Exchange forecasting

[Joewads]

Cannot see a topic on this. Apologies if wrong

Clearly there is no crystal ball to predict exchange rates over 2-5 years, but are there any specific commentators or resources that you would favour for this?

Only interested in sterling/USD and sterling/euro, unless someone has exotic advice such a BUY PESOS NOW!

Many thanks
Papawads

[dealtn]

Cannot see a topic on this. Apologies if wrong

Clearly there is no crystal ball to predict exchange rates over 2-5 years, but are there any specific commentators or resources that you would favour for this?

Only interested in sterling/USD and sterling/euro, unless someone has exotic advice such a BUY PESOS NOW!

Many thanks
Papawads

The current markets are the best forecasters of exchange rates. That is literally what they are. The spot FX rate gives you the current exchange rate, and if you don't have access to the forward FX market then you can derive it from the interest rate differentials between the 2 currencies. Otherwise you would have free arbitrage.

Whether that forecast proves to be accurate or not is another question.

[vand]

You have the same tools and methods as anyone for trying to predict future prices for markets: fundamental macro analysis and technical analysis.

[Lootman]

Cannot see a topic on this. Apologies if wrong

Clearly there is no crystal ball to predict exchange rates over 2-5 years, but are there any specific commentators or resources that you would favour for this?

Only interested in sterling/USD and sterling/euro, unless someone has exotic advice such a BUY PESOS NOW!

The current markets are the best forecasters of exchange rates. That is literally what they are. The spot FX rate gives you the current exchange rate, and if you don't have access to the forward FX market then you can derive it from the interest rate differentials between the 2 currencies. Otherwise you would have free arbitrage.

Whether that forecast proves to be accurate or not is another question.

Yes. Whilst I am always cynical about anyone who claims to have a method of "beating the market", I am doubly so in the case of the FX markets which are just too large and liquid for any individual to have a usable edge.

That said, certain trends seem to have been going on for decades, such as the inexorable decline of sterling, although never in a straight line. It has basically been declining for fifty-odd years and I would never bet on that changing, especially since I am already over-exposed to sterling because I own UK property and have some sterling income.

The USD always seems to do well in times of crisis, fitting its status as a safe haven currency. Swiss francs are solid but forget about getting any interest on them. That's about it for me.

[1nvest]

I use Robert Lichello's AIM and recently that's indicating a sell some of BRK (US$ stock) and is nearing a FT250 buy (add more) signal ... indicative that the dollar is up (so reduce), Pound is down (so add). i.e. rather than me, a single individual with a low powered laptop, trying to out smart the market comprised of millions with high tech/skills I just let that collective market guide me. Trades infrequently, sometimes years between signals, but does a good-enough job for me.

[1nvest]

The USD always seems to do well in times of crisis, fitting its status as a safe haven currency. Swiss francs are solid but forget about getting any interest on them. That's about it for me.

Swiss Franc was pegged to gold up to the early 2000's, no more. Neither is their former respect of privacy, now signed up to data sharing. Their ice solidity is melting. Japan was a relatively close second, but again a 'was'. Gold, US$ and Pounds is my sole focus/holdings, but I follow market driven adjustments rather than predictive.