Femi wrote:Over the very long term, I would expect dividends to grow by roughly the same amount as GDP, so around RPI+2%, therefore slightly better than the capped DB or even gold-plated DB pension.
I always like to refer to factual history, using the dividend per income unit of my portfolio.
[pre]
. Income Units
. Ordinary Rebased RPI Change Change
Year to Divs/unit Divs/unit Rebased Divs/unit RPI FTSE100 Divs/RPI
05-Apr-88 2.86 100.00 100.00 100.0%
05-Apr-89 2.72 94.81 112.28 -5.19% 12.28% -4.82% 84.4%
05-Apr-90 4.24 147.94 122.89 56.05% 9.45% 11.73% 120.4%
05-Apr-91 5.42 189.25 130.75 27.92% 6.39% 7.78% 144.7%
05-Apr-92 7.52 262.34 136.35 38.62% 4.28% 10.31% 192.4%
05-Apr-93 6.91 241.32 138.11 -8.01% 1.30% -0.68% 174.7%
05-Apr-94 6.27 218.85 141.65 -9.31% 2.56% 16.51% 154.5%
05-Apr-95 7.48 261.07 146.37 19.29% 3.33% 12.84% 178.4%
05-Apr-96 7.38 257.48 149.90 -1.38% 2.42% -2.01% 171.8%
05-Apr-97 8.40 293.36 153.54 13.93% 2.42% 17.32% 191.1%
05-Apr-98 8.88 310.04 159.72 5.69% 4.03% 16.57% 194.1%
05-Apr-99 8.46 295.34 162.28 -4.74% 1.60% 37.71% 182.0%
05-Apr-00 11.33 395.51 167.09 33.92% 2.97% 5.47% 236.7%
05-Apr-01 11.73 409.64 170.04 3.57% 1.76% 4.41% 240.9%
05-Apr-02 13.02 454.50 172.59 10.95% 1.50% -13.86% 263.3%
05-Apr-03 12.10 422.26 178.00 -7.09% 3.13% -6.79% 237.2%
05-Apr-04 11.62 405.63 182.42 -3.94% 2.48% -31.17% 222.4%
05-Apr-05 12.07 421.42 188.21 3.89% 3.18% 21.34% 223.9%
05-Apr-06 13.12 458.13 193.03 8.71% 2.56% 11.60% 237.3%
05-Apr-07 14.04 490.19 201.77 7.00% 4.53% 21.87% 242.9%
05-Apr-08 24.32 849.07 210.22 73.21% 4.19% 5.76% 403.9%
05-Apr-09 21.17 739.15 207.76 -12.95% -1.17% -9.61% 355.8%
05-Apr-10 11.06 386.20 218.86 -47.75% 5.34% -31.15% 176.5%
05-Apr-11 16.71 583.44 230.26 51.07% 5.21% 44.66% 253.4%
05-Apr-12 17.46 609.34 238.21 4.44% 3.46% 4.03% 255.8%
05-Apr-13 19.91 694.93 245.09 14.05% 2.89% -3.13% 283.5%
05-Apr-14 20.47 714.45 250.29 2.81% 2.12% 9.19% 285.4%
05-Apr-15 21.33 744.60 253.44 4.22% 1.26% 5.58% 293.8%
05-Apr-16 21.67 756.58 256.78 1.61% 1.32% 2.65% 294.6%
05-Apr-17 24.99 872.20 265.82 15.28% 3.52% -8.83% 328.1%
05-Apr-18 29.23 1,020.51 274.75 17.00% 3.36% 18.59% 371.4%
05-Apr-19 29.25 1,020.97 283.10 0.04% 3.04% -3.64% 360.6%
05-Apr-20 29.31 1,023.17 284.38 0.22% 0.45% 5.53% 359.8%
05-Apr-21 18.93 660.92 295.78 -35.40% 4.01% -23.83% 223.5%
05-Apr-22 23.71 827.82 328.68 25.25% 11.13% 18.78% 251.9%
The final column shows the dividends compare with the RPI over that period. Quite a bit of fluctuation, of course, and you could argue that dividends have gone backwards sine 2007-8, but that was an unusual year.
TJH