Is the stock market going to crash ? Recession etc

[KieronM93]

Im new to investing in stocks, and have a portfolio of around 15 companies i own stocks in .
Currently i have been investing around 6 months and primarily i just look for companies i view as run well with decent dividends aim for 10% back in dividends over the whole portfolio.

However they are mainly in American markets and a few European.

Im under an impression potentially, these past 6 months of investing a portion of my wage a week.. That im buying in an over inflated time, and we are around the corner from recession and a crash.. i also see alot of news and information (however useful or not) of potential/inevitable dollar collapse.
I dont have a degree in economics im an average worker who goes to work and saves some money in form of an investment(s).

Any information appreciated as did think of selling up shares not at a loss while i can, buying a few ounces of gold and re investing 2023 (been told 2023 is good time) basically investing cash from work into shares all throughout recession and look as well as i can for cheap intrinsically valued shares

[Dod101]

Im new to investing in stocks, and have a portfolio of around 15 companies i own stocks in .
Currently i have been investing around 6 months and primarily i just look for companies i view as run well with decent dividends aim for 10% back in dividends over the whole portfolio.

However they are mainly in American markets and a few European.

Im under an impression potentially, these past 6 months of investing a portion of my wage a week.. That im buying in an over inflated time, and we are around the corner from recession and a crash.. i also see alot of news and information (however useful or not) of potential/inevitable dollar collapse.
I dont have a degree in economics im an average worker who goes to work and saves some money in form of an investment(s).

Any information appreciated as did think of selling up shares not at a loss while i can, buying a few ounces of gold and re investing 2023 (been told 2023 is good time) basically investing cash from work into shares all throughout recession and look as well as i can for cheap intrinsically valued shares

Unless you have a better crystal ball than the rest of us you are not going to get meaningful answers to your questions. I guess it was as it turns out t poor timing to start investing six months ago but you have to start sometime, Was that just before the invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent pressure on inflation? If you are really feeling very uncomfortable investing right now (some might argue that this is a god time) then simply stop but leave your current shares where they are and let the winds of fortune do their work. If that makes you feel really uncomfortable, then sell the lot and start again in a year or two. However there is never a right time to invest. You have not said what your time scale is. If upwards of say 5 years, I would leave your current investments where they are and might even continue investing.

A recession would not necessarily result in a crash but more likely I think a slow and long period of no growth with possibly a drift downwards in share prices. I do not know and if anyone comes a long to tell you what the future holds do not believe them. You need to decide what to do and what makes you feel a bit more comfortable. You are facing one of the many dilemmas of investing.

Good luck anyway.

[monabri]

Im new to investing in stocks, and have a portfolio of around 15 companies i own stocks in .
Currently i have been investing around 6 months and primarily i just look for companies i view as run well with decent dividends aim for 10% back in dividends over the whole portfolio.

However they are mainly in American markets and a few European.

Could you please just clarify the part above ( text bolded) ...over what timescale are we talking? ( especially when in the next line you mention "mainly American markets and a few European ")

[BT63]

I dont have a degree in economics....

You've no idea how much of an investment advantage.that is.

Yeah, look at what's happened to inflation and the economy under the management of theoretical economists who've never had a job in the real world.

[BT63]

Im new to investing in stocks, and have a portfolio of around 15 companies i own stocks in .
Currently i have been investing around 6 months and primarily i just look for companies i view as run well with decent dividends aim for 10% back in dividends over the whole portfolio.

However they are mainly in American markets and a few European.

Im under an impression potentially, these past 6 months of investing a portion of my wage a week.. That im buying in an over inflated time, and we are around the corner from recession and a crash.. i also see alot of news and information (however useful or not) of potential/inevitable dollar collapse.
I dont have a degree in economics im an average worker who goes to work and saves some money in form of an investment(s).

Any information appreciated as did think of selling up shares not at a loss while i can, buying a few ounces of gold and re investing 2023 (been told 2023 is good time) basically investing cash from work into shares all throughout recession and look as well as i can for cheap intrinsically valued shares

I suggest do one of two things:

1. Buy a fixed amount each month of a tracker fund via direct debit and leave it alone apart from annually slightly raising what you pay into the fund in line with your salary or inflation.

- or -

2. Create a portfolio somewhat resembling Harry Browne's Permenent Portfolio, although perhaps a little less cash and bonds.

.

Both easy strategies to follow which are likely to at least match what the average investor achieves and requiring only an hour per year of effort.

Or I could tell you what I think is going to happen, then you reshuffle your portfolio and find out I was wrong and you jumped from the frying pan into the fire.

[DrFfybes]

Im under an impression potentially, these past 6 months of investing a portion of my wage a week.. That im buying in an over inflated time, and we are around the corner from recession and a crash..

Oh yes, definitely, right around the corner, any time, erm, soon.

The thing with investing is that there are always opposing views (OK, nearly always) and at some point there is always someone saying we are in a bubble and predicting a crash.

2 years ago we moved house without selling the old one, a week before Stamp Duty holiday was announced, we were very concerned we'd not be able to sell the old one with all the doom and gloom over Covid and the economy and the markets tanking, were considering if we could afford a 20% price crash. As it happens we should have held on to the old one for another year and markets recovered to an all time high.

I had a good year last year, but a lot of that disappeared in the first 6 months of 2022, and 2 or 3 weeks ago I was back to where I was 12 months ago. Since then I've regained about half of the year's losses. If you are in for the long term then it is just noise, sure there will be times when you are under water 12 month or more with some shares, but if the foundations are good then those are the times when your monthly purchases make the biggest gains in the long term.

Markets go up and down, but solid dividend paying companies with an established product line will tend to win out long term, just avoid the current fad and anything where the Management keep tweeting about Crypto

Paul

[MrFoolish]

Im under an impression potentially, these past 6 months of investing a portion of my wage a week.. That im buying in an over inflated time, and we are around the corner from recession and a crash.. i also see alot of news and information (however useful or not) of potential/inevitable dollar collapse.
I dont have a degree in economics im an average worker who goes to work and saves some money in form of an investment(s).

Ah, but what do you mean by "a crash"? The US stockmarket is already well off its peak. The UK stockmarket is barely higher than it was 22 years ago. Some might say the crash has already happened.

As to the news you are reading... well there have always been perma-bears who say economic meltdown is just round the corner.

Nobody knows what will happen next. If you have a long-term time horizon, there's much to be said for remaining calm and drip-feeding your cash into investments (and collecting the dividends). Then you can throw away your crystal ball and get on with your life.

[DrFfybes]

Ah, but what do you mean by "a crash"? The US stockmarket is already well off its peak. The UK stockmarket is barely higher than it was 22 years ago. Some might say the crash has already happened.

How depressing, the next thing you'll be telling us that Gold is only just back at the level of 30 years ago when adjusted for inflation. How did we ever make any money?
Besides, 22 years ago the growth was almost exponential, valueing 'jam tomorrow' companies at ridiculous levels with no asset supprt. Anyone could see it was a bubble and a crash was around the corner. People have learnt, these days nobody would pile money into something with no asset backing based on hypothetical valuations.

The UK has lagged behind US and elsewhere the last decade or 2, so either UK is due a great catch up, or the others due a great correction, or there's no such thing as "reversion to the mean".

Paul

[absolutezero]

The average investor does not beat the market on a consistent basis so the average investor is better buying a low cost tracker fund by drip feeding monthly amounts on a regular basis.

Most "investment professionals" are beaten by trackers.

Vanguard and iShares by Blackrock are two good places to start looking.
https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/what-we-offer/etf-products
https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/etf-investments#/?productView=all&fst=50567&pageNumber=1&sortColumn=totalFundSizeInMillions&sortDirection=desc&dataView=keyFacts

I hold Vanguard stuff myself
VEVE - Developed World tracker
VUSA - S&P 500 tracker
VUKE - FTSE 100 tracker

iShares are also in my portfolio
ISF - FTSE 100 tracker
IUKD - UK high yield tracker (a bit HYP-esque)
SWDA - Developed World tracker
CSP1 - S&P 500 tracker

Hold inside an ISA or SIPP or you can fall foul of foreign dividend tax and something called Excess Reportable Income - but tax shelters avoid this paperwork pain.

[airbus330]

I can't answer the question, but I find that some of the vlogs on youtube are educational. Have a look at the Pensioncraft channel on YT, Ramin makes for/against arguments for all sorts of financial situations.

[Mike4]

You ask "Is the stock market going to crash ?"

Looking at my own investments it already has.

[tjh290633]

For what it is worth, I have found that continuing to hold my equity investements through thick and thin has served me well over the last 50-odd years. My investments have been mainly UK-centric, with some bias towards commodity shares and funds. These latter have often served as a contrarian factor.

Were it me I would stay the course. As has been said many times, you cannot time the market. Regular investing in a few well chosen areas, regardless of the market level, will see you through.

TJH

[dealtn]

I dont have a degree in economics....

You've no idea how much of an investment advantage.that is.

Yeah, look at what's happened to inflation and the economy under the management of theoretical economists who've never had a job in the real world.

Really? Who are these theoretical economists you are referring to and what influence are they having on inflation and the economy?

[Gerry557]

Im new to investing in stocks, and have a portfolio of around 15 companies i own stocks in .
Currently i have been investing around 6 months and primarily i just look for companies i view as run well with decent dividends aim for 10% back in dividends over the whole portfolio.

However they are mainly in American markets and a few European.

Im under an impression potentially, these past 6 months of investing a portion of my wage a week.. That im buying in an over inflated time, and we are around the corner from recession and a crash.. i also see alot of news and information (however useful or not) of potential/inevitable dollar collapse.
I dont have a degree in economics im an average worker who goes to work and saves some money in form of an investment(s).

Any information appreciated as did think of selling up shares not at a loss while i can, buying a few ounces of gold and re investing 2023 (been told 2023 is good time) basically investing cash from work into shares all throughout recession and look as well as i can for cheap intrinsically valued shares

A 10% dividend yield seems quite high for new investments. How are you calculating that?

What time scale are you looking at? hopefully more longer term so the next 6 months will be a blip. Anyone remember the financial crash? It was big at the time but now...... probably a good time to buy.

We are always around the corner and a crash, if only we could publish accurate dates and by how much. A recession is two quarters of negative growth. So -0.01% and 0.02% would be a recession but very mild. Of course it could be much worse percentage wise or in numbers of quarters.

A crash is generally fast. They tend to happen fairly regularly. Lower share prices would be good if you are buying. Not great if you want to pay the mortgage off on a set date. They mainly recover in the medium term and if you have been buying lower then you recover faster and end up with more overall. Some keep dry powder to invest at such times. If your not too leveraged and stuck time wise it should be good news for you not bad.

It might not happen either then you may have missed out for other reasons. As for gold, you cant eat it, it doesn't pay a dividend and you have to rely on someone else valuing it just like you do and having the funds to pay you. Some say shotguns might be better if it gets that bad but you might be able to make gold work.

How big is your portfolio relatively. A newish investor might only have a relatively small amount to loose. Even a 50% drop might not be that bad. £6k to £3k is better than £600k to £300k in cash terms even though both have suffered the same fall.

In 2023 thing might look much better, if there has been a recession and a crash. When do you start investing though. When its still falling, When its started to rise a bit. A dead cat bounce? In the thick of it there is never a good time so often its best just to continue your monthly plans over time. Save a bit more cash if you really think its happening and invest at the bottom. You might get lucky or just guess right.

Otherwise it will be all over and looking rosy again and you will end up paying more for that scenario

[Gerry557]

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... ket-timer/

[Urbandreamer]

Who

I dont have a degree in economics....

You've no idea how much of an investment advantage.that is.

Yeah, look at what's happened to inflation and the economy under the management of theoretical economists who've never had a job in the real world.

Really? Who are these theoretical economists you are referring to and what influence are they having on inflation and the economy?

I think that there are quite a few obvious examples that could be listed. I can't really comment about what Snorvey was thinking, but there was the disagreement between the Austrian school and the Keynesian school. For some time Keynesian arguments have been used to justify government policies.

Here is a question for you. What IS inflation?

Is it, for example the increase in costs of a basket of goods? Does this mean that if we manage to make and provide those goods cheaper (ie mass production, GM crops, artificial fertalisers) that we are suffering a problem of deflation? Alternatively does inflation mean the increase of something, arguably in a geometric progression, such as the money supply?

"Who are these theoretical economists and what impact are they having on inflation and the economy?"
Well a quick google shows this lot
https://www.google.com/search?q=bank+of ... nt=gws-wiz
who are responsible for trying to achieve 2% "inflation" in the UK, setting interest rates and using Quantative Easing to do so.

IF they attempt to achieve the 2% figure charged, are they not responsible for the effects caused by their actions to achieve that figure?

[Adamski]

My 2 cents, you can add some gold to your portfolio, without selling up completely. I've got some SGLN ishares physical gold in my portfolio (listed on this forum). I also own a couple of sovereigns. Gold acts as a diversifier ie goes up when stocks go down. So offers some protection, but not always! It's volatile so that's worth being in mind.

[MrFoolish]

My 2 cents, you can add some gold to your portfolio, without selling up completely. I've got some SGLN ishares physical gold in my portfolio (listed on this forum). I also own a couple of sovereigns. Gold acts as a diversifier ie goes up when stocks go down. So offers some protection, but not always! It's volatile so that's worth being in mind.

I see the Total Expense Ratio of SGLN is 0.12%. Seems very reasonable. Does this mean it's like holding real gold but you are giving up 0.12% of the value each year?

[BT63]

My 2 cents, you can add some gold to your portfolio, without selling up completely. I've got some SGLN ishares physical gold in my portfolio (listed on this forum). I also own a couple of sovereigns. Gold acts as a diversifier ie goes up when stocks go down. So offers some protection, but not always! It's volatile so that's worth being in mind.

I see the Total Expense Ratio of SGLN is 0.12%. Seems very reasonable. Does this mean it's like holding real gold but you are giving up 0.12% of the value each year?

It is said that many precious metal ETF-type investments use un-allocated gold holdings. Basically, their gold is lumped together with other gold at whichever bank holds it for them.
In theory this creates a counterparty risk should there be inadequate gold to cover a withdrawal request.
Many old-timers in the precious metal markets believe that banks loan out this unallocated gold to earn interest on it, with the chance that it won't be returned.
Also many old-timers suspect dubious behaviour of the banks toward the unallocated gold behind the scenes.

Connoisseurs are said to prefer allocated precious metal investments, such as Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trusts because the exact bar numbers owned by the fund are published daily as proof of ownership and for transparency. Other funds and ETFs merely have a claim for a certain quantity of gold said to be held by whichever bank they chose as custodian.

Ultimately, the safest precious metal is physical metal in your possession because it is the only form immune to any kind of counterparty risk, although you need to find somewhere safe to store it.
But since a Gold Sovereign the size of a 1p (but twice the weight) is worth £350+ it isn't difficult to hide a substantial amount of wealth. Sovereigns and Britannias are also exempt from UK capital gains tax due to being theoretically legal tender.

[DM94]

Im new to investing in stocks, and have a portfolio of around 15 companies i own stocks in .
Currently i have been investing around 6 months and primarily i just look for companies i view as run well with decent dividends aim for 10% back in dividends over the whole portfolio.

However they are mainly in American markets and a few European.

Im under an impression potentially, these past 6 months of investing a portion of my wage a week.. That im buying in an over inflated time, and we are around the corner from recession and a crash.. i also see alot of news and information (however useful or not) of potential/inevitable dollar collapse.
I dont have a degree in economics im an average worker who goes to work and saves some money in form of an investment(s).

Any information appreciated as did think of selling up shares not at a loss while i can, buying a few ounces of gold and re investing 2023 (been told 2023 is good time) basically investing cash from work into shares all throughout recession and look as well as i can for cheap intrinsically valued shares

In my humble opinion, considering you're new to investing, you shouldn't be investing in individual companies unless you've properly looked into them and understand the business. Since you haven't told us, for all we know you potentially have positions in terrible companies that will continue to bleed out if the markets don't turn around.

To answer your question - no really one knows where the bottom is, ever.