Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to bruncher,mark88man,stirlo,johnstevens77,Rhyd6, for Donating to support the site

The Trading Log

Honest reporting on shorter-term trading activity and ideas
StepOne
Lemon Slice
Posts: 643
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:17 am
Has thanked: 189 times
Been thanked: 174 times

Re: The Trading Log

#300881

Postby StepOne » April 15th, 2020, 4:13 pm

And just to point out that csd hasn't confirmed if he got back in at 763. That price was available for one day. It's currently well over 9 pounds which would have eaten significantly into the claimed 34% profit from shorting. So unless you are mystic meg there's not much attractive about the strategy being suggested.

StepOne

compscidude
Posts: 30
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

Re: The Trading Log

#344336

Postby compscidude » October 2nd, 2020, 6:24 am

Hello everyone

To be clear: I didn’t say I was buying MYI and I didn’t buy MYI. (It went up since then)

The point of my last post was to re-raise a previous discussion and highlight that the investing thesis ‘the best time to buy is always today’ is misguided and makes a strong and unwise claim about what will happen in the future. Ie. that the shares you are interested in can never, ever again be lower in price in future, returns included. It is especially inappropriate for such a view to be presented rudely or hubristically during a market bubble.

Anyway for a thesis about the entirety of the future to be shown wrong, a single counterexample is needed, which I provided with detail. I do not need to then personally decide to invest in some company at some example price in order for a point about price availability to be demonstrated correct.

Separately, I also reject the thesis that the stockmarket itself should ever decide for you what price you are willing to pay for something. If I go to a restaurant and find the menu prices have doubled or tripled since my last visit, I can choose not to eat there, or to wait for them to drop prices or hold a special offer. The restaurant does not decide what I am willing to pay, I do.

I believe that fundamentals matter (earnings, debt, revenue, margin, moat, sector etc) and that these should guide the price you are willing to pay. I believe that what the market thinks something is worth today is irrelevant to any sane investing decision and that it is normal to hold cash (or similar) for years at a time during extended bubble periods. Though one eye should be kept on long term inflation during these years. (Anything under 3% being irrelevant in my view).

——

Regarding this thread: To be clear I feel if I (or anyone) don’t state clearly eg “I bought X amount of Y at price Z today” it should not be considered a logged trade. Or if someone makes claims that aren’t consistent ie they appear to trade >100% of portfolio without discussing margin.

——

If I had bought MYI, I would have had a very nice and fast profit from it this year because I would have absolutely have sold it into the summer bubble for a quick 25% profit. But I decided just to leave it, and so I have no profit from earlier in the year.

——

I was taken by surprise when the Fed dumped around 3x the total cash stimulus of all of 2007-2009 into the market in the space of 5 minutes.

My buy point for several indices was about 5-10% lower than was reached eg 35-40% drop in broad indices *in GBP terms*, based of a study of past market crashes and the economic factors that drove them.

In this crash, the £ was randomly absolutely crushed at market lows against most currencies (1.15/USD) which is a significant and unpredictable problem for £ based investors. I was looking at VHYL, EUE, VERX and of course MYI and BRK (which despite dropping in $ terms, jumped effectively back up 15% in £ terms due to instant £ devaluation). The rapid and deep and brief £ devaluation at exactly the point I wanted to trade in $ terms was *annoying* and so I’ve put some thought into how to mitigate the modern unpredictability of the £ currency in future.

——

The following bit is separate to discussion of ‘the best time to buy is now’ and is about the risks for £-investors and the changing nature of investing in 2020 and going forward.

For me, the key lessons of that week were:

1) to not sit down and calculate the total scale of the US Fed stimulus when it was announced and compare it to the scale and effects of previous market intervention by the Fed. I would have probably went to 50% VHYL on the spot if I had realised just how big it was. However I didn’t do that calculation and so I didn’t go to 50% stock.

2) I should probably have flipped my £ to $ in preparation for an intended later BRK trade long ago, when the £ was at an ok rate a couple of years ago like 1.41.

I had thought until recently you could only hold £ in an ISA. I did not realise at that time I could do some effective forex in an ISA by simply buying a $-T-bond ETF inside the ISA and holding it. By the time I figured that out, it was already the year 2020. There’s some interest rate risk to this strategy but nothing like the shocking £ instant deep devaluations we’ve seen several times since the brexit vote.

Seeing the £ drop like that *too many times* in recent years probably makes it an extremely bad currency for investors looking to buy international shares (including FTSE mega caps). I will probably go with € or $ for cash-like positions for the foreseeable future if the £ recovers and I see a favourable rate to make the switch.

——

Like coronavirus, random events happen and random events can matter. I was not alone in being surprised by the Fed intervention’s scale, I believe even Buffett was selling (airlines) rather than buying anything in Feb/Mar and has broadly maintained or grown his cash position over the year. So at least I have good company alongside me, if not good profits :-)

I also feel a bit uncomfortable about investing around these Fed interventions. I’ve read several books in recent years discussing historical central bank interventions (Dalio’s debt crises book is great) but lately investing feels like spinning a Fed roulette wheel rather than actual investing - if such interventions can be so sudden (much much earlier than previous interventions into declines), so fast (in minutes rather than years) and at this new incredible scale.

It is an effect that dominates the normal behaviour of the market not just at the moment of intervention but as a new risk factor for investing in general- an elephant may burst out of the bushes and trample you if it suddenly moves in or out of the market at such scale and speed. The Fed has always been an elephant but now it is a mega-elephant, some 100x bigger and faster than before. I do not know what the long term consequences of this will be, but it raises the risks of stockmarket investing.

——

Now speaking personally:

Am I upset by not making money earlier in the year? No, just as I was not upset by shares being high in 2018 or 2019. Ie not at all. The stock market is always an option to be considered, not a requirement. If it isn’t at a price I’m willing to pay then it is completely irrelevant what the market does. It’s annoying that the world has changed in an unpredictable way (re: fed intervention, instability of the £) but compared to the other unpredictable events of the year...

——

Anyway - to get back to where I began, the point of my post was to illustrate that the idea ‘the best time to buy is always today’ is flawed. It makes a very strong claim about the future, namely that the market or particular shares, including returns, will never go down again. And that view is wrong.

Which leads to my next post...

compscidude
Posts: 30
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

Re: The Trading Log

#344341

Postby compscidude » October 2nd, 2020, 7:01 am

My current logged position prior to this post was still 0% shares.

In real life I’ve made two trades in the last few days.

RDSB, 25% of portfolio at 955p.
BP, 12.5% of portfolio at 230p.

The current market price is 4-5% *below* my purchase price and the market is currently closed.

Feel welcome to track this trade from the numbers I just gave, or from eg the price of these shares at 8.30am this morning (Friday 2 Oct 2020) after the market opens. (Whichever one makes the trade look worse.)

If anyone is curious about why: the companies have a good long term record of returning earnings as dividends/buybacks to shareholders in a variety of economic environments, the prices of these companies are at or near *25 year lows*, I believe the current oil price is not sustainable, dividends have been rebased, it’s a balance to brexit risks to my £, and because I expect the share prices to do well in £ terms if any of the following happen:

- OPEC and friends make deeper cuts to supply
- $ USD devaluation (raising apparent price of oil, lowering US/Asia costs)
- cure or vaccine for corona, especially if sooner than expected
- international war with Iran or China
- random fed/government intervention pushing up whole market
- random inexplicable bigger stock market bubble
- change in market sentiment towards oil
- BP announces they have made their last payment for the oil spill 10 years ago. I believe they’re now around 99% of the way there.


I expect the shares to do worse for a while if:
- OPEC collapses or can not maintain discipline
- unexpected very soft brexit
- no cure or vaccine for corona
- possible political risk involving high carbon taxes , Biden win (likely)
- shock news in the sector eg Exxon cancels or reduces the dividend , Major oil spill

One thing that annoys me is the thought of RDSB buybacks at much higher prices as wasted money. But c’est la vie with buybacks.

Generally I note RDSB and now BP are pivoting towards renewables which offer lower but more stable returns. I think a part of the recent price drop is merited due to high extraction cost oil being much less likely to ever be sold. I prefer eg RDSB/Total over eg Exxon which is doubling down on being a pure oil-only company and has not rebased its dividend yet... but probably will.

I am kind of interested in a little bit of Total too but between 13% divi tax and a much higher price / lower discount than BP/RDSB I will continue waiting.

Commiserations to anyone who believes ‘the best time to buy is always today’ and was therefore paying eg >2300p for RDSB in January or >500p for BP in January. I do not believe the underlying prospects of these companies has changed so much in 9 months as the market price has.

I’ve also considered HSBC lately but between Hong Kong risks/China, recession / bad debt losses, general brexit & corona malaise for the UK, and new money laundering headlines, it doesn’t feel like a great time to buy it even though its share price is *also* at a 25 year low. Banks, a sliver of equity atop an iceberg of trouble.

compscidude
Posts: 30
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

Re: The Trading Log

#344347

Postby compscidude » October 2nd, 2020, 7:28 am

I see that in the hour or two it took to prepare those posts, the US has just announced Trump has COVID-19. An interesting example of how frequently we see random yet significant events reshape our world (and markets).

One other point I want to log: it feels like the US and UK (maybe the broader world too) are approaching some kind of political, economic, social/moral, health, and environment Seldon Crisis* arriving over the next 3 months. I think this US election will be unusually significant, and I expect to see further shock changes in UK politics this year as the reality of the default hard brexit deadline approaches and we start to face various consequences - eg EU legal action announcement, trade problems.

I think it’s quite likely we will see some unusual and interesting investment opportunities show up in the next 3 months and I will be a little bit surprised if I’m not fully invested before the end of January 2021.

* probably combined with a financial Minsky Moment, also worth googling if you don’t know these terms :-)

compscidude
Posts: 30
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

Re: The Trading Log

#344357

Postby compscidude » October 2nd, 2020, 8:14 am

Four more points I forgot to include:

1. Just 2 days ago Trump was in a room for 90 minutes just meters away from the other presidential candidate who is also elderly and at risk from corona. Was Trump infectious at that time? This could become an even more unusual period for world politics and thus investing.

2. Re: oil/energy majors. I also looked at Chevron, Equinor and Eni. RDSB / BP have the dividend advantage (no withholding tax) for a UK investor and the biggest discounts to peak price. I think all of the energy majors stand to benefit long term from the easy availability of long term borrowings at rates close to zero, it’s the perfect time to pivot.

3. It’s also interesting to compare eg the market cap and revenues today of say Exxon ($140 bn cap, 256 bn revenue) with say Zoom ($140 bn cap, 0.7 bn revenue). A divi aristocrat and a non-payer.

4. Strange market. It feels like the latter part of the tech bubble in 2001, and like the developing bank crisis in 2007, and like the oil major crash in 2016, with a backdrop of 1918 flu and the economic crash and volatility it induced, and all at the same time. Anyway I guess this is a trading log more than a feelings or history log, but perhaps this post will capture a slice of life at this moment in history, as the background of the trades I placed.

Comp

BellaHubby
Posts: 46
Joined: January 21st, 2017, 11:57 am
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 15 times

Re: The Trading Log

#344366

Postby BellaHubby » October 2nd, 2020, 8:42 am

compscidude wrote:The point of my last post was to re-raise a previous discussion and highlight that the investing thesis ‘the best time to buy is always today’ is misguided and makes a strong and unwise claim about what will happen in the future. Ie. that the shares you are interested in can never, ever again be lower in price in future, returns included..

I would say that is incorrect. "The best time to buy is always today" is not about what will happen in the future. It's about not knowing what will happen in the future. Most people do not have the skills to read the future, or, perhaps more dangerously, think they do.

edit.... markets go up and down, but always go up over a sufficiently long period of time, so on average. buying today will win.

bh

compscidude
Posts: 30
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

Re: The Trading Log

#344382

Postby compscidude » October 2nd, 2020, 9:38 am

It doesn’t follow. It has never been about timing, because we don’t pay for shares in minutes or hours, and we don’t need shares to live, the way we need food or air. We pay in £,€,$, and the issue is, and has always been, *price* not *timing*.

The *price* to buy at, is any amount you can, that is less than what you calculate is fair value.

If you personally don’t care what price you pay for something (at a point or as an average), then that’s great and I’m happy for you, but it’s not a universal solution to buying unneeded items in life, shouldn’t be pushed as such, and anyone watching the price of the FTSE100 from 1997 to today should know that. Anyone who patiently put money every month the last few years into a HYP with BP, RDSB, HSBC, BARC, LLOY, airlines, retail, etc etc really should have figured it out by now.

There are plenty of alternatives to shares or to the UK stockmarket. It’s like proselytising in religion: “we can’t know if there’s such a thing as a ‘god’, so, you should *believe right now* in a *certain very specific idea particular to the region I was born*.”

It’s a bait-and-switch on the word ‘god’ in this example, and it’s a bait and switch on the ‘what action to do when you can’t know the future’ problem in the original issue.

The other bait and switch is truth itself. “The best time to buy is today”. When I show with data that this claim is factually is not true and the strategy of ‘pay what you believe it is worth and will be available for’ can be more effective, people pretend like the word ‘best’ wasn’t in the sentence in the first place.

If people want to say “one popular approach is to always buy today, and get the average price so that highs and lows hopefully balance”, great! That’s a reasonable and low-effort strategy. It’s a very good strategy for many people.

But it’s not the *best* or *only* good strategy unless you redefine ‘best’ to be purely about time invested in decision-making instead of money/returns. ‘To keep things simple’ is a fine goal too; but you have to be explicit and actually say ‘best isn’t about money’. “not best *returns* but best in terms of time needed, which mattered to me”.

That word ‘best’ is the root of disagreement here, especially on those occasions when people speak as though they think they alone control the only possible interpretation of the word ‘best’.

If you don’t know “what will happen” and aren’t interested in building an idea of what might, and if you sincerely believe that to be the basis of your approach to investing, great - but the rational response is not to invest in UK shares as a response - it’s to purposefully invest your wealth in a very diverse range of things over a long time. Local cash, company bonds, gilts, housing, your own side business, your own education, helping your family and friends, your health, household items that save you money or make you happy, local shares, indices, foreign shares, foreign cash, gold, silver, etc.

Lastly, not knowing with *certainty* what will happen is a completely different issue to not knowing what will happen *at all*. If I step in a boxing ring with Mike Tyson, it’s not certain exactly what will happen, or when, but unless he has a heart attack or I have the most incredible luck, it’s pretty easy to figure out the broad shape of what probably comes next. The same is often true in investing. You can’t always know, but there are times when you can build a pretty good case that you’re going to be in the ring with Mike. Any other time except those risky times is probably a better idea. You can’t ever know when a risk will bite you in life, but you can often tell a risk is present and how bad it could potentially be.

Anyway it’s getting a bit off topic; If you’d like to pick a thread or forum you like to frequent which is more suited to this theme, tell me and I’ll be happy to follow you there.

JamesMuenchen
Lemon Slice
Posts: 824
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:05 pm
Has thanked: 85 times
Been thanked: 103 times

Re: The Trading Log

#344430

Postby JamesMuenchen » October 2nd, 2020, 11:06 am

compscidude wrote:The point of my last post was to re-raise a previous discussion and highlight that the investing thesis ‘the best time to buy is always today’ is misguided and makes a strong and unwise claim about what will happen in the future. Ie. that the shares you are interested in can never, ever again be lower in price in future, returns included. It is especially inappropriate for such a view to be presented rudely or hubristically during a market bubble.

I think this is a misrepresentation. The TTBIN thesis doesn't hold that shares never drop in value, just that we can't predict when, how much or why.

compscidude wrote:Anyway for a thesis about the entirety of the future to be shown wrong, a single counterexample is needed, which I provided with detail. I do not need to then personally decide to invest in some company at some example price in order for a point about price availability to be demonstrated correct.

No, you can't defeat a rule of thumb with one counterexample. Especially one which it turns out was only theoretical and in hindsight.

In fact, you admit you completely failed on all three when/how much/why predictions.

compscidude wrote:I believe that fundamentals matter (earnings, debt, revenue, margin, moat, sector etc) and that these should guide the price you are willing to pay.

Great. But share values crash when the fundamentals are considered to have changed for the worse.

You're referencing a crash where the market was expecting a massive shutdown of the global economy - if you were valuing shares at that point in time using historical "earnings, debt, revenue, margin, moat, sector etc" then you would be deluding yourself.

It's very hard not to go along with the market in such circumstances which is one of the big problems of trying to be a market-timer.

compscidude wrote:If I had bought MYI, I would have had a very nice and fast profit from it this year because I would have absolutely have sold it into the summer bubble for a quick 25% profit. But I decided just to leave it, and so I have no profit from earlier in the year.

I decided to "leave it" too, mostly, and am up over 100% YTD. The double-edged sword of not having tax-free investing in Germany.

compscidude wrote:In this crash, the £ was randomly absolutely crushed at market lows against most currencies (1.15/USD) which is a significant and unpredictable problem for £ based investors. I was looking at VHYL, EUE, VERX and of course MYI and BRK (which despite dropping in $ terms, jumped effectively back up 15% in £ terms due to instant £ devaluation). The rapid and deep and brief £ devaluation at exactly the point I wanted to trade in $ terms was *annoying* and so I’ve put some thought into how to mitigate the modern unpredictability of the £ currency in future.

Acknowledgment of such unpredictable problems is what underpins the TTBIN thesis.


compscidude wrote:Like coronavirus, random events happen and random events can matter. I was not alone in being surprised by the Fed intervention’s scale, I believe even Buffett was selling (airlines) rather than buying anything in Feb/Mar and has broadly maintained or grown his cash position over the year. So at least I have good company alongside me, if not good profits :-)

He was right to sell the airlines.

And he was right to hold on to Amazon.

And he was right to buy Amazon in 2019 and not wait for a crisis.

I am not sure you are really in the same good company.

compscidude wrote:Anyway - to get back to where I began, the point of my post was to illustrate that the idea ‘the best time to buy is always today’ is flawed. It makes a very strong claim about the future, namely that the market or particular shares, including returns, will never go down again. And that view is wrong.

As above, I think this is a misrepresentation.

All the same, I do also disagree that the time to buy is always now.

But rather than staying out of the market altogether, I would suggest a strategy of building a position over time.
On TMF-USA the prevailing method for a lump-sum LTBH seems to be 3 buys over 6 months.

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 5132
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 428 times
Been thanked: 2038 times

Re: The Trading Log

#344447

Postby tjh290633 » October 2nd, 2020, 11:28 am

compscidude wrote:The other bait and switch is truth itself. “The best time to buy is today”. When I show with data that this claim is factually is not true and the strategy of ‘pay what you believe it is worth and will be available for’ can be more effective, people pretend like the word ‘best’ wasn’t in the sentence in the first place.

You have contradicted yourself buy buying RDSB and BP. at the currently depressed prices.

The mantra refers to you wanting to buy a share and you have cash available. That share may be in a rising trend or a falling trend. Either way you cannot predict the future. Last Wednesday I was all set to trim my holding of Kingfisher, which had gone past my arbitrary weight limit. It fell back considerably the next morning, so the deal never happened. Then on Friday, William Hill was at the top of the midden, so I decided to trim that on Monday. It too fell back, but in the circumstances I elected to do the deal. Once I can see the whites of the possible bidders' eyes, then it may well all go, and I shall have to find a replacement. I shall not wait until the market has turned, fallen further, or stabilized. I shall do it that day, having chosen the replacement share or shares.

Everything is relative, which is why my criteria are not absolute. I base them on the values relative to my portfolio, so the Weight criterion is based on the median holding value, the Dividend Income criterion based on share of portfolio income, and so on.

You say that the mantra is untrue, and so it may be for what you have done, but you have inserted that word "Best", which is not in the mantra. It is "The time to buy is now".

TJH

JamesMuenchen
Lemon Slice
Posts: 824
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:05 pm
Has thanked: 85 times
Been thanked: 103 times

Re: The Trading Log

#344473

Postby JamesMuenchen » October 2nd, 2020, 12:09 pm

tjh290633 wrote:You say that the mantra is untrue, and so it may be for what you have done, but you have inserted that word "Best", which is not in the mantra. It is "The time to buy is now".

Even so. We can actually grant him that.

The day in question, cherry-picked by Compscidude, was actually the very "best" day in recent memory to buy!

Yet his method still didn't pull the trigger as his analysis led him to believe it wasn't good enough, or there could be better days and bigger crises.

Whereas, despite all the FUD, either version of TTBIN clearly would have bought (for someone who happened to be in the market to buy on that day).

StepOne
Lemon Slice
Posts: 643
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:17 am
Has thanked: 189 times
Been thanked: 174 times

Re: The Trading Log

#344893

Postby StepOne » October 3rd, 2020, 3:08 pm

compscidude wrote:If I had bought MYI, I would have had a very nice and fast profit from it this year because I would have absolutely have sold it into the summer bubble for a quick 25% profit.


Words fail me on the daftness of this statement. Congratulating yourself on banking a 25% profit from a trade that never happened doesn't sound like a good basis for fine tuning an investment strategy.

Nothing in this post makes me think that anyone can time the market, and for the majority of private investors, regular saving into cheap trackers for the long term is the best way to go.

StepOne

compscidude
Posts: 30
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

Re: The Trading Log

#347988

Postby compscidude » October 15th, 2020, 1:38 pm

Buying this afternoon:

BP. 6.25% portfolio (price at time of post just now: 203.7p)
Total (FP SA): 25% portfolio (price at time of post just now: 28.00 EUR) (forex rate today: 1.104)

compscidude
Posts: 30
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

Re: The Trading Log

#347993

Postby compscidude » October 15th, 2020, 1:44 pm

(previous post was edited a few seconds later to add the current forex rate)

compscidude
Posts: 30
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

Re: The Trading Log

#347998

Postby compscidude » October 15th, 2020, 2:06 pm

I've bought:

RDSB approx 7% more of portfolio - 916.5p (has been there for half an hour)

Thoughts on purchases:

Total - traditionally an oil company but has moved heavily into gas & renewables. Much of its oil has a low cost of extraction and they believe they can maintain the (almost 10%) dividend as long as oil remains $40 or above. Low debt, too. Likely to be supported by France, I think.

RDSB/BP - moving to renewables; already moved to gas. Can access lots of cheap debt just now.

All energy stocks: I think carbon taxes will push the 20-25% ish of world energy supply that is currently coal over to oil/gas for a long time before renewables can replace it. I see carbon taxes as bullish for oil and even more so for gas & renewables.

Brexit: looks worse and worse, catastrophic. Consequently, I think oil (both as a commodity and oil stocks as producers) is more likely to hold its value or improve its global value than the GBP (£) in the medium term (e.g. 2-3 years out). As for what could happen in today's talks? God knows.

Other thoughts:

I don't want to hold GBP (brexit), but EUR/USD are very expensive by historical norms. Some other currencies that are attractive for me are CAD/AUD but their stockmarkets are still a tad pricey and bloated with tar sands/coal, overpriced banks / housing stocks in both cases.

I'm kind of getting pushed towards energy because everything else looks like an even bigger medium-term shitshow right now.

In the UK: Although UK banks are historically cheap (looking at price only and not e.g. PER etc), they face headwinds of low interest rates (and BOE talking of negative), likely sharp rise in defaults as furlough ends, various big lawsuits, political behaviour from foreign states (HSBC & STAN being bullied by both China and the US just now). e.g. has been a threat of removing HSBC's access to US markets (as an act against china), and HSBC is being excluded from current Chinese debt placement operations (traditionally they would be a participant)

https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/09/hsbc ... ollar.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... since-2017

BARC/LLOY: more attractive but TBH I'm not a huge fan of banks in recessions any more ;)

Insurers: you can't make much off float in toppy world markets and 0% rates. And you can't easily raise charges in a recession, either.

Hospitality, Transport, Retail, Consumer discretionary : potentially huge mess / covid / recession.
Consumer non-discretionary (food etc): potentially brexit / GBP weakness mess.

Pharma: AZN is hilariously overpriced. GSK not so much, but not attractively priced either.

Cigs/booze: I don't invest in them.

BT: Nope. It's still a troubled pension fund that does a bit of landlines on the side.

Stuff that might catch my attention at a better price:

SAUS (aussie tracker), ABF (but has underperformed its sector), VOD, GSK, BRK, EUE/VHYL/VERX etfs. Maybe BAE (BA.L), maybe RR. Maybe utilities.

compscidude
Posts: 30
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

Re: The Trading Log

#347999

Postby compscidude » October 15th, 2020, 2:09 pm

current position:

32% RDSB
19% BP
25% TOTAL/FP
24% uninvested

I expect to trim back the RDSB and BP a little in coming months if there's a sudden rally in oil or crash in GBP, or if something like BRK gets cheap or the Aussie dollar crashes or something.

compscidude
Posts: 30
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

Re: The Trading Log

#348011

Postby compscidude » October 15th, 2020, 2:42 pm

To respond to various strange posts here:

---- JM ----

JM: "cherry-picked by Compscidude".

JM, the phrase 'cherry picked' in context of finance means to examine a long historical record then pick out certain points of history that happen to make the data look like it supports your thesis. To accuse someone of cherry picking in an argument is to accuse them of a form of dishonesty / misrepresentation.

What I did was to call out in real-time (ie. tradeable) an example of something that a previous poster had suggested wouldn't happen. That is not what cherry picking means. If you think it is, well, you will need to find someone who shares your own understanding of the English language to continue that debate with you.

JM: "you completely failed"

I'm absolutely certain I didn't commit to making any schedule of trades at any particular time or price (how can I? I have no idea what the economy or companies or GBP strength etc will look like in the future), so I'm baffled as to why you would write something that is both meaningless (in terms of my writing here) and rude (is this any way to talk to someone?).

Anyway, JM I think I will not be responding to your posts going forward unless you make them without unnecessary (and poorly-founded) attacks and rudeness.

---- stepone ---

comp: "I decided just to leave it, and so I have no profit from earlier in the year. "

StepOne: "Words fail me on the daftness of this statement. Congratulating yourself on banking a 25% profit..."

... speaks for itself really


--- TJH ----

Thank you for your reply. You wrote; "you have inserted that word "Best", which is not in the mantra. It is "The time to buy is now""

That sentence as you have written it has three problems.

1) It does not correspond to reality. Clearly, there are many times available to buy. An infinite number. Purposefully using the indefinite article ('the ...') for something with an infinite number of choices doesn't make sense. It's just not how the English language works. I insert the word 'best' and discussed how that could be interpreted because I presume that 'best' was the intended meaning.

But if you are genuinely asserting that "best" plays no role and you are claiming I *actually cannot* decide 'hmmm I will buy some more shares next week' or 'I will buy some more shares at some future time if the price is below X', then that seems quite strange, and I have to disagree with you, because, well, reality is real and the definite article doesn't apply.

2) We use the phrase 'the time to' ie. definite article with time, in sentences like: 'the time to celebrate new year is at 00:00:00 on January 1st each year'. Where there is a universally agreed understanding that there is no choice present; everyone in the country accepts this and acts accordingly. That is not the case with purchasing shares.

3) Generally, saying 'THE time' sounds a bit culty. Like you're not even interested in allowing a discussion about whether there are different times, (or more appropriately, whether the time of purchase has no direct relation to investment returns, unlike price of purchase). It reminds me of when I was religious as a kid and someone would ask 'are other gods real?' and the minister / leader would usually say e.g. 'No. Ours is THE god! Remember: Jesus said I am THE way, THE truth, and THE life! Not 'a', 'the'! etc etc'. But maybe that's just my own experience of religious views.

Do you agree that there are other times to buy besides "right away!" and other imho better reasons to buy (such as price, such as desire to move out of cash to something else)? Or do you maintain that there is only one option, to buy right now?

comp

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 5132
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 428 times
Been thanked: 2038 times

Re: The Trading Log

#348036

Postby tjh290633 » October 15th, 2020, 3:57 pm

compscidude wrote:--- TJH ----

Thank you for your reply. You wrote; "you have inserted that word "Best", which is not in the mantra. It is "The time to buy is now""

That sentence as you have written it has three problems.

1) It does not correspond to reality. Clearly, there are many times available to buy. An infinite number. Purposefully using the indefinite article ('the ...') for something with an infinite number of choices doesn't make sense. It's just not how the English language works. I insert the word 'best' and discussed how that could be interpreted because I presume that 'best' was the intended meaning.

But if you are genuinely asserting that "best" plays no role and you are claiming I *actually cannot* decide 'hmmm I will buy some more shares next week' or 'I will buy some more shares at some future time if the price is below X', then that seems quite strange, and I have to disagree with you, because, well, reality is real and the definite article doesn't apply.

2) We use the phrase 'the time to' ie. definite article with time, in sentences like: 'the time to celebrate new year is at 00:00:00 on January 1st each year'. Where there is a universally agreed understanding that there is no choice present; everyone in the country accepts this and acts accordingly. That is not the case with purchasing shares.

3) Generally, saying 'THE time' sounds a bit culty. Like you're not even interested in allowing a discussion about whether there are different times, (or more appropriately, whether the time of purchase has no direct relation to investment returns, unlike price of purchase). It reminds me of when I was religious as a kid and someone would ask 'are other gods real?' and the minister / leader would usually say e.g. 'No. Ours is THE god! Remember: Jesus said I am THE way, THE truth, and THE life! Not 'a', 'the'! etc etc'. But maybe that's just my own experience of religious views.

Do you agree that there are other times to buy besides "right away!" and other imho better reasons to buy (such as price, such as desire to move out of cash to something else)? Or do you maintain that there is only one option, to buy right now?

comp

I think that you are overanalysing the phrase. The expression implies that you have a share that you wish to buy and you have the funds available. You can dither about making the purchase, in which case the opportunity may vanish, or a better opportunity may arise, possibly another share.

An example of this in TMF times was the person who said he would buy VOD when it fell to 100p. It never did for more than a brief time, but it was a perfectly good buy at 111p, with a yield of 6.1% and I did indeed buy it at that price in August 2006.

I had the money, I wanted the share and I bought it, because the time was right.

If you want to do something else with the money, then do it, don't sit there quibbling about the meaning of life, or whatever.

TJH

Bagger46
Lemon Pip
Posts: 90
Joined: August 10th, 2019, 4:40 pm
Has thanked: 85 times
Been thanked: 108 times

Re: The Trading Log

#348047

Postby Bagger46 » October 15th, 2020, 4:45 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
compscidude wrote:--- TJH ----

Thank you for your reply. You wrote; "you have inserted that word "Best", which is not in the mantra. It is "The time to buy is now""

That sentence as you have written it has three problems.

1) It does not correspond to reality. Clearly, there are many times available to buy. An infinite number. Purposefully using the indefinite article ('the ...') for something with an infinite number of choices doesn't make sense. It's just not how the English language works. I insert the word 'best' and discussed how that could be interpreted because I presume that 'best' was the intended meaning.

But if you are genuinely asserting that "best" plays no role and you are claiming I *actually cannot* decide 'hmmm I will buy some more shares next week' or 'I will buy some more shares at some future time if the price is below X', then that seems quite strange, and I have to disagree with you, because, well, reality is real and the definite article doesn't apply.

2) We use the phrase 'the time to' ie. definite article with time, in sentences like: 'the time to celebrate new year is at 00:00:00 on January 1st each year'. Where there is a universally agreed understanding that there is no choice present; everyone in the country accepts this and acts accordingly. That is not the case with purchasing shares.

3) Generally, saying 'THE time' sounds a bit culty. Like you're not even interested in allowing a discussion about whether there are different times, (or more appropriately, whether the time of purchase has no direct relation to investment returns, unlike price of purchase). It reminds me of when I was religious as a kid and someone would ask 'are other gods real?' and the minister / leader would usually say e.g. 'No. Ours is THE god! Remember: Jesus said I am THE way, THE truth, and THE life! Not 'a', 'the'! etc etc'. But maybe that's just my own experience of religious views.

Do you agree that there are other times to buy besides "right away!" and other imho better reasons to buy (such as price, such as desire to move out of cash to something else)? Or do you maintain that there is only one option, to buy right now?

comp

I think that you are overanalysing the phrase. The expression implies that you have a share that you wish to buy and you have the funds available. You can dither about making the purchase, in which case the opportunity may vanish, or a better opportunity may arise, possibly another share.

An example of this in TMF times was the person who said he would buy VOD when it fell to 100p. It never did for more than a brief time, but it was a perfectly good buy at 111p, with a yield of 6.1% and I did indeed buy it at that price in August 2006.

I had the money, I wanted the share and I bought it, because the time was right.

If you want to do something else with the money, then do it, don't sit there quibbling about the meaning of life, or whatever.

TJH


VOD Year low: 92.76p

Itsallaguess
Lemon Half
Posts: 5700
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 2299 times
Been thanked: 4327 times

Re: The Trading Log

#348073

Postby Itsallaguess » October 15th, 2020, 6:08 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
compscidude wrote:
--- TJH ----

Thank you for your reply. You wrote; "you have inserted that word "Best", which is not in the mantra. It is "The time to buy is now""

That sentence as you have written it has three problems.

1) It does not correspond to reality. Clearly, there are many times available to buy. An infinite number. Purposefully using the indefinite article ('the ...') for something with an infinite number of choices doesn't make sense. It's just not how the English language works. I insert the word 'best' and discussed how that could be interpreted because I presume that 'best' was the intended meaning.

But if you are genuinely asserting that "best" plays no role and you are claiming I *actually cannot* decide 'hmmm I will buy some more shares next week' or 'I will buy some more shares at some future time if the price is below X', then that seems quite strange, and I have to disagree with you, because, well, reality is real and the definite article doesn't apply.

2) We use the phrase 'the time to' ie. definite article with time, in sentences like: 'the time to celebrate new year is at 00:00:00 on January 1st each year'. Where there is a universally agreed understanding that there is no choice present; everyone in the country accepts this and acts accordingly. That is not the case with purchasing shares.

3) Generally, saying 'THE time' sounds a bit culty. Like you're not even interested in allowing a discussion about whether there are different times, (or more appropriately, whether the time of purchase has no direct relation to investment returns, unlike price of purchase). It reminds me of when I was religious as a kid and someone would ask 'are other gods real?' and the minister / leader would usually say e.g. 'No. Ours is THE god! Remember: Jesus said I am THE way, THE truth, and THE life! Not 'a', 'the'! etc etc'. But maybe that's just my own experience of religious views.

Do you agree that there are other times to buy besides "right away!" and other imho better reasons to buy (such as price, such as desire to move out of cash to something else)? Or do you maintain that there is only one option, to buy right now?


I think that you are overanalysing the phrase.


I've got to be honest - I'd be looking to spend some time analysing the phrase "Don't put all your eggs in one basket' instead...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

JamesMuenchen
Lemon Slice
Posts: 824
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:05 pm
Has thanked: 85 times
Been thanked: 103 times

Re: The Trading Log

#348123

Postby JamesMuenchen » October 15th, 2020, 11:29 pm

compscidude wrote:To respond to various strange posts here:

---- JM ----

JM: "cherry-picked by Compscidude".

JM, the phrase 'cherry picked' in context of finance means to examine a long historical record then pick out certain points of history that happen to make the data look like it supports your thesis. To accuse someone of cherry picking in an argument is to accuse them of a form of dishonesty / misrepresentation.

What I did was to call out in real-time (ie. tradeable) an example of something that a previous poster had suggested wouldn't happen. That is not what cherry picking means. If you think it is, well, you will need to find someone who shares your own understanding of the English language to continue that debate with you.

JM: "you completely failed"

I'm absolutely certain I didn't commit to making any schedule of trades at any particular time or price (how can I? I have no idea what the economy or companies or GBP strength etc will look like in the future), so I'm baffled as to why you would write something that is both meaningless (in terms of my writing here) and rude (is this any way to talk to someone?).

Anyway, JM I think I will not be responding to your posts going forward unless you make them without unnecessary (and poorly-founded) attacks and rudeness.



Hi Comp

If you're going to be like that then perhaps you should post with a lighter touch yourself... and not use terms like "hubristic", "strange posts", etc.

You should also try quoting people properly, and not meaningless snippets.

You could also pick one user name and stick with it. I did scan up the thread but didn't twig that "csd2020" was you.

What I wrote to you was not simply "you completely failed" but "In fact, you admit you completely failed on all three when/how much/why predictions.". This is a true statement. It was a large part of what your post was about, and the difficulty of it was a large part of what my post was about. You've put (I guess) much time and effort into modelling a crash and when it came it wasn't deep enough for you - you thought it would go lower.
compscidude wrote:My buy point for several indices was about 5-10% lower than was reached eg 35-40% drop in broad indices *in GBP terms*, based of a study of past market crashes and the economic factors that drove them.

And you were "surprised" by this, that and the other... the Fed, currency effects, etc. You are already considering many, many more factors in this thread alone than the average PI can handle and yet there are still more to consider. And there always will be. You will never model reality entirely.

As for "What I did was to call out in real-time (ie. tradeable) an example of something that a previous poster had suggested wouldn't happen."
I'd like to know where that was suggested. The closest I can see is
StepOne wrote:The lesson I'm taking from this is don't try to time the markets.

and this is what you were quoting when you posted as "csd2020", so I'm pretty certain this is what you are referring to.

I have a lot of respect for StepOne , I know he's been around Fooldom since the early '00s and would bet my life that he wasn't suggesting that the largest one-week crash since 2008 couldn't happen.

I think you're creating strawmen, this was an earlier example
compscidude wrote:The point of my last post was to re-raise a previous discussion and highlight that the investing thesis ‘the best time to buy is always today’ is misguided and makes a strong and unwise claim about what will happen in the future. Ie. that the shares you are interested in can never, ever again be lower in price in future, returns included.

No-one has ever said that, not even the strongest TTBIN advocate. Please provide actual quotes if you think that I am wrong on this.

BellaHubby aready expressed it pretty well.
BellaHubby wrote: "The best time to buy is always today" is not about what will happen in the future. It's about not knowing what will happen in the future. Most people do not have the skills to read the future, or, perhaps more dangerously, think they do.

edit.... markets go up and down, but always go up over a sufficiently long period of time, so on average. buying today will win.


Return to “Trading my way to a million”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests