Is the dollar dead ?

[scotview]

Not sure what Pelosi's strategy is with Taiwan but it sure isn't making Xi happy.

America the lead supplier of last resort in Ukraine.

China, Russia and India seemingly forming a partnership in commodities, manufacturing and driving for increased productivity, whilst at the same time totally ignoring COP19. These countries seem to have a strong, cohesive push to strengthen their own currencies, possibly backed by a gold standard.

In the mean time the USA national debt is currently at $30 Trillion and growing, backed by what?

What do you guys think the current state of play is ?

[Lootman]

I would never bet against the Dixie. Every time the world goes to hell in a handbasket, the USD appreciates. What other country is both a secure bastion of capitalism and has a military that is greater than the rest of the world added together?

I might tactically bet on emerging market currencies. But I cannot imagine a time when I am not over-weight Uncle Sam.

[dealtn]

In the mean time the USA national debt is currently at $30 Trillion and growing, backed by what?

What do you guys think the current state of play is ?

What's the national debt of China, Russia or India? Is it growing?

[1nvest]

China, Russia and India seemingly forming a partnership

... along with South America, Arabia and Africa

When on the gold standard there was broadly 0% inflation, investors in Treasuries that paid interest was like a real rate of return. When the US$ was commonly agreed to be the primary reserve monetary replacement that was under the promise the US would act responsibly. Instead its printed/spent to build up the largest military and exported inflation onto others. Seemingly, as above, much of the world is moving away from that US privilege, where instead of the US assumed 'there is no alternative' (to the US$) others are forming viable alternatives. Most unlikely that would be gold or bitcoin ...etc. instead it may be simply individual countries central banks holding foreign reserves in trade weighted proportions. Such as the EU holding and paying for Russian gas in Rubles, which weakens the US in the otherwise sense that when paid for in US$ then clearances traverses through the US - such that it has the capacity/power/control to block such clearance.

Europe will over time become more aligned with that larger body, as will Australia, US$ will be predominant in North America (US/Canada), only 5% of the global population, so not dead, but not dominant either. Markets will continue as ever, but be predominately bad for the US in not being able to freely print/spend or impose US$ 'strength' (controls).

[1nvest]

What other country ... has a military that is greater than the rest of the world added together?

China is building the likes of aircraft carriers at a rapid rate, I guess to rival/excel the US 11 count. As is their naval fleet already considerably larger than the US's. They also have more subs, getting on for a similar number of tanks and armoured vehicles, have multiples more of mobile rocket launchers (and rockets) and of course have population and military numbers of around five times that of the US.

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Not sure what Pelosi's strategy is with Taiwan but it sure isn't making Xi happy.

America the lead supplier of last resort in Ukraine.

China, Russia and India seemingly forming a partnership in commodities, manufacturing and driving for increased productivity, whilst at the same time totally ignoring COP19. These countries seem to have a strong, cohesive push to strengthen their own currencies, possibly backed by a gold standard.

In the mean time the USA national debt is currently at $30 Trillion and growing, backed by what?

What do you guys think the current state of play is ?

China is playing at daft beggars, just like Russia and India is probably the smartest of the three, playing everyone off against each other. Don't underestimate the economic and military might of the West. When was the last time the USA defaulted on debt repayments? I'll give you a clue ... never!

China's debt is "probably" around 300% of GDP. The US debt is approximately half that at between 125 - 150% of GDP.

Looking at debt in isolation isn't necessarily going to paint a picture of what the future holds for any country. The USA is a secure economy and I believe represents about 25% of the worlds turnover. If they go belly up, the rest of us will choke on their bile.

AiY(D)

[Urbandreamer]

Most unlikely that would be gold or bitcoin ...etc. instead it may be simply individual countries central banks holding foreign reserves in trade weighted proportions. Such as the EU holding and paying for Russian gas in Rubles, which weakens the US in the otherwise sense that when paid for in US$ then clearances traverses through the US - such that it has the capacity/power/control to block such clearance.

I happen to agree with your post,.... however you are not getting away with that statement without it being questioned.

Didn't / doesn't Russia have foreign reserves? What has happened to them? How reliable are, for example $ and € reserves, if you get into a disagreement? Can you use them to pay for things from China or India? What happens to these "reserves" that are frozen? There are calls to steal, sorry seize them. A simple google search will show the fact.

The example of Russia would seem to indicate that foreign "reserves" may not be a safe reserve.

Now I can't say for certain how countries will hold reserves in the future, but I would find it strange if they didn't take events into account. They may indeed continue to hold some foreign reserves, but I find the number of countries with increasing amounts of gold on their balance sheet as interesting.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/which-n ... uying-gold

[MrFoolish]

China is building the likes of aircraft carriers at a rapid rate, I guess to rival/excel the US 11 count.

Aircraft carriers and ships in general are sitting ducks for drones and cruise missiles these days. They are mostly for show. They impress flag waving Americans, and the leader of China is accountable to nobody for his spending.

[Urbandreamer]

Don't underestimate the economic and military might of the West. When was the last time the USA defaulted on debt repayments? I'll give you a clue ... never!

"Technically" true.

America did default during the civil war!

A long time ago? They only recently stopped paying pensions related to service in that war.

Much of this thread seems to take the stance, it's been so all my life, so that's the way it's always been and always will be.

100 years ago the $ was NOT the world reserve currency. At that time the reserve currency was gold. Then it became $'s backed by gold. Then, officially just $'s.

Indeed there are some that could argue that the US defaulted when they refused to pay France in gold back in 1971, as previously agreed.

Military might? Possibly a way of saying you're not getting the gold you hold on deposit, have some paper instead.

[XFool]

Chinas carriers are piles of junk. Based on an old Soviet pile of junk they towed from the Black Sea. Similarly, Their space rockets are old Soviet piles of junk.

They do seem to work, though.

They're easily 20 years behind the US (and the UK for that matter)

Um... I can't easily see the UK launching their own manned orbital missions or planning for a UK space station, or a manned Moon landing anytime soon. Can you?

[BT63]

I'm going to be a contrarian and suggest that the US Dollar will soon begin a significant multi-year downtrend, if it hasn't already begun.

[flyer61]

China's reaction is very much dummy spitting. Putin stated there would be a new world order with the invasion of Ukraine and China obviously saw it as a prelude for justifying it's own intentions. Given Putin has royally screwed up China is mighty angry. Taiwan will not go without a fight and that means China will have to do a Russia and destroy it to reclaim it. The rest of the world can see this ergo the USD will be around for a while yet.

Putin has been NATO's number one recruiting Sergeant! Thankfully we have in Europe many countries that lived under the yoke of the USSR and they don't want to go back to it in any shape or form.

Whilst China has made leaps and bounds economically it is most definitely not a particularly 'nice' country. I will never go there again. The markets may also take the view that China has no real recent military expeditionary experience and that the 'Russian' experience awaits it should it go down this route. USD still remains a haven of choice. Do not underestimate the American Industrial Complex.

Long USD, short GBP, keep a bit of AUD and NZD....

[CliffEdge]

China's reaction is very much dummy spitting. Putin stated there would be a new world order with the invasion of Ukraine and China obviously saw it as a prelude for justifying it's own intentions. Given Putin has royally screwed up China is mighty angry. Taiwan will not go without a fight and that means China will have to do a Russia and destroy it to reclaim it. The rest of the world can see this ergo the USD will be around for a while yet.

Putin has been NATO's number one recruiting Sergeant! Thankfully we have in Europe many countries that lived under the yoke of the USSR and they don't want to go back to it in any shape or form.

Whilst China has made leaps and bounds economically it is most definitely not a particularly 'nice' country. I will never go there again. The markets may also take the view that China has no real recent military expeditionary experience and that the 'Russian' experience awaits it should it go down this route. USD still remains a haven of choice. Do not underestimate the American Industrial Complex.

Long USD, short GBP, keep a bit of AUD and NZD....

I wouldn't bet against the dollar.
There is no such thing as Russia. There is Putin and his gangsters who have stolen a nascent democracy. As far as they are concerned they are winning in Ukraine and elsewhere. They are no more legitimate than the leaders of ISIS and its like, and should be treated carefully and rigorously.

[ReformedCharacter]

Their space rockets are old Soviet piles of junk.

That's a bit harsh. The Soviets had a distinguished record of rocketry, first satellite, the first man in space, the first to visit Venus in 1966. Granted, their manned lunar program failed badly. With over 1,900 flights since its debut in 1966, the Soyuz is the most frequently used launch vehicle in the world as of 2021. Low cost, highly reliable and safe. Hardly junk.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_(rocket_family)

RC

[ReformedCharacter]

Their space rockets are old Soviet piles of junk.

That's a bit harsh. The Soviets had a distinguished record of rocketry, first satellite, the first man in space, the first to visit Venus in 1966. Granted, their manned lunar program failed badly. With over 1,900 flights since its debut in 1966, the Soyuz is the most frequently used launch vehicle in the world as of 2021. Low cost, highly reliable and safe. Hardly junk.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_(rocket_family)

RC

Ok, but it's not SpaceX is it? Only The very top bit ever makes it back to earth. Its low tech. Functional. A bit like a lada maybe. It's like having a VHS in your house.

True, but neither the rest of the US space industry nor Arianespace nor the Chinese can do what SpaceX can do. And the horrendously expensive US Space Launch System will be using '70's era re-used Shuttle main engines. The 1960's designed Soviet NK-33 engines were so advanced that when they were dug out of storage in the '90's the US engineers refused to believe that the claimed performance was real, until they tested them. The engines were then bought and used by Aerojet until fairly recently, not bad for 50 year old engines. Whatever else may be said about the Russians, they have a history of engineering to be proud of, and in the Soviet era some of that was undertaken in Ukraine, Khrushchev having been the Communist Party leader there.

RC

[1nvest]

Don't underestimate the economic and military might of the West. When was the last time the USA defaulted on debt repayments? I'll give you a clue ... never!

"Technically" true.

America did default during the civil war!

A long time ago? They only recently stopped paying pensions related to service in that war.

Much of this thread seems to take the stance, it's been so all my life, so that's the way it's always been and always will be.

100 years ago the $ was NOT the world reserve currency. At that time the reserve currency was gold. Then it became $'s backed by gold. Then, officially just $'s.

Indeed there are some that could argue that the US defaulted when they refused to pay France in gold back in 1971, as previously agreed.

Military might? Possibly a way of saying you're not getting the gold you hold on deposit, have some paper instead.

US 1930 and gold/money pegged at around $20/ounce. Compulsory purchased at that rate, and in mid 1930's the US$ re-pegged to a $34/ounce gold price. But subject to semantics 'not a default'.

[SalvorHardin]

Not sure what Pelosi's strategy is with Taiwan but it sure isn't making Xi happy.

She's running for President. The Taiwan visit has massively raised her profile.

Biden is making so many cockups that they can't be covered up. He's not really in charge anymore. Kamala Harris makes Biden seem like Churchill and JFK combined. The Democrats are going to get a hammering in November if these two stay in charge.

Who is next in line? The speaker of the House of Representatives, who happens to be Nancy Pelosi.

Scenario: Biden removed for incapacity. Harris becomes Ambassador to somewhere or gets a big paying zero responsibility job at some tech company (otherwise she'll be facing removal under the 25th PDQ). Et voila; President Pelosi.

Alternatively she could be checking up on her and her husband's investments. The Pelosi's have done very well in the stockmarket; helped by it being perfectly legal for members of Congress to trade on insider information. People follow her investments like some follow Warren Buffett.

https://nypost.com/2022/03/08/wallstreetbets-founder-debuts-new-fund-that-mimics-nancy-pelosi-stock-trades/

As for the dollar being dead, don't bet against America. Sure, America has major problems but then so does almost everywhere else.

Russia is a fading empire with an increasingly third world economy. China's economy is built on lies and staggeringly high amounts of malinvestment (major bank runs are coming soon). The EU is bogged down with overregulation. Britain will muddle along.

[scotview]

Not sure what Pelosi's strategy is with Taiwan but it sure isn't making Xi happy.

She's running for President.

I thought that watching her coming down the plane stairs, she looked really frail.

[ElCid]

Not sure what Pelosi's strategy is with Taiwan but it sure isn't making Xi happy.

She's running for President.

I thought that watching her coming down the plane stairs, she looked really frail.

At 82 she is too old to run for President. So she is just stirring the pot.

[Lootman]

Not sure what Pelosi's strategy is with Taiwan but it sure isn't making Xi happy.

She's running for President. The Taiwan visit has massively raised her profile.

Do you think? She is 82 years old!