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Autumn Statement

including Budgets
ursaminortaur
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Re: Autumn Statement

#630240

Postby ursaminortaur » November 27th, 2023, 3:41 pm

Lootman wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:The trend for decades had been computerisation of office tasks, automation of factory floors in heavy industries and car plants, and replacement of those heavy industries by newer industries involving computers. The old manual jobs were disappearing hence there was a need for a more highly educated workforce. Unfortunately just allowing more people to go to University without also boosting their pre-university educational attainments combined with leaving which courses the Universities offered to the market led to many students applying for humanity courses rather than STEM courses as they were seen to be easier (and even to the Universities creating new doddy courses). I worked for a polytechnic which became a University which whilst it was a polytechnic had a large engineering department within a few years of its becoming a University that had gone as it was cheaper to provide other courses.

As a humanities graduate myself, I am not sure I would agree that such degrees are "easier". Nor that they are necessarily more useless.

Part of the problem is that you now need a degree for jobs that historically never needed one. For example one younger couple I know both have degrees. He is a nurse and she is a teacher. 40 years ago neither job required a degree. Now both do. But the job is the same.

And with 2 small kids they are really struggling financially. A degree used to be a passport to a well-paid job. Now it is not, although not having a degree just means you are seen as a bit of a thickie with prospects that are not good.


Yes, unfortunately that was another foreseeable consequence of expanding education. With so many people having degrees their value was diluted and employers increasingly used having a degree as a shortlisting criteria for jobs which traditionally hadn't required degrees.

CliffEdge
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Re: Autumn Statement

#630245

Postby CliffEdge » November 27th, 2023, 3:45 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
Lootman wrote:As a humanities graduate myself, I am not sure I would agree that such degrees are "easier". Nor that they are necessarily more useless.

Part of the problem is that you now need a degree for jobs that historically never needed one. For example one younger couple I know both have degrees. He is a nurse and she is a teacher. 40 years ago neither job required a degree. Now both do. But the job is the same.

And with 2 small kids they are really struggling financially. A degree used to be a passport to a well-paid job. Now it is not, although not having a degree just means you are seen as a bit of a thickie with prospects that are not good.


Yes, unfortunately that was another foreseeable consequence of expanding education. With so many people having degrees their value was diluted and employers increasingly used having a degree as a shortlisting criteria for jobs which traditionally hadn't required degrees.

NHS degrees and teaching degrees or PGCEs are vocational and not common as a dog poo on your shoe.

Nimrod103
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Re: Autumn Statement

#630274

Postby Nimrod103 » November 27th, 2023, 5:56 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
Lootman wrote:As a humanities graduate myself, I am not sure I would agree that such degrees are "easier". Nor that they are necessarily more useless.

Part of the problem is that you now need a degree for jobs that historically never needed one. For example one younger couple I know both have degrees. He is a nurse and she is a teacher. 40 years ago neither job required a degree. Now both do. But the job is the same.

And with 2 small kids they are really struggling financially. A degree used to be a passport to a well-paid job. Now it is not, although not having a degree just means you are seen as a bit of a thickie with prospects that are not good.


Yes, unfortunately that was another foreseeable consequence of expanding education. With so many people having degrees their value was diluted and employers increasingly used having a degree as a shortlisting criteria for jobs which traditionally hadn't required degrees.


More to the point it means they have effectively wasted 3 years of their lives learning stuff which either should have been taught at school or later on the job. And they have run up large debts to boot.

spasmodicus
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Re: Autumn Statement

#630361

Postby spasmodicus » November 28th, 2023, 10:02 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:
Yes, unfortunately that was another foreseeable consequence of expanding education. With so many people having degrees their value was diluted and employers increasingly used having a degree as a shortlisting criteria for jobs which traditionally hadn't required degrees.


More to the point it means they have effectively wasted 3 years of their lives learning stuff which either should have been taught at school or later on the job. And they have run up large debts to boot.


Yes, average (under)graduate student debt in UK 2023 is reportedly around £45k. Furthermore, this debt is built up over three years or so, so there is a also a considerable lost opportunity cost for the wages not earned and the skills which would be acquired while doing a "proper job". The list on this website shows the kind of wages expected in various trades that allegedly are in demand, but for which a university education is not required
https://uk.indeed.com/career-advice/finding-a-job/skilled-trade-jobs-in-demand
Interestingly, at the lower end of the scale the wages are apparently below the national minimum wage. At the higher end, you may earn a salary comparable to that of a qualified teacher.

I have grandchildren currently going through the education system (in years 4 to 11). The problem seems to be that most(all?) of their teachers have never done a "proper" job and all have degrees themselves and are probably not very well equipped to explain the dynamics of the labour market to their little charges.

S

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Re: Autumn Statement

#630448

Postby Oggy » November 28th, 2023, 4:48 pm

The basic lesson for any investor - big or small - is not to invest in the UK. Low cost global trackers are my preferred choice of funds - E.g. Fidelity Index World fund and such like. The only exception to this dictum in my portfolio is Fundsmith Equity. However this may change when Terry Smith takes retirement. All of my funds are with HL or AJ Bell and I have to say that so far, all is not too bad. Of course, I cannot wholly escape paying the legalised theft that is income tax once I drawdown on them, but I do feel that a visit to a tax advisor will be money well spent.

The UK has had it in my book. Not enough folk giving, far too many taking and no sign of it improving. A recipe for economic disaster which no government wants to tackle, primarily as it would lose them a shed load of votes.

Lootman
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Re: Autumn Statement

#630449

Postby Lootman » November 28th, 2023, 4:58 pm

Oggy wrote:The basic lesson for any investor - big or small - is not to invest in the UK. Low cost global trackers are my preferred choice of funds - E.g. Fidelity Index World fund and such like. The only exception to this dictum in my portfolio is Fundsmith Equity. However this may change when Terry Smith takes retirement. All of my funds are with HL or AJ Bell and I have to say that so far, all is not too bad. Of course, I cannot wholly escape paying the legalised theft that is income tax once I drawdown on them, but I do feel that a visit to a tax advisor will be money well spent.

The UK has had it in my book. Not enough folk giving, far too many taking and no sign of it improving. A recipe for economic disaster which no government wants to tackle, primarily as it would lose them a shed load of votes.

I am pretty much out of the UK with my investments. I only have one UK holding, which is a UK smaller companies IT that has done well. I have held off selling as it will trigger a big CGT bill. But it will go in April.

Then my only UK exposure will be in global funds and trackers, so probably about 4% in the UK, consistent with the UK weighting in the global index.

I just do not see what the UK uniquely offers. Nor sterling.

Oggy
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Re: Autumn Statement

#630473

Postby Oggy » November 28th, 2023, 6:59 pm

Lootman

Much as I would like to invest in the UK, I cannot afford to donate all of my hard-earned to charity. Economically, the UK is on a clear path to basket-case status. For sure there is still a huge amount of capital remaining to fritter away and hence the UK remains reasonably intact financially, but the corrosion mechanism is now well established and will continue to gradually eat away at the foundations until the whole edifice comes crashing down. The sad thing is I really cannot see anyone attempting to arrest the corrosion, and even if they could, I fear they would not get anyway near the reins of power to do so.

CliffEdge
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Re: Autumn Statement

#630486

Postby CliffEdge » November 28th, 2023, 8:32 pm

The UK as I know it and knew it will cease to exist within a few years. This always happens with administrative centres of former large empires. We had a chance but Brexit threw it away. The EU may yet step in to save us when things get dangerous for them.

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Re: Autumn Statement

#630505

Postby MuddyBoots » November 28th, 2023, 10:46 pm

CliffEdge wrote:The UK as I know it and knew it will cease to exist within a few years. This always happens with administrative centres of former large empires. We had a chance but Brexit threw it away. The EU may yet step in to save us when things get dangerous for them.


At the moment it's probably fair to say that southeast England is carrying the rest of the UK to some extent, more so Scotland, Wales & N Ireland through the Barnett formula. The breakup of the Union with independence for the nations might at least give England another chance without having to subsidise the other countries, which could apply to join the EU instead.

SalvorHardin
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Re: Autumn Statement

#630520

Postby SalvorHardin » November 29th, 2023, 8:11 am

Lootman wrote:I am pretty much out of the UK with my investments. I only have one UK holding, which is a UK smaller companies IT that has done well. I have held off selling as it will trigger a big CGT bill. But it will go in April.

Then my only UK exposure will be in global funds and trackers, so probably about 4% in the UK, consistent with the UK weighting in the global index.

I just do not see what the UK uniquely offers. Nor sterling.

The UK has a few companies than are of interest to people like us, whose preferred stockmarket nowadays is America (also Canada for me). Most of these are multinationals who don't do much business in the UK. Games Workshop is one that springs to mind; its most recent annual report showed that UK sales were just over 21% of the total, with North America leading with 43%. I recently bought some Smith & Nephew shares as a recovery play following some serious mismanagement in recent years (its North American sales are 53% of its total sales. I wouldn’t be surprised if Smith & Nephew company emigrated to America in the next few years.

Some companies will benefit from the rent seeking opportunities that the state and various quangos create, using the law to reduce (or even eliminate) competition. Housebuilders like to complain about planning restrictions driving up costs, but in turn these raise the price of new housing. The sheer volume of subsidies being thrown at net zero is something to look at – it’s often far easier to make money off the state than by running a business.

Then there is the creeping effect of the energy regulations which make it far more expensive to let out older commercial properties (because of the need to make them more energy efficient). This should take a fair bit of property off the market. It’s much harder to pay for upgrades if you’re charging regional rents rather than the vastly higher Central London rents.

Of course there's always the risk that a future government will cut back the red tape and take on the NIMBYs and the environmental lobby (realistically this isn’t going to happen beyond a few small changes).

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Re: Autumn Statement

#630560

Postby Oggy » November 29th, 2023, 10:49 am

At the moment it's probably fair to say that southeast England is carrying the rest of the UK to some extent, more so Scotland, Wales & N Ireland through the Barnett formula. The breakup of the Union with independence for the nations might at least give England another chance without having to subsidise the other countries, which could apply to join the EU instead.


I fear SE England would have to declare UDI from the rest of England for that to work. Proud Lancastrian that I am, The North and much of the Midlands/SW are far too economically gone for even England alone to be viable. For sure it would last longer before the inevitable implosion though....

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Re: Autumn Statement

#672579

Postby monabri » July 4th, 2024, 11:39 am

SalvorHardin wrote:
Lootman wrote:I am pretty much out of the UK with my investments. I only have one UK holding, which is a UK smaller companies IT that has done well. I have held off selling as it will trigger a big CGT bill. But it will go in April.

Then my only UK exposure will be in global funds and trackers, so probably about 4% in the UK, consistent with the UK weighting in the global index.

I just do not see what the UK uniquely offers. Nor sterling.

The UK has a few companies than are of interest to people like us, whose preferred stockmarket nowadays is America (also Canada for me). Most of these are multinationals who don't do much business in the UK. Games Workshop is one that springs to mind; its most recent annual report showed that UK sales were just over 21% of the total, with North America leading with 43%. I recently bought some Smith & Nephew shares as a recovery play following some serious mismanagement in recent years (its North American sales are 53% of its total sales. I wouldn’t be surprised if Smith & Nephew company emigrated to America in the next few years.

Some companies will benefit from the rent seeking opportunities that the state and various quangos create, using the law to reduce (or even eliminate) competition. Housebuilders like to complain about planning restrictions driving up costs, but in turn these raise the price of new housing. The sheer volume of subsidies being thrown at net zero is something to look at – it’s often far easier to make money off the state than by running a business.

Then there is the creeping effect of the energy regulations which make it far more expensive to let out older commercial properties (because of the need to make them more energy efficient). This should take a fair bit of property off the market. It’s much harder to pay for upgrades if you’re charging regional rents rather than the vastly higher Central London rents.

Of course there's always the risk that a future government will cut back the red tape and take on the NIMBYs and the environmental lobby (realistically this isn’t going to happen beyond a few small changes).


https://www.investegate.co.uk/across-th ... l-holdings

"The medical technology firm Smith & Nephew found itself at the top of the FTSE-100 this morning after the publication of a TR-1 filing which is a required disclosure when a party builds a stake of more than 3% in the business. This is the second such release filed in two days and concentrated investments like this especially in a large cap company can sometimes be seen as suggesting a takeover approach is looming. Shares were more than 6% higher an hour into Thursday’s trade."

scrumpyjack
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Re: Autumn Statement

#672582

Postby scrumpyjack » July 4th, 2024, 11:47 am

Lootman wrote:I just do not see what the UK uniquely offers. Nor sterling.


Stamp duty on share purchases
Weak economy and currency
‘windfall’ taxes
Economic success attracts envy rather than admiration
Gains taxed without allowance for inflation
Prospect of even higher taxes
All the above likely to get worse

What’s not to like ? :D

BobGe
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Re: Autumn Statement

#673220

Postby BobGe » July 7th, 2024, 6:41 am

Not forgetting the effective double taxation of dividend income.

1nvest
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Re: Autumn Statement

#674792

Postby 1nvest » July 17th, 2024, 11:05 am

scrumpyjack wrote:
Lootman wrote:I just do not see what the UK uniquely offers. Nor sterling.


Stamp duty on share purchases
Weak economy and currency
‘windfall’ taxes
Economic success attracts envy rather than admiration
Gains taxed without allowance for inflation
Prospect of even higher taxes
All the above likely to get worse

What’s not to like ? :D

Taxation is at multiple decades highs, inflation is back down to around target levels, fiscal drag and other factors are pulling in even more in taxes to the extent of over a £1 trillion+ in total tax revenues. Rightfully the present government should be looking to cut taxes as lower taxes lighter regulations promote inward investment/growth. Instead Labour seem more focused on adding additional stealth taxes that will stifle the growth its "balanced books" assumes will occur. The current picture being painted is more inclined to see the flight of capital, much has already vacated, many have their cases packed and sitting in the hallway ready to leave unless otherwise tempted to remain. The flight of that 1% that pay a third of the tax take will leave the rest having to pay 50% more in taxes just to fill that hole. 15% National Insurance, 30% basic rate tax, 30% VAT, but retrieved from elsewhere or via stealth given that Labour have said they wont increase the taxation rate of any of those - at least not until it has to U-turn on that promise due to the economic failure of not having promoted growth.

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Re: Autumn Statement

#674871

Postby 1nvest » July 17th, 2024, 6:38 pm

1.5 to 1 century ago and costs/taxes were somewhat the same/less as recent. The fundamental key difference between then and now is how Parliament has progressively directed towards social decline (encouraged martial break-up's/same sex marriages etc.) and for women to go out and work instead of staying at home as elderly/children carers/home makers.

The primary financial/economic change has been for rents and house prices to ... double-up. Both parents have to work to cover that additional expense, and in turn that leaves no one available for child or elderly care so strangers have to be employed for those duties. High demands for child and elderly care centres/homes at typically high costs to families.

Promoting migration has served to just scale migration, more migrants needed to care for earlier migrants who have aged. A net drain where former paid into contributions are diluted to additionally support migrants who've paid in less during their lifetime, leaving less for the former contributors when its their turn to become beneficiaries.

The high costs of rents, house prices, shortages and high costs of childcare, shortages and high cost of elderly care, over-stretched infrastructure ....etc. are a consequence of Parliaments own making. Doubling up the numbers seeking employment induces a tendency of more being underemployed and those having to be topped up by other taxpayers, it also suppresses wages to levels where even those on a 'reasonable' wage may also have to be supplemented with income support, housing benefits, child benefits.

Many opted to 'vote for change', Labour are now in government having had 20% of the population vote for it (8 out of every 10 didn't vote for Labour). The fundamental requirement for change is for the existing Parliament/system to be changed/replaced. As is things will only worsen. Social declines, worsening poverty, increased taxation in return for poorer services, increased congestion, smaller living and social spaces. That is after all what Parliament opines that the people want. Make the most of today, as things are only inclined to get worse. A legacy change from making things better for each subsequent generation to leaving the next generation worse off than their parent generation.

ADrunkenMarcus
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Re: Autumn Statement

#674889

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » July 17th, 2024, 10:03 pm

1nvest wrote:Rightfully the present government should be looking to cut taxes as lower taxes lighter regulations promote inward investment/growth.


Unfortunately the population is getting old and fat.

Very fat: two thirds of us are overweight. That has huge health consequences.

People are living longer (although that seems to have levelled off) and in increasing ill health. We have a demographic time bomb, pension liabilities and a relentless growth in demand for health and social care services.

That makes it rather hard to reduce taxes.

Best wishes


Mark.

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Re: Autumn Statement

#674900

Postby Nimrod103 » July 17th, 2024, 11:18 pm

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:
1nvest wrote:Rightfully the present government should be looking to cut taxes as lower taxes lighter regulations promote inward investment/growth.


Unfortunately the population is getting old and fat.

Very fat: two thirds of us are overweight. That has huge health consequences.


That may be true, but I fail to see the justification to impose the excess costs of 2/3 of the population onto the remaining 1/3. They need an urgent incentive to lose weight.

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:People are living longer (although that seems to have levelled off) and in increasing ill health. We have a demographic time bomb, pension liabilities and a relentless growth in demand for health and social care services.
That makes it rather hard to reduce taxes.


The relentless growth of pension liabilities is directly under government control. If they choose to turn off the spigot of money, or at least reduce the flow, they can easily do it. Likewise with social care services. Indeed NHS health costs are also under government control and could be constrained. There will come a time when just saying OK, we will pour more money in just has to stop.

Adamski
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Re: Autumn Statement

#674931

Postby Adamski » July 18th, 2024, 8:44 am

Nimrod103 wrote: Indeed NHS health costs are also under government control and could be constrained. There will come a time when just saying OK, we will pour more money in just has to stop.


Under Labour? :lol: Taxes are about to go sharply up, and will continue increasing. Just wait until the autumn budget.

Second home owners
Extra stamp duty on shares
Capital gains tax at marginal rates
Higher rate tax relief
Windfall taxes on oil and gas
Council tax re-rating
Plus a few surprises

Net zero and a population boom, living in transformative times, welcome to socialist Britain :D

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Re: Autumn Statement

#674970

Postby MuddyBoots » July 18th, 2024, 12:35 pm

Adamski wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote: Indeed NHS health costs are also under government control and could be constrained. There will come a time when just saying OK, we will pour more money in just has to stop.


Under Labour? :lol: Taxes are about to go sharply up, and will continue increasing. Just wait until the autumn budget.


The spending is not only at home, there's also foreign countries wanting British aid and military funding. Especially if Trump gets in and slows American money for Ukraine [Israel too? That'll be an interesting one to watch] , likely Europe will get pressed to make up the difference. The sanctions on Russia have cost us a lot in extra energy costs, without stopping the Russian war machine yet.


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