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Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

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Watis
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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#283973

Postby Watis » February 13th, 2020, 11:59 am

Things we don't know (yet):

- the actual incubation period before symptoms show but patients are infectious.

- all transmission vectors.

- whether survivors are immune from reinfection.

And the big one for me: whether the survivors are completely recovered, or are there as yet unknown long term health issues, as seen with the Zika virus?

Watis

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#283984

Postby Chrysalis » February 13th, 2020, 12:26 pm

Watis wrote:Things we don't know (yet):

- the actual incubation period before symptoms show but patients are infectious.

- all transmission vectors.

- whether survivors are immune from reinfection.

And the big one for me: whether the survivors are completely recovered, or are there as yet unknown long term health issues, as seen with the Zika virus?

Watis


On your last point. Coronaviruses are quite common, they are one of the viruses that cause the common cold (as well as the previous more serious SARS and MERS outbreaks), so I would assume that recovery would be complete (although in a vulnerable person with underlying lung disease recovery might be slow and respiratory function damaged long term).

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#283989

Postby dspp » February 13th, 2020, 12:46 pm

Chrysalis wrote:
Watis wrote:Things we don't know (yet):

- the actual incubation period before symptoms show but patients are infectious.

- all transmission vectors.

- whether survivors are immune from reinfection.

And the big one for me: whether the survivors are completely recovered, or are there as yet unknown long term health issues, as seen with the Zika virus?

Watis


On your last point. Coronaviruses are quite common, they are one of the viruses that cause the common cold (as well as the previous more serious SARS and MERS outbreaks), so I would assume that recovery would be complete (although in a vulnerable person with underlying lung disease recovery might be slow and respiratory function damaged long term).


My understanding is that this is about 10x the fatality rate (2.9%) vs a relatively bad year's flu (0.2%). Not ideal if you are elderly/sick/compromised, but it could be a lot worse. Assuming it doesn't mutate into something worse of course.

regards, dspp

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#283996

Postby Dod101 » February 13th, 2020, 1:08 pm

Chrysalis wrote:[
On your last point. Coronaviruses are quite common, they are one of the viruses that cause the common cold (as well as the previous more serious SARS and MERS outbreaks), so I would assume that recovery would be complete (although in a vulnerable person with underlying lung disease recovery might be slow and respiratory function damaged long term).


I am jumping in on this thread- never a good idea I know- but bearing in mind that there have now been a lot of deaths from this virus and that the authorities are treating it with a lot more concern than a common cold, I would suggest that your assumption is wrong and you sound rather more complacent than seems warranted.
Early this morning I was about to disembark from a flight from the Far East (where I should think about half those you will see in Airports, such as Singapore and KL are now wearing masks) We were all held on board for more than 90 minutes because of a health scare related to the virus, many flights to and from China have been cancelled and there is general disruption. Certainly on the evidence most medics are treating this as rather more serious than a common cold.

Dod

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284005

Postby servodude » February 13th, 2020, 1:22 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Chrysalis wrote:[
On your last point. Coronaviruses are quite common, they are one of the viruses that cause the common cold (as well as the previous more serious SARS and MERS outbreaks), so I would assume that recovery would be complete (although in a vulnerable person with underlying lung disease recovery might be slow and respiratory function damaged long term).


I am jumping in on this thread- never a good idea I know- but bearing in mind that there have now been a lot of deaths from this virus and that the authorities are treating it with a lot more concern than a common cold, I would suggest that your assumption is wrong and you sound rather more complacent than seems warranted.
Early this morning I was about to disembark from a flight from the Far East (where I should think about half those you will see in Airports, such as Singapore and KL are now wearing masks) We were all held on board for more than 90 minutes because of a health scare related to the virus, many flights to and from China have been cancelled and there is general disruption. Certainly on the evidence most medics are treating this as rather more serious than a common cold.

Dod


This is what I can't reconcile:
- on paper it doesn't seem "that bad"
- but the actions of "China" seem very out of step with that
and everywhere else is still getting most of their data from the PRC

I thought we'd see a spike in cases now given the time since lunar New year, incubation and travel etc but I guess that logic really means this is where we expect things to plateau or not?
I do know it's going to leave huge holes in Australian University classes!

-sd

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284014

Postby dspp » February 13th, 2020, 2:06 pm

servodude wrote:I do know it's going to leave huge holes in Australian University classes!

-sd


and English private school classes

regards,
dspp

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284054

Postby sackofspuds » February 13th, 2020, 5:09 pm

... and the good news is that you can fly to Beijing from London any time you like on Turkish Airlines, Emirates, Air China, China Southern, Qatar Airways, Etihad, etc.

Just because BA isn't doing it, doesn't mean plenty of other airlines aren't.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284084

Postby Dod101 » February 13th, 2020, 7:44 pm

sackofspuds wrote:... and the good news is that you can fly to Beijing from London any time you like on Turkish Airlines, Emirates, Air China, China Southern, Qatar Airways, Etihad, etc.

Just because BA isn't doing it, doesn't mean plenty of other airlines aren't.


It is only good news if you want to fly to Beijing anyway. But what is your point? (I may say that I am somewhat sceptical of the scare element of it and would never wear a face mask)

Dod

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284096

Postby Itsallaguess » February 13th, 2020, 8:57 pm

sackofspuds wrote:
China is now in a cleft stick. Many of its factories are shut down. Its economy is going to suffer big time. I reckon it has already lost the battle against the virus.

It will have to declare soon that it has things under control, stop the virtual house arrest of millions and get everyone back to work.

It will then switch resources to concentrate on treating those who are infected.

Of course, once China gives up trying to stop the virus spreading it is pretty much guaranteed to be a global pandemic.

This all may sound alarmist but that's the way I see it.

I can't see markets just keeping going up once it gets to that stage but I may be wrong. Everyone may just shrug their shoulders.

The basic question remains. Why, if Covid-19 is nothing to worry about, did China put millions under virtual house arrest?


And for balance, here's the latest views of the World Health Organisation -

Coronavirus cases are not rising dramatically outside China despite a spike in Hubei province, the World Health Organization (WHO) says.

The only exception was on a cruise liner docked in Japan, where 44 new cases were reported, bringing the total there to 218.

There was also no major shift in the coronavirus's pattern of mortality or severity, according to the WHO.

Hubei recorded 242 deaths on Wednesday, the deadliest day of the outbreak.

There was also a huge increase in cases, with 14,840 people diagnosed but most of this was down to Hubei using a broader definition to diagnose people, said Mike Ryan, head of WHO's health emergencies programme.

"This does not represent a significant change in the trajectory of the outbreak," he said.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51495484

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284098

Postby redsturgeon » February 13th, 2020, 9:00 pm

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chi ... e-scenario

Some data looking at the continued shutdown in China.

John

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284101

Postby servodude » February 13th, 2020, 9:16 pm

dspp wrote:
servodude wrote:I do know it's going to leave huge holes in Australian University classes!

-sd


and English private school classes

regards,
dspp


I guess that there might have been some that travelled back for it.
Fresher's week in Melbourne is the last week in Feb; so from that timing aspect this could not have been worse. With the blanket ban on entry for non-citizens traveling from China it's going to be a very interesting year, I'm not sure how they're going to try to cope (remote teaching, catching up?)

-sd

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284112

Postby dspp » February 13th, 2020, 10:10 pm

redsturgeon wrote:https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-has-ground-halt-ground-indicators-confirm-worst-case-scenario

Some data looking at the continued shutdown in China.

John


Colleagues in China tell me that they have spent 20-days in their own home now. They are in Beijing.

regards, dspp

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284145

Postby johnhemming » February 14th, 2020, 7:23 am

AIUI one of the difficulties in china has been having testing kits to test if people have the virus itself rather than symptoms of it. That means that the figures reported to the WHO are primarily restricted by the availability of testing. The most recent change (not yet reflected in the WHO figures) was to report people suffering from the symptoms who had not been tested (it appears they were not allowed treatment either).

Other countries are reporting asymptomatic carriers of the virus where they can find them.

Japan has reported a death from the virus (an 80 year old woman) where the route of infection is unclear.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284167

Postby dspp » February 14th, 2020, 9:00 am

johnhemming wrote:AIUI one of the difficulties in china has been having testing kits to test if people have the virus itself rather than symptoms of it. That means that the figures reported to the WHO are primarily restricted by the availability of testing. The most recent change (not yet reflected in the WHO figures) was to report people suffering from the symptoms who had not been tested (it appears they were not allowed treatment either).

Other countries are reporting asymptomatic carriers of the virus where they can find them.

Japan has reported a death from the virus (an 80 year old woman) where the route of infection is unclear.


John,
My understanding is the recent uptick in Chinese cases was a change from only accepting testing kit results, to also accepting x-ray/MRI/etc scan results (i.e. evidence of deep lung infections). It was not an 'anything goes' change.
regards,
dspp

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284186

Postby johnhemming » February 14th, 2020, 9:34 am

That is my understanding as well. It also means that the symptoms without a test have to be quite severe.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284312

Postby gryffron » February 14th, 2020, 3:11 pm

sackofspuds wrote:China is now in a cleft stick. Many of its factories are shut down. Its economy is going to suffer big time. I reckon it has already lost the battle against the virus.
It will have to declare soon that it has things under control, stop the virtual house arrest of millions and get everyone back to work.

This point had already occurred to me. There must become a point at which the (economic) cost of containment, exceeds the cost of simply letting the virus run its course through the population. Especially bearing in mind that those most vulnerable to death from the disease are unlikely to be economically active anyway.

I doubt if any western country would or could have reacted the way China did?

Gryff

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284414

Postby johnhemming » February 15th, 2020, 8:14 am

There is, of course, an issue with the speed at which the virus infects people. If it does it slowly over a number of years then the health services can more readily cope.

My feeling about this is that gradually people will decide not to take the risk of attending large events. Hence more conferences will be cancelled and people will be careful about planning new one. It is also possible that people will decide not to travel as much. Obvioulsy things could shift as it gets warmer and potentially the virus becomes less of an issue, but I would not expect it to have been controlled by when it gets colder again later this year.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284471

Postby odysseus2000 » February 15th, 2020, 11:35 am

johnhemming wrote:There is, of course, an issue with the speed at which the virus infects people. If it does it slowly over a number of years then the health services can more readily cope.

My feeling about this is that gradually people will decide not to take the risk of attending large events. Hence more conferences will be cancelled and people will be careful about planning new one. It is also possible that people will decide not to travel as much. Obvioulsy things could shift as it gets warmer and potentially the virus becomes less of an issue, but I would not expect it to have been controlled by when it gets colder again later this year.


Most virus have a potency period and then lose their killing ability. We e.g. don't worry about Spanish Flu, Sars or any of the other ones that at their peak were fearful killers.

It is of course possible that something new might emerge but these kinds of virus, which as I understand it come from virus passage through bats and camels, are regular human troubles and in their less virulent forms lead to the common cold. Most virus, as I understand it, come from passage through some host. Some of the more recent ones e.g. came from poultry.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284487

Postby johnhemming » February 15th, 2020, 12:23 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:these kinds of virus,

It is difficult at this stage to be clear as to what actions are required. I am not sure we can just rely on the precedents from SARS etc.

We know that China has shut down large parts of the country in an attempt to slow the virus. I don't personally think we should do the same, but I do think we should take some reasonable actions to slow opportunities for infection. People can do that on an individual basis and are doing so (even if some are being a bit silly and not going to Chinese restaurants).

I would expect to see further cancellation of conferences and am giving personal consideration as to what actions to take. I am no longer a substantial employer (at peak I had 300 employees and at a later peak 260) and I have already talked to the staff in my office about the issue.

I am worried that the impact on the NHS could be quite damaging in terms of overloading facilities. It may calm down as things warm up (it probably will to some extent), but that does not mean that we are necessarily reacting at a sufficient level at the moment in the UK.

Zerohedge have a later (yesterday) report of China as well.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chi ... ching-zero

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#284508

Postby odysseus2000 » February 15th, 2020, 2:23 pm

johnhemming wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:these kinds of virus,

It is difficult at this stage to be clear as to what actions are required. I am not sure we can just rely on the precedents from SARS etc.

We know that China has shut down large parts of the country in an attempt to slow the virus. I don't personally think we should do the same, but I do think we should take some reasonable actions to slow opportunities for infection. People can do that on an individual basis and are doing so (even if some are being a bit silly and not going to Chinese restaurants).

I would expect to see further cancellation of conferences and am giving personal consideration as to what actions to take. I am no longer a substantial employer (at peak I had 300 employees and at a later peak 260) and I have already talked to the staff in my office about the issue.

I am worried that the impact on the NHS could be quite damaging in terms of overloading facilities. It may calm down as things warm up (it probably will to some extent), but that does not mean that we are necessarily reacting at a sufficient level at the moment in the UK.

Zerohedge have a later (yesterday) report of China as well.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chi ... ching-zero


I have to commend you for ramping up the bear story, but the reality is that this is folk who are short trying to take the market down and failing miserably.

I would take absolutely nothing from what zerohedge say because their track record is that they are hopelessly wrong about everything all the time.

Until the Centre for Disease Control change their tune one can be certain this virus is what they say, a more or less run of the corona virus via passage through camels and bats.

Unless something changes this news story will fade away as did all of the others covering all the myriad of virus scares that bears dream up.

If this virus becomes the sort of slayer of economies and people that the doomsayers are predicting it will become known to the big market investors via their extensive range of contacts and markets will dive rather than continue to rally in the greatest bull market I have ever seen.

Regards,


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