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Will electric cars take over?

Passion, instruction, buying, care, maintenance and more, any form of vehicle discussion is welcome here

What proportion of NEW cars in the UK do think will be electric by 2030

Less than 10%
3
4%
10-30%
18
21%
30-60%
35
42%
60-90%
20
24%
over 90%
8
10%
 
Total votes: 84

dspp
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306348

Postby dspp » May 7th, 2020, 10:25 am

swill453 wrote:
bungeejumper wrote:
swill453 wrote:I would have thought that advances in technology would mean further range for the existing modules, so cars will be able to take advantage of it.

And if the cells within the modules are themselves modular and upgradeable, then there shouldn't be needless waste.

And if the next phase is for 30 volt batteries? :)

Well the cars are still going to have the means to get charged rather than have the batteries replaced, so no worse than current situation, they don't need to be scrapped.

Scott.


Er, I don't think you've understood. There is the minor matter of all the wiring and the power electronics that would be affected by any change in system voltage .......

... your suggestion is not a good one until/unless/if-ever technology progress in batteries reaches a limit, and there is a corresponding family of vehicle designs to match them. Until then, no.

regards, dspp

bungeejumper
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306350

Postby bungeejumper » May 7th, 2020, 10:33 am

dspp wrote:Er, I don't think you've understood. There is the minor matter of all the wiring and the power electronics that would be affected by any change in system voltage .......

... your suggestion is not a good one until/unless/if-ever technology progress in batteries reaches a limit, and there is a corresponding family of vehicle designs to match them. Until then, no.

I'm probably arguing against myself here ;) , but if 30 volt batteries became the norm ,it would presumably be a small matter to run the peripheral electronics at 12 volts while the oomphy bits operated at a higher voltage. I'd hazard an (inexpert) guess that laptops don't run at 19 volts in every single corner of their systems?

BJ

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306352

Postby swill453 » May 7th, 2020, 10:38 am

dspp wrote:Er, I don't think you've understood. There is the minor matter of all the wiring and the power electronics that would be affected by any change in system voltage .......

... your suggestion is not a good one until/unless/if-ever technology progress in batteries reaches a limit, and there is a corresponding family of vehicle designs to match them. Until then, no.

Not sure if it's you that's misunderstanding or me. If battery technology changes, then the charging infrastructure will still be there for the older technology, even if the swappable-ness disappears.

Scott.

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306465

Postby dspp » May 7th, 2020, 3:17 pm

Scott/BG

- it is possible we are talking at cross purposes. I was thinking primarily of the in-car wiring looms.

- Re power supplies to charging sites, then slow chargers need little or no upgrade vs existing situation. In contrast fast chargers which are likely to be densepacked at the high volume sites (motorways etc) need HV supplies. They will need completely new HV feeds and/or large battery banks to reduce grid reinforcement. Either way swappable packs is not the way forwards any longer, and it is probably correct that the world has avoided that pathway. But those HV feeds need to be starting to go in now, and I am not seeing those announcements happening as (imho) they ought to be in the UK. The only company that has a serious handle on this at present in a commercially viable way for both themselves and their user-base imho is Tesla.

- indeed there will be lower voltage stuff in cars, but the march to ever-higher voltages goes on apace. A Tesla runs at about 350V or so and that is likely to be typical, even for their 'semi' trucks as from an electrical perspective they are a load of model 3 strapped together. http://speakerspeakermusic.com/tesla-ca ... y-voltage/

- for interest below is my house per yesterday. My calcs are that I could (if I had a driveway, which I don't) quite happily do an annual driving pattern just off the excess from my own 3.6kW solar. Alternatively even a small (3kWh) battery would take me off-grid for 10+ months of the year. Yet I still have a 100A feed, i.e. there is actually quite a lot of fat in much of the UK low voltage system even after accounting for diversity factors etc. And installing just 4kW of PV on every house plus 3kWh of battery per house at a local level (substation) increases that by a lot.

regards, dspp

Image

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306481

Postby Mike4 » May 7th, 2020, 4:27 pm

bungeejumper wrote:
swill453 wrote:I would have thought that advances in technology would mean further range for the existing modules, so cars will be able to take advantage of it.

And if the cells within the modules are themselves modular and upgradeable, then there shouldn't be needless waste.

And if the next phase is for 30 volt batteries? :)

BJ


Then the designers of the batteries will have been idiots! They should be building their batteries from however many cells it takes make the correct voltage to run the car :D

Lead acid cells are nominally 2 Volts. LiFePO4 cells are nominally a shade over 3 Volts. NiFe cells are 1.2 Volts. Aluminium air cells are also 1.2 Volts. Any totally new technology cells we haven't heard of yet might have far higher individual cell voltages, but in my view this is unlikely.

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#306703

Postby PrincessB » May 8th, 2020, 1:36 pm

Since electric cars are so fast, why are milk floats so slow?

I think we should be told.


A good friend of mine was a milkman for a while and his delivery route took him up the steep slope of Muswell Hill and when the milk was delivered to the flatter area at the top, he went back down again.

He once went down the hill at full throttle in a three wheeler milkfloat with a speedo that topped out at 25MPH and got to a He speed that involved passing other cars on the wrong side of the road while applying everything he could to the brakes to avoid ploughing into the roundabout at the bottom of the hill.

He would say over 80MPH, I doubt he did more than 50, but to answer your question, they are only slow on the flat.

B.

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#307083

Postby DrFfybes » May 9th, 2020, 11:35 pm

PrincessB wrote:
He would say over 80MPH, I doubt he did more than 50, but to answer your question, they are only slow on the flat.

B.


Metros are pretty nippy when dropped off a dam. just ask Freddie Flintoff!

Paul

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#307097

Postby Mike4 » May 10th, 2020, 12:50 am

PrincessB wrote:
Since electric cars are so fast, why are milk floats so slow?

I think we should be told.


A good friend of mine was a milkman for a while and his delivery route took him up the steep slope of Muswell Hill and when the milk was delivered to the flatter area at the top, he went back down again.

He once went down the hill at full throttle in a three wheeler milkfloat with a speedo that topped out at 25MPH and got to a He speed that involved passing other cars on the wrong side of the road while applying everything he could to the brakes to avoid ploughing into the roundabout at the bottom of the hill.

He would say over 80MPH, I doubt he did more than 50, but to answer your question, they are only slow on the flat.

B.


The two highlighted bits seem faintly contradictory, at first sight.

:lol:

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#307115

Postby PrincessB » May 10th, 2020, 6:52 am

In an attempt to get back to topic.

Should we consider the uptake of electric motorcycles?

I'm using the word motorcycle as proper bike size rather than an electric bicycles or scooters or the Sinclair C5 as they have a 15MPH top speed. Not a bad option for popping to the shops and great for those who need to take the strain off the legs when riding up a hill - Not very useful to get anywhere.

Harley Davidson sell an electric bike which admittedly is a bit costly (erm £29k) but is has the performance - 0-60 in three seconds and just under 100 miles range (which they claim is minimum).

If we translate that into some kind of urban commuter, which could happily charge from a normal plug socket, we get a maxi scooter sized bike with a 100 mile range and as it's not a performance device a 0-60 time could be dialed down to simply keep up with the traffic rather than nail it off the line.

I'll admit to being the most fair weather of bike owners. My rules are: It must be over 10ºC, it must also be dry and due to the massive potholes in this part of Surrey, there must be enough light to see them. When all three boxes are ticked, the car stays at home.

Most bikes sold are scooters - I think Honda sold more than 20 million C90s (Known as the Honda Cub in some parts of the world) That's not bad and most parts of the world have better weather than we do up near the North Pole.

My X-max has a range of 120miles, a top speed good enough to be safe on a motorway and enough storage to fit a weeks shopping under the seat. It is the perfect second vehicle, and in some parts of the world, and electric version with similar spec would be ideal as the first.

There are some schools of though that say we are flogging the lithium ion battery technolgy to the point where there are no further gains to be made from the capacity. Some say that we should be looking at something else like aluminium ion.

For the time being, we're seeing 10% gains in capacity per year from an established battery technology so why change horses mid race.

If we assume a motorcycle with a 100mile range, a 10 second 0-60 time that can be charged from a normal wall socket that costs £2,000 and has enough storage for that weeks shopping, would you be tempted?

I would, but I'd have the Tesla first and then the Hog, first world problems?

B.

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#307117

Postby Itsallaguess » May 10th, 2020, 7:18 am

It was interesting that during last night's Covid briefing, the Transport Secretary made specific mention of fast-tracking 'e-scooter' trials in the UK -

Mr Shapps also revealed plans to bring forward electric scooter trials in a bid to change the UK’s public transport landscape. Currently, e-scooters – which can travel at up to 15.5mph – are banned on roads and pavements in the UK.

A consultation into their legalisation was launched in March. He said: “Today I'm also fast-tracking trials of e-scooters. I'm bringing this programme, already underway, from next year to next month.

"I'm extending those trips from four local authorities to every region of the country that’s wants them in a bid to get e-scooter rental schemes up and running in cities as fast as possible.

“Helping reduce car use on shorter journeys and taking some of the pressure off the busses at this time. These trials will help us assess the safety benefits as well as the impact on public spaces”.


https://inews.co.uk/news/environment/e-scooters-to-be-fast-tracked-as-britons-are-urged-not-to-overwhelm-public-transport-2848021

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#307128

Postby PrincessB » May 10th, 2020, 8:39 am

Currently, e-scooters – which can travel at up to 15.5mph – are banned on roads and pavements in the UK.


Interesting point.

I'm becoming more aware of the difference in performance expected in different parts of the world.

If you read American reviews of cars, they often consider some cars sluggish while by European standards they would be more than enough.

Indian bike reviews often rave about the performance of bikes which seem a bit wimpy by European standards. The performance of a 90cc scooter can not by my metrics be descibed as 'Thrilling'.

Over in the UK we have some laws that really need changing.

A 50cc bike with a top speed of 30MPH might have been acceptable in the 1950's and the cars from that era would have not been a problem to the poor sod stuck with that speed limitation.

It is really hard to get a motorcycle licence, you really need to want one. Admittedly a full car licence allows you to drive a 50cc bike without 'L' plates, but apart from an emergency vehicle, why would anyone want to go on a road and contend with modern traffic with something like that.

If we assume that most people don't live in central London and might need to travel more than three miles then the solution is as follows:

Everyone over 14 gets a licence to drive a motorcycle (The French do it)
If we throw away this 50cc - 30MPH limit. Why not just say - 15HP or electric equivalent. It's not fun, but a 125 will work on a motorway as long as you tuck in behind a lorry.

Mr Honda decided that personal transport was a basic human right and set about to enure that became so. I agree with him. People use public transport because they have to, people use cars and bikes because they want to.

Most people don't really give a stuff about the environment or what fuel they use, they want something they can afford that does what they need it to do.

B.

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#307130

Postby JohnB » May 10th, 2020, 8:45 am

The consultation is here

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultat ... -a-service

I answered saying that e-scooters should be treated, and have the same brakes, lights etc as electric bicycles, and they should travel on the road. electric skateboards should remain banned.

A glance at Amazon suggests e-scooters can be kept at the £500 point for adults, what worries me is the cheap ones aimed at children who will be a menace.

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#307180

Postby tjh290633 » May 10th, 2020, 11:17 am

PrincessB wrote:My X-max has a range of 120miles, a top speed good enough to be safe on a motorway and enough storage to fit a weeks shopping under the seat. It is the perfect second vehicle, and in some parts of the world, and electric version with similar spec would be ideal as the first.

You must have a very big seat. My weekly shop for two of us will not fit into the boot of my wife's car.

TJH

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#307211

Postby PrincessB » May 10th, 2020, 12:03 pm

You must have a very big seat. My weekly shop for two of us will not fit into the boot of my wife's car.


Hi TJH.

The X-max has huge underseat storage, this could be added to with a top box, but I've never run out of space even with a full crate of beer and a baguette (for a light lunch) packing can become amusing but it will fit.

The X-Max is a big scooter and for those who commute, the Honda 300i is narrower, faster and looks awful. Fast enough for most and at least they won't see you for long as you pull away with warm hatchback acceleration.

I considered the Honda option and decided on the X-Max as I need to justify having a bike that will be used whenever possible and that meant sacrificing some performance to gain the storage space. If you look it up, you'll see that the X-Max has appealing batman styling while the more capable Honda looks like the kind of bike you don't want to be seen on.

B.

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#307299

Postby Leothebear » May 10th, 2020, 4:41 pm

nmdhqbc wrote:
tea42 wrote:Michael Moores film the greens want suppressed.


Gets a review here...
https://youtu.be/oU9RsbdUvhk?t=743


Thanks for that. I was verging on the suicidal after watching most of "The planet of the humans".

neversay
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#308199

Postby neversay » May 13th, 2020, 10:59 am

I lost track of this thread so this is a possible slight aside, and probably covered elsewhere on the infinite Musk Endeavours thread, but I saw this article this morning:

https://marker.medium.com/look-for-elon ... eb3eef4546

"Tesla did not respond to an email seeking comment, but for months Musk has been building expectation around Battery Day, a second annual event where he and his lieutenants geek out on the innards that drive his vehicles. In January, Musk told analysts that what he had to say “will blow your mind. It blows my mind.” [...]

"No one outside of Tesla can be certain what Musk is going to announce. But Venkat Viswanathan, a battery expert at Carnegie Mellon, thinks the Tesla chief will announce a goal below $100 kWh at the cell level. Ellis, the Munro analyst, is also betting on $100 kWh. “That’s the only thing he could say that would blow your mind because that takes the battery pack cost down to the internal combustion engine,” Ellis said."


Although they have just released a patent about a tabless battery cell:

https://www.popularmechanics.com/scienc ... ll-patent/

Who knows. The point is that a battery breakthrough could change the results of the OPs survey quite dramatically.

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#308307

Postby XFool » May 13th, 2020, 3:38 pm

Watis wrote:Since electric cars are so fast, why are milk floats so slow?

I think we should be told.

Watis

Err... Because they are "milk floats" and not "electric cars"? No expert, I confess. But still!

Milk floats were originally designed to replaced horse drawn milk deliveries, in the days when 'everybody' had milk delivered to the door - they were designed for short stop start journeys, not to compete in speed trials, 'cos they were "milk floats"...

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#308310

Postby XFool » May 13th, 2020, 3:43 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
PrincessB wrote:My X-max has a range of 120miles, a top speed good enough to be safe on a motorway and enough storage to fit a weeks shopping under the seat. It is the perfect second vehicle, and in some parts of the world, and electric version with similar spec would be ideal as the first.

You must have a very big seat. My weekly shop for two of us will not fit into the boot of my wife's car.

TJH

Makes you wonder who really has "a very big seat". ;)

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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#309114

Postby Snorvey » May 16th, 2020, 12:51 pm

I've come to this thread late, but I've been watching a series of motorbike vids on YouTube. One of the episodes involved stripping and rebuilding a KLR650 - which basically has an unspectacular 650cc single cylinder motor.

The thing that always get me compared to an electric power plant is the sheer amount of.....well. ....stuff in a petrol engine. From the gearbox to the valve train, it's just incredible the level of engineering that's required.

Electric is surely the way forward, whether it's hydrogen fuel cell or batteries. It's just the energy source and storage that's the issue.

Maybe we need a decaying plutonium isotope electricity generator like the Voyager spacecraft or the movie 'The Martian'. Obviously you'd have to sign something to say you weren't a terrorist and going to use it for nefarious purposes, but that's ok.

tjh290633
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Re: Will electric cars take over?

#309222

Postby tjh290633 » May 16th, 2020, 8:28 pm

Snorvey wrote:The thing that always get me compared to an electric power plant is the sheer amount of.....well. ....stuff in a petrol engine. From the gearbox to the valve train, it's just incredible the level of engineering that's required.

Have you never looked at a 2-stroke engine? Very few moving parts.

TJH


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