with local distribution infrastructure.

Some larger houses are already having to have 3 phase supplies installed. It's not sustainable across most of the domestic infrastructure as it presently stands.

Not just larger houses, I'd imagine. We were recently thinking of installing an electric boiler in a commercial premises, and the expert word from the power company was that any boiler over 12 kw would require 3 phase if it was to operate with any kind of a margin for routine things like switching the kettle on. Never mind charging a couple of EVs for the tenants. So we stuck with our 100 amp fuse and cancelled the boiler.

How much would a 3 phase connection cost? Oooh, said the power company, it might be anywhere between £1,200 and £30,000, depending on how close the cables came to our particular property, but they wouldn't know until they started digging. This was on a main road in a mid-sized town. Not an encouraging prospect for anybody in a less urban location.

BJ

[BullDog]

National Grid has nothing to do with local distribution infrastructure.

Some larger houses are already having to have 3 phase supplies installed. It's not sustainable across most of the domestic infrastructure as it presently stands.

Not just larger houses, I'd imagine. We were recently thinking of installing an electric boiler in a commercial premises, and the expert word from the power company was that any boiler over 12 kw would require 3 phase if it was to operate with any kind of a margin for routine things like switching the kettle on. Never mind charging a couple of EVs for the tenants. So we stuck with our 100 amp fuse and cancelled the boiler.

How much would a 3 phase connection cost? Oooh, said the power company, it might be anywhere between £1,200 and £30,000, depending on how close the cables came to our particular property, but they wouldn't know until they started digging. This was on a main road in a mid-sized town. Not an encouraging prospect for anybody in a less urban location.

BJ

Indeed. I am guilty of over simplification. Many houses that want to charge an EV or two, run a heat pump, an electric oven, electric shower, washing machine ........ Will need three phase supplies to do so. That's one heck of a problem for just about every street and housing estate in the country.

One more common example, we have a relative who lives in a city centre apartment development with maybe 500 underground parking spaces. When every parking space wants a 7kw or higher charger and everyone else in all the other underground parking lots in the city wants one too...... Where is the infrastructure going to come from?

As far as I am aware, nobody is thinking about this kind of stuff but it's absolutely fundamental to moving the economy towards full electrification.

To be crystal clear, none of that has anything to do with National Grid.

[88V8]

We were recently thinking of installing an electric boiler in a commercial premises, and the expert word from the power company was that any boiler over 12 kw would require 3 phase ...

Digression...
Really??? ... and yet this, 41,000 BTU, is a modest domestic electric boiler of the size that those with gas will be obliged to install, and at the same time those wanting a new car will be obliged to adopt EVs.
Our little cottage with its storage heaters already presents more than 12 kw of heating load.

If it were to be remotely feasible - nationwide electric boilers + EVs - there should be a huge network upgrade project already on the go, but what the politicos are actually thinking about is the next election, so they don't want to think about suchlike tedia and especially not about the unaffordable cost on top of already unaffordable electricity prices.

V8

[9873210]

Indeed. I am guilty of over simplification. Many houses that want to charge an EV or two, run a heat pump, an electric oven, electric shower, washing machine ........ Will need three phase supplies to do so. That's one heck of a problem for just about every street and housing estate in the country.

There is no technical need for three phase at these power levels. Almost all newish US or Canadian homes have 48kW or more service on split phase. More than a few have 96kW without needing three phase. Three phase is needed only if you want to run largish motors without a switching power supply, and nobody would install such a thing these days.

The advantage of increasing the current on single phase is that it can be done incrementally*, as has been done continually since Tesla and Edison, when domestic service was barely able to handle a couple of (incandescent) light bulbs.

* For example splitting distribution circuits instead of replacing all the single phase wiring.

[DrFfybes]

One more common example, we have a relative who lives in a city centre apartment development with maybe 500 underground parking spaces. When every parking space wants a 7kw or higher charger and everyone else in all the other underground parking lots in the city wants one too...... Where is the infrastructure going to come from?

As far as I am aware, nobody is thinking about this kind of stuff but it's absolutely fundamental to moving the economy towards full electrification.

There are plenty of people thinking about it.

Then they will draft some proposals, which will be costed, debated, and proposed into planning regs for new build, probably from about 2030 onwards.

Meanwhile the existing housing portfolio will be as well equipped to cope with BEV as much of it equipped to run on heat pumps.

I mentioned on another thread that Electricity is currently circa 10% of our total energy use. The supply system is going to need a whole lot more work and investment to cope with that sort of demand increase, battery storage and time shifting is going to play quite a big part in that, certainly in the early years..

[9873210]

I would have thought hybrids, particularly the self charging versions, could be a more optimal solution, They solve the range problem as well as the problem of lack of access to home charging. I think they are to be banned as well.

A pure hybrid is an ICE car with an electric transmission. A PHEV that is never plugged in is an ICE vehicle.

Hybrids offer improved fuel economy, which may be useful in the short term but is at best a bandaid in the long term.

[bungeejumper]

We were recently thinking of installing an electric boiler in a commercial premises, and the expert word from the power company was that any boiler over 12 kw would require 3 phase ...

Digression...
Really??? ... and yet this, 41,000 BTU, is a modest domestic electric boiler of the size that those with gas will be obliged to install, and at the same time those wanting a new car will be obliged to adopt EVs.
Our little cottage with its storage heaters already presents more than 12 kw of heating load.

Similarly off-topic, but yes, we're singing the same song, V8. To put it differently, a 12 kw electric boiler would soak up almost 50 amps, which would leave barely enough capacity (on a 100 amp fuse) for a hot shower, never mind an EV or three.

And yes, your computations for a gas boiler look about right to me. A typical household gas boiler kicks out between 20 and 40 kw, which gives some sort of indication of the hill that electric central heating still has to climb. (Although, in fairness, electric boilers are a bit more heat-efficient than gas - my heat loss calcs suggested that 10 kw would in fact be fine for 75 square metres of floor space.)

If it were to be remotely feasible - nationwide electric boilers + EVs - there should be a huge network upgrade project already on the go, but what the politicos are actually thinking about is the next election, so they don't want to think about suchlike tedia and especially not about the unaffordable cost on top of already unaffordable electricity prices.

I couldn't disagree! But returning to the car issue, it's a problem for the owners of rental properties. If you've got an old residential building that's divided into four flats, will you be called irresponsible (or worse) if they can't all get enough juice for all their cars whenever they need it? It seems logical that a hefty electricity set-up will eventually be regarded as a minimum liveable standard for any property. But where's the public planning for this oncoming catastrophe?

BJ