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Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

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GoSeigen
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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#597574

Postby GoSeigen » June 24th, 2023, 11:22 am

XFool wrote:But who is making that claim?


Do you believe he is quoting someone or being ironic when he writes this:

"The government can spend whatever it like because it has that bank. What is most especially true is that it never has to wait for taxes borrow money [sic] to come in before it can spend because all the money that it wants is available to it whenever it wishes simply by asking its own bank to make it available."


I feel he is making a point that it is a matter of real political choice what the government spends its money on.


Well that would be stating the bleeding obvious, and when I read it that doesn't seem to be the point he's making. He's ridiculing people for linking tax to spending; he's mocking the concept of government accountability to the taxpayer; he's encouraging the man in the street to proclaim that "tax doesn't pay for stuff" based on the say-so of someone who calls himself a chartered accountant.

GS

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#597586

Postby XFool » June 24th, 2023, 12:05 pm

GoSeigen wrote:
XFool wrote:But who is making that claim?

Do you believe he is quoting someone or being ironic when he writes this:

"The government can spend whatever it like because it has that bank. What is most especially true is that it never has to wait for taxes borrow money [sic] to come in before it can spend because all the money that it wants is available to it whenever it wishes simply by asking its own bank to make it available."

I feel he is making a point that it is a matter of real political choice what the government spends its money on.

Well that would be stating the bleeding obvious, and when I read it that doesn't seem to be the point he's making. He's ridiculing people for linking tax to spending; he's mocking the concept of government accountability to the taxpayer; he's encouraging the man in the street to proclaim that "tax doesn't pay for stuff" based on the say-so of someone who calls himself a chartered accountant.

To me that all sounds a very simplified version of what he appears to be saying.

However, as my knowledge of economics would not be enough to cover the rear of a postage stamp, I am just an interested bystander in these matters.

GoSeigen
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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#597617

Postby GoSeigen » June 24th, 2023, 1:32 pm

XFool wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:Do you believe he is quoting someone or being ironic when he writes this:

"The government can spend whatever it like because it has that bank. What is most especially true is that it never has to wait for taxes borrow money [sic] to come in before it can spend because all the money that it wants is available to it whenever it wishes simply by asking its own bank to make it available."


Well that would be stating the bleeding obvious, and when I read it that doesn't seem to be the point he's making. He's ridiculing people for linking tax to spending; he's mocking the concept of government accountability to the taxpayer; he's encouraging the man in the street to proclaim that "tax doesn't pay for stuff" based on the say-so of someone who calls himself a chartered accountant.

To me that all sounds a very simplified version of what he appears to be saying.


Agree, it's a shame that's the message people take from him.

GS

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#597717

Postby Tara » June 24th, 2023, 8:22 pm

GoSeigen wrote:
servodude wrote:There's so much nuance in how stuff actually works and from my own thinking the interest rate as the ONLY tool might have worked on a month to month basis when the majority of folk who had mortgages felt the effect every month
- now there's a lot of pent up hidden potential in the system


Indeed. Lurking behind this discussion is the "zero bound" which Krugman wrote about extensively. It was a real problem monetarily because you cannot have negative rates (to effect a purely monetary policy) on cash and cash substitutes (cryptos anyone?). So the Friedmanite tool of simply lowering rates to stimulate demand wasn't available. This is ultimately what prompted a return to governments (r. central banks) expanding the money supply. Keynes said that Governments should spend/invest in those circumstances. The Obama administration took that onboard, the UK government did not, they were urged on by their aged electorate who still remembered and feared inflation (this is in the years leading to 2010) and wanted them to fight the same battle as their hero Thatcher did in the 1980s -- reduce the size of government (never mind that it was diminished already), reduce borrowing (never mind that it was sitting at generational lows), incentivise capital (never mind that it was already dominant). So you get a decade of government doing exactly the wrong thing and the monetary branch trying to cope with that AND the threat of deflation.

Is it any surprise that against that backdrop and the distractions of Scottish referendums (you must not leave a union), endless Brexit (we must leave a union, f£ck b£siness) and COVID (we found the magic money tree!) most people lost the habit of looking both ways?

There's a lot of important stuff that has simply been overlooked, left on the back-burner or just done wrong.


Having said all that, the pound is still worth a silly amount and UK shares on the floor, so I think there's an opportunity for investors.

GS


What does it mean “the pound is still worth a silly amount” ?

Do you mean the pound is too high, or too low ?

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#597721

Postby Lootman » June 24th, 2023, 8:54 pm

GoSeigen wrote:I'll diminish myself by saying I am not an expert or economist of any sort, all from my own reading and experience of the markets. Caveat emptor!

Yeah, economics doesn't really interest me unless I can find a way for such knowledge to make me money in the markets. And that is rare.

And in all my years of working in the markets, I cannot recall too many economists who were successful investors. Certainly Keynes was not - he admitted as much.

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#597731

Postby Nimrod103 » June 24th, 2023, 9:41 pm

Lootman wrote:And in all my years of working in the markets, I cannot recall too many economists who were successful investors. Certainly Keynes was not - he admitted as much.


Many say Keynes wasn't much of an economist either.

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#597754

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 25th, 2023, 6:36 am

Tara wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
Indeed. Lurking behind this discussion is the "zero bound" which Krugman wrote about extensively. It was a real problem monetarily because you cannot have negative rates (to effect a purely monetary policy) on cash and cash substitutes (cryptos anyone?). So the Friedmanite tool of simply lowering rates to stimulate demand wasn't available. This is ultimately what prompted a return to governments (r. central banks) expanding the money supply. Keynes said that Governments should spend/invest in those circumstances. The Obama administration took that onboard, the UK government did not, they were urged on by their aged electorate who still remembered and feared inflation (this is in the years leading to 2010) and wanted them to fight the same battle as their hero Thatcher did in the 1980s -- reduce the size of government (never mind that it was diminished already), reduce borrowing (never mind that it was sitting at generational lows), incentivise capital (never mind that it was already dominant). So you get a decade of government doing exactly the wrong thing and the monetary branch trying to cope with that AND the threat of deflation.

Is it any surprise that against that backdrop and the distractions of Scottish referendums (you must not leave a union), endless Brexit (we must leave a union, f£ck b£siness) and COVID (we found the magic money tree!) most people lost the habit of looking both ways?

There's a lot of important stuff that has simply been overlooked, left on the back-burner or just done wrong.


Having said all that, the pound is still worth a silly amount and UK shares on the floor, so I think there's an opportunity for investors.

GS


What does it mean “the pound is still worth a silly amount” ?

Do you mean the pound is too high, or too low ?

Probably high. Given recent FX rates against USD and the Euro.

I think he's saying if you buy a UK share that earns a lot abroad right now, that when GBP falls back to, for example, 1.20USD the value of that share's profits in GBP will rise.

Matt

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#597775

Postby dealtn » June 25th, 2023, 9:28 am

Lootman wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:I'll diminish myself by saying I am not an expert or economist of any sort, all from my own reading and experience of the markets. Caveat emptor!

Yeah, economics doesn't really interest me unless I can find a way for such knowledge to make me money in the markets. And that is rare.

And in all my years of working in the markets, I cannot recall too many economists who were successful investors. Certainly Keynes was not - he admitted as much.


I've known a few. I even employed one.

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#597882

Postby GoSeigen » June 25th, 2023, 4:44 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
Tara wrote:
What does it mean “the pound is still worth a silly amount” ?

Do you mean the pound is too high, or too low ?

Probably high. Given recent FX rates against USD and the Euro.

I think he's saying if you buy a UK share that earns a lot abroad right now, that when GBP falls back to, for example, 1.20USD the value of that share's profits in GBP will rise.

Matt


Yep, high. I think sterling has support from expectation of further rate rises, this is in turn depressing UK stock prices. Will be interesting to see if that reverses in time.

GS

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#597888

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 25th, 2023, 4:59 pm

Lootman wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:I'll diminish myself by saying I am not an expert or economist of any sort, all from my own reading and experience of the markets. Caveat emptor!

Yeah, economics doesn't really interest me unless I can find a way for such knowledge to make me money in the markets. And that is rare.

And in all my years of working in the markets, I cannot recall too many economists who were successful investors. Certainly Keynes was not - he admitted as much.

He both lost and made fortunes actually.

https://www.politico.com/story/2012/04/ ... ell-075365

Ending up with about half a million in 1936 ten years before his death. So I'd say was just being modest and actually a good bloody investor!

Matt

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#600067

Postby Tedx » July 5th, 2023, 1:27 pm

No wonder Lootmans posh restaurants are full and his planes to exotic destinations are overbooked.

No wonder inflation isn't coming down......

Image




https://billmitchell.org/blog/wp-conten ... 4_2023.png

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#600077

Postby Nimrod103 » July 5th, 2023, 2:04 pm

Tedx wrote:No wonder Lootmans posh restaurants are full and his planes to exotic destinations are overbooked.

No wonder inflation isn't coming down......

Image




https://billmitchell.org/blog/wp-conten ... 4_2023.png


The graph is a bit misleading I would have thought. Interest (gross of course, tax not taken account of) will be paid on a lot of accounts, even small ones of grannies, but has never in recent history ever exceeded inflation. So all of the "savings income" is actually just trying to keep up with inflation. Meanwhile the mortgage payments are quite affected in the last few years by so many being on fixed low rates, many of which will be expiring later this year.

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#600783

Postby NeilW » July 8th, 2023, 4:52 pm

GoSeigen wrote:Well that would be stating the bleeding obvious, and when I read it that doesn't seem to be the point he's making. He's ridiculing people for linking tax to spending; he's mocking the concept of government accountability to the taxpayer; he's encouraging the man in the street to proclaim that "tax doesn't pay for stuff" based on the say-so of someone who calls himself a chartered accountant.

GS


You can of course believe what you like, but the simple operational fact of the UK spending system is that tax collection, and government settlement are not connected. Not at all - anywhere up the chain.

To the extent that there are two separate acts of Parliament covering them. The Supply and Appropriation Act gives government departments the authority to make payments in Sterling. The Finance Act gives HMRC the authority to collect taxes.

Every day the Consolidated Fund Account at the Bank of England starts with a zero balance, and every day ~£400m of state pension expenditure is transferred from that account to the Paymaster drawing account by 8:30am, which is then used to settle the BACS payments across the banking system. The Bank of England has no authority to halt a payment. s13 and s15 of the Exchequer and Audit Departments Act 1866 requires that the Bank make the issues.

Tax collection proceeds separately into HMRC's accounts at the Bank of England. It is only swept into the Consolidated Fund at the end of the day.

The net result of all this is that government spending adds money to the system and taxation drains it. Paying a nurse causes income tax and national insurance, when the nurse spends their remaining salary that causes VAT to arise. Then the remainder is used to pay salaries and profit which causes more income tax and NI and a little corporation tax perhaps. The spending of the what is left continues down the chain, like a stone skipping across a pond. If nobody saves anything anywhere down the spending chain then the sum of the taxation streams will exactly equal what government spent for any positive tax rate. All tax rates do is change is the number of transactions necessary to get there. It's a simple geometric series.

There isn't a fixed amount of money people are fighting over. It's a dynamic quantity that grows and shrinks as necessary to get transactions done. The quantity of taxation raised has little to do with the rates charged and more to do with the amount people decide to save rather than spend.

What that means is that, in real terms, taxation is about reducing the capacity of the private sector to offer jobs to people. That leaves some people unemployed, which the public sector can then hire to achieve the public purpose and pay accordingly. That payment is always newly created money. Each time, every time - just has it has been for the last 150 years or so.

Gory details here if you're interested.

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#600794

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 8th, 2023, 6:23 pm

An interview with Lyn Alden chronically interest rates and inflation from the 1940s to present day.

Gives some interesting perspectives on the OPs question of post 1.

I'm only about 8 minutes but she's already comparing money supply increase from bank loan creation, and that by fiscal policy (stimulus cheques/furlough etc.). Some may find it useful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-Ns8CrkunI

Matt

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#600796

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 8th, 2023, 6:41 pm

Part of what she's saying is that raising rates in the 70's was a useful tool to fight inflation those days, because the ratio of fiscal-debit/GDP was lower and the much of the excessive money supply which (in addition to oil supply shocks) cause inflation came from bank loan creation for the private sector.

Unfortunately now in the 2020s we have higher ratios of fiscal debt/GDP, and hence higher rates are actually making fiscal-debt more expensive, which could make the problem worse since the government will then to more money the next year to pay off debt at a higher rate of interest.

I think.

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#600824

Postby GoSeigen » July 8th, 2023, 8:21 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Part of what she's saying is that raising rates in the 70's was a useful tool to fight inflation those days, because the ratio of fiscal-debit/GDP was lower and the much of the excessive money supply which (in addition to oil supply shocks) cause inflation came from bank loan creation for the private sector.

Unfortunately now in the 2020s we have higher ratios of fiscal debt/GDP, and hence higher rates are actually making fiscal-debt more expensive, which could make the problem worse since the government will then to more money the next year to pay off debt at a higher rate of interest.

I think.


5 minutes in and agree 100% so far, exactly what I've been saying in this thread and elsewhere. Especially notable is the comment at the beginning about recency bias, which I express slightly differently, i.e. that there is a cycle and most people look backwards through the cycle to find "the last time" something happened and end up at completely the wrong point in the cycle. So the 70s -- opposite end of the cycle to now, government was dominant, not capital as now, demographics bottom heavy not top heavy as now, etc etc.

Nice find MCB, will enjoy watching the rest I'm sure. Then will be interesting to find out more about the interviewee.

GS

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#600894

Postby Nimrod103 » July 9th, 2023, 8:45 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Part of what she's saying is that raising rates in the 70's was a useful tool to fight inflation those days, because the ratio of fiscal-debit/GDP was lower and the much of the excessive money supply which (in addition to oil supply shocks) cause inflation came from bank loan creation for the private sector.


I am not an economist, but I feel she is getting bogged down in details of transmission mechanisms, rather than dealing with the underlying issue of too high a money supply.


TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Unfortunately now in the 2020s we have higher ratios of fiscal debt/GDP, and hence higher rates are actually making fiscal-debt more expensive, which could make the problem worse since the government will then to more money the next year to pay off debt at a higher rate of interest.


All this is saying is that because Governments carry so much more debt now, rising interest rates means paying to borrow is a lot more painful. Which is true, but that means that rising interest rates will have a stronger effect on inflation, forcing Govts to cut their borrowing more quickly. The heavily indebted, like water companies and private equity and LBO's are already suffering badly, and will need restructuring. Housing in the UK will take a little longer because of the number of outstanding fixed rate mortgages which have not yet reverted to market rates.

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#600900

Postby scotview » July 9th, 2023, 9:20 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Part of what she's saying is that raising rates in the 70's was a useful tool to fight inflation those days, because the ratio of fiscal-debit/GDP was lower.


Was the nature of the UK GDP different in the 70's than today ie prior to the Chinese industrial revolution ? Were we not a more industrial nation in the 70's, actually producing products ?

Or is that observation not relevant. I mean, what does the UK produce now, what GDP ?

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#600904

Postby GoSeigen » July 9th, 2023, 9:28 am

scotview wrote:Was the nature of the UK GDP different in the 70's than today ie prior to the Chinese industrial revolution ? Were we not a more industrial nation in the 70's, actually producing products ?

Or is that observation not relevant. I mean, what does the UK produce now, what GDP ?


Have you ever invested in a UK business scotview?


GS

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Re: Does raising base rates really reduce inflation?

#600909

Postby scotview » July 9th, 2023, 9:39 am

GoSeigen wrote:
Have you ever invested in a UK business scotview?

GS


Yes.....but nearly everything I buy is cheap, very high quality and inevitably comes with a "made in China" sticker, that's all I'm saying. As I said my observation maybe isn't relevant.


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