Autumn Statement 23 November 2016

[PinkDalek]

This Forum is described as covering "The Economy including Budgets" so I imagine the Autumn Statement should be covered here (rather than on Taxes which is described as Practical Issues).

Anyway, I think this is the place to watch for the announcements:

https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-e ... ement-2016

[SteMiS]

OBR forecast GDP will be 2.4% lower as a result of Brexit vote. As a result UK government debt will be higher by over £100bn.

[PinkDalek]

OBR forecast GDP will be 2.4% lower as a result of Brexit vote. As a result UK government debt will be higher by over £100bn.

Thanks. Am now looking here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/autu ... -announced

Which includes "25. Insurance Premium Tax will increase by 2% from 1 June 2017" and this strange explanation "Insurance Premium Tax (IPT) will increase from 10% to 12%. IPT is a tax on insurers and it is up to them whether and how to pass on costs to customers.

Whether and how?

[redsturgeon]

Which includes "25. Insurance Premium Tax will increase by 2% from 1 June 2017" and this strange explanation "Insurance Premium Tax (IPT) will increase from 10% to 12%. IPT is a tax on insurers and it is up to them whether and how to pass on costs to customers.

10% to 12%, I make that a 20% increase!

Of course 2% sounds more benign.

John

[PinkDalek]

10% to 12%, I make that a 20% increase!

Of course 2% sounds more benign.

IPT was 6% prior to November 2015 meaning it will have doubled over two years or so. Will the increase be sufficient to merge NI and IT?

[PinkDalek]

In more detail for those who are searching:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ement-2016

[coleyfish]

So, the Autumn statement is to be abolished to be replaced by an Autumn Budget and we will have a Spring statement instead.

Wow, Phillip, radical stuff!

In other news - forecasts for GDP cut quite substantially
- continued push up of tax bands - good - but why so much for high rate taxpayers
- increase in "living wage" good but not enough. High rate taxpayers will get an additional allowance of £5K against
an increase in "living wage" of £500
- £4K annual allowance if you access flexi drawdown in pension.
- another ear-marked "fund" this time labelled "productivity"
- no further welfare savings - slight surprise given the increase in deficit.
- no increase in fuel duty
- ban on upfront letting agent fees - if ever there was a storm in a teacup this is it
- welcome boost in infrastructure spending - about time
- clamp down on whiplash scams and pension liberation scams - about time

All in all and bar the inevitable small print and "further consultation" announcements, which usually means nasty things being announced post statement or Budget this looks better than expected, even though it still dos not address the basic problems of deficit and debt, which are being booted well down the road.

Could have been worse and could have been more austerity.

Coleyfish

[StepOne]

Figures are in table 2.1 here https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ement-2016

Increasing the VAT charge for 'low-cost companies' is another move to hit IT contractors and other single-person companies. Makes sense. I think cutting back on salary sacrifice schemes is a good idea as well. Although personally I would have scrapped the cycle-to-work one as well. It's only used by people who would have bought a bike anyway.

I like how 'aligning' NI thresholds gains the government £145m a year. That's some 'alignment'.

[Itsallaguess]

OBR forecast GDP will be 2.4% lower as a result of Brexit vote. As a result UK government debt will be higher by over £100bn.

A picture paints a thousand words - https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cx9JyKJXgAEKU1D.jpg

That's not economic Armageddon.....

That's 'a price worth paying' to leave the EU.

Itsallaguess

[Alaric]

So, the Autumn statement is to be abolished to be replaced by an Autumn Budget and we will have a Spring statement instead.

That just repeats what Ken Clarke did in the early 1990s. Gordon moved the budget back to the Spring.

[SteMiS]

That's 'a price worth paying' to leave the EU.

But that's the point; it's a PRICE. Whether it's 'worth paying' is a different matter. What is increasingly clear however is that rather than there being a financial reward for leaving (the now pretty much derided £350m), there is a cost; a cost that affects what we can spend on the NHS, for example. I don't think it'll be clear what that cost is for sometime (if ever) but all we are doing now is quantifying the hole...

[Itsallaguess]

That's 'a price worth paying' to leave the EU.

But that's the point; it's a PRICE.

Again though, you're solely concentrating on a potential cost.

That's like going out to buy a new car and forever lamenting on the reduction in your bank balance.

Do try to remember what the benefits are from time to time...

Itsallaguess

[PinkDalek]

I hope this thread, as short as it is at present, doesn't become one of those oft repeated and repetitive versions still available in read only at the closed early TMF "Brexit" board.

I have an idea, why not start a "Brexit" topic?

Please.

[Eboli]

...but why so much for high rate taxpayers...High rate taxpayers will get an additional allowance of £5K against
an increase in "living wage" of £500
Coleyfish

I appreciate I have selectively quoted you (and apologies if I have missed a relevant item) but the answer may be in where you decide to start the analysis. The systematic alignment of NICs with IT thresholds over a number of years and the way the basic rate band has been manipulated to restrict or remove benefits of increases in PAs to higher-rate taxpayers. This is could be viewed as a reversal of a trend that has been in place for many years. It depends upon your time frame.

Eb.

[PinkDalek]

I appreciate I have selectively quoted you (and apologies if I have missed a relevant item) but the answer may be in where you decide to start the analysis. The systematic alignment of NICs with IT thresholds over a number of years and the way the basic rate band has been manipulated to restrict or remove benefits of increases in PAs to higher-rate taxpayers. This is could be viewed as a reversal of a trend that has been in place for many years. It depends upon your time frame.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... 2016#tax-1 includes "Next year, the personal allowance will rise to £11,500 and the higher rate threshold to £45,000.". Next year meaning 2017-18.

Whereas https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... or-2017-18 shows Tax year 2017-18 Higher rate £33,500.

The "higher rate threshold" of £45,000 for 2017-18 therefore comprises the £11,500 personal allowance and the basic rate band of £33,500 = total £45,000.

The figures for 2016-17 are, I think, £11,000 personal allowance and a basic rate band of £32,000 = total £43,000.

Therefore an increase in the total of £2,000. Made up of an increase in the personal allowance of £500 and an increase in the basic rate band of £1,500.

Where am I going wrong or does Coley's £5,000 refer to "Personal allowance and higher rate threshold – The government will meet its commitment to raise the income tax personal allowance to £12,500 and the higher rate threshold to £50,000, by the end of this Parliament." in one of the links above?

[Itsallaguess]

Where am I going wrong or does Coley's £5,000 refer to "Personal allowance and higher rate threshold – The government will meet its commitment to raise the income tax personal allowance to £12,500 and the higher rate threshold to £50,000, by the end of this Parliament." in one of the links above?

Is the £5000 allowance that Coley is referring to the new Dividend-allowance?

From April 2016 the Dividend Tax Credit will be replaced by a new tax-free Dividend Allowance.

The Dividend Allowance means that you won’t have to pay tax on the first £5,000 of your dividend income, no matter what non-dividend income you have.

The allowance is available to anyone who has dividend income.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -factsheet

Itsallaguess

[PinkDalek]

Is the £5000 allowance that Coley is referring to the new Dividend-allowance?

From April 2016 the Dividend Tax Credit will be replaced by a new tax-free Dividend Allowance.

The Dividend Allowance means that you won’t have to pay tax on the first £5,000 of your dividend income, no matter what non-dividend income you have.

The allowance is available to anyone who has dividend income.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -factsheet

Itsallaguess

Unlikely as it is no longer "new" and was much discussed on TMF's Taxes Practical and elsewhere!

I'm fairly certain Coley was talking about the "£50,000, by the end of this Parliament" which would consist of an income tax personal allowance of £12,500 and a basic rate band of £37,500.

No change seems to have been proposed to the £100,000 Income limit for personal allowances.

[simoan]

So, the Autumn statement is to be abolished to be replaced by an Autumn Budget and we will have a Spring statement instead.

That just repeats what Ken Clarke did in the early 1990s. Gordon moved the budget back to the Spring.

This is clearly a direct consequence of the government planning to push the button on Article 50 in March 2017. It would be a pretty stupid time to try and do, or announce, anything meaningful. Wait to see if there's any brown stuff, and if there is, wait 6 months for it to hit the fan before making any fiscal or budgetary adjustments. Sounds a perfectly sensible approach.

Si

[Alaric]

I'm fairly certain Coley was talking about the "£50,000, by the end of this Parliament" which would consist of an income tax personal allowance of £12,500 and a basic rate band of £37,500.

Cuts to Income Tax favour those who pay much of it. But you need to keep a decent sized band between the earnings level at which 20% tax starts to be payable and 40% tax starts. Ideally some sort of policy that no more than x% of taxpayers will be expected to pay tax at 40%. That x% has been increasing over recent years out of a desire not to cut the tax bill for higher earners as a consequence of increasing personal allowances.

A ratio of 1:3 between the 0% and 20% bands seems a reasonable objective.

[coleyfish]

PD wrote

I'm fairly certain Coley was talking about the "£50,000, by the end of this Parliament" which would consist of an income tax personal allowance of £12,500 and a basic rate band of £37,500.]

This is correct - I should have been clearer.

Coleyfish