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It gets even wilder [merged with GME/wsb/etc]

Honest reporting on shorter-term trading activity and ideas
Darka
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Re: Thoughts on the meaning of WSB?

#382369

Postby Darka » January 31st, 2021, 9:44 am

Gilgongo wrote:but its stuff like this that makes me think reliance on the markets, of any kind really, for retirement is a bad and dangerous thing.


The problem is, what other options are there as DB pensions don't exist for the majority of private sector workers anymore.

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Re: Thoughts on the meaning of WSB?

#382371

Postby GrahamPlatt » January 31st, 2021, 9:47 am

World Super Bike

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Re: Thoughts on the meaning of WSB?

#382387

Postby JohnW » January 31st, 2021, 10:47 am

We can lament the move from DB to DC pensions, and should in view of the widespread financial illiteracy that the community has, pitted against an industry set up to take a fat slice as the money moves into and out of investments and people's pay packets/pockets.
But are we facing any new problem with stock market gyrations, short selling and bets? Stock market values have always represented the inherent value of the securities combined with their premium or discount which results from investor emotion, 'group think', 'fear of missing out', plausible rumours etc.
As a retirement investor with a diversified portfolio, suitably set up for your needs, addressing known risks (inflation, longevity, interest rate changes, market volatility etc) I don't think you have to worry in the way you outline. The trick is to foresee the risks, and market volatility is a well-known one, and invest accordingly.

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Re: Thoughts on the meaning of WSB?

#382389

Postby Itsallaguess » January 31st, 2021, 10:49 am

Wicked Stonks Buyer....

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Re: Thoughts on the meaning of WSB?

#382390

Postby Gilgongo » January 31st, 2021, 10:50 am

Sorry, I should have clarified I was talking about West Suffolk Biscuits.

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Re: It gets even wilder [merged with GME/wsb/etc]

#382395

Postby dspp » January 31st, 2021, 11:09 am

The mainstream media's description of GME are getting more sophisticated
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... co-reveals

One thing that is not being discussed much is that the shorts are keen that the flash spike turns into a flash crash, whilst the longs are keen to hold it up for at least the 13-days required for full short disclosure. I don't think the fat lady has sung yet even if there are already quite a few badly damaged bodies lying around the stage waving white flags (Melvin Capital, Citron). I think there is still time for this to tip either way.

regards, dspp

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Re: It gets even wilder [merged with GME/wsb/etc]

#382407

Postby Itsallaguess » January 31st, 2021, 11:41 am

dspp wrote:
I think there is still time for this to tip either way.


Like many others, I've been following this story with wide-eyed interest.

Is there a risk to the Reddit/WSB side of things in terms of the authorities being able to point to an 'organised' market manipulation process going on, and does that give the authorities a way to nip these types of 'bulletin-board-led' movements in the bud at all?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Thoughts on the meaning of WSB?

#382428

Postby anon155742 » January 31st, 2021, 1:05 pm

Young people, under the age of 40, have no security in life like their parents have had. House prices are extremely high, job security low, wages low, immigration high, pensions minimal, cost of education high, divorce high, childlessness high etc

There are many with nothing to lose so if they can attack the stock market, why not?

Best case scenario it will make them wealthier at the expense of the already wealthy.

Worst case scenario it will (has?) exposed more of the population to the corruption of the financial elites

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Re: Thoughts on the meaning of WSB?

#382467

Postby dealtn » January 31st, 2021, 3:40 pm

anon155742 wrote:Young people, under the age of 40, have no security in life like their parents have had. House prices are extremely high, job security low, wages low, immigration high, pensions minimal, cost of education high, divorce high, childlessness high etc



That (our) generation, have plenty of options, not available to their parents, or grandparents though.

My mum had to stop working when she married. That wasn't unusual! Her dad secured a period of peace that has proved remarkably lengthy. Neither generation had a minimum wage, nor the list of benefits now available to the current working generation.

Many industries operated (quite legally) on being picked in the morning. If you weren't one of the lucky ones you didn't get paid, and didn't eat.

It wasn't just food that was difficult to source in such circumstances. So was coal, or something to heat your (non-insulated, no double glazed) home with. Sometimes you would have to share that home with another family (and hoped they worked/bought coal).

Of course, those conditions were hard for some, and could lead to ill health. But no NHS, and this was before many of the drugs we took for granted existed. Childhood illnesses weren't fun. Life expectancy was (much) lower. Family members died, and that was considered normal. Childlessness was high for some, those that lost their only child to death, rather than not being able to conceive.

Many jobs came with no pension, unlike today where most jobs you have to opt-out of a pension if you don't want one.

Education cost was also high. If you chose to stay at school beyond the age of 14 you were denying the family an income.

Divorce was difficult. You often had to stay with the perpetrator of physical and mental punishment, to you and your children.

Today's generation face all kinds of difficulties. It wasn't a walk in the park for those that came before them either. Sometimes perspective helps.

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Re: Thoughts on the meaning of WSB?

#382486

Postby Gilgongo » January 31st, 2021, 4:38 pm

"That (our) generation, have plenty of options, not available to their parents, or grandparents though."


Well yes, but what has that got to do with anything? The injustices of the past don't justify those of the present. There is (or at least should be!) a concept of human progress, isn't there? Otherwise, we may as well just give up.

Really. What kind of logic is this to be coming out with? :shock:

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Re: It gets even wilder [merged with GME/wsb/etc]

#382490

Postby dspp » January 31st, 2021, 5:03 pm

You may find these "Anatomy Of A Short Attack" papers interesting,

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets ... dicted_in/

https://seekingalpha-com.cdn.ampproject ... ort-attack

http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/Co ... Stock.html

The top one (reddit) links through to the others and is a readable summary, abstract is as follows,

"Abusive shorting are not random acts of a renegade hedge funds, but rather a coordinated business plan that is carried out by a collusive consortium of hedge funds and prime brokers, with help from their friends at the DTC and major clearinghouses. Potential target companies are identified, analyzed and prioritized. The attack is planned to its most minute detail."

etc, YMMV

- dspp

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Re: It gets even wilder [merged with GME/wsb/etc]

#382500

Postby GoSeigen » January 31st, 2021, 5:36 pm

dspp wrote:You may find these "Anatomy Of A Short Attack" papers interesting,

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets ... dicted_in/

https://seekingalpha-com.cdn.ampproject ... ort-attack

http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/Co ... Stock.html

The top one (reddit) links through to the others and is a readable summary, abstract is as follows,

"Abusive shorting are not random acts of a renegade hedge funds, but rather a coordinated business plan that is carried out by a collusive consortium of hedge funds and prime brokers, with help from their friends at the DTC and major clearinghouses. Potential target companies are identified, analyzed and prioritized. The attack is planned to its most minute detail."

etc, YMMV

- dspp

What sort of axe do you have to grind here?

GS

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Re: Thoughts on the meaning of WSB?

#382501

Postby dealtn » January 31st, 2021, 5:41 pm

Gilgongo wrote:"That (our) generation, have plenty of options, not available to their parents, or grandparents though."


Well yes, but what has that got to do with anything? The injustices of the past don't justify those of the present. There is (or at least should be!) a concept of human progress, isn't there? Otherwise, we may as well just give up.

Really. What kind of logic is this to be coming out with? :shock:


Of course there is plenty of progress, as there should be.

I was replying to someone who appears to be claiming there hasn't been, with the current generation worse off than previous ones. That is precisely logical.

The implication seems to be the current generation is facing "new stuff". This "new stuff" is worse than before. Therefore it is right/ok for the sufferers of this "new stuff" to take it out on previous generations (who they blame for this new stuff).

Let me know if I interpreted this wrongly.

That same logic points out previous generations also had "new stuff" to deal with. Depending on your view they either "didn't" take it out on previous generations, in which case why is this generation different? Or they did, but in different ways, in which case what's the big story here?

Take your pick.

Personally, as someone closer in age to the current 40 year olds, and with children younger than those acting in the current fashion of intergenerational conflict, my view is today's downtrodden and age disadvantaged aren't suffering as much as previous "youngsters" did.

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Re: It gets even wilder [merged with GME/wsb/etc]

#382515

Postby PrincessB » January 31st, 2021, 6:30 pm

I am more than happy to be told off for my simple view of this.

As I understand it;

The large investors targeted a company which was about to become the next 'Blockbuster' by going short.

The many others using the power of the internet pumped in money and caused a 'short squeeze' to such a degree than the bigger boys had to unload their positions at a loss and that drove the share price into overdrive.

I'm fine with that.

Reddit is a funny old site. The user interface is awful and it continually fires up interesting chat areas you might not have spotted. Before all of this started, I was aware of the board, had a look and did not bother becoming a member as it seemed to be ADVDN x 10.

I have no position in GameStop or any other hyped stock from that SubReddit group.

They did well, and I have no resentment or issue with the individuals who have made a lot of money. Well done.

My issue is that we have a company that was going to go under for clearly identified reasons which is now worth on paper a lot. My Reddit feed is highlighting some rather good videos that are saying 'Hold, Hold, Hold' - $1,000 next target.

I feel for those who follow this advice. The company is not viable and this has turned from a 'Short Squeeze' into a Ponzi scheme.

A lot of people are the lower end are going to end up losing a lot of money while the smart boys are 'shouting hold' they are selling and as momentum builds the inexperienced will be keeping the price high until is all goes horribly wrong for them.

This has likely been said before and better, but these threads get a bit long. This has been bothering me for a few days and I needed to say it.

Thank you.

B.

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Re: Thoughts on the meaning of WSB?

#382516

Postby TUK020 » January 31st, 2021, 6:31 pm

To some extent the discussion about "do the youngsters of today have it harder/easier than the previous generation" is missing the point.

People graduating today start with many advantages that earlier generations did not have. However, if we were to try and work out a system of destroying engagement in society, we would find it tough to create a system more insidiously effective than constricting the supply of property so that young people are condemned to spend the vast proportion of their income on substandard accommodation, and lose hope of ever becoming an owner. Add a gig economy, and they have little incentive to support the status quo. Radical change sounds attractive. Vote for Corbyn (or equivalent)? why not?

Our current system of planning controls ensures that we reserve most prime real estate for subsidised farming - drive round the M25 and observe how you spend nearly all of the journey driving through fields of monoculture. It's not beautiful, it is not nature, it is not economically productive, and it is hurting us.

This system is rigged for the 'haves' at the expense of the 'have nots'. It is short sighted, and impoverishes us all. And one day it will explode.

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Re: It gets even wilder [merged with GME/wsb/etc]

#382517

Postby dspp » January 31st, 2021, 6:34 pm

GoSeigen wrote:
dspp wrote:You may find these "Anatomy Of A Short Attack" papers interesting,

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets ... dicted_in/

https://seekingalpha-com.cdn.ampproject ... ort-attack

http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/Co ... Stock.html

The top one (reddit) links through to the others and is a readable summary, abstract is as follows,

"Abusive shorting are not random acts of a renegade hedge funds, but rather a coordinated business plan that is carried out by a collusive consortium of hedge funds and prime brokers, with help from their friends at the DTC and major clearinghouses. Potential target companies are identified, analyzed and prioritized. The attack is planned to its most minute detail."

etc, YMMV

- dspp

What sort of axe do you have to grind here?

GS


None in particular, I'm just interested in what is going on and the longer term background behind it all, and what implications it might have for the future. Half of me wonders whether the shorts' standard ripostes of "nothing to see here, capitalism & the free market doing its thing, move along" is correct. The other half rather suspects there is / has been (equity) market abuse by the shorters going on in broad daylight for a long time. (Clearly commodities and forex markets have also had their moments over the years, but I am not so interested in them). One can make valid arguments both ways. Even if there is nothing untoward going on here, the cries of "something must be done" which are originating from both camps may result in changes that in turn may affect all of us.

regards, dspp

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Re: It gets even wilder [merged with GME/wsb/etc]

#382519

Postby dspp » January 31st, 2021, 6:38 pm

PrincessB wrote:I am more than happy to be told off for my simple view of this.

As I understand it;

The large investors targeted a company which was about to become the next 'Blockbuster' by going short.

The many others using the power of the internet pumped in money and caused a 'short squeeze' to such a degree than the bigger boys had to unload their positions at a loss and that drove the share price into overdrive.

I'm fine with that.

Reddit is a funny old site. The user interface is awful and it continually fires up interesting chat areas you might not have spotted. Before all of this started, I was aware of the board, had a look and did not bother becoming a member as it seemed to be ADVDN x 10.

I have no position in GameStop or any other hyped stock from that SubReddit group.

They did well, and I have no resentment or issue with the individuals who have made a lot of money. Well done.

My issue is that we have a company that was going to go under for clearly identified reasons which is now worth on paper a lot. My Reddit feed is highlighting some rather good videos that are saying 'Hold, Hold, Hold' - $1,000 next target.

I feel for those who follow this advice. The company is not viable and this has turned from a 'Short Squeeze' into a Ponzi scheme.

A lot of people are the lower end are going to end up losing a lot of money while the smart boys are 'shouting hold' they are selling and as momentum builds the inexperienced will be keeping the price high until is all goes horribly wrong for them.

This has likely been said before and better, but these threads get a bit long. This has been bothering me for a few days and I needed to say it.

Thank you.

B.


PB,

There is a potentially valid argument that the turnaround strategy that GME had launched, and which was taking them online, was going to show sufficiently good results that GME as a business would grow and prosper. Clearly its current valuation is entirely disconnected from that, as it is now more about whose face is going to get ripped off first (hedgie shorts vs wsb-longs), but I think it is worth observing that this was not necessarily a dead-cert coffin-case.

regards, dspp

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Re: Thoughts on the meaning of WSB?

#382520

Postby dealtn » January 31st, 2021, 6:38 pm

TUK020 wrote:
However, if we were to try and work out a system of destroying engagement in society, we would find it tough to create a system more insidiously effective than constricting the supply of property so that young people are condemned to spend the vast proportion of their income on substandard accommodation, and lose hope of ever becoming an owner.


Quite possibly true, and not really on topic for this Board. However the fact that there are over 600,000 unoccupied properties in the UK detracts a little from the lack of supply argument.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/re ... s/sn03012/

UK property, and it's unaffordability to many, including the young, is a complex issue. Ironically slashing interest rates to protect the economy, and the employment prospects of the young, are much of the reason house prices are so high.

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Re: Thoughts on the meaning of WSB?

#382522

Postby mark88man » January 31st, 2021, 6:47 pm

dealtn wrote:
TUK020 wrote:
However, if we were to try and work out a system of destroying engagement in society, we would find it tough to create a system more insidiously effective than constricting the supply of property so that young people are condemned to spend the vast proportion of their income on substandard accommodation, and lose hope of ever becoming an owner.


Quite possibly true, and not really on topic for this Board. However the fact that there are over 600,000 unoccupied properties in the UK detracts a little from the lack of supply argument.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/re ... s/sn03012/

UK property, and it's unaffordability to many, including the young, is a complex issue. Ironically slashing interest rates to protect the economy, and the employment prospects of the young, are much of the reason house prices are so high.


A significant number of those unoccupied properties were bought as speculative BTL or as investment, by the generation or the elite being complained of. So to claim this is a problem of those who are unhoused is a little obtuse

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Re: Thoughts on the meaning of WSB?

#382524

Postby dealtn » January 31st, 2021, 6:58 pm

mark88man wrote:
dealtn wrote:
TUK020 wrote:
However, if we were to try and work out a system of destroying engagement in society, we would find it tough to create a system more insidiously effective than constricting the supply of property so that young people are condemned to spend the vast proportion of their income on substandard accommodation, and lose hope of ever becoming an owner.


Quite possibly true, and not really on topic for this Board. However the fact that there are over 600,000 unoccupied properties in the UK detracts a little from the lack of supply argument.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/re ... s/sn03012/

UK property, and it's unaffordability to many, including the young, is a complex issue. Ironically slashing interest rates to protect the economy, and the employment prospects of the young, are much of the reason house prices are so high.


A significant number of those unoccupied properties were bought as speculative BTL or as investment, by the generation or the elite being complained of. So to claim this is a problem of those who are unhoused is a little obtuse


Where have I claimed "this is a problem of those who are unhoused"?

Rather I think I have clearly stated it is a complex issue. In fact it is but one of the mainly complex issues why there is intergenerational conflict.

It appears others are more dogmatic about where the faults lie than anything I have claimed.


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