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Climate matters

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dspp
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Re: Climate matters

#383884

Postby dspp » February 5th, 2021, 4:30 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
dspp wrote:Palcacocha rising

"Human-caused global heating is directly responsible for the threat of a devastating flood in Peru that is the subject of a lawsuit against the German energy company RWE, according to groundbreaking new research."

This is the latest in a long legal & environmental saga
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... study-says
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... d-timebomb
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Palcacocha

Looking at the photos you can see how Huaraz is sprawling

regards, dspp


Periodic devastation from catastrophic glacial lake drainage is not a new phenomenon. Friends of mine were very nearly swept away in Greenland by such a flood caused by the build-up of summer meltwaters, which, when reaching a certain size, lift the ice dam, so that the lake drains away in hours. Something that happened about every 10 years. They had moved camp the day before. That was 50 years ago.
People should not live in such dangerous places.


Nimrod,
I happen to know these Peruvian places very well and am very aware of the dangers of being beneath either the lakes or the glaciers, as indeed are the locals. Very few of them in this area exhibit the mechanism your friends observed. There are many reasons for the 'alluvions' as the locals term them, but amongst them climate change would appear to be one factor. I will be interested to see how the courts rule, it seems to be climbing the legal ladder.
regards,
dspp

Nimrod103
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Re: Climate matters

#383900

Postby Nimrod103 » February 5th, 2021, 4:58 pm

dspp wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
dspp wrote:Palcacocha rising

"Human-caused global heating is directly responsible for the threat of a devastating flood in Peru that is the subject of a lawsuit against the German energy company RWE, according to groundbreaking new research."

This is the latest in a long legal & environmental saga
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... study-says
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... d-timebomb
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Palcacocha

Looking at the photos you can see how Huaraz is sprawling

regards, dspp


Periodic devastation from catastrophic glacial lake drainage is not a new phenomenon. Friends of mine were very nearly swept away in Greenland by such a flood caused by the build-up of summer meltwaters, which, when reaching a certain size, lift the ice dam, so that the lake drains away in hours. Something that happened about every 10 years. They had moved camp the day before. That was 50 years ago.
People should not live in such dangerous places.


Nimrod,
I happen to know these Peruvian places very well and am very aware of the dangers of being beneath either the lakes or the glaciers, as indeed are the locals. Very few of them in this area exhibit the mechanism your friends observed. There are many reasons for the 'alluvions' as the locals term them, but amongst them climate change would appear to be one factor. I will be interested to see how the courts rule, it seems to be climbing the legal ladder.
regards,
dspp


You are right, it is a different mechanism. So in 1941 the glacier ended in the lake, calved an iceberg, which caused a wave which damaged the lip of the lake and resulted in a fatal mud slide.
But now, the glacier has retreated and terminates on land, so there is no risk of a wave. Meltwater just goes into the lake, and flows out. All peacefully. Surely this new situation is safer, not more dangerous?

dspp
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Re: Climate matters

#383955

Postby dspp » February 5th, 2021, 7:13 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
dspp wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
Periodic devastation from catastrophic glacial lake drainage is not a new phenomenon. Friends of mine were very nearly swept away in Greenland by such a flood caused by the build-up of summer meltwaters, which, when reaching a certain size, lift the ice dam, so that the lake drains away in hours. Something that happened about every 10 years. They had moved camp the day before. That was 50 years ago.
People should not live in such dangerous places.


Nimrod,
I happen to know these Peruvian places very well and am very aware of the dangers of being beneath either the lakes or the glaciers, as indeed are the locals. Very few of them in this area exhibit the mechanism your friends observed. There are many reasons for the 'alluvions' as the locals term them, but amongst them climate change would appear to be one factor. I will be interested to see how the courts rule, it seems to be climbing the legal ladder.
regards,
dspp


You are right, it is a different mechanism. So in 1941 the glacier ended in the lake, calved an iceberg, which caused a wave which damaged the lip of the lake and resulted in a fatal mud slide.
But now, the glacier has retreated and terminates on land, so there is no risk of a wave. Meltwater just goes into the lake, and flows out. All peacefully. Surely this new situation is safer, not more dangerous?


Of the top of my head, and noting that it has been 40-years since I last paid serious attention, there are several mechanisms on most of these Andean glacier end lakes, including most of the Blanca ones and many can contribute to any one event:

1) earthquake directly triggering morainic dam collapse;
2a) earthquake triggering glacier serac which then results in wave overtopping morainic dam and/or morainic dam collapse;
2b) earthquake triggering rockslide which then results in wave overtopping morainic dam and/or morainic dam collapse;
3) glacier serac calving due to glacier movement which then results in wave overtopping morainic dam and/or morainic dam collapse;
4) stranded ice core of morainic dam melting out leading to dam collapse;
5) semipermeable morainic dam 'leaking' meltwater more slowly than glacial melt, leading to overtopping & dam collapse through erosion at crest (or sidewall junction);
6) under-ice lubrication from increased meltwater leading to widespread glacier collapse thence down over the rockslab glacis into the lake and various of the above, can have earthquake trigger events;
7) weakening and undermining and slumping of downhill dam face, not very often in these areas.

In all these cases what was observed was that the fuller the lakes are the lower the strength reserve of the end dams is, and that with warming these lakes are spending more of the season at higher states, increasing downstream risk. Back in the 80s/90s which was when I was most active in the region they were cutting artificial spillways with concrete and etc linings to reduce the lake levels artificially so as to increase the strength reserve. If you look at the picture in the article you will see the upper (intake) end of one of those spillways in the foreground. That was Hidrandina doing it back then often funded by German foreign aid money, there is a long history of Germans in these zones. Then I think it got called something else.

Note that retreating glaciers can increase serac fall risk and general glacier collapse risk as well as decrease it. In both cases it all depends.

Most of the locals don't understand the precise mechanisms but they are very well aware of the generalities and the consequent dangers. I happen to have known a lot of these ranges extremely well and I have observed the before and after of these events, and I have thought "I camped there last year and now it is under 30' of alluvial boulder debris from that event, yikes".

It is very difficult to look around one and not think that climate is a significant influence, and thence to not make the link to at least a partial contribution by mankind. Personally I am sure that there are many other factors as well, and so allocating % human blame is tricky. Which is why the courts are playing football with all these sorts of cases.

I don't think there are any absolutes with this. But I do think we are all to an extent guilty. How big an extent I am very unsure of.

regards, dspp

dspp
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Re: Climate matters

#390043

Postby dspp » February 25th, 2021, 6:53 pm

"The Atlantic Ocean circulation that underpins the Gulf Stream, the weather system that brings warm and mild weather to Europe, is at its weakest in more than a millennium, and climate breakdown is the probable cause, according to new data.

Further weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could result in more storms battering the UK, more intense winters and an increase in damaging heatwaves and droughts across Europe.

Scientists predict that the AMOC will weaken further if global heating continues, and could reduce by about 34% to 45% by the end of this century, which could bring us close to a “tipping point” at which the system could become irrevocably unstable. A weakened Gulf Stream would also raise sea levels on the Atlantic coast of the US, with potentially disastrous consequences."


etc https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... scientists

- dspp

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Re: Climate matters

#390056

Postby Sorcery » February 25th, 2021, 7:28 pm

dspp wrote:"The Atlantic Ocean circulation that underpins the Gulf Stream, the weather system that brings warm and mild weather to Europe, is at its weakest in more than a millennium, and climate breakdown is the probable cause, according to new data.

Further weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could result in more storms battering the UK, more intense winters and an increase in damaging heatwaves and droughts across Europe.

Scientists predict that the AMOC will weaken further if global heating continues, and could reduce by about 34% to 45% by the end of this century, which could bring us close to a “tipping point” at which the system could become irrevocably unstable. A weakened Gulf Stream would also raise sea levels on the Atlantic coast of the US, with potentially disastrous consequences."


etc https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... scientists

- dspp


I honestly don't think the Guardian is a good source for climate articles. There is a reason it's free, (it has an agenda).
From the linked article :
The Atlantic Ocean circulation that underpins the Gulf Stream, the weather system that brings warm and mild weather to Europe, is at its weakest in more than a millennium, and climate breakdown is the probable cause, according to new data.

Further weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could result in more storms battering the UK, more intense winters and an increase in damaging heatwaves and droughts across Europe.

Scientists predict that the AMOC will weaken further if global heating continues, and could reduce by about 34% to 45% by the end of this century, which could bring us close to a “tipping point” at which the system could become irrevocably unstable. A weakened Gulf Stream would also raise sea levels on the Atlantic coast of the US, with potentially disastrous consequences.


There are other reasons why the AMOC may be slowing down :
a) We are at the cusp of a new ice age
b) Fresh water melt will sink in salt water upsetting the Overturning Circulation, the OC part of AMOC
c) Climate has always changed, it's unlikely we have anything to do with it, especially seawater temperatures at depth below 100m.

In more optimistic news : https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/25/ ... 000-sq-km/

dspp
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Re: Climate matters

#390162

Postby dspp » February 26th, 2021, 9:13 am

Sorcery wrote:b) Fresh water melt will sink in salt water upsetting the Overturning Circulation, the OC part of AMOC


Er, and what might perhaps be causing all that fresh water to outflow ? And what happened to the NAO on previous occasions when that occurred ?

- dspp

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Re: Climate matters

#390277

Postby Sorcery » February 26th, 2021, 2:40 pm

dspp wrote:
Sorcery wrote:b) Fresh water melt will sink in salt water upsetting the Overturning Circulation, the OC part of AMOC


Er, and what might perhaps be causing all that fresh water to outflow ? And what happened to the NAO on previous occasions when that occurred ?

- dspp


There is a study by the University of Washington, on the AMOC that is considerably less gloomy :
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/04/ ... ft-blamed/

Taken as a whole, the salinity of the Arctic Ocean is similar to the past, but the change in the freshwater pathway means the Eurasian Basin has gotten more saline while the Canada Basin has gotten fresher.

“The freshening on the Canadian side of the Arctic over the last few years represents a redistribution of freshwater, there does not seem to be a net freshening of the ocean,” Kwok said.


So who is correct?

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Re: Climate matters

#390286

Postby XFool » February 26th, 2021, 2:53 pm

Sorcery wrote:I honestly don't think the Guardian is a good source for climate articles. There is a reason it's free, (it has an agenda).

Ah! So not like The Telegraph, then?

:lol:

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Re: Climate matters

#390295

Postby Sorcery » February 26th, 2021, 3:13 pm

XFool wrote:
Sorcery wrote:I honestly don't think the Guardian is a good source for climate articles. There is a reason it's free, (it has an agenda).

Ah! So not like The Telegraph, then?

:lol:


The telegraph is not free. It is commercial and opinionated to the right.

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Re: Climate matters

#390297

Postby Sorcery » February 26th, 2021, 3:15 pm

Sorcery wrote:
dspp wrote:
Sorcery wrote:b) Fresh water melt will sink in salt water upsetting the Overturning Circulation, the OC part of AMOC


Er, and what might perhaps be causing all that fresh water to outflow ? And what happened to the NAO on previous occasions when that occurred ?

- dspp


There is a study by the University of Washington, on the AMOC that is considerably less gloomy :
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/04/ ... ft-blamed/

Taken as a whole, the salinity of the Arctic Ocean is similar to the past, but the change in the freshwater pathway means the Eurasian Basin has gotten more saline while the Canada Basin has gotten fresher.

“The freshening on the Canadian side of the Arctic over the last few years represents a redistribution of freshwater, there does not seem to be a net freshening of the ocean,” Kwok said.


So who is correct?


Actually scratch that, The university of Washingtion study is dated 2012, the guardian article refers to a more recent study/paper. It's possible things have changed since then.

dspp
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Re: Climate matters

#390302

Postby dspp » February 26th, 2021, 3:38 pm

Sorcery wrote:
Sorcery wrote:
dspp wrote:
Er, and what might perhaps be causing all that fresh water to outflow ? And what happened to the NAO on previous occasions when that occurred ?

- dspp


There is a study by the University of Washington, on the AMOC that is considerably less gloomy :
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/04/ ... ft-blamed/

Taken as a whole, the salinity of the Arctic Ocean is similar to the past, but the change in the freshwater pathway means the Eurasian Basin has gotten more saline while the Canada Basin has gotten fresher.

“The freshening on the Canadian side of the Arctic over the last few years represents a redistribution of freshwater, there does not seem to be a net freshening of the ocean,” Kwok said.


So who is correct?


Actually scratch that, The university of Washingtion study is dated 2012, the guardian article refers to a more recent study/paper. It's possible things have changed since then.


It is worth reading through some of the wikis on this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutdown_ ... irculation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinrich_event
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas

Some other recent pop-science type articles
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2950/arct ... -currents/
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03 ... ppen-again

and then this is one of the articles that firmed up a hypothesis that had been floating around for decades before (because I remember discussing it with some G&G colleagues in the 1990s), the episodic Lake Agassiz emptying
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn ... to-a-halt/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Agassiz

regards, dspp

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Re: Climate matters

#390321

Postby XFool » February 26th, 2021, 4:20 pm

Sorcery wrote:
XFool wrote:
Sorcery wrote:I honestly don't think the Guardian is a good source for climate articles. There is a reason it's free, (it has an agenda).

Ah! So not like The Telegraph, then?

:lol:

The telegraph is not free. It is commercial and opinionated to the right.

Well yes! :D

BTW. The Guardian is also "commercial". It is just using a different business model to The Telegraph.

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Re: Climate matters

#395691

Postby dspp » March 15th, 2021, 10:56 am

"For his pains in pressing the urgency of the crisis facing Britain and for calling for strict lockdowns, Ferguson became a target for considerable vilification from commentators in the rightwing press and from those who were convinced Covid-19 was a fake and a conspiracy aimed at curtailing individual liberties. He was called Professor Lockdown; bots were set up to bombard him with hundreds of thousands of emails a day; and he was subjected to innumerable hacking attempts. The sheer weight of the aggression was “emotionally debilitating”, he recalls.

“I got a fair bit of abuse and it was quite stressful at times, not just for me but for my colleagues. It was part of a campaign to undermine the science behind the country’s Covid policy, and it was carried out by those who have taken an ideological stance opposing the lockdown.

“I can understand there are people for whom the last year has been a catastrophic experience because of the impacts that control measures have had on their lives. And for many of them it must be difficult to resist the disinformation which is ubiquitous on social media. However, it does not help when some mainstream newspapers publish comment columns that push that same disinformation about science – the Telegraph and the Spectator being notable examples.”

Such attacks are nothing new, Ferguson acknowledges. For several decades, climate scientists who have warned about the dangers of global heating have had to deal with similar vilification: targeted, highly personalised attacks mixed with the cherrypicking of evidence in order to try to discredit research.

“This is not a new phenomenon but it is something we are going to have to face up to in coming years,” he warns."


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... orse-covid

- dspp

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Re: Climate matters

#395801

Postby XFool » March 15th, 2021, 3:47 pm

dspp wrote:“I can understand there are people for whom the last year has been a catastrophic experience because of the impacts that control measures have had on their lives. And for many of them it must be difficult to resist the disinformation which is ubiquitous on social media. However, it does not help when some mainstream newspapers publish comment columns that push that same disinformation about science – the Telegraph and the Spectator being notable examples.”

Gee! Who'd a thunk it? :lol:

dspp wrote:Such attacks are nothing new, Ferguson acknowledges. For several decades, climate scientists who have warned about the dangers of global heating have had to deal with similar vilification: targeted, highly personalised attacks mixed with the cherrypicking of evidence in order to try to discredit research.

“This is not a new phenomenon but it is something we are going to have to face up to in coming years,” he warns."

Indeed.

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Re: Climate matters

#398618

Postby Sammy00 » March 24th, 2021, 12:01 pm

I have noticed that the last 10 years, winters are much warmer than before. Therefore, climate change is quite noticeable. It is a pity that the next generation will find it even harder to live in this world with such an environment.
My city has a fairly high level of radiation and I bought the radiation warning device because I was interested in controlling this level. It looks like a normal wristwatch, and I thought that maybe in 10-20 years people will wear not Apple watches, but such devices for their safety. It's scary.


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