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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#276942

Postby odysseus2000 » January 13th, 2020, 2:25 am

This is an interesting summary of self driving, both Tesla and competitors:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/431638 ... king_alpha

Regards,

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#276944

Postby BobbyD » January 13th, 2020, 5:39 am

tjh290633 wrote:@dspp

I understand that very few, if any, of the Battery electric buses currently operating in the UK are able to complete a full day's work on a single charge. I've been on a London single deck electric which had a planned change onto another vehicle, in order that the original bus could go back to base for recharging.


In which case park and ride would appear to be the perfect starting point for electric busses. 4 routes of a few miles each, with services every 12-20 minutes, for around 12 hours a day. - https://www.stagecoachbus.com/promos-an ... k-and-ride

In the Guildford case the busses involved are BYD Enviro200EV, built by Dennis, which are single deckers with a mooted 160 mile range. Not sure what the battery capacity is, but the double decker version, the Enviro400EV, with an identical 160 mile range has a 382kWh battery.

I'm not sure if this is intended as a permanent solution, now that it is installed, but the reports I have seen have said it was put in because Stagecoach's alternative was to delay electrification for 12 months whilst they waited for an upgrade to their grid connection.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#276955

Postby BobbyD » January 13th, 2020, 8:07 am

Tesla received a license to import only 20 electric cars to Israel in 2020, according to a report in Calcalist. This amount is far below the market’s potential. In addition, Telsa’s autopilot mode will be forbidden to be used.

Driving using a car’s autopilots are currently illegal in Israel, and Israel is concerned by some of the Tesla autopilot accidents that occurred in the US.


- https://www.jewishpress.com/news/israel ... 020/01/12/

dspp
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Re: Musk endeavours

#276974

Postby dspp » January 13th, 2020, 9:30 am

BobbyD wrote:
Tesla received a license to import only 20 electric cars to Israel in 2020, according to a report in Calcalist. This amount is far below the market’s potential. In addition, Telsa’s autopilot mode will be forbidden to be used.

Driving using a car’s autopilots are currently illegal in Israel, and Israel is concerned by some of the Tesla autopilot accidents that occurred in the US.


- https://www.jewishpress.com/news/israel ... 020/01/12/


Nothing to do with the fact that MobilEye which is essentially a Tesla competitor has been one of the Israeli tech success stories ?

dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#276990

Postby BobbyD » January 13th, 2020, 10:27 am

dspp wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
Tesla received a license to import only 20 electric cars to Israel in 2020, according to a report in Calcalist. This amount is far below the market’s potential. In addition, Telsa’s autopilot mode will be forbidden to be used.

Driving using a car’s autopilots are currently illegal in Israel, and Israel is concerned by some of the Tesla autopilot accidents that occurred in the US.


- https://www.jewishpress.com/news/israel ... 020/01/12/


Nothing to do with the fact that MobilEye which is essentially a Tesla competitor has been one of the Israeli tech success stories ?

dspp


Well MobilEye is currently one of Intel's great success stories...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277058

Postby dspp » January 13th, 2020, 2:20 pm

BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:


Nothing to do with the fact that MobilEye which is essentially a Tesla competitor has been one of the Israeli tech success stories ?

dspp


Well MobilEye is currently one of Intel's great success stories...


Yes, but it was originally a Israeli start up that was then bought out by Intel. But remains largely Israel based, along with some other Intel stuff.

Anyway the pure Tesla item is really that sales are large enough to get the import restriction slapped on them until they open a service centre. Which they are in the process of opening.

regards, dspp

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#277093

Postby odysseus2000 » January 13th, 2020, 3:20 pm

For anyone interested, I have reversed my wrong move in selling Tesla late last year and I now have the biggest Tesla position I have ever had.

I might change my Tesla holding at any moment.

Regards,

redsturgeon
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Re: Musk endeavours

#277141

Postby redsturgeon » January 13th, 2020, 6:16 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:For anyone interested, I have reversed my wrong move in selling Tesla late last year and I now have the biggest Tesla position I have ever had.

I might change my Tesla holding at any moment.

Regards,


So I assume you bought higher than you sold.

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277144

Postby scrumpyjack » January 13th, 2020, 6:26 pm

I'm happy to hold Tesla via my holding in Scottish Mortgage Trust, who have a very large holding which has doubled in value since they did a formal review of whether to sell Tesla when things got very dicey a while ago. Fortunately they decided it was not a good idea to sell at that point.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277147

Postby odysseus2000 » January 13th, 2020, 6:29 pm

redsturgeon wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:For anyone interested, I have reversed my wrong move in selling Tesla late last year and I now have the biggest Tesla position I have ever had.

I might change my Tesla holding at any moment.

Regards,


So I assume you bought higher than you sold.

John


Yes, bought higher, doing so didn't bother me at all.

Seeing an opportunity & not taking it would trouble me.

Regards,

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#277169

Postby Howard » January 13th, 2020, 9:10 pm

BMW R&D Chief: ‘Most of the US does not need BEVs’

I'm not looking for agreement with the strategy in this article, as I personally haven't any idea whether BMW will be successful with this approach. (But they did sell more than 2.5 million premium cars last year - an all-time high ;) )

At least they have a novel take on the US market which they know well and their sales of cars in the USA in 2019 were up on 2018. We'll see if this flexible approach on vehicle architecture works over the next few years. Also interesting views on the possible use of hydrogen for trucks.

https://electrek.co/2020/01/13/bmw-rd-c ... need-bevs/

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277180

Postby odysseus2000 » January 13th, 2020, 10:02 pm

Howard wrote:BMW R&D Chief: ‘Most of the US does not need BEVs’

I'm not looking for agreement with the strategy in this article, as I personally haven't any idea whether BMW will be successful with this approach. (But they did sell more than 2.5 million premium cars last year - an all-time high ;) )

At least they have a novel take on the US market which they know well and their sales of cars in the USA in 2019 were up on 2018. We'll see if this flexible approach on vehicle architecture works over the next few years. Also interesting views on the possible use of hydrogen for trucks.

https://electrek.co/2020/01/13/bmw-rd-c ... need-bevs/

regards

Howard

.
Does anyone care about BMW anymore?

They are doomed and the BMW R&D chief is just trying to justify the decision they took not to get in battery making etc that would be needed for BEV. Arguing that batteries are wiped out in 2 years also adds to his salvo towards keeping things the same and not spending on battery making which is anyhow an impossibility for them given their weak balance sheet.

He might as well have been a brick and mortar book seller telling anyone who would listen that Amazon are not a threat.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277198

Postby odysseus2000 » January 13th, 2020, 11:46 pm

Don't know if this is legitimate nor how long between this certificate and sales of Y, but it would support the recent share price strength:

https://twitter.com/hoonable/status/121 ... 36864?s=20

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#277202

Postby odysseus2000 » January 14th, 2020, 12:52 am

Tesla semi to enter production in second half of 2020:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-fi ... te-update/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277213

Postby BobbyD » January 14th, 2020, 5:54 am

Howard wrote:BMW R&D Chief: ‘Most of the US does not need BEVs’

I'm not looking for agreement with the strategy in this article, as I personally haven't any idea whether BMW will be successful with this approach. (But they did sell more than 2.5 million premium cars last year - an all-time high ;) )

At least they have a novel take on the US market which they know well and their sales of cars in the USA in 2019 were up on 2018. We'll see if this flexible approach on vehicle architecture works over the next few years. Also interesting views on the possible use of hydrogen for trucks.

https://electrek.co/2020/01/13/bmw-rd-c ... need-bevs/

regards

Howard


Froehlich argues that BMW’s vehicle architectures need to be as flexible as possible because the rate of EV adoption will be primarily based on the emissions rules for each market. Here’s how he breaks down those markets:

China – Big east coast cities will go EV “pretty soon,” while western China will rely on gas engines for “the next 15 to 20 years.”
Europe – Froehlich favors plug-in hybrids over EVs. He said PHEVS, which will replace V8 vehicles, will account for about 25% of European sales. Another 25% will go to BEVs, and a half or more to be shared by gas and diesel.
United States ­– Froehlich says, “Most of the US does not need BEVs.” He sees adoption mostly on the west coast and parts of the east coast. And the rest of the US? Status quo.



Coincidentally yesterday I spotted this in an article on MEB while I was bm'ing it to read later today:

Image

...

VW says it will build the electric cars in 16 “e-locations” around the world by late 2022, including some in Europe and one plant in the U.S. VW isn’t sure exactly where, but calls Chattanooga a “natural fit.” Most of the plants, though, will be in China, where about 50 percent of 2025's 1 million annual EVs will be sold, with Europe representing about 30 to 40 percent, and the U.S. representing around 10 to 20 percent.


- The Fascinating Engineering Behind VW's Electric Car Platform of the Future, https://jalopnik.com/the-fascinating-en ... 1829257860

The talk was being given 'Last Fall', so the projection represented on the slide is out of date, and America isn't VW's biggest market, but look at how thin that blue ribbon is.

Now BMW may be covering their BEV modesty with alternative strategies or this may be a genuine concern, but VW are all in on BEV's and America is the one major market they don't already dominate.

On a per capita basis that graph, if generalisable, would make the EU (more regulated, higher income) by far the most BEV friendly market, whilst China (more regulated, lower income) and the US (less regulated, higher income) are essentially tied.

Which makes you wonder why if they believed the US was as fertile a BEV market as the more regulated European and Chinese markets VW wouldn't be targeting higher sales in the US as a way to break big in that market. After all not everyone in the US drives a pick up. The Americans are not adverse to spending large sums on cars so it isn't an affordability issue and the US is pretty much the definition of a car culture with a car ownership rate around six times that in China.

I doubt this is really a surprise to anybody who recognises the 49 states which aren't California.

odysseus2000 wrote:Does anyone care about BMW anymore?


I'm sure as soon as Tesla outsell them in San Marino over a single quarter you will once again consider them the perfect representation of all legacy car companies.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277305

Postby Howard » January 14th, 2020, 11:22 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard wrote:BMW R&D Chief: ‘Most of the US does not need BEVs’

I'm not looking for agreement with the strategy in this article, as I personally haven't any idea whether BMW will be successful with this approach. (But they did sell more than 2.5 million premium cars last year - an all-time high ;) )

At least they have a novel take on the US market which they know well and their sales of cars in the USA in 2019 were up on 2018. We'll see if this flexible approach on vehicle architecture works over the next few years. Also interesting views on the possible use of hydrogen for trucks.

https://electrek.co/2020/01/13/bmw-rd-c ... need-bevs/

regards

Howard

.
Does anyone care about BMW anymore?

They are doomed and the BMW R&D chief is just trying to justify the decision they took not to get in battery making etc that would be needed for BEV. Arguing that batteries are wiped out in 2 years also adds to his salvo towards keeping things the same and not spending on battery making which is anyhow an impossibility for them given their weak balance sheet.

He might as well have been a brick and mortar book seller telling anyone who would listen that Amazon are not a threat.

Regards,


Ody

You throw out statements about Tesla’s competitors without any factual basis. How can we take you seriously?

I don’t claim to understand the complexities of large company balance sheets, but a little research suggests you may not understand the strength of the BMW balance sheet.

BMW has been building large reserves off the balance sheet. Their accounting seems to be very conservative. The company is one of the largest landowners around Munich, one of the most expensive areas in Germany. Real estate owned by BMW is valued at costs which are years old . BMW owns production and assembly plants in more than 10 countries. Their book value does not represent current land values.

If you look carefully I think you may find that their assets are much larger than at first appear and thus their balance sheet strength may be more than many of their rivals - including Tesla! So unless you can prove otherwise, this is just a baseless allegation.

Maybe you should analyse the reasons for their success in selling half a million electric cars a little more carefully too ;) . Maybe they are exploiting large market niches that other BEV manufacturers aren't reaching?

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277361

Postby odysseus2000 » January 14th, 2020, 1:51 pm

Ody

You throw out statements about Tesla’s competitors without any factual basis. How can we take you seriously?

I don’t claim to understand the complexities of large company balance sheets, but a little research suggests you may not understand the strength of the BMW balance sheet.

BMW has been building large reserves off the balance sheet. Their accounting seems to be very conservative. The company is one of the largest landowners around Munich, one of the most expensive areas in Germany. Real estate owned by BMW is valued at costs which are years old . BMW owns production and assembly plants in more than 10 countries. Their book value does not represent current land values.

If you look carefully I think you may find that their assets are much larger than at first appear and thus their balance sheet strength may be more than many of their rivals - including Tesla! So unless you can prove otherwise, this is just a baseless allegation.

Maybe you should analyse the reasons for their success in selling half a million electric cars a little more carefully too ;) . Maybe they are exploiting large market niches that other BEV manufacturers aren't reaching?

regards

Howard


There are assets and there is cash.

If BMW want to go after Tesla they are going to have to have their own dedicated battery making and BEV production facilities. This will cost a lot more than the 10 billion Euro they have on their balance sheet and to do this means cuts to their existing production, hurting their cash flow.

If they really want to go after the future their only option will be heavy borrowing and it becomes a difficult negotiation as they are asking for new money to produce alternatives to existing kit, so draining their own cash flow from existing lines to build new lines. They can of course argue that their existing assets are of great value, but that will be laughed at by the bankers who know that existing manufacturing kit has no value once the stuff it was made to produce becomes obsolete.

Also what about labour: Do they lay off a lot of people, or hire more or re-purpose?

This kind of rapid transition between one technology and a new technology is fraught with all kinds of troubles and they have not begun, likely believing that they can continue to turn out what they have been doing and what they planned to do without any change in an industry that is changing very rapidly.

BMW management have a miserable job, not one I would want to deal with, but if they want to be part of a BEV future they will have to start closing production lines and converting them to new product and doing it quickly. However, if they do that to safeguard their future they will hurt the now and upset shareholders who have a similar view to you: If stuff is selling why change for an uncertain future.

Imagine if you were on the BMW board, what would you advise?

I imagine BMW will soon go to the German government and say they need financial help and in the by and by it will likely be provided and it will cause all manner of complications within the EU and with tariffs from overseas markets etc etc.

In the meantime they are on the propaganda front telling all the consumers in the world what kinds of cars they want and that co2 emission isn't a big problem, the fires in Australia and global warming nothing to do with them etc.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277381

Postby odysseus2000 » January 14th, 2020, 2:43 pm

Just for information, I am again out of Tesla, but may re-enter at any moment.

Regards,

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#277389

Postby Howard » January 14th, 2020, 2:55 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Ody

You throw out statements about Tesla’s competitors without any factual basis. How can we take you seriously?

I don’t claim to understand the complexities of large company balance sheets, but a little research suggests you may not understand the strength of the BMW balance sheet.

BMW has been building large reserves off the balance sheet. Their accounting seems to be very conservative. The company is one of the largest landowners around Munich, one of the most expensive areas in Germany. Real estate owned by BMW is valued at costs which are years old . BMW owns production and assembly plants in more than 10 countries. Their book value does not represent current land values.

If you look carefully I think you may find that their assets are much larger than at first appear and thus their balance sheet strength may be more than many of their rivals - including Tesla! So unless you can prove otherwise, this is just a baseless allegation.

Maybe you should analyse the reasons for their success in selling half a million electric cars a little more carefully too ;) . Maybe they are exploiting large market niches that other BEV manufacturers aren't reaching?

regards

Howard


There are assets and there is cash.

If BMW want to go after Tesla they are going to have to have their own dedicated battery making and BEV production facilities. This will cost a lot more than the 10 billion Euro they have on their balance sheet and to do this means cuts to their existing production, hurting their cash flow.

If they really want to go after the future their only option will be heavy borrowing and it becomes a difficult negotiation as they are asking for new money to produce alternatives to existing kit, so draining their own cash flow from existing lines to build new lines. They can of course argue that their existing assets are of great value, but that will be laughed at by the bankers who know that existing manufacturing kit has no value once the stuff it was made to produce becomes obsolete.

Also what about labour: Do they lay off a lot of people, or hire more or re-purpose?

This kind of rapid transition between one technology and a new technology is fraught with all kinds of troubles and they have not begun, likely believing that they can continue to turn out what they have been doing and what they planned to do without any change in an industry that is changing very rapidly.

BMW management have a miserable job, not one I would want to deal with, but if they want to be part of a BEV future they will have to start closing production lines and converting them to new product and doing it quickly. However, if they do that to safeguard their future they will hurt the now and upset shareholders who have a similar view to you: If stuff is selling why change for an uncertain future.

Imagine if you were on the BMW board, what would you advise?

I imagine BMW will soon go to the German government and say they need financial help and in the by and by it will likely be provided and it will cause all manner of complications within the EU and with tariffs from overseas markets etc etc.

In the meantime they are on the propaganda front telling all the consumers in the world what kinds of cars they want and that co2 emission isn't a big problem, the fires in Australia and global warming nothing to do with them etc.

Regards,


There are a few problems with your arguments. For example, Tesla’s sales in the USA dropped in the final quarter of 2019 indicating a lack of demand in their home market. BMW sales increased in the USA throughout 2019, finishing with a final surge at the end of the year (to 325,000 cars). We don’t know if this trend will continue but if it does, this indicates that BMW have a profitable niche in the premium sector of the market where BMW outsells Tesla and unlike them, makes a profit on each sale!

In Germany BMW sells a large volume of electric cars, using Panasonic batteries and announced a deal with two further suppliers last year (CATL and Samsung), and, as you know, they have sold more than 250,000 electric cars already. Yes, they are smaller batteries than Tesla use, but they are currently selling in volume and helping to reduce the company's average emissions to EU standards.

You may not agree with this analysis, but if this guy is right, Tesla are going to struggle to achieve growth in sales in 2020.

I Am Forecasting Flat Unit Sales For Tesla In 2020 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins ... 30bef94196

To dismiss his arguments that Tesla is about to experience a no-growth year, you will have to explain why Tesla’s sales growth actually fell back in the USA at the end of last year. And, halfway through January, Tesla’s sales in Norway, Netherlands and Spain have tumbled to just 47 cars! Do you think these markets will recover significantly this year? And we don’t know yet how many cars Tesla will sell in China. This year has started rather slowly. How many cars will Tesla sell in China against tough competition?

Finally, be careful about using the environmental argument, the jury is still out on how environmentally friendly BEVs will prove. We all know that big oil has been a massive polluter, but producing overweight cars with huge batteries for consumers who typically have gas guzzlers as well, in time might not appear quite as environmentally friendly as manufacturing cars with smaller batteries which meet the average consumers’ needs better.

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#277402

Postby odysseus2000 » January 14th, 2020, 3:43 pm

Part re-enter and with buy stops over current price to give same holding as yesterday in case price runs again.

Regards,


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