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Will electric cars take over?

Passion, instruction, buying, care, maintenance and more, any form of vehicle discussion is welcome here

What proportion of NEW cars in the UK do think will be electric by 2030

Less than 10%
3
4%
10-30%
18
21%
30-60%
35
42%
60-90%
20
24%
over 90%
8
10%
 
Total votes: 84

DrFfybes
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#305955

Postby DrFfybes » May 5th, 2020, 11:40 pm

PrincessB wrote:By the time I had the money to buy a brand new Aston Martin, I realised I didn't want one.


Yup. A few years ago I set a budget for a 'fun' car and looked at Aston, Porsche, Ferrari, Lambo, Ford GT, etc. I spent a fraction of it on a 6 year old Maserati as once I realised I could afford to buy one of those cars, I really didn't want one.

A few years later we tested a Gallardo. A manual gearbox, and orange. Very very orange. When we got back I asked the salesman what he would give us part-ex on the Maserati. MrsF said "You can have it if you want, but we're keeping that one". She knew I wouldn't want 2 money pits, so we never got one.

Yet.

Paul

Howard
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306088

Postby Howard » May 6th, 2020, 12:51 pm

neversay wrote:
DrFfybes wrote:There is a book called "The Millionaire Next Door" which looks at how people actually get wealthy - it turns out the do it by spending less than they earn (Mr Micawber sussed this a while ago). IIRC one of the things is that they were likely to drive a Toyota rather than a Merc/BMW/etc.

We live in a 'desirable' are with prices aboe average for the City. There are a lot of nice cars on the road, often late plates, kids with new bikes, etc. At a slightly boozy Xmas evenng I mentioned something about my Maserati being a lot cheaper then people thought - you could probably pick one up for about £20k. I was amazed that nearly everyone thought that was a lot of moey to spend outright on a car, as nearly all of them leased/PCP/etc'd theirs. Quite a lot were living almost month to month.

Paul


So true. Our similar-aged nextdoor neighbours remortgage at every opportunity, have two newish cars on payment plans, have 'staff' (cleaners, gardeners, tradespeople) and are constantly bragging on social media. We live a very good but low profile life, mortgage-free, low-overheads and (aside from other investments) have a six-figure bank balance on-hand. We could go out tomorrow and buy practically any car we want, but the quiet security of knowing we can takes away the desire. Our financial situation must mystify them. That amuses me. ;)


I take your point, but driving a nice car can give a lot of pleasure.

We had the choice today between Mrs H’s Golf and my BMW 5 Series. I couldn’t resist choosing the BMW for near silent cruising up the dual carriageway to pick up our “click and collect” from Tesco. (Ten miles to our nearest available slot).

As we arrived in an immaculate, gleaming car, Mrs H remarked that the Tesco guy called me “Sir”. She said that doesn’t happen when you arrive in our Golf. He also made my day by saying “I’m awarding you the tidiest boot of the week prize, Sir.” as he stacked our shopping.

That’s even more fun to me than having a six figure bank account ;) !

Regards

Howard

JohnB
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306093

Postby JohnB » May 6th, 2020, 1:11 pm

Did you tip him?

Howard
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306096

Postby Howard » May 6th, 2020, 1:14 pm

JohnB wrote:Did you tip him?


No, but I take your point. If you have more than enough, it's important to give generously ;).

Howard

dubre
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306134

Postby dubre » May 6th, 2020, 3:37 pm

I started out in engineering in 1960 and remember an electrical engineering lecturer remarking that electric propultion for cars would be superior in nearly every way to the ICE. He went on to say that the only thing lacking is a decent battery. Battery technology has come on enormously but his comments still hold good?

Watis
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306141

Postby Watis » May 6th, 2020, 4:07 pm

sarahjo wrote:Its an intriguing technology. It still has a long way to go. More so than I think people really realize. Considering a tesla p1000 family SUV can beat almost all supercars off the line, and a 0-60 comparable to Bugattis, I would say electric cars have come a long way. The only problem they have is the fact that you can fill up a gas tank much quicker than you can charge a battery. But once there is a solution to that, electric cars will most definitely make fossil fuel engines a thing of history, and that's coming from someone who loves cars and combustion engines.


Since electric cars are so fast, why are milk floats so slow?

I think we should be told.

Watis

didds
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306157

Postby didds » May 6th, 2020, 5:05 pm

Watis wrote:rom someone who loves cars and combustion engines.


Since electric cars are so fast, why are milk floats so slow?

I think we should be told.

Watis[/quote]


Id stab a guess at...

* milk floats (MF) are every very old technology
* MF still do the job they were built to do so they are still used - probably decades old some of them
* have yo9u seen teh size and reckoned the weight of MF batteries?

MFs could probably be replaced by newer designes that would be much quicker. But then each new MF incolves lots of cash to buy them. as opposed to no cash to keep running the old MFs.


Maybe ???

didds

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306167

Postby dealtn » May 6th, 2020, 5:29 pm

didds wrote:
MFs could probably be replaced by newer designes that would be much quicker.


They have. They have engines. At least round here anyway.

JohnB
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306182

Postby JohnB » May 6th, 2020, 6:05 pm

Because you asked, http://www.milkfloats.org.uk/faq.html. Apparently they can last 30 years, and do 20mph.

tea42
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306185

Postby tea42 » May 6th, 2020, 6:14 pm

dubre wrote:I started out in engineering in 1960 and remember an electrical engineering lecturer remarking that electric propultion for cars would be superior in nearly every way to the ICE. He went on to say that the only thing lacking is a decent battery. Battery technology has come on enormously but his comments still hold good?


Spot on. One only has to think of the massive store of energy in a simple tank of petrol and how quickly and simply the tank can be replenished. Can anyone point to any sort of battery that can compete with that? Until we can electric vehicles will remain what they are, transport free of local pollution for short jouneys only. Such vehicles do have a role right now but as second cars in a household they remain pretty expensive.

Al

DrFfybes
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306187

Postby DrFfybes » May 6th, 2020, 6:16 pm

Watis wrote:
Since electric cars are so fast, why are milk floats so slow?

I think we should be told.

Watis


Because they didn't need to be fast.

Paul

DrFfybes
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306189

Postby DrFfybes » May 6th, 2020, 6:23 pm

tea42 wrote:
Spot on. One only has to think of the massive store of energy in a simple tank of petrol and how quickly and simply the tank can be replenished. Can anyone point to any sort of battery that can compete with that? Until we can electric vehicles will remain what they are, transport free of local pollution for short jouneys only. Such vehicles do have a role right now but as second cars in a household they remain pretty expensive.

Al


I've said for years what we need is a standard battery pack across a range of vehicles, easily swapped out at a charging station (possibly powered by wind/solar). Something like a giant Ryobi1+ battery system that could power you for 150 miles and swap in a couple of minutes. It measures the charge left in your old one and you pay for the extra. It needs the technology to mature first though.

Paul

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306193

Postby Mike4 » May 6th, 2020, 6:48 pm

DrFfybes wrote:
tea42 wrote:
Spot on. One only has to think of the massive store of energy in a simple tank of petrol and how quickly and simply the tank can be replenished. Can anyone point to any sort of battery that can compete with that? Until we can electric vehicles will remain what they are, transport free of local pollution for short jouneys only. Such vehicles do have a role right now but as second cars in a household they remain pretty expensive.

Al


I've said for years what we need is a standard battery pack across a range of vehicles, easily swapped out at a charging station (possibly powered by wind/solar). Something like a giant Ryobi1+ battery system that could power you for 150 miles and swap in a couple of minutes. It measures the charge left in your old one and you pay for the extra. It needs the technology to mature first though.

Paul


Have to say, an awful lot of peeps have been saying this for a very long time, but various electric car manus don't want to give up their proprietary battery and battery charging technologies, so never will unless forced.

Given the record us humans have on open shared standards, I can't see it ever happening. You'd think we'd have developed at least for example, a standard generic design of laptop by now for example. Or even a standard laptop battery! But no, it seems to run counter to the commercial interests of each individual player in the market. Even though designs converge technically as any given technology matures, the manus appear to go to extraordinary lengths to keep their products different for marketing reasons.

JohnB
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306202

Postby JohnB » May 6th, 2020, 7:18 pm

Tesla proposed battery swapping in 2013. It hasn't happened, and won't. With chargers now at 120 kW and efficiencies of 150Wh/km, you'll soon be able to add 10 miles/minute to your range at a service station (obviously a lot less at home even with 3-phase power). By 2030 I'd not expect the efficiency to be much greater, but I can see the charging to be a few times faster, and with battery range being 400 miles*, any service station charging is likely to be 'splash and dash' anyway.

* manufacturers will size batteries to customer demands. My i10 is annoying with only a 350 mile tank, but its a city car

DrFfybes
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306233

Postby DrFfybes » May 6th, 2020, 10:54 pm

JohnB wrote:* manufacturers will size batteries to customer demands. My i10 is annoying with only a 350 mile tank, but its a city car


That's a lot for a City car. We struggle to get that out of any of our cars unless on a long motorway drive.

Paul

bungeejumper
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306293

Postby bungeejumper » May 7th, 2020, 8:32 am

DrFfybes wrote:I've said for years what we need is a standard battery pack across a range of vehicles, easily swapped out at a charging station (possibly powered by wind/solar). Something like a giant Ryobi1+ battery system that could power you for 150 miles and swap in a couple of minutes. It measures the charge left in your old one and you pay for the extra. It needs the technology to mature first though.

Surely the problem with that is that it would lock manufacturers permanently (or for many years) into whatever happened to be the battery technology of the time? So when somebody invents a smaller, lighter battery with more amp-hours in five years' time, it'll be harder for manufacturers to sell the new cars that use it because people will expect that they'll have difficulty in getting hold of the exchange batteries that they'll need? And when the new batteries eventually become dominant, the battery stations will find themselves with mountains of obsolete battery stock that they've paid good money for?

Now and then, standardisation can put a brake on technological progress. This would seem to be one of those times. :|

BJ

swill453
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306300

Postby swill453 » May 7th, 2020, 8:45 am

I would have thought that advances in technology would mean further range for the existing modules, so cars will be able to take advantage of it.

And if the cells within the modules are themselves modular and upgradeable, then there shouldn't be needless waste.

Scott.

JohnB
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306307

Postby JohnB » May 7th, 2020, 9:12 am

The latest Fully Charged episode visits a battery recycling plant in Germany. Most of their input is clumsy battery packs designed to fit into ICE models, but they get a few of the much more elegant packs for the new cars designed from scratch. They recycle all the metals (and for a Li-ion battery its only 2% lithium, the dominant metal is cobalt), and could do all the electrolytes and even the graphite, but don't because of the economics, as we are hardly short of carbon.

Those packs could be dropped off, and you could have a common chassis across different ranges, as VW do, but I can't see cross company co-operation. And if chassis keep improving, you could have so many different battery options in a charging station it would be so hard to automate. Cars will be offered different kWh batteries like they have different levels of trim.

I think the only way battery drop-off stations could work with motoring-as-a-service, where you subscription gives you access to small/medium/big cars, the complexity is hidden, all cars are white. But I don't think you will break emotional attachment and status symbol aspects of cars.

BTW the ideal of the filling station with a wind turbine and solar panels is greenwash. It will need a very big cable to the national grid. After all 120kW is 1000 m^2 of solar panels peak. Filling stations will need their own huge battery packs to smooth demand. The designs I've seen are 10 or 20' TEU containers. Granted if they have a battery drop-off service they could use them

bungeejumper
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306341

Postby bungeejumper » May 7th, 2020, 10:16 am

swill453 wrote:I would have thought that advances in technology would mean further range for the existing modules, so cars will be able to take advantage of it.

And if the cells within the modules are themselves modular and upgradeable, then there shouldn't be needless waste.

And if the next phase is for 30 volt batteries? :)

BJ

swill453
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306344

Postby swill453 » May 7th, 2020, 10:18 am

bungeejumper wrote:
swill453 wrote:I would have thought that advances in technology would mean further range for the existing modules, so cars will be able to take advantage of it.

And if the cells within the modules are themselves modular and upgradeable, then there shouldn't be needless waste.

And if the next phase is for 30 volt batteries? :)

Well the cars are still going to have the means to get charged rather than have the batteries replaced, so no worse than current situation, they don't need to be scrapped.

Scott.


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