QE all over again

[dealtn]

We seem to have gone down the NHS rabbithole again, but no matter. I recall reading that the UK health spend is comparable to some European countries, but about 10% lower than France and Germany. This may be an artefact of exchange rates and I don't know whether private medical care was properly accounted for, but it does suggest that we get health care in the UK "on the cheap". It begs the question, how can France and Germany afford it, if we cannot?

Anecdotally, I have been exposed to far more of the NHS in the last 5 years than I would have wanted, but it is my observation that there is a huge amount of genuine demand out there for health services, which is serviced by a lot of recruitment of all levels of staff from abroad, mainly 3rd World countries. If the NHS is not currently coping, it may have something to do with the 10 million extra residents in the UK in the last 20 years, and more who do not appear in the census results.

This is of course one of the main reasons for the deficits, the economic problems, and the general collapse of everything in the UK. The continuing mass and uncontrolled immigration of millions of illegal and economic migrants from mainly 3rd world countries. This has resulted in a neverending drain on the UK taxpayer who has to foot the bill for the free welfare, the free housing, and the free healthcare of these migrants and their extended families in perpetuity.

And apparently this problem of uncontrollable immigration is “unsolvable” for the UK no matter which Government is in power. So both Conservative and Labour seem to be quite happy with this situation. As long as this situation continues the UK will inevitably continue to decline in every way.

Funny how China and Japan and most other countries in Asia seem to have no problem in controlling their borders.

Please reply bearing in mind this is The Economy board, and not elsewhere.

What evidence do you have this "millions" and what evidence an open economy and free movement of labour as you have described has led to this "neverending drain ..."?

[Tara]

This is of course one of the main reasons for the deficits, the economic problems, and the general collapse of everything in the UK. The continuing mass and uncontrolled immigration of millions of illegal and economic migrants from mainly 3rd world countries. This has resulted in a neverending drain on the UK taxpayer who has to foot the bill for the free welfare, the free housing, and the free healthcare of these migrants and their extended families in perpetuity.

And apparently this problem of uncontrollable immigration is “unsolvable” for the UK no matter which Government is in power. So both Conservative and Labour seem to be quite happy with this situation. As long as this situation continues the UK will inevitably continue to decline in every way.

Funny how China and Japan and most other countries in Asia seem to have no problem in controlling their borders.

Please reply bearing in mind this is The Economy board, and not elsewhere.

What evidence do you have this "millions" and what evidence an open economy and free movement of labour as you have described has led to this "neverending drain ..."?

The increase in the population is well known. Official increase of over 8 million in the last 20 years. The unaccounted figure is by definition unknown but going by the general collapse of everything in the UK, another 4 million or more unaccounted for seems quite possible.

[Nimrod103]

Please reply bearing in mind this is The Economy board, and not elsewhere.

What evidence do you have this "millions" and what evidence an open economy and free movement of labour as you have described has led to this "neverending drain ..."?

Personally I think that discussions should be free to go where they will, without moderators intervening. But that is another topic.

The issue for the UK economy is that when people say this is wrong or that is unsustainable, and others say well that can't be done or is currently illegal under existing laws or treaties, the options become very limited indeed, and it begins to look like the future of the country and its people is bleak indeed.

[ursaminortaur]

Please reply bearing in mind this is The Economy board, and not elsewhere.

What evidence do you have this "millions" and what evidence an open economy and free movement of labour as you have described has led to this "neverending drain ..."?

The increase in the population is well known. Official increase of over 8 million in the last 20 years. The unaccounted figure is by definition unknown but going by the general collapse of everything in the UK, another 4 million or more unaccounted for seems quite possible.

The government's official figure is 135,000 illegals detected but even the very anti-immigration migrationwatch only uses the Pew Research guesstimate of there being up to 1.2 million illegals in the country.

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/news/2023/02/09/detected-illegal-immigration-of-at-least-135000-since-january-2018

Analysis of the official statistics on irregular migration show that more than 135,000 people have been detected attempting to enter the UK illegally since 1 January 2018.

The total quadrupled – from just over 13,000 in 2018 to more than 52,000 in 2022.

Just under 60% of total attempts were by boat, about a quarter by those hidden in lorries or containers and 15% by those arriving irregularly by air without documentation.

The figures go a long way to explaining the chaotic state of our asylum system, as over 90% of those who enter by boat and lorry then go on to claim asylum. In the year ending September 2022 (1 Oct 2021 to 31 August 2022), 90% (31,891 of 35,345 arrivals) claimed asylum or were recorded as a dependant on an asylum application.

This asylum chaos, and rampant fraud by those abusing the system, is costing innocent, young British lives as our Chairman explains here.

It should be noted that these figures represent just the tip of the iceberg. That is because tens (or even hundreds) of thousands of people overstay their visas each year – which is another form of immigration abuse (see our papers here and here). Indeed, the Home Office just disclosed that more than 20,500 people of Indian nationality overstayed their visa in 2020 alone.

Meanwhile, the latest estimates by Pew Research suggest the number of illegals in the UK could be as high as 1.2 million (the largest illegal immigrant population in Europe). Meanwhile the government refuses to make an estimate of the number, knowing that the truth would shame them into oblivion.

[GoSeigen]

Please reply bearing in mind this is The Economy board, and not elsewhere.

What evidence do you have this "millions" and what evidence an open economy and free movement of labour as you have described has led to this "neverending drain ..."?

The increase in the population is well known. Official increase of over 8 million in the last 20 years. The unaccounted figure is by definition unknown but going by the general collapse of everything in the UK, another 4 million or more unaccounted for seems quite possible.

Wow, I've only been out of the UK 3 years and everything has collapsed! Looks like I got out just in time. Could someone summarise some of the effects of the collapse please? On my list so far:
1. Actual turds floating down rivers. That's not too cool.
2. Football, rugby and cricket teams all pants.
3. A foreigner is PM and his party in government have let in some 8 million more foreigners. They clearly LOVE foreigners which yes, is a sure sign of collapse.

Is there anything I've missed? Anything economic? (My UK-focused portfolio is at an all-time high so maybe bring on more collapse??)

GS

[Tedx]

Seems we're always 'near collapse', in 'crisis', or in the middle of a 'perfect storm'

Yet here we are. Doing ok, but with enormous upside potential in renewable energy, nuclear energy, agriculture, automation, artificial intelligence, pharmaceuticals and so on.

[Nimrod103]

Seems we're always 'near collapse', in 'crisis', or in the middle of a 'perfect storm'

Yet here we are. Doing ok, but with enormous upside potential in renewable energy, nuclear energy, agriculture, automation, artificial intelligence, pharmaceuticals and so on.

Taking these things in your order:
Renewable energy - has not yet lowered energy prices to the levels promised, and there is still no comprehensive plan for when the sun don't shine and the wind don't blow.
Nuclear energy - Hinkley Point is late and over budget, on an AIUI non-proven non-British design. SIzewell C is the only other station even being thought about at present.
Agriculture - we don't produce enough to feed ourselves. Land is being removed for non agricultural purposes, and water resources are insufficient, with no plans for new reservoirs. Arable farmers in eastern England are not happy.
Automation - I remember reading we had the least automated industries in Europe.
AI - sorry no idea
Pharmaceuticals - our high tax regime has just scared away a major company to low tax Ireland

I don't see a lot to be proud of. The upside potential may be there, but the reality is not coming closer.

[Tara]

The increase in the population is well known. Official increase of over 8 million in the last 20 years. The unaccounted figure is by definition unknown but going by the general collapse of everything in the UK, another 4 million or more unaccounted for seems quite possible.

Wow, I've only been out of the UK 3 years and everything has collapsed! Looks like I got out just in time. Could someone summarise some of the effects of the collapse please? On my list so far:
1. Actual turds floating down rivers. That's not too cool.
2. Football, rugby and cricket teams all pants.
3. A foreigner is PM and his party in government have let in some 8 million more foreigners. They clearly LOVE foreigners which yes, is a sure sign of collapse.

Is there anything I've missed? Anything economic? (My UK-focused portfolio is at an all-time high so maybe bring on more collapse??)

GS

Well everything may look fine if the only thing that you care about is money and you live in a certain area. Many ordinary British people though see a declining health system, education system, social care system, housing system, and many other things in decline. The only thing that is certainly increasing in the UK is violent crime.

As was said before, funny how China and Japan and most other countries in Asia seem to have no problem in controlling their borders.

[Steveam]

Nimrod wrote: “It begs the question, how can France and Germany afford it, if we cannot?” and continued with a blame the (illegal) immigrants rant. Two points: 1. Prioritise health expenditure over, for example, defence 2. There is consistent and repeated evidence that immigrants make a net contribution to our economy (I have no idea whether illegal immigrants change this calculus but I’ve not seen any evidence.

Best wishes, Steve

[ursaminortaur]

Wow, I've only been out of the UK 3 years and everything has collapsed! Looks like I got out just in time. Could someone summarise some of the effects of the collapse please? On my list so far:
1. Actual turds floating down rivers. That's not too cool.
2. Football, rugby and cricket teams all pants.
3. A foreigner is PM and his party in government have let in some 8 million more foreigners. They clearly LOVE foreigners which yes, is a sure sign of collapse.

Is there anything I've missed? Anything economic? (My UK-focused portfolio is at an all-time high so maybe bring on more collapse??)

GS

Well everything may look fine if the only thing that you care about is money and you live in a certain area. Many ordinary British people though see a declining health system, education system, social care system, housing system, and many other things in decline. The only thing that is certainly increasing in the UK is violent crime.

As was said before, funny how China and Japan and most other countries in Asia seem to have no problem in controlling their borders.

I wouldn't have thought most people would pick China as a destination however it seems they do have a problem with illegal immigrants mostly Africans and Arabs overstaying visas, North Koreans, and Vietnamese, Cambodian and Burmese workers being smuggled into China illegally to work low-skilled jobs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_immigration_to_China

Japan also probably isn't most people's number one destination. However it does have an illegal immigration problem, it deports about 10,000 a year but has substantial numbers that they cannot repatriate many of whom have commited criminal offences in Japan.

https://japan-forward.com/fix-the-law-1-in-3-illegal-immigrants-in-japan-who-refuse-repatriation-has-criminal-record/

On November 29, the Japanese government and ruling party officials revealed that there are approximately 3,100 illegal immigrants in Japan who cannot be made to leave the country, either because they refuse to be repatriated or have other reasons. Among them, 1,000 have been convicted of crimes in Japan in the past.
.
.
.
About 10,000 illegal immigrants agree to be repatriated each year. However, as of the end of 2020, about 3,100 foreign nationals had refused to leave Japan, or their home countries refused to accept them for repatriation.

[dealtn]

Please reply bearing in mind this is The Economy board, and not elsewhere.

What evidence do you have this "millions" and what evidence an open economy and free movement of labour as you have described has led to this "neverending drain ..."?

The increase in the population is well known. Official increase of over 8 million in the last 20 years. The unaccounted figure is by definition unknown but going by the general collapse of everything in the UK, another 4 million or more unaccounted for seems quite possible.

But your "millions" was for "uncontrolled immigration of millions of illegal and economic migrants from mainly 3rd world countries." You have provided no evidence for a number anywhere approaching this. Similarly you have provided no evidence in a "never ending drain on the UK taxpayer".

Many serious commentators hold the view that an open economy, and immigration leads to an increase in economic activity, and concurrent with this is a net improvement in the fiscal position.

Odd that over the last 20 years GDP per capita (despite those "millions") has risen considerably if your argument were to hold

https://www.statista.com/statistics/970672/gdp-per-capita-in-the-uk/

[Tedx]

I have to agree. Forecasts indicate that western countries will do much better than the likes of China and Japan, simply because of immigration. Plummeting birth rates are going to leave much of Asia with a serious problem in the future.

[Nimrod103]

Odd that over the last 20 years GDP per capita (despite those "millions") has risen considerably if your argument were to hold

https://www.statista.com/statistics/970672/gdp-per-capita-in-the-uk/

If everything is hunky dory in the UK economy, as represented by the GDP per capita curve over the last 20 years, why do we need the highest tax levels since WW2 (https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/brits-face-b ... wo-budget/)? It doesn't make sense.

[Nimrod103]

I have to agree. Forecasts indicate that western countries will do much better than the likes of China and Japan, simply because of immigration. Plummeting birth rates are going to leave much of Asia with a serious problem in the future.

Many Western pundits make these predictions, but the Chinese and Japanese do not seem overly concerned. They are staking their futures on automation, high value exports and above all, social cohesion.

[dealtn]

Odd that over the last 20 years GDP per capita (despite those "millions") has risen considerably if your argument were to hold

https://www.statista.com/statistics/970672/gdp-per-capita-in-the-uk/

If everything is hunky dory in the UK economy, as represented by the GDP per capita curve over the last 20 years, why do we need the highest tax levels since WW2 (https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/brits-face-b ... wo-budget/)? It doesn't make sense.

Who is claiming everything is "hunky dory"?

[Steveam]

Odd that over the last 20 years GDP per capita (despite those "millions") has risen considerably if your argument were to hold

https://www.statista.com/statistics/970672/gdp-per-capita-in-the-uk/

If everything is hunky dory in the UK economy, as represented by the GDP per capita curve over the last 20 years, why do we need the highest tax levels since WW2 (https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/brits-face-b ... wo-budget/)? It doesn't make sense.

Perhaps some people are taking too big a piece of the pie. GINI might be of some interest. Perhaps we (our government) spend more than most on, for example, defence. I used to work for a large defence contractor (many, many years ago) and everything was gold plated and some … but Ukraine may indicate that this was wise expenditure.

Best wishes. Steve

[GoSeigen]

If everything is hunky dory in the UK economy, as represented by the GDP per capita curve over the last 20 years, why do we need the highest tax levels since WW2 (https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/brits-face-b ... wo-budget/)? It doesn't make sense.

Obvious innit? Because we've had a useless economically incompetent party in charge for the last 13 of those 20 years! They've borrowed ridiculous amounts to fund their "austerity" policies.


GS

[GoSeigen]

Well everything may look fine if the only thing that you care about is money and you live in a certain area. Many ordinary British people though see a declining health system, education system, social care system, housing system, and many other things in decline. The only thing that is certainly increasing in the UK is violent crime.

As was said before, funny how China and Japan and most other countries in Asia seem to have no problem in controlling their borders.

Oh it's not general collapse any more it's just decline. I'm glad we've cleared that up.

GS

[BullDog]

Wow, I've only been out of the UK 3 years and everything has collapsed! Looks like I got out just in time. Could someone summarise some of the effects of the collapse please? On my list so far:
1. Actual turds floating down rivers. That's not too cool.
2. Football, rugby and cricket teams all pants.
3. A foreigner is PM and his party in government have let in some 8 million more foreigners. They clearly LOVE foreigners which yes, is a sure sign of collapse.

Is there anything I've missed? Anything economic? (My UK-focused portfolio is at an all-time high so maybe bring on more collapse??)

GS

Well, I would say that many older people must be living in real fear of having a serious heart attack, serious stroke or very bad fall. One time not so long ago you were probably going to survive. Anecdotally, I think today you're more likely to die or suffer serious consequences before paramedic help arrives. That's if it ever does. I don't know when it became acceptable that we live like this. But in my late 60's now I am really very worried about such an eventuality. It seems there's nothing you can do except dial 999 and hope you win the lottery. Serious medical emergency is one thing where having money doesn't seem to help either.

[ursaminortaur]

Wow, I've only been out of the UK 3 years and everything has collapsed! Looks like I got out just in time. Could someone summarise some of the effects of the collapse please? On my list so far:
1. Actual turds floating down rivers. That's not too cool.
2. Football, rugby and cricket teams all pants.
3. A foreigner is PM and his party in government have let in some 8 million more foreigners. They clearly LOVE foreigners which yes, is a sure sign of collapse.

Is there anything I've missed? Anything economic? (My UK-focused portfolio is at an all-time high so maybe bring on more collapse??)

GS

Well, I would say that many older people must be living in real fear of having a serious heart attack, serious stroke or very bad fall. One time not so long ago you were probably going to survive. Anecdotally, I think today you're more likely to die or suffer serious consequences before paramedic help arrives. That's if it ever does. I don't know when it became acceptable that we live like this. But in my late 60's now I am really very worried about such an eventuality. It seems there's nothing you can do except dial 999 and hope you win the lottery. Serious medical emergency is one thing where having money doesn't seem to help either.

Co-incidentally I've just been informed that two of my colleagues, in their early sixties, who work in the computer department I worked at before retiring, have suffered massive strokes. One is almost completely paralysed and the other, who was planning on retiring in August, is paralysed down one side. However they have both received excellent care from the NHS and look like they will survive and hopefully will overtime recover.