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The Trading Log

Honest reporting on shorter-term trading activity and ideas
StepOne
Lemon Slice
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Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:17 am
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Re: The Trading Log

#348853

Postby StepOne » October 19th, 2020, 9:33 am

compscidude wrote:current position:

32% RDSB
19% BP
25% TOTAL/FP
24% uninvested

I expect to trim back the RDSB and BP a little in coming months if there's a sudden rally in oil or crash in GBP, or if something like BRK gets cheap or the Aussie dollar crashes or something.


"... or something".

compscidude
Posts: 31
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

Re: The Trading Log

#352663

Postby compscidude » November 2nd, 2020, 1:29 pm

Moving roughly 6.25% of portfolio from RDSB to TOTAL SE (FP) at prevailing prices at time of this post.

RDSB : 966p

TOTAL : 26.82 EUR, forex: 1.110 GBPEUR


Reason for trade: RDSB has rallied up 10% further than Total in the last few days of trading, and on balance, I prefer Total as an energy company - less (net) debt, greater investment in renewables, potentially slightly less affected by Brexit (energy trading is a brexit issue, sadly).

redsturgeon
Lemon Half
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Re: The Trading Log

#352684

Postby redsturgeon » November 2nd, 2020, 2:06 pm

Moderator Message:
Please keep any posts on this thread (and elsewhere) on topic and avoid making personal remarks about the poster. Responses should be restricted to comment on the content of posts only. Any posts containing personal comments will be deleted

StepOne
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Re: The Trading Log

#353294

Postby StepOne » November 4th, 2020, 8:42 am

compscidude wrote:compscidude

SELL BRK-B.NYSE (Berkshire Hathaway) 20% of portfolio
SELL MYI.L (Murray International IT) 10% of portfolio

(Price at close, Friday 9th 2016).


Hi Comps,

BRK-B.NYSE up 40% since you sold.
MYI.L down about 15%, but including dividends would be slightly up.

Just wondered if you had a feel for why you got these trades wrong and whether you have changed your strategy?

Thanks,
StepOne

Itsallaguess
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Re: The Trading Log

#353949

Postby Itsallaguess » November 6th, 2020, 6:36 am

StepOne wrote:
compscidude wrote:
SELL BRK-B.NYSE (Berkshire Hathaway) 20% of portfolio
SELL MYI.L (Murray International IT) 10% of portfolio

(Price at close, Friday 9th 2016).


Hi Comps,

BRK-B.NYSE up 40% since you sold.
MYI.L down about 15%, but including dividends would be slightly up.

Just wondered if you had a feel for why you got these trades wrong and whether you have changed your strategy?


I think it's always good to revisit investment decisions StepOne, and I think it's also good to recognise peoples aptitudes in making them, and what their record in doing so looks like.

For instance, in this earlier Lemon Fool thread from 2016, Comps was claiming that December 2016 was a very risky time to be in the market, and every indicator he was looking at was screaming danger -

So I am ringing my 'danger' bell.

....

I am simply talking about the present danger of suffering from an almighty, investment-career-destroying crash, a risk which is higher than it has been since the year 2000, according to the Shiller PER understanding of overvaluation.

We are already looking now at an overvaluation of the US market which is worse than 2007. Do you remember 2007-2008?

Between 1920 and 1930 a lot of people made money. Then, they lost it, and it took twenty years to recover.

.....

If I was someone that was 100% committed to staying in the market no matter what, I would probably switch any US holdings I have into UK holdings, as the UK market seems less overvalued, given the weak pound and lack of historical records being set.


https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1631

I'm not sure if you've taken a look at how the US market has done since December 2016, and compared that to how the UK market has performed since that time?

Here's a couple of interesting charts from the time of those 2016 claims until close of play yesterday -

Image

So we can clearly see that anyone following that idea to switch out of US markets and into UK markets in December 2016 would not only have lost the chance to make DOW gains of 43% over that period (which includes the impact of a global pandemic, let's not forget...), but would also have suffered from a terrible compounding loss of 15.5% by moving over to the UK market at that time...

If we look at how the S&P did over the same period, we can see that it did even better than the DOW, and has made gains of over 55% since December 2016, so that would be a potential 71% loss caused by switching out of the S&P and into the FTSE at the time -

Image

I'm not quite sure that the ideas given at the time of that 'Ring Ring' thread could have been any more wrong in fact, and I'm happy to say that I was glad I completely ignored it at that time....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Itsallaguess
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Re: The Trading Log

#353955

Postby Itsallaguess » November 6th, 2020, 6:58 am

I did mean to provide a link to the source for the above charts, so here it is from Google Finance - https://www.google.co.uk/search?tbm=fin&q=dow&oq=dow

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

StepOne
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Re: The Trading Log

#354100

Postby StepOne » November 6th, 2020, 1:02 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:I'm not quite sure that the ideas given at the time of that 'Ring Ring' thread could have been any more wrong in fact, and I'm happy to say that I was glad I completely ignored it at that time....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


Yes, since May 2015 my SIPP which is almost entirely in US and EU trackers, is up about 80%, roughly 30% of which is contributions, so a 50% rise since the bell rang (more or less, I don't have a Dec 2016 figure for my SIPP value to hand). Achieved by doing absolutely nothing.

Of course, like many people I believe I can do better through timing and stock picking, so I have my 'trading' ISA portfolio, which is down 58% over the same period. Luckily this portfolio is a small (and getting smaller!) part of my retirement planning.

One day I hope I will learn the obvious lesson :D

Cheers,
StepOne


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