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Will electric cars take over?

Passion, instruction, buying, care, maintenance and more, any form of vehicle discussion is welcome here

What proportion of NEW cars in the UK do think will be electric by 2030

Less than 10%
3
4%
10-30%
18
21%
30-60%
35
42%
60-90%
20
24%
over 90%
8
10%
 
Total votes: 84

tjh290633
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#304765

Postby tjh290633 » May 1st, 2020, 11:53 am

didds wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
But more seriously, most milk floats changed to diesel Transits 20 years ago didn't they? With special beefed up starter motors IIRC.



Not roind hyere it seems. Less than 20 years ago I was a milkman for a summer and the fleet was all electric

didds

They are here, as Milk & More have gone all electric, having been previously diesel vans.

TJH

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#304788

Postby DrFfybes » May 1st, 2020, 12:53 pm

JohnB wrote:The poll is not about electric cars now, but in a decade's time. Then the batteries will give the same range as fuel tanks, charging infrastructure will be in place and faster than now, and reliability and vehicle life should exceed ICE cars. Total lifetime cost will depend on petrol vs electric prices, but is likely to in favour of electric cars because of government regulation.

Hybrid cars are losing traction already, and hydrogen is not gaining it. What will take time is replacing the ICE stock, as people keep them for 15 years.

Compare the original 2011 Leaf with current models and run the improvements forward 10 years.


I agree, except about the better "Vehicle life".
Most current cars die from rust or some uneconomical electrical component failing (the BMW I-drive can cost as much to replace as some of the cars it is in). Rustproofing mught get better, but will still be a problem, and as for trying to get a replacement touchscreen for a 20 year old tesla.....

Bminusrob wrote:I am really struggling with this question. I have an excellent diesel car which is coming up for 10 years old. Touch wood, it is extremely reliable, and apart from a little bit of rust, it is in excellent condition, and best of all, I really like it. I have had it from new, and promised myself a new car as a present to myself on reaching retirement age (65 at the end of last year; 66 at the end of this year).

[...]

The end result is that I will either keep my current car for several more years, or buy a decent secondhand car as an interim. (There was a really interesting article in The Telegraph yesterday on secondhand cars, which got me to look at the Infiniti Q30, which I quite like the look of, and ticks all the boxes I currently require - just the diesel engine to consider.


If you really like your current car, keep it. If you promised youself a 'treat' then personally I prefer a 3 year old premium brand Lexus/Infinity) than a new Skoda/VW.

Or keep what you have and spend the £10k you were going to use to upgrade on a 'midlife crisi' Boxster/SLK/Z4 whilst you're still flexible enough to get in it.

Or this :)
https://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds ... 72/9117905

Paul

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#304836

Postby neversay » May 1st, 2020, 3:18 pm

It's an interesting question in terms of predictions, but also in terms of 'expectations' that drive purchasing behaviour.

A couple of years ago on a whim I switched a nearly dead Volvo 4WHD diesel estate for a second-hand plug-in hybrid Prius. We have no affinity to the Prius but at the time it fit our 'use-case' of principally being my wife's car for short journeys (school runs, supermarket visits, etc) and cleaner than cold diesel engine pumping out particulates. It wasn't a bad move as it has been reliable, very easy to drive (like a golf cart), zero tax (compared to £300 for the Volvo) and has barely used any fuel as 90% of miles have been electric and the rest around 70mpg (cf. 29mpg for the Volvo). The second-hand price seems to have held up reasonably well and, to be honest, the car has cost next to nothing as it has been offset by business mileage claims. All that said, it's now an old, unfashionable Prius and the kids call it a granny car. I just call it my wife's car. :lol:

Anyway, the point is that it was meant to be a 'crossover' car before jumping to full electric, but now 2 years on there's still no obvious electric choice to move to. My accountant suggests putting a Tesla through the business, but it doesn't stack-up compared to using rental cars for the days I travel. As we do low mileage, and mostly cycle anyway, there's no point sitting a brand new car on the driveway depreciating (when I can invest the money) and the price of second-hand electric cars doesn't warrant the premium IMHO. So now I am left with the dilemma - run the granny car longer or ditch the green 'crossover' and hop back to a non-electric car for a while?

Sorry if this is drifting off-topic but it's a present dilemma and on my mind; just this morning I was thinking of just listing the car for sale (probably to a uber taxi driver) but have absolutely no clue what car I would move to next.

DrFfybes
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#304949

Postby DrFfybes » May 1st, 2020, 10:52 pm

neversay wrote:Sorry if this is drifting off-topic but it's a present dilemma and on my mind; just this morning I was thinking of just listing the car for sale (probably to a uber taxi driver) but have absolutely no clue what car I would move to next.


This is very Foolsih, and I reckon a lot more people will be thinking this way for quite a while.

If you can't think of a car you want to buy to replace yours, why replace it? I can think of lots of cars I''d like to drive, but not that many I'd want to own. I can think of several I'd like to replace MrsF's with though (her car that is!) but she likes it for some reason.

Paul

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#304992

Postby bungeejumper » May 2nd, 2020, 9:23 am

DrFfybes wrote:I can think of several I'd like to replace MrsF's with though (her car that is!) but she likes it for some reason.

That's the Z4? Soft top?

My daughter loves hers - well, she's loved it since she finally learned how to handle a rear wheel drive car :lol:. She loved it a little bit less when the dreaded roof motor failure struck. (Nearly two thousand quid because she didn't clear her drainage gutters of leaves.)

I'd also be thinking seriously about a fully electric car when my five year old Toyota finally bites the dust - so let's see, that'll be some time around 2035..... The wife's 11 year old diesel Golf might switch to a hybrid at some point, but I can't see battery power being really ready within a five year time frame. If it it, I shall be glad to be wrong. :)

BJ

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305089

Postby neversay » May 2nd, 2020, 2:43 pm

DrFfybes wrote:
neversay wrote:Sorry if this is drifting off-topic but it's a present dilemma and on my mind; just this morning I was thinking of just listing the car for sale (probably to a uber taxi driver) but have absolutely no clue what car I would move to next.


This is very Foolsih, and I reckon a lot more people will be thinking this way for quite a while.

If you can't think of a car you want to buy to replace yours, why replace it? I can think of lots of cars I''d like to drive, but not that many I'd want to own. I can think of several I'd like to replace MrsF's with though (her car that is!) but she likes it for some reason.

Paul


Thanks Paul. I was somewhat sheepish about posting that on a board where car aficionados reside :) . When hiring cars for business trips I get to try all different makes and models and, to be honest, none particularly stand out as one I would desperately like to own. The badge doesn't bother me and if any the Kia's and Skodas have been some of the best. But give me my pushbike any day.

You are right though about sticking with my current car. The old Prius is dating quickly but costs next to nothing to run and is very clean for our usage profile. I'll just get the windows blacked-out so the kids aren't embarrassed by being in it. :lol:

On the Foolish front though, my daughter sent me a picture something like the following and wrote "I get it" - so the real message must be getting through! ;)

https://www.picuki.com/media/2217540570589600691

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305167

Postby DrFfybes » May 2nd, 2020, 8:22 pm

bungeejumper wrote:
DrFfybes wrote:I can think of several I'd like to replace MrsF's with though (her car that is!) but she likes it for some reason.

That's the Z4? Soft top?

My daughter loves hers - well, she's loved it since she finally learned how to handle a rear wheel drive car :lol:. She loved it a little bit less when the dreaded roof motor failure struck. (Nearly two thousand quid because she didn't clear her drainage gutters of leaves.)

I'd also be thinking seriously about a fully electric car when my five year old Toyota finally bites the dust - so let's see, that'll be some time around 2035..... The wife's 11 year old diesel Golf might switch to a hybrid at some point, but I can't see battery power being really ready within a five year time frame. If it it, I shall be glad to be wrong. :)

BJ


MrsF wanted something to replace the MR2 that wasn't an MX5. We chose the BMW rather than the Merc or the Porsche, but then realised we'd only dropped the roof twice in 7 years. As we live on a hill the dreaded roof motor would die, so she wanted a Z4 Coupe. Then she discovered they did an 'M' version. Well, who was I to argue :) It has gone up in value, probably worth more than my Maser now :(

neversay wrote:Thanks Paul. I was somewhat sheepish about posting that on a board where car aficionados reside :) . When hiring cars for business trips I get to try all different makes and models and, to be honest, none particularly stand out as one I would desperately like to own. The badge doesn't bother me and if any the Kia's and Skodas have been some of the best. But give me my pushbike any day.

You are right though about sticking with my current car. The old Prius is dating quickly but costs next to nothing to run and is very clean for our usage profile. I'll just get the windows blacked-out so the kids aren't embarrassed by being in it. :lol:

On the Foolish front though, my daughter sent me a picture something like the following and wrote "I get it" - so the real message must be getting through! ;)

https://www.picuki.com/media/2217540570589600691


There is a book called "The Millionaire Next Door" which looks at how people actually get wealthy - it turns out the do it by spending less than they earn (Mr Micawber sussed this a while ago). IIRC one of the things is that they were likely to drive a Toyota rather than a Merc/BMW/etc.

We live in a 'desirable' are with prices aboe average for the City. There are a lot of nice cars on the road, often late plates, kids with new bikes, etc. At a slightly boozy Xmas evenng I mentioned something about my Maserati being a lot cheaper then people thought - you could probably pick one up for about £20k. I was amazed that nearly everyone thought that was a lot of moey to spend outright on a car, as nearly all of them leased/PCP/etc'd theirs. Quite a lot were living almost month to month.

Paul

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305190

Postby neversay » May 2nd, 2020, 11:13 pm

DrFfybes wrote:There is a book called "The Millionaire Next Door" which looks at how people actually get wealthy - it turns out the do it by spending less than they earn (Mr Micawber sussed this a while ago). IIRC one of the things is that they were likely to drive a Toyota rather than a Merc/BMW/etc.

We live in a 'desirable' are with prices aboe average for the City. There are a lot of nice cars on the road, often late plates, kids with new bikes, etc. At a slightly boozy Xmas evenng I mentioned something about my Maserati being a lot cheaper then people thought - you could probably pick one up for about £20k. I was amazed that nearly everyone thought that was a lot of moey to spend outright on a car, as nearly all of them leased/PCP/etc'd theirs. Quite a lot were living almost month to month.

Paul


So true. Our similar-aged nextdoor neighbours remortgage at every opportunity, have two newish cars on payment plans, have 'staff' (cleaners, gardeners, tradespeople) and are constantly bragging on social media. We live a very good but low profile life, mortgage-free, low-overheads and (aside from other investments) have a six-figure bank balance on-hand. We could go out tomorrow and buy practically any car we want, but the quiet security of knowing we can takes away the desire. Our financial situation must mystify them. That amuses me. ;)

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305191

Postby JohnB » May 2nd, 2020, 11:34 pm

My car cost me about 0.5% of my net worth 5 years ago and should last me 5 years more, when I will buy a s/h electric one.

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305193

Postby Mike4 » May 2nd, 2020, 11:53 pm

ISTR attending a TMF property investors' social ten or fifteen years ago. There was undoubtedly many £m of equity attached to the peeps sitting around the table, but only about fifty quids-worth of cars in the pub car park outside. :lol:

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305276

Postby Gersemi » May 3rd, 2020, 11:31 am

neversay wrote:
We could go out tomorrow and buy practically any car we want, but the quiet security of knowing we can takes away the desire. Our financial situation must mystify them. That amuses me. ;)


It also mystifies car salesmen who invariably start the conversation with 'how much do you have to spend?' My answer is 'the right amount for the right car', but they find it really hard to start without a figure.

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305297

Postby richlist » May 3rd, 2020, 12:13 pm

Its the same for me. When I was younger there were a few cars that I would love to have owned but could never afford. Now I'm in a position to buy virtually anything I want and I've become indifferent.

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305366

Postby PrincessB » May 3rd, 2020, 3:43 pm

We live a very good but low profile life, mortgage-free, low-overheads and (aside from other investments) have a six-figure bank balance on-hand. We could go out tomorrow and buy practically any car we want, but the quiet security of knowing we can takes away the desire.


That's a really good point neversay and one that I agree with wholeheartedly.

By the time I had the money to buy a brand new Aston Martin, I realised I didn't want one.

For the time being, I'm going to run my car and scooter (paid for) until they die and then see what's available.

B.

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305371

Postby JohnB » May 3rd, 2020, 3:54 pm

I look at flash cars and think I'd have to work an extra year to have that. Considering purchases in man-months of effort makes you reassess them, though there is the issue of comparing weeks in exotic locations now with weeks in nursing homes to come.

Following the progress of the electric car market has exposed me to much more car porn, and the delight of many people in the shiny. and the value many put on luxury rather than utility. The question for me is not just ICE vs electric, but s/h city car vs new auto-parking saloons, which muddles the water

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305768

Postby redsturgeon » May 5th, 2020, 10:40 am

I think we just reached 30% for new electric vehicles in the UK in April!

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305770

Postby dealtn » May 5th, 2020, 10:49 am

redsturgeon wrote:I think we just reached 30% for new electric vehicles in the UK in April!


So a particular car company that has a long lag between sales and delivery was one of the few manufacturers delivering in April. I'm waiting for the fanbase to celebrate this inefficiency spun as a success!

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305784

Postby swill453 » May 5th, 2020, 11:29 am

redsturgeon wrote:I think we just reached 30% for new electric vehicles in the UK in April!

So 3 of the 10 cars sold were electric?

Scott.

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305786

Postby redsturgeon » May 5th, 2020, 11:34 am

swill453 wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:I think we just reached 30% for new electric vehicles in the UK in April!

So 3 of the 10 cars sold were electric?

Scott.


31.8% to be precise

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

John

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305806

Postby Breelander » May 5th, 2020, 12:12 pm

redsturgeon wrote: 31.8% to be precise

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/


April registrations can hardly be taken as representative with the lockdown restricting sales. April 2020 registrations were 97.3% down on April 2019. March 2020 is, perhaps, more representative. Just a 4.6% market share for BEV.

https://web.archive.org/web/20200411221 ... strations/

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305807

Postby redsturgeon » May 5th, 2020, 12:15 pm

Breelander wrote:
redsturgeon wrote: 31.8% to be precise

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/


April registrations can hardly be taken as representative with the lockdown restricting sales. April 2020 registrations were 97.3% down on April 2019. March 2020 is, perhaps, more representative. Just a 4.6% market share for BEV.

https://web.archive.org/web/20200411221 ... strations/


You don't say :)

John


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