hybrid or not to hybrid

[stooz]

with the end date for new hybrids in constant shift and debate, any purchase will mean a real cliff drop in resale , so you just have to keep it until it drops, but I still think its too early and expensive to go full electric.

What are others thoughts and plans for the next car?

I think plugin hybrid will do me fine for my short journeys and provide the safety net for a big run to spain via france if needed (I cant decipher charging points in france!)
+ this whole mess of having to have accounts and monthly fees for electric seems daft- just turning up and needing a charge to find you have to register a new account and apply for a swipe card seems like madness. I just want 'fuel' !

Maybe its easier than that but it doesnt seem that way to the noob buyer and as above trying to read the equivelant in french and spanish is off puttings. its certainly no open turn up and charge style system.

..So who is going electric or plugin hybrid?

[Arborbridge]

I was interested in plug-in hybrid, but the mood passed.

I really think it's far too early for either that or electric. I am not convinced of the economic benefit or practicality, and until they sort that out, I'm not bothering. It's a waste of valuable capital with a unicorn type return. let alone carrying a load of excess wait and losing boot space.

I remain to be convinced even of any green benefit either, so unusually for me with new things, I am beginning to think the whole idea is rubbish. It'll be in the same junk ideas box as cavity wall insulation.

Arb.

[JohnB]

My next car will be electric, but with 50k on the clock for the current one, the decision is some years away.

I don't buy new cars, but if I did I'd try to put off the decision and get a 2022 electric, not a 2020 hybrid, as its a camel.

[Dod101]

My next car is likely to be the new Q5, due in January or February and it will be good old fashioned petrol. A bit like Arb I can see the apparent benefits mof electric or a hybrid but the costs that I have seen are not attractive and I know what I like.

Dod

[ReformedCharacter]

I can't help but think that there's something inherently wrong with a hybrid. Neither one thing nor another and more complicated. I'd guess they're a stop-gap technology to meet emission targets before all new cars are electric.

RC

[DrFfybes]

with the end date for new hybrids in constant shift and debate, any purchase will mean a real cliff drop in resale , so you just have to keep it until it drops, but I still think its too early and expensive to go full electric.

I suspect any cars with combustion engines will have very high residuals when you can't get them any more unless other steps are taken to make them extremely unattractive.

Paul

[stooz]

With a plan to ban new diesel or petrol manufacture, I see a slow but increasing cost for fuel, by lack of demand/shortage and taxation combined.
And ever increasing road tax as well

[Mike88]

with the end date for new hybrids in constant shift and debate, any purchase will mean a real cliff drop in resale , so you just have to keep it until it drops, but I still think its too early and expensive to go full electric.

I suspect any cars with combustion engines will have very high residuals when you can't get them any more unless other steps are taken to make them extremely unattractive.

Paul

People will be driven away from combustion engines by huge increases in fuel duty. I have just bought a petrol engined car as the alternatives were unacceptable to me. Eventually all electric will be the way to go but more charging infrastructure will be required first.

[JohnB]

I can't see why people would want S/H petrol cars in 2030. They'd cost more to service and fuel, have poorer acceleration and be noisier. I also expect they'd cost more to buy than electric cars by then. The BEV software will be amortised, electric motors are cheaper than ICE engines, and the big problem now, the high battery pack cost, will have vanished with giga-factories and new battery technology. And that's before the punitive taxes and access charges (if even possible) to city centres. And with no new models having been introduced for 5 years beforehand, they'll be dating fast.

There will always be enthusiasts, but they'll be running them as second cars.

[Mike4]

and the big problem now, the high battery pack cost, will have vanished with giga-factories and new battery technology.

What new battery technology are you seeing in the future, please?

All I can see is a stream of marginal improvements in Lithium battery performance.

[JohnB]

https://www.digitaltrends.com/features/ ... echnology/

In 2019, venture capitalists sunk $1.7 billion into battery startups, with 1.4 billion of it going to lithium-ion related research. But flow batteries, zinc-air, liquid metal, and many other technologies also got written checks. While lithium-ion energy storage will likely dominate energy storage for at least another 10 years, many others already look like they’ll power their way out of the valley of death.

[ReformedCharacter]

What new battery technology are you seeing in the future, please?

All I can see is a stream of marginal improvements in Lithium battery performance.

It depends what you call marginal I suppose:

Musk said Tesla achieved this breakthrough by removing the tab, a part of the battery that forms a connection between the cell and what it is powering. These new tabless cells, which Tesla is calling 4860 cells, will give the company’s EV batteries five times more energy capacity, make them six times more powerful, and enable a 16 percent range increase for Tesla’s vehicles.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/21449238/tesla-electric-car-battery-tabless-cells-day-elon-musk

RC

[Mike4]

What new battery technology are you seeing in the future, please?

All I can see is a stream of marginal improvements in Lithium battery performance.

It depends what you call marginal I suppose:

Musk said Tesla achieved this breakthrough by removing the tab, a part of the battery that forms a connection between the cell and what it is powering. These new tabless cells, which Tesla is calling 4860 cells, will give the company’s EV batteries five times more energy capacity, make them six times more powerful, and enable a 16 percent range increase for Tesla’s vehicles.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/21449238/tesla-electric-car-battery-tabless-cells-day-elon-musk

RC

None of that makes any sense to me. Claiming five times the energy capacity by fiddling with the connections seems unlikely, but claiming this makes the battery six times more powerful illustrates technical illiteracy on the part of the author. Firstly dimensional analysis is ignored, and secondly LiFePO4 batteries already have approaching zero internal resistance so can deliver power (the integral of energy) in megaWatts when attached to a suitable load, don'tcher think? Finally, I'd have thought the five-fold increase in battery capacity as stated would deliver a five-fold increase in range, not just an extra 16%.

So, I think the improvement in the connections is more likely to be bringing a 16% improvement. Granted more than marginal, but it's hardly "new battery technology" that will free us from the need to charge every 300 miles or thereabouts, yet.

[Dod101]

I love all the expert opinions here but simply do not care. For me my new car of choice will be a petrol engined one and if I need to change it in the future, I will cross that bridge when I come to it. I expect that electric cars will become the future but in the meantime, I wish it were electric buses. I have a so called efficient diesel bus which comes up my road occasionally and which I hate.

Dod

[dspp]

So, I think the improvement in the connections is more likely to be bringing a 16% improvement. Granted more than marginal, but it's hardly "new battery technology" that will free us from the need to charge every 300 miles or thereabouts, yet.

Mike,

The longer range version of the Tesla model S already has the 400-mile range,

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/blog/model- ... edirect=no

and the corresponding Tesla model 3 long range version is at 322 miles range.

In my personal opinion the cumulative effect of the Tesla Battery Day (https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/2020shareholdermeeting) systems approach to battery design & manufacture & vehicle integration https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/2020shareholdermeeting are indeed dramatic. I am sure that solid state battery research will continue, but even if one day they succeed the solid state battery designs proposed have very significant limitations. Over the next few years I expect to see Tesla use this stuff to put a minimum 300-mile range in all their full fat BEV vehicles, which in turn will raise the bar for all their competitors. And already using these new cells which they have been testing for several months the top Tesla S 'Plaid' is at 520-mile range ! https://robbreport.com/motors/cars/tesl ... 234570930/

Anyway I don't expect that hybrid PHEV will survive much longer. Those manufacturers that have invested in them need to keep going for the time being due to industrial inertia, but already we can see that it is an industrial dead end in less than 5-years imho. So anyone buying a PHEV is signing up to a depreciation problem. And because politicians are being forced to wise up, the PHEV will likely soon encounter city-centre pollution controls just like ICE vehicles. Besides which we all know that the vast majority of PHEVs are never plugged in, so they are just a wheeze for the dino-juice luddites to pretend to be green.

regards, dspp


BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle
PHEV = Partial Hybrid Electric Vehicle
ICE = Internal Combustion Engine vehicle

[swill453]

BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle
PHEV = Partial Hybrid Electric Vehicle
ICE = Internal Combustion Engine vehicle

PHEV = Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

Scott.

[swill453]

My usual pattern is to buy a 3 or 4 year old car and keep it for 3 or 4 years. This, and my pattern of use, means that for me the choice will be a smallish turbo petrol engine.

Call me luddite...

Scott.

[Urbandreamer]

I have wanted a electric car for over 16 years, but there were issues during most of that time.

Only one issue remains for me.That my son will soon be learning to dive and electric or hybrid cars are automatic.
If we consider petrol/diesel/hybrid V battery you are trading increased maintenance costs and at least statistically reliability for very large range*.

The internal combustion engine has a very large number of moving parts and yet more expensive parts in the exhaust system. Gas recirculation, lambder sensors, turbo's catalists.. the list goes on.

Many know of someone who had a Cam belt snap and needed a new engine.
What of the costs of ignoring the temperature guage? Hint, the wax thermostat locks open so the engine never gets to temperature, which causes the cat to not get to temperature. Hence fouling and requiring it to need replacing. The same can happen with a lamber sensor fails. Or if the gas recirculation fails leading to too much Ox in the exhaust.
The turbo shares the same lubrication as the engine oil, which stops flowing when you turn the engine off. Turbos fail more often if you regularly drive hard, then don't allow them to cool down.

There are simply less bits in a EV and those that are likely to go wrong have a fairly well understood life, a bit like the Cam belt but without the damage to other components.

*Well there are exceptions. Ferrari and Koenigsegg make hybrids where performance, rather than range, while complying with emissions is the requirement. The latest Koenigsegg has 1.27MW of power, 3500Nm torque and a 0-100 Km/h (0-62 mph) of 1.9 Sec. I don't think that it has a large fuel tank though and I think that the batteries would get you about 15 miles.

[richlist]

Not all hybrids are automatic.
My other half just got a Ford Puma that's a MHEV......6 speed manual gearbox.

[nmdhqbc]

What new battery technology are you seeing in the future, please?

All I can see is a stream of marginal improvements in Lithium battery performance.

It depends what you call marginal I suppose:

Musk said Tesla achieved this breakthrough by removing the tab, a part of the battery that forms a connection between the cell and what it is powering. These new tabless cells, which Tesla is calling 4860 cells, will give the company’s EV batteries five times more energy capacity, make them six times more powerful, and enable a 16 percent range increase for Tesla’s vehicles.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/21449238/tesla-electric-car-battery-tabless-cells-day-elon-musk

RC

None of that makes any sense to me. Claiming five times the energy capacity by fiddling with the connections seems unlikely, but claiming this makes the battery six times more powerful illustrates technical illiteracy on the part of the author. Firstly dimensional analysis is ignored, and secondly LiFePO4 batteries already have approaching zero internal resistance so can deliver power (the integral of energy) in megaWatts when attached to a suitable load, don'tcher think? Finally, I'd have thought the five-fold increase in battery capacity as stated would deliver a five-fold increase in range, not just an extra 16%.

So, I think the improvement in the connections is more likely to be bringing a 16% improvement. Granted more than marginal, but it's hardly "new battery technology" that will free us from the need to charge every 300 miles or thereabouts, yet.

The 16% range increase being mentioned in these posts are from "cell design" only. The other improvements announced make a total of 54% range increase as you can see in the diagram from the Battery day presentation. More important to me is the 56% cost reduction. Maybe they can put a bit of that cash into quality improvements...