The Lemon Fool

All the FTSE indices are up since March and not seeming to be worried by a no-deal Brexit.
I was expecting a crash to take advantage of.
What's the current view of the UK market from now on?

High?

Look low to me, barely different to 10 years ago.

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Bound to be a Brexit wobble but by now the price is largely baked into the market? A fall in the GBP as expected on a no deal exit, then in any case it's positive for most FTSE companies as they earn most revenue outside the UK.

RVF

Pound Euro rate has been virtually constant since June. And shows no sign of significant drop recently.
Pound Dollar rate has been rising steadily since June.
I gave up predicting currency movements years ago.

One of the expected benefits of Brexit was to be able to trade with the rest of the world without EU constraints.
China supports businesses financially where the government sees prospects and USA has always been protectionist. Getting away from the EU level playing field was high on our list of red lines, but I suppose that one will be the one where compromise is made to get a deal with the EU.
That will hinder our chances of being competitive with China and USA, unfortunately, hitting growth in the future.

It looks like a deal is coming, but what will the UK compromise be?

wickham wrote:One of the expected benefits of Brexit was to be able to trade with the rest of the world without EU constraints.

What EU constraints? The EU has multiple trade deals with countries around the world which the UK is about to lose. Germany is a huge exporter to China. The only 'constraint' is on Govt subsidies and that's a good thing - the alternative is politicians trying to choose industry winners, good luck with that!

I think the chance of no deal has been priced in for some time for stocks like Bank Shares.

For some stocks it doesn't really matter.

There are stocks where it is more likely to matter, but some will already have sorted out ways of trading post Brexit.

Stocks like IAG are not doing that well anyway.

To revert to the OP's comments, if you forget Covid then the indices have not done much, so I guess your basic question is why have the indices more or less held steady with the possibility of a no deal Brexit on the horizon? Maybe the market does not believe that is likely but also bear in mind that the UK market is being talked up at the moment with many commentators saying it is great value or words to that effect. Certainly it must be one of the few which has not done much for a long while in comparison to the rest of the world.

Dod

The FTSE 100 hasn't performed well against the S&P 500 nor the Chinese CSI 300 Index, both of which have hit new highs this year (who would have expected that?)



RC

RockRabbit wrote:

wickham wrote:One of the expected benefits of Brexit was to be able to trade with the rest of the world without EU constraints.

What EU constraints? The EU has multiple trade deals with countries around the world which the UK is about to lose. Germany is a huge exporter to China. The only 'constraint' is on Govt subsidies and that's a good thing - the alternative is politicians trying to choose industry winners, good luck with that!

I believe WTO Anti-subsidy rules are similar to EU State Aid rules, although enforcement/remedy mechanisms are different.

Consequently, it's trivial to recognise therefore that the UK Govt's reluctance to agree LPF measures with the EU is not about state aid but instead about labour protection, with the Brexity types keen to remove employment protections as a means of competitive advantage.

And the "workers" who voted for it? I'm sure they've given it their full consideration and will thus be fully onboard with the increased "flexibility" they'll shortly be providing

For us private investors, the international growth investors have sold already, the UK high yield aren't selling whatever. Same with institutional investors, the international ones have already left so risk increasing of no deal made a minor difference last week. Cheers

Irrational exuberance?