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The Budget - 11 March 2020

including Budgets
PinkDalek
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The Budget - 11 March 2020

#275845

Postby PinkDalek » January 7th, 2020, 8:17 pm

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-launches-budget-process-to-usher-in-decade-of-renewal

Please keep any comments non political or this Topic will be moved elsewhere (and I'm not going there).

Snorvey
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Re: The Budget - 11 March 2020

#275847

Postby Snorvey » January 7th, 2020, 8:37 pm

Tax relief on pension contributions.......IR35......employers national ins conts

GoSeigen
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Re: The Budget - 11 March 2020

#275890

Postby GoSeigen » January 8th, 2020, 6:41 am

PinkDalek wrote:https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-launches-budget-process-to-usher-in-decade-of-renewal

Please keep any comments non political or this Topic will be moved elsewhere (and I'm not going there).


This board is titled The Economy (aka the Political Economy). How can discussion of this topic possibly NOT be political?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_economy

Political economy is the study of production and trade and their relations with law, custom and government; and with the distribution of national income and wealth. As a discipline, political economy originated in moral philosophy, in the 18th century, to explore the administration of states' wealth, with "political" signifying the Greek word polity and "economy" signifying the Greek word "okonomie" (household management). The earliest works of political economy are usually attributed to the British scholars Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, and David Ricardo, although they were preceded by the work of the French physiocrats, such as François Quesnay (1694–1774) and Anne-Robert-Jacques Turgot (1727–1781).[1]

In the late 19th century, the term "economics" gradually began to replace the term "political economy" with the rise of mathematical modelling coinciding with the publication of an influential textbook by Alfred Marshall in 1890.


[My bold]
If you wish posters to refrain from party-political statements I suppose that is okay, but it's hard to get away from the fact that our system typically places one of the parties in control of the government and its economic policies.

Re: the Budget, it's remarkable that this government has completely abandoned the austerity policy of previous administrations since 2010 (and so late that it's probably the worst possible timing) when government finances are in a far far worse state now than at that time. Recall that the canard of "high" public debt levels was a prime justification for the austerity policy. In 2019 government borrowing is far higher than in 2010: £1800bn vs £1000bn, and after ten years of "austerity" the government is still running a budget deficit.


GS

PinkDalek
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Re: The Budget - 11 March 2020

#275938

Postby PinkDalek » January 8th, 2020, 11:36 am

GoSeigen wrote:This board is titled The Economy (aka the Political Economy). How can discussion of this topic possibly NOT be political ...


This board is entitled The Economy (including Budgets), under the Polite Debate & Discussion banner [my bold].

I was hinting at the type of discussion that ensues on the parallel board and where posts from around TLF are often consigned. Sorry if that was not obvious but I think you correctly picked up on it in your mention of refraining from party-political statements.

Thanks for the lecture anyway.

funduffer
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Re: The Budget - 11 March 2020

#278464

Postby funduffer » January 19th, 2020, 9:28 am

The spending and tax relief changes have been signalled already in the GE - business rates, NHS spending, NI thresholds, infrastructure for the North etc.

The questions for me are:

Will there be any revised fiscal 'rules', and how will they be justified'?

Will there be any tax rises, by stealth or more overtly, given the expected rise in the deficit and hence the national debt?

Will be interesting to see.

FD

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Re: The Budget - 11 March 2020

#278559

Postby Lootman » January 19th, 2020, 3:54 pm

funduffer wrote:The spending and tax relief changes have been signalled already in the GE - business rates, NHS spending, NI thresholds, infrastructure for the North etc.

No doubt, but most new governments like to spring the odd surprise, and that is what is more interesting to me to speculate about.

Also if a new government is going to pass something unpopular, like a benefits cut or a tax cut for the better off, then it is customary to do that in year one to give the voters time to get over it and move on.

So I am hoping for a "surprise" tax break, maybe on inheritance tax, or increasing the threshold for higher-rate income tax. After all, that is what the loyal Tory base want and they can't just be ignored after giving Boris such a handy majority. Especially whilst there isn't really a credible opposition.

Of course, even the Tories hate property owners now so more stamp duty for foreign buyers looks baked in.

Steveam
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Re: The Budget - 11 March 2020

#278647

Postby Steveam » January 20th, 2020, 2:46 am

I don’t think they’ll do anything that reduces government income as they’re already overcommitted on the expenditure side and the uncertainties of the EU negotiations are to come. I think the big changes will come on pension tax relief/limits/LTA and announcements on social care. By changing the fiscal rules they’ll give themselves room for more/better focussed infrastructure spend (focus: north of England and the regions). I think the “rich” London and southeast are in for a tough time. I doubt they’ll raise taxes either directly or by stealth as that would be a step too far for the Tory right.

gryffron
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Re: The Budget - 11 March 2020

#278670

Postby gryffron » January 20th, 2020, 8:26 am

Yes, the LTA is really hammering govt Pensions now. That's why they can't get doctors to work overtime. So big LTA changes likely. Helps the rich and justified by recruitment to the NHS.

Gryff

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Re: The Budget - 11 March 2020

#278684

Postby 77ss » January 20th, 2020, 9:19 am

funduffer wrote:....
Will there be any tax rises, by stealth or more overtly, given the expected rise in the deficit and hence the national debt?....


I am watching for any changes to the taxation of dividends. Rate and/or level at which it becomes payable.

Osborne introduced an extra tax back in 2015, and once a precedent as been set, subsequent Chancellors have a habit of increasing anything that isn't income tax. Remember when Insurance Premium Tax was 2.5%? Now at 12% (for the standard rate).

I am making my annual ISA plans with this possibility in mind.


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