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Joey's O&G Trading Log

Honest reporting on shorter-term trading activity and ideas
joey
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Joey's O&G Trading Log

#431773

Postby joey » July 31st, 2021, 8:44 pm

This is a record of my trading in speculative oil & gas small caps.

(Note: I have one other position in O&G (TXP), but that is an actual investment and not a trade, and won't be commented on here).

My strategy is not to trade on fundamentals. That has far too high a probability of complete failure and permament loss of capital. Instead, trade on the sentiment -- and associated price movements -- that comes with speculative stocks when "the herd" arrived. Aim to build a position when certain signals align (e.g. post-placing churn) and dispose of a position pre-news.

I will post position details only once they are fully taken or fully disposed of.

joey
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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#431776

Postby joey » July 31st, 2021, 8:48 pm

Recent Disposals

Predator Oil & Gas (PRD)
Buy 845,000 @ avg. £0.0402, £34,000
Sold 845,000 @ avg. £0.0838, £70,892
Profit £36,892

Despite making a decent profit on this trade, I am annoyed at myself for not having sold out much sooner. The reason was that I violated one of my own rules and started to believe the story. Lesson learnt, again.

Current Positions

Advance Energy PLC (ADV)
Buy 945,000 @ avg. £0.0245, £23,162

Chariot Oil & Gas Ltd (CHAR)
Buy 400,000 @ avg. £0.0577, £23,081

Possible Future Positions

Predator Oil & Gas (PRD), again.

Recent shenniagans with a director selling, shortly before a placing made in the markets, do not instill confidence. However, the MOU-4 location is being touted as a drill for Q4 2021. Funding is yet to be confirmed. If funding is confirmed, or if a placing occurs to fund it, I may build a position.

Tower Resources (TRP)

Small market cap (~£8M) currently, which I like as it gives a lot of run room for speculators to punch the SP upwards. Funding news is awaited although there are warrants in play with retail buyers, which makes choosing an entry point more difficult than it would otherwise be (ie. with a placing).

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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#431778

Postby GoSeigen » July 31st, 2021, 10:09 pm

joey wrote:This is a record of my trading in speculative oil & gas small caps.

(Note: I have one other position in O&G (TXP), but that is an actual investment and not a trade, and won't be commented on here).

My strategy is not to trade on fundamentals. That has far too high a probability of complete failure and permament loss of capital. Instead, trade on the sentiment -- and associated price movements -- that comes with speculative stocks when "the herd" arrived. Aim to build a position when certain signals align (e.g. post-placing churn) and dispose of a position pre-news.

I will post position details only once they are fully taken or fully disposed of.


It's not obvious from the way this board is set up but the original purpose of this board was to demonstrate how £1000 could be turned into a million in 30 years. This requires an annual return of above 25% consistently for the 30 years. Will be interesting to see how you get on!

FWIW the originator of the idea gave up in a few short months IIRC...

GS

joey
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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#431782

Postby joey » August 1st, 2021, 12:15 am

GoSeigen wrote:It's not obvious from the way this board is set up but the original purpose of this board was to demonstrate how £1000 could be turned into a million in 30 years. This requires an annual return of above 25% consistently for the 30 years. Will be interesting to see how you get on!

Hi GS. I had no idea. However, given the drought of threads and posts in this forum, perhaps deviating from that initial premise is no bad thing.

FWIW the originator of the idea gave up in a few short months IIRC...


Understood. I shall report faithfully and hopefully it will be of interest to anyone who follows the thread, profit or loss.

BTW. When I hear “trading”, I usually roll my eyes and move on. I consider myself an investor, and in fact, my portfolio beyond what I will catalogue here, is actual investments. I’ve moved from OEICS + ETFs to investment trusts over the past year or so. My SIPP is essentially ITs now — heavily concentrated in higher risk ones, I admit, but nevertheless, they are investments. This thread is intended to document purely speculative trades. I haven’t elaborated much on the strategy, but it is one born of cynicism and viewing the AIM for what I believe it truly is; a vehicle for enriching insiders. I think I can hook into that and ride the waves. No TA, no tea leaves, no fundamentals: just acting like a parasite on the hubris that occurs when the “get rich quick” folk start buying in. Wish me luck.

joey
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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#433975

Postby joey » August 11th, 2021, 10:50 am

joey wrote:Possible Future Positions

Tower Resources (TRP)

Small market cap (~£8M) currently, which I like as it gives a lot of run room for speculators to punch the SP upwards. Funding news is awaited although there are warrants in play with retail buyers, which makes choosing an entry point more difficult than it would otherwise be (ie. with a placing).


A couple of news items from TRP this week: announcement of "head of terms" being agreed for a farm out, and today a placing at 0.425p raising £1.5M. I've not looked at the numbers in detail yet but I'm not sure if the placing covers the cash required to drill so it could indicate another placing is needed. The possible farm out covers a fair chunk of it ($15M) but not sure of the rest yet. Also, c.£540k from the placing goes back to the CEO as part of a loan repayment....

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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#438150

Postby 1nvest » August 29th, 2021, 12:06 am

GoSeigen wrote:It's not obvious from the way this board is set up but the original purpose of this board was to demonstrate how £1000 could be turned into a million in 30 years. This requires an annual return of above 25% consistently for the 30 years.

HedgeFundie data since 2010 with £ adjustment is running at over 30% annualised.

Concept is exploit low interest rates (borrowing costs) to leverage stock, with 3x long dated treasuries to kill the stock downside volatility.

Throwing in some bit coins would have uplifted to the CAGR to 48% since 2016.

Generally OK for sandboxing, perhaps no more than 5% allocation of a established/large portfolio. Or if young and you're portfolio is so little anyway that the total loss wouldn't be the end of the world either.


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