Collapse of the UK housing market

[Tara]

“The UK population continues to grow strongly and is forecast to continue doing so.”

Well the main reason for the growth in UK population is the neverending migration of various illegal migrants and undocumented criminals to the UK, who have to be housed at the taxpayers expense. They have also brought the NHS and various other social services to breaking point. This may all be good news for UK landlords, but not so good news for the vast majority of British people.

"Illegal" immigrants have a legal right to come here, and constitute about 10% of net emigration.

That sounds wonderful. Who would have known that illegal really meant legal? So basically you are saying that anyone in the world, legal or illegal, has a legal right to come to the UK and live here permanently at the UK taxpayers expense?

A pity that the British people were never asked about this, or informed about this.

[Spet0789]

“The UK population continues to grow strongly and is forecast to continue doing so.”

Well the main reason for the growth in UK population is the neverending migration of various illegal migrants and undocumented criminals to the UK, who have to be housed at the taxpayers expense. They have also brought the NHS and various other social services to breaking point. This may all be good news for UK landlords, but not so good news for the vast majority of British people.

Can you provide any data to back up your assertion that illegal migrants and criminals are the main reason for the growth in the U.K. population?

Daily Express editorials and BNP campaign leaflets don’t cut it.

As others have said, the main reason the NHS is at breaking point is an aging population.

[swill453]

That sounds wonderful. Who would have known that illegal really meant legal? So basically you are saying that anyone in the world, legal or illegal, has a legal right to come to the UK and live here permanently at the UK taxpayers expense?

Nobody said that.

Scott.

[Lanark]

“The UK population continues to grow strongly and is forecast to continue doing so.”

Well the main reason for the growth in UK population is the neverending migration of various illegal migrants and undocumented criminals to the UK, who have to be housed at the taxpayers expense. They have also brought the NHS and various other social services to breaking point. This may all be good news for UK landlords, but not so good news for the vast majority of British people.

"Illegal" immigrants have a legal right to come here, and constitute about 10% of net emigration.

That sounds wonderful. Who would have known that illegal really meant legal?

I think what he means is that refugees arriving in the UK, commonly slandered as "illegal" by both the press and politicians, do in fact have a legal right to apply for refugee status. If that application is refused for whatever reason, and they then refuse to leave, then at that point they become illegal, but not before.

Now you might be thinking, "Oh this is splitting hairs, 99% of them get refused which is close enough to all of them being illegal."

So I quote you the govt stats:

The percentage of main applicants refused at initial decision reached its highest point at 88% in 2004. After that the percentage fell to 59% in 2014, before increasing and then falling again to 48% in 2019 – the lowest annual rate at that point since 1993.

In 2021 and 2022, so far, the rate has been much lower, at 28% and 23% in those years, respectively
https://researchbriefings.files.parliam ... N01403.pdf

[Mike4]

Well the main reason for the growth in UK population is the neverending migration of various illegal migrants and undocumented criminals to the UK, who have to be housed at the taxpayers expense. They have also brought the NHS and various other social services to breaking point. This may all be good news for UK landlords, but not so good news for the vast majority of British people.

Oh really?

After that little rant I'm half expecting you to start going on about Schrödinger's immigrants.

Y'know? The ones who come over here and claim all our benefits, take all our jobs....


Anyway, how you you know its partly 'undocumented criminals' coming over here and getting houses at the taxpayers' expense if they are undocumented? How many is too many? How many would be "about right"?

[Tara]

“The UK population continues to grow strongly and is forecast to continue doing so.”

Well the main reason for the growth in UK population is the neverending migration of various illegal migrants and undocumented criminals to the UK, who have to be housed at the taxpayers expense. They have also brought the NHS and various other social services to breaking point. This may all be good news for UK landlords, but not so good news for the vast majority of British people.

"Illegal" immigrants have a legal right to come here, and constitute about 10% of net emigration.

That sounds wonderful. Who would have known that illegal really meant legal?

I think what he means is that refugees arriving in the UK, commonly slandered as "illegal" by both the press and politicians, do in fact have a legal right to apply for refugee status. If that application is refused for whatever reason, and they then refuse to leave, then at that point they become illegal, but not before.

Now you might be thinking, "Oh this is splitting hairs, 99% of them get refused which is close enough to all of them being illegal."

So I quote you the govt stats:

The percentage of main applicants refused at initial decision reached its highest point at 88% in 2004. After that the percentage fell to 59% in 2014, before increasing and then falling again to 48% in 2019 – the lowest annual rate at that point since 1993.

In 2021 and 2022, so far, the rate has been much lower, at 28% and 23% in those years, respectively
https://researchbriefings.files.parliam ... N01403.pdf

Government statistics on immigration are almost meaningless and have been for many years. The number of illegal or undocumented migrants in the UK can probably be counted in the many millions. And even if a migrant is declared to be illegal, once they have reached the UK, the chances of them ever being removed from the country are almost zero. The whole UK immigration system is a farce and the British people were never asked about any of it.

[GeoffF100]

So basically you are saying that anyone in the world, legal or illegal, has a legal right to come to the UK and live here permanently at the UK taxpayers expense?

Anyone in the world can seek asylum in this country. A majority of asylum seekers have asylum granted. Successful asylum seekers do not live here at the tax payers' expense, they are allowed to work. The government does not publish statistics on the number of failed asylum seekers who are deported (it says it does not know), but the tabloids have claimed that it is less than 10%.

[GeoffF100]

The whole UK immigration system is a farce and the British people were never asked about any of it.

Yes they were. The Conservative Party made a big noise about it and they were elected. If you voted Conservative, you voted for this.

[vand]

Well its lovely to see this descend into the typical immigrant and political debate as early as page 1.

[Lanark]

The Home Office is now publishing stats on irregular migration - here

The Home Office cautions that the data is “not designed for statistical purposes and therefore should be interpreted with caution”. Notably, the Home Office says that the figures cannot be used to infer total levels of irregular migration.

This is because many irregular entries are not detected. And detection rates differ according to the method of entry. Very few people travelling in small boats will evade detection, but those entering the UK by hiding in lorries or containers could.

[Tara]

The whole UK immigration system is a farce and the British people were never asked about any of it.

Yes they were. The Conservative Party made a big noise about it and they were elected. If you voted Conservative, you voted for this.

It was under Blair and a Labour Government when mass migration to the UK really began to soar. Mass migration always continues every year, no matter whether it is a Labour Government or a Conservative Government. Again, the British people, whether Labour voters or Conservative voters, were never asked about any of it.

[Harry23]

I can't read the Bloomberg article without setting up an account, but I remember some research from about 20 years ago that the long-term average house price to income ratio was about 3.5 in the UK, and that if we go much above that level we're heading into bubble territory.

I'm a bit behind collecting my data on this, but on a quick yahoo search I got average price £295k and income £31.4k, so the ratio is over 9!!
Imo the housing market has been broken for some time, not just home ownership but rentals too. So much so that they invented a whole new inflation index, the CPI, to exclude housing costs, which is now used as the benchmark to measure wage rises even though we've still got the burden of those increasing costs.

[Nimrod103]

Can you provide any data to back up your assertion that illegal migrants and criminals are the main reason for the growth in the U.K. population?

Daily Express editorials and BNP campaign leaflets don’t cut it.

https://fullfact.org/immigration/popula ... migration/

What was claimed
Migration is linked to 82% of population growth (between 2001 and 2016).

Our verdict
“Linked to” here combines an estimate of both net migration and children born to immigrant parents. This is likely to be on the right scale

[Lootman]

I can't read the Bloomberg article without setting up an account, but I remember some research from about 20 years ago that the long-term average house price to income ratio was about 3.5 in the UK, and that if we go much above that level we're heading into bubble territory.

I'm a bit behind collecting my data on this, but on a quick yahoo search I got average price £295k and income £31.4k, so the ratio is over 9!!

The earnings multiple is a crude measure and, for instance, takes no account of mortgage rates. Most buyers do not look at price but rather what the monthly mortgage payment is.

The market is also very local. There are locations, particularly in London and Devon/Cornwall, where home prices are 20 times local annual income, and yet demand is strong.

[funduffer]

Coming back on topic…….

House prices are slowly falling in absolute terms, but at lot faster in real terms, with ~10% inflation.

If house prices decline 0.5% per month for a year, with 10% inflation, house will have declined in real terms by 16%.

Do you count this as a collapse?

FD

[Tara]

I can't read the Bloomberg article without setting up an account, but I remember some research from about 20 years ago that the long-term average house price to income ratio was about 3.5 in the UK, and that if we go much above that level we're heading into bubble territory.

I'm a bit behind collecting my data on this, but on a quick yahoo search I got average price £295k and income £31.4k, so the ratio is over 9!!

The earnings multiple is a crude measure and, for instance, takes no account of mortgage rates. Most buyers do not look at price but rather what the monthly mortgage payment is.

The market is also very local. There are locations, particularly in London and Devon/Cornwall, where home prices are 20 times local annual income, and yet demand is strong.

If the demand is strong at 20 times local income, then the demand will mainly be from wealthy people from outside the area. The local people are not able to afford house prices at 20 times their income. So where are they supposed to live?

[GeoffF100]

The whole UK immigration system is a farce and the British people were never asked about any of it.

Yes they were. The Conservative Party made a big noise about it and they were elected. If you voted Conservative, you voted for this.

It was under Blair and a Labour Government when mass migration to the UK really began to soar. Mass migration always continues every year, no matter whether it is a Labour Government or a Conservative Government. Again, the British people, whether Labour voters or Conservative voters, were never asked about any of it.

It has been an issue at every election. The truth is that we have had relatively few asylum seekers, and there is nothing much we can do to stop them. The Conservatives always make a big noise about it, and promise to stop it. Their proposals are always ridiculously unworkable, but they know that does not matter. There are always plenty of voters dim enough to believe them.

Removing failed asylum seekers is very slow, difficult and expensive. International law says they they do not have to have papers. They claim to come from a particular country. The government has to get that country to accept that they are their citizens and issue papers before they can be sent there. The asylum seekers can also appeal and take their case to the courts. The rich people who fund the Conservative Party want low taxes, and do not want the government to spend a fortune on failed attempts to deport people.

[Lootman]

I can't read the Bloomberg article without setting up an account, but I remember some research from about 20 years ago that the long-term average house price to income ratio was about 3.5 in the UK, and that if we go much above that level we're heading into bubble territory.

I'm a bit behind collecting my data on this, but on a quick yahoo search I got average price £295k and income £31.4k, so the ratio is over 9!!

The earnings multiple is a crude measure and, for instance, takes no account of mortgage rates. Most buyers do not look at price but rather what the monthly mortgage payment is.

The market is also very local. There are locations, particularly in London and Devon/Cornwall, where home prices are 20 times local annual income, and yet demand is strong.

If the demand is strong at 20 times local income, then the demand will mainly be from wealthy people from outside the area. The local people are not able to afford house prices at 20 times their income. So where are they supposed to live?

Here are some places I cannot afford to live:

Aruba
Monaco
Aspen
Andorra
Knightsbridge
NYC upper east side

Should laws be passed so I can live in places I cannot afford? Should I demand subsidies so I can afford them?

[GeoffF100]

I can't read the Bloomberg article without setting up an account, but I remember some research from about 20 years ago that the long-term average house price to income ratio was about 3.5 in the UK, and that if we go much above that level we're heading into bubble territory.

I'm a bit behind collecting my data on this, but on a quick yahoo search I got average price £295k and income £31.4k, so the ratio is over 9!!

The earnings multiple is a crude measure and, for instance, takes no account of mortgage rates. Most buyers do not look at price but rather what the monthly mortgage payment is.

The market is also very local. There are locations, particularly in London and Devon/Cornwall, where home prices are 20 times local annual income, and yet demand is strong.

If the demand is strong at 20 times local income, then the demand will mainly be from wealthy people from outside the area. The local people are not able to afford house prices at 20 times their income. So where are they supposed to live?

Somewhere that they can afford. Successive governments have inflated house prices to win votes. Sooner or later, the youngsters will start to vote in large numbers and that policy will backfire. Nonetheless, in parts of the country that are already concreted over, you cannot build more houses. Tower blocks perhaps, but people do not like them, and planning regulations do not allow them to be packed close together.

[Spet0789]

Can you provide any data to back up your assertion that illegal migrants and criminals are the main reason for the growth in the U.K. population?

Daily Express editorials and BNP campaign leaflets don’t cut it.

https://fullfact.org/immigration/popula ... migration/

What was claimed
Migration is linked to 82% of population growth (between 2001 and 2016).

Our verdict
“Linked to” here combines an estimate of both net migration and children born to immigrant parents. This is likely to be on the right scale

The original assertion was about illegal migration and criminals.