BEV replacement battery cost.

[DrFfybes]

Apparently a replacement battery for Tesla modelS is $22k. It appears some people think it is cheaper to throw the whole car away and start again.....

https://electrek.co/2021/12/23/tesla-ow ... placement/

Not the typical Finnish reaction

Paul

[BullDog]

Apparently a replacement battery for Tesla modelS is $22k. It appears some people think it is cheaper to throw the whole car away and start again.....

https://electrek.co/2021/12/23/tesla-ow ... placement/

Not the typical Finnish reaction

Paul

Real cradle to grave environmental footprint comparing a Tesla to something like a Land Rover (Defender) or Toyota Landcruiser would be fascinating. (My guess is that over the typical 3 or 4 decade lifetime of the Land Rover or Toyota, you'd use maybe 5 to 10 Teslas?).

[Midsmartin]

I think I've seen that an ev uses about 40% more energy in production than a petrol car, mainly in making batteries. So you need to drive a fair few miles to reach break even.

That also means that it's really important to know the energy source used in the manufacture of your car, if you care, and of course this information tends bit too be available.

Plus people buying evs seem now to buy huge SUVs the size of a tank, which use more energy both in manufacture and use, as well as clogging up parking spaces and narrow roads.

[Hallucigenia]

I think I've seen that an ev uses about 40% more energy in production than a petrol car, mainly in making batteries. So you need to drive a fair few miles to reach break even.

Auke Hoekstra reckons it takes about 16,000 miles for an EV in the UK to break even with a fossil-fuel car, so it's not nothing but it's not too bad - ignore the so-called "research" put about by a fake PR company linked to Aston Martin's Director of External Affairs that said it was 48,000 miles.

Other than the first-gen Nissan Leaf, it's fairly rare for EVs to need their battery replacing in normal use - the average UK car is scrapped after 100k miles or so and at an average of 14 years.

[Howard]

Plus people buying evs seem now to buy huge SUVs the size of a tank, which use more energy both in manufacture and use, as well as clogging up parking spaces and narrow roads.

Which BEVs are you referring to?

The most popular BEVs are medium sized. Tesla Model 3, Kia, Hyundai, VW Golfs, ID 3s, ID 4s, MG, Skoda, Mini, Nissan, Vauxhall, Peugeot, Mazda, Renault are all small/medium cars.

Can you name a few BEV SUVs which are the size of a tank and have sold in any quantity?

regards

Howard

PS are you confusing hybrids with BEVs?

[DrFfybes]

Plus people buying evs seem now to buy huge SUVs the size of a tank, which use more energy both in manufacture and use, as well as clogging up parking spaces and narrow roads.

Which BEVs are you referring to?

The most popular BEVs are medium sized. Tesla Model 3, Kia, Hyundai, VW Golfs, ID 3s, ID 4s, MG, Skoda, Mini, Nissan, Vauxhall, Peugeot, Mazda, Renault are all small/medium cars.

Can you name a few BEV SUVs which are the size of a tank and have sold in any quantity?

regards

Howard

PS are you confusing hybrids with BEVs?

Depends what you call small/medium or a 'tank'. I'd say pretty much anything that is an SUV is not 'small/medium', I'd say anything small/med are Focus and smaller, so Mini, Leaf, ID3, Zoe, etc.

Kia Niro (2nd biggest selling electric car 2021 with 11,600 units compared to Tesla model 3 with 25k), Audi Etron (5th, 6800), Hyundai Kona (6th, 6500), Jag Ipace, Merc EQA, new MG ZS (9th, 5100 units sold), Ford.#'s murdering of the Mustang brand Mach-E, Skoda E-yak, etc etc.

https://heycar.co.uk/blog/electric-cars ... rojections

30k units from the top 10 best sellers, compared to a total of about 90k, so looks like about 30%.

Paul

[Howard]

Plus people buying evs seem now to buy huge SUVs the size of a tank, which use more energy both in manufacture and use, as well as clogging up parking spaces and narrow roads.

Which BEVs are you referring to?

The most popular BEVs are medium sized. Tesla Model 3, Kia, Hyundai, VW Golfs, ID 3s, ID 4s, MG, Skoda, Mini, Nissan, Vauxhall, Peugeot, Mazda, Renault are all small/medium cars.

Can you name a few BEV SUVs which are the size of a tank and have sold in any quantity?

regards

Howard

PS are you confusing hybrids with BEVs?

Depends what you call small/medium or a 'tank'. I'd say pretty much anything that is an SUV is not 'small/medium', I'd say anything small/med are Focus and smaller, so Mini, Leaf, ID3, Zoe, etc.

Kia Niro (2nd biggest selling electric car 2021 with 11,600 units compared to Tesla model 3 with 25k), Audi Etron (5th, 6800), Hyundai Kona (6th, 6500), Jag Ipace, Merc EQA, new MG ZS (9th, 5100 units sold), Ford.#'s murdering of the Mustang brand Mach-E, Skoda E-yak, etc etc.

https://heycar.co.uk/blog/electric-cars ... rojections

30k units from the top 10 best sellers, compared to a total of about 90k, so looks like about 30%.

Paul

Paul, I think you are making my point.

If you consider a Ford Focus as a medium car then, would you agree the smaller Kia e Niro, Hyundai Kona and MG ZS must be considered "small"?

They are shorter and narrower than a Focus.

The slightly bigger Tesla model 3 could hardly be called a "tank". And the Mercedes EQA is similar in size to a Focus.

Yes the Audi and Jag are a little bigger but they haven't got a large market share.

The majority of BEVs sold in Britain this year (and last) were surely small/medium cars that don't take up much space in a car park.

Can I cheekily ask if your car feels tank-like and takes up more space in a car park than our Kia Soul EV SUV?*

regards

Howard

*4195 x 1800 mm incl wing mirrors

[DrFfybes]

Can I cheekily ask if your car feels tank-like and takes up more space in a car park than our Kia Soul EV SUV?*

regards

Howard

*4195 x 1800 mm incl wing mirrors

2 of them don't take up that much room, but one only has 2 seats and a small boot (2006 Z4 4091 x 1781 according to Parkers, but only 1300mm high, probably why it is so economical ) The Avensis is 4750 x 1811, but it was bought for getting single beds or 6 foot sheet materials flat in the boot or 3m worktops inside it when it rains.

The thing with the others you metion is not floor space, but frontal area. All are taller/higher than a 'normal' car, which generally increases drag, which mean less range or larger batteries.

Back to the original topic, $22k for new batteries after 9 years is £1800/year. Average diesel over the last decade say 120p/L, so 340 gal at 50mpg average in our Large saloon is 17,000 miles per year.

I know the newer battery systems are more efficient, longer lasting, and cheaper with economies of scale etc, but even now the premium for a Fiat 500 BEV over the petrol one is enough to buy 100,000 miles worth of unleaded.

Paul

[Arborbridge]

Plus people buying evs seem now to buy huge SUVs the size of a tank, which use more energy both in manufacture and use, as well as clogging up parking spaces and narrow roads.

Most ICEs I see are SUVs as big as tanks! They have been clogging up roads for a long time, so I expect those drivers would want to migrate to a simmilar sized EV.

Speaking personally, I think the ID3 I've ordered is slightly smaller than my current B class Merc. so - if ever arrives - I'll be taking up slightly less room on the road.

Arb.

[88V8]

.....the premium for a Fiat 500 BEV over the petrol one is enough to buy 100,000 miles worth of unleaded.

Irrelevant.
Those who buy EVs aren't motivated by economy.
They're trying to save the planet.

V8 (and happy to pay for the 'green crap' on their electricity bills)

[Urbandreamer]

Back to the original topic, $22k for new batteries after 9 years is £1800/year. Average diesel over the last decade say 120p/L, so 340 gal at 50mpg average in our Large saloon is 17,000 miles per year.

Back to the original topic. You are talking about a car company with a terrible reputation for out of warranty service. One that, like all car companies, would prefer to sell new cars. Do you go to VW when you need an entire new petrol engine for your VW car? Would you change the entire engine because it needed a new EGR valve or turbo? I know that I didn't go to Citroen when I needed the entire hydropneumatic suspension changing (which was expensive).

Tesla, well let us see what can happen in the US if you have a battery pack problem.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7Q0nNkQTCo
By the way, think on the term "battery". A battery technically is a group of cells. It is at last theoretically possible to replace failing cells on a case by case basis.

If you search for Mr Rossmann you will find another video of him ranting about BMW's instructions that owners can not open the hood/bonnet on their car. They are NOT permitted. No not even to change the pollen filter themselves!

This is NOT a electric car thing, it's a BAD COMPANY thing.

Personally I would seriously think twice about buying a Tesla, leaf or a BMW. Purely because of past examples. We all remember BMW's service light that required you to visit a BMW service station, regardless of the service carried out (for a time). Nissan tried to charge an OZ car owner $33k (oz) for a new battery. After the outcry they contacted him directly. They also are replacing poorly performing batteries at a reduced cost, which IMHO they need to if they want to keep selling the leaf. Arguably their battery decisions were right at the time. But they have lead to batteries that deteriorate at a significant rate.

Other manufacturers seem to be having less issues with their batteries and after market businesses are starting up.

As for DIY, there is a very steep learning curve. The voltages and chemicals can be lethal. Insulated tools are easily available. Less so the experience needed to safely use them. It use to be that a large container of baking soda was a safety item, when batteries were acid based. Lithium, I haven't a clue other than avoiding accidents in the first place. Then again normal car's are not without hazard.

However there is no getting away from it. While $22k may be excessive, an entire new battery will cost well in excess of £10k. How much, well how big a battery? I can point to a company intending to charge less than £5k, but the battery is for a Twizzy and only 12kwh.

Cost is the one reason that I have not replaced my old banger with an old electric car, despite my desire to.
That said my next car will be a BEV, regardless.

[DrFfybes]

Back to the original topic, $22k for new batteries after 9 years is £1800/year. Average diesel over the last decade say 120p/L, so 340 gal at 50mpg average in our Large saloon is 17,000 miles per year.

Back to the original topic. You are talking about a car company with a terrible reputation for out of warranty service. One that, like all car companies, would prefer to sell new cars. Do you go to VW when you need an entire new petrol engine for your VW car? Would you change the entire engine because it needed a new EGR valve or turbo? I know that I didn't go to Citroen when I needed the entire hydropneumatic suspension changing (which was expensive).

[...]

Cost is the one reason that I have not replaced my old banger with an old electric car, despite my desire to.
That said my next car will be a BEV, regardless.

Same here, I probably will go BEV when I next change, although that is likely to be several years down the line.

How about looking at it from the other side?

A BEV Fiat 500 is about £13k more than a petrol one. About 1900 gallons. At Honest John's real world 48mpg for a petrol 500, that's 90,000 miles of driving paid for upfront. Unless you lease them, you really really have to want one to get one.

Paul

[JohnB]

There is the reduced servicing cost, and the better acceleration making it more fun, but still that's too big a gap to bridge for that car. But much cheaper small cars are coming out of China, and a new dedicated BEV design is going to be cheaper and better than a retrofit.

I'm in this space, but luckily I can afford to wait some time before replacing my Hyundai i10

[AF62]

A BEV Fiat 500 is about £13k more than a petrol one. About 1900 gallons. At Honest John's real world 48mpg for a petrol 500, that's 90,000 miles of driving paid for upfront. Unless you lease them, you really really have to want one to get one.

Paul

The price difference is less extreme with other makes.

The TV show Fifth Gear, which is now only covering electric cars recently looked at the cost of ownership of a new Vauxhall Corsa, comparing petrol to electric - https://youtu.be/nkA3Oi7Tztg

Although the electric Corsa cost £4.5k more than the petrol version, doing 7,500 miles a year over 4 years, the electric Corsa was £2.5k cheaper in the total cost over that time.

[bungeejumper]

Although the electric Corsa cost £4.5k more than the petrol version, doing 7,500 miles a year over 4 years, the electric Corsa was £2.5k cheaper in the total cost over that time.

Well, yes and no. On paper, they did find the £2.5K saving you've mentioned. (They were assuming that EVs would remain free of road tax for four years, of course, whereas in fact that's only guaranteed for the next two years.) And they were also assuming that you'd be able to carry on charging your EV at 5p per kilowatt hour, which is far from guaranteed.

But that's just quibbling. The bigger downside risk is in the car's depreciation, which they didn't mention because they were thinking only about leasing with a known residual value. And fair enough, because most new cars are bought that way, and more fool the leasing company if it gets its sums wrong.

However, for anybody who (a) buys his new EV outright, or (b) buys a used car with a bank loan, the maths are totally different.

The cold hard truth (as far as bungee is concerned) is that nobody is going to want to buy your £30K car in five years unless they can get it for a pocketful of loose change. In five years from now, new EVs will do 700 miles on a charge, and nobody - but nobody - will want a superannuated crate that promises 220 miles but delivers maybe 150 miles on a set of five year old batteries that will cost ten grand to replace when they come up for renewal in, oooh, let's say four years' time.

Am I exaggerating? (Honestly, would I do that? ) Even in America, a set of 60 kwh batteries for a Nissan Leaf will set you back $10,000. And, given that a five year old Leaf only offered you a paltry 200 mile range to start with, and that its batteries were never designed to last much more than eight years, you might just reflect that the combined weight of the oncoming hit to your bank balance, plus the clear superiority of the more modern cars, would pretty much trash the residual value of the car.

Which is where we came in, I think?

BJ

[quelquod]

“ most new cars are bought that way, and more fool the leasing company if it gets its sums wrong. “

And

“you might just reflect that the combined weight of the oncoming hit to your bank balance, plus the clear superiority of the more modern cars, would pretty much trash the residual value of the car.”

Leasing companies have been in the game a long time. Any hit on the residual will hit the leasing payments equally so I think the arguments between buying outright and leasing will be unchanged from where we are?

[AF62]

But that's just quibbling. The bigger downside risk is in the car's depreciation, which they didn't mention because they were thinking only about leasing with a known residual value. And fair enough, because most new cars are bought that way, and more fool the leasing company if it gets its sums wrong.

BJ

So just lease it! Although I thought the Fifth Gear piece was comparing PCP costs not leasing but I may have misremembered.

[9873210]

There's an assumption that improvements in battery technology will be available for new cars, but if you replace a battery on an old car you will have to use only the old battery tech. These would reconditioned batteries or old new stock, because the older tech will no longer be manufactured.

This might be true for cars with small production runs or very customer unfriendly manufacturers, but I'd expect improvements to become available either through the manufacturer or independents.

[JohnB]

Its hardly an argument against BEVs to say that they are improving rapidly, and might leave early adopters with a big depreciation hit. I think very few battery changes have been done so far because 1) the batteries lasted longer than predicted) 2) current vehicles are better than the old. If both trends continue, you will get 200k lifetime batteries, and your car's residual value after 10 years will be dominated by its battery, which be in demand for smoothing power generation, in your home or more likely in a 40' container.

[bungeejumper]

Its hardly an argument against BEVs to say that they are improving rapidly, and might leave early adopters with a big depreciation hit.

Completely agree. I wasn't arguing against BEVs - my next car will certainly be such a beast. But rather objecting that the depreciation of the present generation will be decided by how well their batteries (and their range) is holding up against the then-current models. And that the 5th Gear programme was missing something important by focusing only on the running costs.

Agree with quelquod (I think?) that the PCP and leasing industry is old enough and wealthy enough to take its decisions wisely, and that the actuaries are working hard on getting their depreciation guesses right. They do, of course, make bad mistakes - they've taken a huge hit on fast-depreciating diesel cars in the last six or seven years - but it won't worry customers. My guess is that we'll see PCP rates for EVs rising quite fast as the reality of EV depreciation sinks in. But that's just a view, and other views are available.

I think very few battery changes have been done so far because 1) the batteries lasted longer than predicted)

You don't think it's because not many EVs have been around for ten years yet, so we wouldn't be able to know?

2) current vehicles are better than the old. If both trends continue, you will get 200k lifetime batteries, and your car's residual value after 10 years will be dominated by its battery, which be in demand for smoothing power generation, in your home or more likely in a 40' container.

Agree on all those points. The future is going to be great. My point is that older EV tech is going to get ground up quite small by the massive disparity compared with the newer cars. Depreciation is likely to be a bit of a killer. I could be wrong - maybe we'll not want long-distance cars (or any cars) in five/ten years' time, because we'll all be getting around in robo-taxis?

BJ