IMF forced to tear up UK recession forecast

[Itsallaguess]

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has admitted it was wrong to predict a UK recession this year as it upgraded its UK growth forecasts for the second time in as many months.

Britain is now expected to grow 0.4pc this year, the IMF said. This is in contrast to a 0.3pc contraction projected just last month, which itself was an upgrade from an even more dour forecast made in the wake of October's mini-budget.

The latest upgrade means the UK is no longer predicted to be the worst performing major economy this year, although the IMF warned that the country’s long term growth prospects were significantly below pre-financial crisis levels.

The Fund said the near-term upgrade was driven by “higher-than-expected resilience” in demand and supply, amid a stronger jobs market and falling energy costs.

The Fund said in its annual evaluation of the UK economy: “Buoyed by resilient demand in the context of declining energy prices, the UK economy is expected to avoid a recession and maintain positive growth in 2023.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/23/imf-forced-tear-up-uk-recession-forecast/

As always, The Ruttles were approached for comment on such a miraculous about-turn from the IMF...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgttPt_1IG0

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Gerry557]

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=making+it+up+ ... -Vn6rVM-js

[Steveam]

Perhaps the additional 700,000 has helped buoy up GDP. The focus on growth or contraction of GDP is a great nonsense.

Best wishes,

Steve

[anon155742]

What are the per capita numbers?

[ADrunkenMarcus]

What are the per capita numbers?

Bad.

[Dod101]

Perhaps the additional 700,000 has helped buoy up GDP. The focus on growth or contraction of GDP is a great nonsense.

Best wishes,

Steve

What 700,000?

[Steveam]

Perhaps the additional 700,000 has helped buoy up GDP. The focus on growth or contraction of GDP is a great nonsense.

Best wishes,

Steve

What 700,000?

Likely immigrant numbers - I believe official publication is tomorrow. My comment led people to focus on the numbers but I had meant to focus on the nonsense of headline GDP numbers being of any interest. Per capita is slightly better but the fundamental problem is that GDP is, on its own, a poor measure and writing headlines about recession based on the GDP change is unhelpful.

Best wishes,

Steve