The Lemon Fool

Following on from AF62s opinions. what proportion of new car sales will be Battery Electric in 2030?

Wow, I'm the only one who said over 90%.
I'm coming back in 10 years time to say "I told you so!"

Just to clarify, you do mean only cars? Not vans, pick up trucks, minibuses, buses, coaches, MPVs, 4x4s, lorries, tankers, dustcarts, tractors, diggers, milk floats etc?

Watch this first before making your answer....

https://youtu.be/Zk11vI-7czE

Michael Moores film the greens want suppressed.

IMO there are just too many of us.

At the moment its a good idea to have an electric car as a homes second vehicle for short distance journeys purely to cut pollution in towns and cities. Otherwise environmentally they are pants.

Michael Moore's film has been comprehensively debunked as it is full of blatant inaccuracies

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... -outdated/

The devil is in the detail. A film of soundbites is of little use

Mike4 wrote:Just to clarify, you do mean only cars? Not vans, pick up trucks, minibuses, buses, coaches, MPVs, 4x4s, lorries, tankers, dustcarts, tractors, diggers, milk floats etc?

It was just cars. Milk floats have been electric for 50 years

Interesting that the general opinion seems to be around the 50% mark for Battery EVs with 5 years to go before petrol gets canned. I was in that region, I think that nearly all cars will be some sort of hybrid by then, probably a requirement to meet emissions and preferable for whatever tax system they impose.

Paul

DrFfybes wrote:

Mike4 wrote:Just to clarify, you do mean only cars? Not vans, pick up trucks, minibuses, buses, coaches, MPVs, 4x4s, lorries, tankers, dustcarts, tractors, diggers, milk floats etc?

It was just cars. Milk floats have been electric for 50 years

I put milk floats in to see if anyone was actually reading. Well done!

But more seriously, most milk floats changed to diesel Transits 20 years ago didn't they? With special beefed up starter motors IIRC.

DrFfybes wrote:

Mike4 wrote:Just to clarify, you do mean only cars? Not vans, pick up trucks, minibuses, buses, coaches, MPVs, 4x4s, lorries, tankers, dustcarts, tractors, diggers, milk floats etc?

I think that nearly all cars will be some sort of hybrid by then, probably a requirement to meet emissions and preferable for whatever tax system they impose.

Paul

I'm no expert on these things but I've got the impression that hybrids are at best a stop-gap and probably a way of meet emission requirements under perhaps unrealistic testing methodologies. Interesting to see Toyota trying the Atkinson cycle though.

RC

tea42 wrote:Michael Moores film the greens want suppressed.

Gets a review here...
https://youtu.be/oU9RsbdUvhk?t=743

I am really struggling with this question. I have an excellent diesel car which is coming up for 10 years old. Touch wood, it is extremely reliable, and apart from a little bit of rust, it is in excellent condition, and best of all, I really like it. I have had it from new, and promised myself a new car as a present to myself on reaching retirement age (65 at the end of last year; 66 at the end of this year).

The problem is, current electric cars don't work for me. I need to be able to drive 250 to 350 miles in a day (not very often, but maybe 20 times a year). Then there is the question of how long the batteries will last, and how they degrade. Will electric cars fall out of favour, to be replaced by hydrogen power?

The end result is that I will either keep my current car for several more years, or buy a decent secondhand car as an interim. (There was a really interesting article in The Telegraph yesterday on secondhand cars, which got me to look at the Infiniti Q30, which I quite like the look of, and ticks all the boxes I currently require - just the diesel engine to consider.

The poll is not about electric cars now, but in a decade's time. Then the batteries will give the same range as fuel tanks, charging infrastructure will be in place and faster than now, and reliability and vehicle life should exceed ICE cars. Total lifetime cost will depend on petrol vs electric prices, but is likely to in favour of electric cars because of government regulation.

Hybrid cars are losing traction already, and hydrogen is not gaining it. What will take time is replacing the ICE stock, as people keep them for 15 years.

Compare the original 2011 Leaf with current models and run the improvements forward 10 years.

JohnB wrote:The poll is not about electric cars now, but in a decade's time.

Actually I don't think that it is.

Had it been about if the majority of cars built in 2030 would be electric I would have voted differently.

The poll was about cars "in Britain", by which I understood on the road rather than being produced or sold. Hence the majority will have been produced prior to 2030. My car is 15 years old and I don't intend to replace it for another five. Many of the cars in 2030 will be being produced now.

Some current EV's do have a 250-350 mile range, indeed the Tesla roadster currently has a 600 mile range. How many Ev's are Tesla roadsters? Why doesn't a leaf have the same range if it's a requirement? Sure it costs a LOT to offer that range, but if it's a requirement.... Somehow I suspect that even in 2030 most electric cars sold won't have that range regardless of improvements in technology. If a smaller lighter battery will give the same range on a 2030 leaf as is popular now, why not give it more space or luggage room?

While I don't own one I am a fan of EV's. However that doesn't change the fact's about how long people own cars, how many currently are EV's and the proportion of new cars on the road.

On a personal note, I'm waiting until my son learns to drive and passes his test before I buy a EV.

Urbandreamer wrote:

JohnB wrote:The poll is not about electric cars now, but in a decade's time.

Actually I don't think that it is.

Had it been about if the majority of cars built in 2030 would be electric I would have voted differently.

The poll was about cars "in Britain", by which I understood on the road rather than being produced or sold. Hence the majority will have been produced prior to 2030. My car is 15 years old and I don't intend to replace it for another five. Many of the cars in 2030 will be being produced now.

Eh? The question is literally "what proportion of new car sales will be Battery Electric in 2030?"

Scott.

Actually, to be pedantic, it's not !

The actual question is : What proportion of NEW cars in the UK do think will be electric by 2030.

There is no mention of sales in the question and it says by 2030 not in 2030. Therefore i can see how it's very easy to interpret the question in different ways.

richlist wrote:Actually, to be pedantic, it's not !

The actual question is : What proportion of cars in the UK do think will be electric by 2030.

Actually, to be pedantic, it's not !

There are actually two questions, one in the title of the poll and one in the body of DrFfybes post. Neither of them are as you quoted.

1. What proportion of NEW cars in the UK do think will be electric by 2030 (DrFfybes' caps).
2. what proportion of new car sales will be Battery Electric in 2030? (which is what I quoted).

Either way, the meaning is clear, it's new cars in 2030.

Scott.

richlist wrote:Actually, to be pedantic, it's not !

The actual question is : What proportion of NEW cars in the UK do think will be electric by 2030.

There is no mention of sales in the question and it says by 2030 not in 2030. Therefore i can see how it's very easy to interpret the question in different ways.

I see I replied to a message you must have deleted.

But I disagree that the question is open to interpretation. "New" cars in 2030 unambiguously refers to sales. As soon as a car leaves the showroom it's not new any more.

Scott.

swill453 wrote:There are actually two questions, one in the title of the poll and one in the body of DrFfybes post. Neither of them are as you quoted.

1. What proportion of NEW cars in the UK do think will be electric by 2030 (DrFfybes' caps).
2. what proportion of new car sales will be Battery Electric in 2030? (which is what I quoted).
Scott.

To be truelly pedantic there are 3.

The title of the thread is also a question.
Indeed it it the question that I thought was asked in the poll and that I answered in the poll.
It was also the one that I posted about, assuming that it was "THE" question.

To avoid confusion that currently (Threads can be renamed) reads.

Will electric cars take over?

I'm sorry that I failed to recognise that the question in the poll was not about electric cars taking over on the roads but actualy in sales.

Mike4 wrote:
But more seriously, most milk floats changed to diesel Transits 20 years ago didn't they? With special beefed up starter motors IIRC.

Not roind hyere it seems. Less than 20 years ago I was a milkman for a summer and the fleet was all electric

didds

If the motor industry has its way we will all be clamouring for electric cars. It's all about growth. Growth in population and growth in stuff and growth in experiences for everyone. It's not sustainable. And, it's the problem. We need less people, reduced demand, more efficient use of resources and negative growth. Breath the fresher air right now and believe it.
For those who naively diss Michael Moore's film Planet of the Humans, here's the filmmakers response ...

https://youtu.be/Bop8x24G_o0