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Joey's O&G Trading Log

Honest reporting on shorter-term trading activity and ideas
joey
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Joey's O&G Trading Log

#431773

Postby joey » July 31st, 2021, 8:44 pm

This is a record of my trading in speculative oil & gas small caps.

(Note: I have one other position in O&G (TXP), but that is an actual investment and not a trade, and won't be commented on here).

My strategy is not to trade on fundamentals. That has far too high a probability of complete failure and permament loss of capital. Instead, trade on the sentiment -- and associated price movements -- that comes with speculative stocks when "the herd" arrived. Aim to build a position when certain signals align (e.g. post-placing churn) and dispose of a position pre-news.

I will post position details only once they are fully taken or fully disposed of.

joey
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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#431776

Postby joey » July 31st, 2021, 8:48 pm

Recent Disposals

Predator Oil & Gas (PRD)
Buy 845,000 @ avg. £0.0402, £34,000
Sold 845,000 @ avg. £0.0838, £70,892
Profit £36,892

Despite making a decent profit on this trade, I am annoyed at myself for not having sold out much sooner. The reason was that I violated one of my own rules and started to believe the story. Lesson learnt, again.

Current Positions

Advance Energy PLC (ADV)
Buy 945,000 @ avg. £0.0245, £23,162

Chariot Oil & Gas Ltd (CHAR)
Buy 400,000 @ avg. £0.0577, £23,081

Possible Future Positions

Predator Oil & Gas (PRD), again.

Recent shenniagans with a director selling, shortly before a placing made in the markets, do not instill confidence. However, the MOU-4 location is being touted as a drill for Q4 2021. Funding is yet to be confirmed. If funding is confirmed, or if a placing occurs to fund it, I may build a position.

Tower Resources (TRP)

Small market cap (~£8M) currently, which I like as it gives a lot of run room for speculators to punch the SP upwards. Funding news is awaited although there are warrants in play with retail buyers, which makes choosing an entry point more difficult than it would otherwise be (ie. with a placing).

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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#431778

Postby GoSeigen » July 31st, 2021, 10:09 pm

joey wrote:This is a record of my trading in speculative oil & gas small caps.

(Note: I have one other position in O&G (TXP), but that is an actual investment and not a trade, and won't be commented on here).

My strategy is not to trade on fundamentals. That has far too high a probability of complete failure and permament loss of capital. Instead, trade on the sentiment -- and associated price movements -- that comes with speculative stocks when "the herd" arrived. Aim to build a position when certain signals align (e.g. post-placing churn) and dispose of a position pre-news.

I will post position details only once they are fully taken or fully disposed of.


It's not obvious from the way this board is set up but the original purpose of this board was to demonstrate how £1000 could be turned into a million in 30 years. This requires an annual return of above 25% consistently for the 30 years. Will be interesting to see how you get on!

FWIW the originator of the idea gave up in a few short months IIRC...

GS

joey
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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#431782

Postby joey » August 1st, 2021, 12:15 am

GoSeigen wrote:It's not obvious from the way this board is set up but the original purpose of this board was to demonstrate how £1000 could be turned into a million in 30 years. This requires an annual return of above 25% consistently for the 30 years. Will be interesting to see how you get on!

Hi GS. I had no idea. However, given the drought of threads and posts in this forum, perhaps deviating from that initial premise is no bad thing.

FWIW the originator of the idea gave up in a few short months IIRC...


Understood. I shall report faithfully and hopefully it will be of interest to anyone who follows the thread, profit or loss.

BTW. When I hear “trading”, I usually roll my eyes and move on. I consider myself an investor, and in fact, my portfolio beyond what I will catalogue here, is actual investments. I’ve moved from OEICS + ETFs to investment trusts over the past year or so. My SIPP is essentially ITs now — heavily concentrated in higher risk ones, I admit, but nevertheless, they are investments. This thread is intended to document purely speculative trades. I haven’t elaborated much on the strategy, but it is one born of cynicism and viewing the AIM for what I believe it truly is; a vehicle for enriching insiders. I think I can hook into that and ride the waves. No TA, no tea leaves, no fundamentals: just acting like a parasite on the hubris that occurs when the “get rich quick” folk start buying in. Wish me luck.

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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#433975

Postby joey » August 11th, 2021, 10:50 am

joey wrote:Possible Future Positions

Tower Resources (TRP)

Small market cap (~£8M) currently, which I like as it gives a lot of run room for speculators to punch the SP upwards. Funding news is awaited although there are warrants in play with retail buyers, which makes choosing an entry point more difficult than it would otherwise be (ie. with a placing).


A couple of news items from TRP this week: announcement of "head of terms" being agreed for a farm out, and today a placing at 0.425p raising £1.5M. I've not looked at the numbers in detail yet but I'm not sure if the placing covers the cash required to drill so it could indicate another placing is needed. The possible farm out covers a fair chunk of it ($15M) but not sure of the rest yet. Also, c.£540k from the placing goes back to the CEO as part of a loan repayment....

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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#438150

Postby 1nvest » August 29th, 2021, 12:06 am

GoSeigen wrote:It's not obvious from the way this board is set up but the original purpose of this board was to demonstrate how £1000 could be turned into a million in 30 years. This requires an annual return of above 25% consistently for the 30 years.

HedgeFundie data since 2010 with £ adjustment is running at over 30% annualised.

Concept is exploit low interest rates (borrowing costs) to leverage stock, with 3x long dated treasuries to kill the stock downside volatility.

Throwing in some bit coins would have uplifted to the CAGR to 48% since 2016.

Generally OK for sandboxing, perhaps no more than 5% allocation of a established/large portfolio. Or if young and you're portfolio is so little anyway that the total loss wouldn't be the end of the world either.

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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#454699

Postby compscidude » November 1st, 2021, 7:22 am

It's not obvious from the way this board is set up but the original purpose of this board was to demonstrate how £1000 could be turned into a million in 30 years.


It's also not obvious that the original separate 'trading log' board was merged here some time ago.

The site does not have a lot of visitors, so it's probably not a bad thing for people to report trades and thoughts, more productive and on-topic for finance than 75% of the posts here :-)

Would be happy to see the 'trading log' board reinstated to avoid any confusion and to avoid mere trade-loggers causing chaos amongst the legions of soon-to-be-millionaires.

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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#457858

Postby joey » November 13th, 2021, 7:57 pm

Recent Disposals

Advance Energy PLC (ADV)
Buy 945,000 @ avg. £0.02451, £23,162
Sell 945,000 @ avg. £0.04118, £38,912
Profit £15,684, 67.7% return for a duration of 3 months 29 days.

I sold ADV this week just gone. Spud is imminent (mid-to-end of November) and I wasn't sure how much further the price has to go. I had to exit in five tranches as liquidity wasn't great and I couldn't get a live quote a lot of the time. In hindsight it might have been better to use a limit order(s) rather than trying to get a market price. The learning is to exit trades when there is decent liquidity in the market (e.g. there was a recent news article that tipped ADV. Probably it would have been better to exit that day. Price was better then too :) )

I decided to move £11,500 of the profit here out of my "speculative" pot and into "investment".

Current Positions

Cash
£27,516

Chariot Oil & Gas Ltd (CHAR)
400,000 @ avg. £0.0577, £23,081 (current value c.£31,920)

Possible Future Positions

Predator Oil & Gas (PRD), Tower Resources (TRP), Baron Oil (BOIL), Empyrean Energy (EME), and Deltic Energy (DELT).

PRD is the one I know best. They are planning to drill two or three wells early next year and have said they are looking to fund it with a joint venture. A recent RNS indicated the drilling programme was "fully-funded" but it seemed a bit confusing to me as I wasn't sure if it was in reference to the 2022 programme or the one conducted earlier this year. Certainly my guesstimates of their cash position would indicate they need either a JV, a placing, or maybe both. If they do a placing that isn't huge, and they confirm the drill(s) are fully funded, I'll look to take a position again there.

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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#468035

Postby joey » December 22nd, 2021, 1:27 pm

Recent Disposals

Chariot Oil & Gas Ltd (CHAR)
Buy 400,000 @ avg. £0.0577, £23,081
Sell 400,000 @ avg. £0.07503, £30,012
Profit £6,931, 25.2% return for a duration of 4 months 22 days

I sold CHAR in five trades between 12/11 and 13/12. It turns out there was a placing being arranged during the first week of December. It was announced to the market on 02/12. The placing was at a discounted price (of course) of 7p. There was also an open offer for existing holders with a ratio of 30-1, also at 7p. Those open offer shares come to market tomorrow. This combination of placing and open offer has obviously depressed the price and, IMV, it limits the potential for a share price run up to spud. I have actually taken my entitlement of open offer shares (10,000) -- its free money, assuming the price remains above 7p, for not much effort. I may hang on to them through to results for fun.

There is a CHAR thread that Pro is maintaining for anyone interested viewtopic.php?f=16&t=32532
Presumably he thinks the ramping will in fact yield an opportunity between now and results days (c.30 days) ...

Current Positions

Cash
£57,000

Possible Future Positions

Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC (PRD)

A year-end update was RNS'd on 15/12. No deal has been forthcoming with regards to a joint venture partner to fund the drilling of any new wells. The plan had been to drill two wells back-to-back in Q1, and then test MOU-1 plus the two new wells as part of the same programme, presumably using the same kit; supposedly this was about cost reduction. I always found that to be suspect, or at least the stated reason being suspect, as the lack of results from a MOU-1 test surely make it harder to get funding from a partner. This has proven so far to be the case. I imagine the only route to funding will be a placing, or a combination of a placing with maybe a credit loan note (which has been used previously). I think there is a big retail following so maybe a placing would be adequate to get funds raised. Presumably we'll find out in the new year.

Empyrean Energy PLC (EME)

A placing plus CLN was announced to the market on 16/12. The placing was at 6p and the CLN becomes convertible at 8p. The monies raised are enough to fund the imminent drill of the Jade prospect which sits offshore of China. Supposedly the drill is happening in "late December" and we are here but without announcements of mobilisation; it seems unlikely it'll happen in 2021. My understanding is that offshore weather conditions can play a big part in if the drill will even happen.

Given that this placing has happened so close to the (supposed) drill date, plus the presence of the CLN at 8p, it seems to me that any run up of share price before and during spud is severely limited. Possibly a position could be taken at 6p/6.3p in the open market, but the upside is obviously limited to c.25%. It doesn't make for a great risk-to-reward ratio.

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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#475725

Postby joey » January 24th, 2022, 12:26 pm

Current Positions

I removed a fair chunk of cash from this pot. The intention had been to let it accumulate and hit that million :) but reality got in the way. Cash size was reduced to c.£33,500

Deltic Energy PLC (DELT)

Buy 1,400,000 @ avg. £0.02307 £32,295 (four trades between 04/01 and 24/01)

Deltic is a bit different from the other companies mentioned here. They have various licences via joint venture in the North Sea. Seismic is being conducted etc. However, the reason for buying now is that there is a drill being undertaken on licence P2252 (Pensacola) by Shell, expected to happen in Q2, in which DELT owns a 30% interest. The drill is fully funded.

Cash

£1,130

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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#491512

Postby joey » April 4th, 2022, 2:00 pm

Current Positions

(New) Aminex PLC (AEX)
Buy 1,250,000 @ avg. £0.008415 £10,516

Bought on 01/04 after the announcement of a placing at 0.75p. Spud of the Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) well is expected Q3 or Q4. Currently waiting on 3D seismic results. Might be a bit early on this one as the placing shares will no doubt churn for a bit. But there was good momentum before the placing so maybe will be quicker than some expect.

Deltic Energy PLC (DELT)
1,400,000 @ avg. £0.02307 £32,295 (current value £41,300)

Cash
£0

Possible Future Positions

Europa Oil & Gas (EOG), Scirocco Energy (SCIR).

EOG had a placing @1.8p in early March and the shares came to market in late March. If they come down to that level than I may take a chunk. The funds will be used for a 25% farm-in to the Serenity appraisal well (North Sea) expected to drill later this year in the summer. i3Energy are the majority holder of Serentiy.

SCIR has a 25% interest in the Ruvuma project where AEX are expected to spud CH-1. But, SCIR are not funded. That would mean a placing most likely... if that happens, may look to take a position afterward. Positives are the small market cap (c.£4.4m today). Negatives are the fractional penny price and liquidity.

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Re: Joey's O&G Trading Log

#492481

Postby joey » April 7th, 2022, 1:17 pm

Current Positions

(New) Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd (ECO)
33,600 @ avg. £0.30, £10,088

A placing was done 05/04/2022 @ 30p/share, 64 million shares, $25.5M raised. Officially coming to market on the 11th. As per the company "...net proceeds of the Equity Fundraise are intended to be used primarily to fund Eco's share of the drilling of the Gazania-1 well on Block 2B offshore South Africa". Cost of drill is $23M and cash position at EOY 2021 was $5.8M. That makes them fully funded (as fully as you can be on AIM, at least).

Drilling of Gazania-1 is slated for Q3/Q4 this year. P50 case net to ECO, who have a 50% share in the block, is 246MMbbls and 38BCF gas.

I could be a bit early again on this one. Churn will no doubt occur. I missed getting in to EOG because I was waiting for the placing price to arrive in the market but it didn't. Still learning about best entry... if you wait too long it might never arrive. Hence being happy with getting the placing price.

Aminex PLC (AEX)
1,250,000 @ avg. £0.008415, £10,516

Deltic Energy PLC (DELT)
1,400,000 @ avg. £0.02307, £32,295

Cash
£0


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