macro issues

[casapinos]

HI folks, as a fan of the former Berts board I was looking for a macro -type board here, not finding anything suitable I offer the above title and a longish list of topics i'm wrestling with in seeking to decide whether , when , where and how to invest in the coming months/years.

Macro trends to debate

the end of QE and its consequences
the end of the "bond bubble"
China's debt
broken "Brics"
energy policy
the "end of trade?"
excess money

specific trends(maybe)i'm looking to cash in on ;
the implications of internet shopping , including impact on retailers, transport and packaging co's
new energy, tidal,wave energy, better batteries etc
growth in online data traffic, quad play services etc
3d printing -is it significant?
will the gig economy flourish/ survive?impact on hotel co's?
Transport issues,electric vehicles,autonomous vehicles,hyper loop etc
p2p lending

No doubt dozens of others - in pursuit of keeping these fora open i will contribute more directly than in the past , returning to some of these issues with the fruits of my research.
see you anon
casa

[dspp]

I think all your bullet points are valid & relevant, but symptoms rather than causes.

Isn't the biggest trend issue the reduction in unskilled & semi-skilled labour jobs globally (whether in manufacturing; extractive industries; or agriculture) and the offshoring (from the western perspective) of much of the remaining jobs to Asia (which others may take the long view and call reversion to the mean) or their increased elimination through technology/automation (which is causing issues in all countries, including Asia).

The populist political response to this has been initially QE to keep the wheels on the truck (Japan pre 2007; all the West since then), then secondly to promise bread & circuses & "control" to voters (Farage, LePen, Trump, AfD, etc).

Surviving stage two intact is enough of a challenge for me. However there will be a stage three when it becomes clear that the promises of stage two cannot be met because the technology change that underlies this is not going away. So what to do with loads of semiskilled all over the world - go back to peasant farming and cutting down trees by hand ? How to invest to position for stage three is a challenge that will pay well if you can figure it out. It will require a social revolution to address the economic challenges created by the technological revolution.

regards, dspp

[Charlottesquare]

To extend into future trends, what about skilled workers in the professions being supplanted by AI.

Currently we have accounting work becoming more automated via data feeds-even at the smaller business size accounts being auto populated by bank transaction feeds and preset rules re allocation, but I suspect this is just the start, certainly the HMRC Making Tax digital initiative (when it proceeds) will advance nearly all records eventually into digital form. The advances in AI will possibly lead to advisory and planning finance and legal roles becoming within the competence of AI, so how long until there is a reduction in requirements for say human solicitors and accountants?

Once all data is available digitally why could not say property conveyancing become an automated task?

I see the 21st century tech revolution as turning the late 20th century urge to say encourage one's children into the professions, maybe roles which require both applied skills and knowledge, coupled with manual dexterity and mobility, will be the top of the employment food chain in the 21st century?

[Generali]

To extend into future trends, what about skilled workers in the professions being supplanted by AI.

Currently we have accounting work becoming more automated via data feeds-even at the smaller business size accounts being auto populated by bank transaction feeds and preset rules re allocation, but I suspect this is just the start, certainly the HMRC Making Tax digital initiative (when it proceeds) will advance nearly all records eventually into digital form. The advances in AI will possibly lead to advisory and planning finance and legal roles becoming within the competence of AI, so how long until there is a reduction in requirements for say human solicitors and accountants?

Once all data is available digitally why could not say property conveyancing become an automated task?

I see the 21st century tech revolution as turning the late 20th century urge to say encourage one's children into the professions, maybe roles which require both applied skills and knowledge, coupled with manual dexterity and mobility, will be the top of the employment food chain in the 21st century?

It's interesting as an idea. Clearly as technology has progressed since the industrial revolution kicked off in England in the 1750s as technology has improved we have generally found new work for displaced workers or at least for the children of displaced workers. I can't think of a time when someone bemoaned the chemical industry reducing opportunities for fullers or that some mad old leftie was complaining about the very real hardships being faced by the families of haywards in this era of fencing and open fields.

So why would changes wrought by AI be different to those imposed by the spread of the internal combustion engine, the seed drill or the spinning jenny? A fifth or more of Britons used to be employed in agriculture even after enclosure, now that figure is closer to 1%. Don't forget if tech just throws everyone out of a job then nobody can afford to buy the stuff being made so nobody invests in tech to produce stuff nobody wants. Maybe the whole thing becomes self regulating: ultimately you can't deploy unlimited capital and have no employees because your employees are your customers or at least the customers of the economy you are operating in.

I don't know the answer but there are some thoughts anyway.

[Ashfordian]

To extend into future trends, what about skilled workers in the professions being supplanted by AI.

Currently we have accounting work becoming more automated via data feeds-even at the smaller business size accounts being auto populated by bank transaction feeds and preset rules re allocation, but I suspect this is just the start, certainly the HMRC Making Tax digital initiative (when it proceeds) will advance nearly all records eventually into digital form. The advances in AI will possibly lead to advisory and planning finance and legal roles becoming within the competence of AI, so how long until there is a reduction in requirements for say human solicitors and accountants?

Once all data is available digitally why could not say property conveyancing become an automated task?

I see the 21st century tech revolution as turning the late 20th century urge to say encourage one's children into the professions, maybe roles which require both applied skills and knowledge, coupled with manual dexterity and mobility, will be the top of the employment food chain in the 21st century?

It's interesting as an idea. Clearly as technology has progressed since the industrial revolution kicked off in England in the 1750s as technology has improved we have generally found new work for displaced workers or at least for the children of displaced workers. I can't think of a time when someone bemoaned the chemical industry reducing opportunities for fullers or that some mad old leftie was complaining about the very real hardships being faced by the families of haywards in this era of fencing and open fields.

So why would changes wrought by AI be different to those imposed by the spread of the internal combustion engine, the seed drill or the spinning jenny? A fifth or more of Britons used to be employed in agriculture even after enclosure, now that figure is closer to 1%. Don't forget if tech just throws everyone out of a job then nobody can afford to buy the stuff being made so nobody invests in tech to produce stuff nobody wants. Maybe the whole thing becomes self regulating: ultimately you can't deploy unlimited capital and have no employees because your employees are your customers or at least the customers of the economy you are operating in.

I don't know the answer but there are some thoughts anyway.

I think you need to consider the demographic that would be affected by AI. Your previous examples of automation or improved efficiency mainly affected the lower classes. The spread of AI will hugely affect middle-class professionals, a demographic which has never been hugely affected in the past. That is a seismic shift.

[Generali]

I guess it comes down to what you think of as middle class. If you think it's someone who works in an office in The Professions then I mostly agree with you although all those companies must be shelling out for Windows for a reason I guess.

I see that as too narrow a definition however. Artisans are, or at least were, a part of the middle class. Brewers, bakers, coopers, thatchers, blacksmiths, tailors and plenty more have seen their jobs changed hugely over the centuries and the demand for that sort of labour will have dropped hugely.

[UncleEbenezer]

The "middle class" that Brits conventionally speak of is something of a flash-in-the-pan. Only for a few years would a decent professional job short of the very top get you a bigger-than-average house. For most generations, your wealth is tied vastly more to property and inheritance than to education and profession.

[Generali]

The "middle class" that Brits conventionally speak of is something of a flash-in-the-pan. Only for a few years would a decent professional job short of the very top get you a bigger-than-average house. For most generations, your wealth is tied vastly more to property and inheritance than to education and profession.

I find the American definition much more helpful where the middle classes are those for whom life isn't a daily struggle, they have a decent job that pays for them to own a house, put food on the table and have a little fun.