Yield curve still massively inverted - is it still relevant?

[vand]

It used to be single best predictor of economic recession - the inverted yield curve.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

But it's been inverted for a full year now, and the US economy shows not even a whiff of entering recession. And what's more, not just by a "squint to see it" amount, but deeply inverted to the highest degree we have seen for at least 40 years.

Is it still important? Or do people still believe we'll be in recession within 12 months (the usual historic 2yr timeline) ?


Another data point to consider - economic contractions rarely begin during periods of interest rate rises. History shows that they always begin after the rate rising cycle has peaked.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS


What say ye all.