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Coronovirus catastfophe

Posts: 2
Joined: March 18th, 2021, 5:41 am

Coronovirus catastfophe


Postby Adhill » March 18th, 2021, 7:40 am

This is all pretty much a mess thats been keeping me awake nights and blasted my confidence.

I was building up my private defined contribution pension nicely over many years Im now near 57 and late in life I have also got married with young kids and my wife doesnt work as yet until the kids are in full time school.I am not earning so much now either and to be honest strain is building up.

so my pension pot overall has reached a substantial amount despite some huge mistakes. I have tinkered with my pensiin over the years but mainly played the US bullmarket. However I got really spooked first in 2018 and started rebalancing? Into supposed lesser risk mixed investment funds and totally lost it with 2020 downturn and got signed up to newsletters like outsider club and investorplace etc and various youtube subscriptions . I kind of let them brainwash me that market was about to collapse and cashed a lot of my fundholdings in kind of shorted the market but of course the market rebounded quuckly and is still being pumped up by the US fed into the bubble that it is but for who knows how much longer?

I stayed out of the market for months trying to figure out gold plays advice green investment plays etc but nothing has worked out lost on those but the US market I had a big stake on has overtaken and by quite a lot more. My lower risk funds did not work in March 2020 lost nearly as much as higher risk funds and lower risk diversifued funds have barely recovered.

anyway I started moving cash back into market during post covid crash melt up and rebound bappened so fast I am still doing so but I have now turned again. Cashed in some of the poor property and bond funds as some online advice is to move to emerging markets maybe japan to get some upside but some protection from the next crash, which some also say could be like the japanese ' lost decades' one of 1990.

I think I may now have to confine myself to totally move into Aviva with profits which could well tie me in to prevent me having opportunity to go back in to better returns when market next crashes. However ( despite some bad press I have seen online) so far after 2 years the with profits fund by my estimate have returned over 3% pa on bid which is a lot better than cash deposit actually losing 0.15% in last 12 months according to the Aviva factsheet.

I have also discovered tradestops by tradesmith who claim to give indicators on health of market and signals of when real downturn signals begin to get out of the market. Sounds too good to be true. Anybody used them?

So I have been stubborn and succumbed to all the 'noise' It has overwhelmed me and I have made a lot of dumb moves. A good advert for getting an FA but I was doing ok for many years and FAs only push mediocre products a lot of the time but I guess they do at least keep you on a track.

The fact is the best protection I would have is with profits but mediocre returns I guess are better than quite possibly losing a lot more.

So a real mess I guess the main things I would like to know are does anybody have personal knowledge of being in aviva pensions with profits or know of any other good with profits providers and anybody used tradestops by tradesmith and can give any feedback.

Any friendly input would be welcome. Thank you guys.

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Re: Coronovirus catastfophe


Postby XFool » March 21st, 2021, 2:35 pm

Hello Adhill.

I am a little surprised you have not yet received a reply to your post. Unfortunately I doubt I can offer any real help as things like with profit funds etc. are entirely outside my experience.

Hopefully somebody who can offer constructive help will be along soon. A couple of points: Perhaps it might get more of a response if it was in another place on TLF? Investment Strategies, possibly Pensions - Practical Problems, though I'm not sure about that. Or, for trading systems possibly Financial Software - Discussion

You could simply post a short query there with a link to your post here. (C&P post #) viewtopic.php?p=396602#p396602

Secondly, I know that on the original Motley Fool UK site, and likely on here, things like with profit funds were not popular! (Equitable Life?). The standard 'answer' to pensions is "get a SIPP", which doesn't of course address the investment strategy itself.

You say "I was building up my private defined contribution pension nicely over many years", but don't say how many years. If you were an experienced pension investor I wonder why you were so spooked by recent events. From what you say you seem to have jumped around actively in response to fears of losing money, perhaps what you need is a 'Less is More' approach? As to newsletters forecasting Armageddon, they are always around selling the same story of an imminent crash which is why, every now and then, they are correct. Market/Share trading 'solutions'? They are always around too. They are guaranteed to increase your costs, I have no idea what they will do to your pension fund.

Anyway, I hope you get some useful advice soon.

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Re: Coronovirus catastfophe


Postby 88V8 » March 26th, 2021, 11:20 am

Adhill wrote:I'm now near 57 ... my pension pot ... lost it with 2020 downturn ... cashed a lot of my fundholdings ... I have made a lot of dumb moves. A good advert for getting an FA but .. but FAs only push mediocre products a lot of the time but I guess they do at least keep you on a track.

I did contemplate a reply, then I reported the post and suggested that it be moved to Pensions, dunno...

Anyway... if you'd sold in Jan 2020 and bought back in March that would have been a masterstroke, so the idea was good, but not the timing.
Lesson 1... timing is hard.

Some thoughts:

One merit of giving the pot to an FA is that you wouldn't be able to fiddle.
But I agree with you, you're not going to get great growth.
My experience of FAs is they tend to underperform in a bull and outperform in a bear. They don't aim to shoot the lights out, they just aim not to underperform whatever benchmark they're being measured against.

Same goes for Aviva - managed mediocrity.

If you wish to retire at 65, between now and then I'd be going for growth.
So today, I'd ask on the Investment Trust board for Growth recommendations.
I wouldn't try to pick individual shares. Stick to ITs. That way, no more disasters.
I won't make any recommendations myself, as I'm only into Income.

If you intend to self-invest rather than buy an annuity, about a year before you retire, reconfigure into Income generators; perhaps a mix of HYP shares, Fixed Interest, and Income ITs.

But right now, my short answer, go for Growth.


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Re: Coronovirus catastfophe


Postby Mike4 » March 26th, 2021, 12:05 pm

88V8 wrote:I did contemplate a reply, then I reported the post and suggested that it be moved to Pensions, dunno... <snip>

Good post containing some excellent advice, thanks. Duly recced.

I keep clicking on this thread expecting to read about a coronavirus catastrophe, but I keep getting a rambling post about a pension plan going tits-up...

(Edit to add the 'thanks' bit.)

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