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The Trading Log

Honest reporting on shorter-term trading activity and ideas
compscidude
Lemon Pip
Posts: 85
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm
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Re: The Trading Log

#464599

Postby compscidude » December 9th, 2021, 6:38 pm

Sold 60% USA bonds to GBP at 1.32 for a few % profit in GBP terms, 0% profit in USD terms. Not sure this is a good idea but I expect the UK to manage better than EU/USA with omicron via having had many infections and a high level of vaccinations & boosters. Hoping to see GBP back up at 1.35-1.37 in the next few weeks as omicron doubles every 2-3 days. I guess central bank behaviour will have a big effect too. I see this as a 60-40 roll of the dice.

Put 20% of portfolio into Verizon today at $50.00 with GBP 1.32 (current price/rate). Buffett was happy to buy $8bn of this stock at $60, I suppose $50 should be even better. Should be covid-proof, war-proof, inflation-proof, etc. PER <10, market leader, 15 year record of raising the dividend, >5% yield, sitting near 5 year lows, (and *at* 5 year lows if you adjust for inflation), what's not to like?

Sold the last bit of Intel earlier in the week when the price spiked for a bit of profit, but didn't have time to note it here. For tracking purposes the sale is at today's average price of $51.0, GBP 1.32, £38.63. Hoping to buy this back around $48.x, where it often was over the last month, hopefully with a stronger pound too. This is tinkering I suppose but so be it. Took a small dividend of $0.30 during the period it was held too but forex broker fees wiped this out.

Current portfolio:

80% cash (£)

20% verizon @ $50.00 / £37.88

Hoping to buy Intel at $48ish if it goes there.

Hoping to buy BRK at $250ish if it goes there.

Looked at a screener for large US companies with low PERs and good reputation & reasonable prospects. Toyota? Intel? Verizon? A few banks? There's hardly anything else.

Hope everyone is doing well and avoiding the rona. I still believe this market is ripe for a very big correction. CAPE near 40, rona about to wreck the economy again, inflation high and central banks getting worried as an inflation mindset begins to set in... the market could drop 50% and still be relatively expensive by historical standards.

comp

compscidude
Lemon Pip
Posts: 85
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm
Has thanked: 9 times
Been thanked: 27 times

Re: The Trading Log

#470199

Postby compscidude » January 4th, 2022, 3:00 pm

Happy new year everyone.

GBP has recovered a bit as hoped. GBPEUR is currently almost exactly at a 5 year high.

For all the Euro's faults, at least Boris & Chum(p)s aren't running Europe, it has that going for it.

Moving all £ cash into IBGS (1-3 year euro treasuries) @ £119.17. Price: GBPEUR is 1.1984. IBGS is £119.12-119.17 bid/offer.

Current portfolio:

80% euro treasuries IBGS.
20% verizon VZ.


General concerns:

- SP500 CAPE10 is at 40.4 which is absolutely horrifying considering that it includes an inflationary adjustment for the last year.

- Sentiment is bubble-tastic (Tesla, Apple etc). Fear Of Missing Out, Fear Of Being Left Behind, There Is No Alternative, etc are all in play.

- moderately high chance of Russia invading Ukraine (maybe not a good time to hold BP, with it's exposure to Russian assets)

- low possibility of China invading Taiwan

- effects of high energy prices, inflation, narrowing margins due to logistics, wages, input costs going up etc.

- considering number of worldwide infections by omicron this month is similar to the total infections of the last two years, plus increasingly able to infect other mammal species, I would expect 3-5 new major covid variants of concern (VoC not VoI) to be discovered in the next 1-3 months.

- Evergrande was suddenly delisted yesterday. It has more debt than any other company in the world. Other Chinese property companies may follow.

- black swans? earthquakes, tsunamis, meteors, unexpected wars, countries collapsing (Turkey?), new diseases, unexpected investment in Chinese property/bonds being revealed (Tether, I'm looking at you), collapse of sentiment in memes, spacs, crypto, ...

- Bit worrying the unexpected public statement about 'let's not be using nukes' today by various large countries.

Wishing everyone a prosperous 2022.

comp


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