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Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

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tikunetih
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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294109

Postby tikunetih » March 25th, 2020, 4:09 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:It is not clear to me if the arguments that it is only old people who are in danger is correct.


There's plenty of data regarding fatality rates for different age cohorts:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/


odysseus2000 wrote:If this virus is all over the place as these things are suggesting, the danger is that the NHS will be broken, especially if the reports of lack of PPE for NHS staff are correct.


There are different aspects to this; for example:
- when health systems become overwhelmed, such that ventilator support etc is unavailable, fatality rates can rise very significantly (eg. tripling);
- but, if the virus was already much more widespread than previously thought, that could mean that fatality rates are much lower than presently appears (due to the denominator being grossly understated), and herd immunity would occur much sooner; antibody testing will improve clarity here.

It's the fog of war currently, but this will improve.

SalvorHardin
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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294112

Postby SalvorHardin » March 25th, 2020, 4:11 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:It is not clear to me if the arguments that it is only old people who are in danger is correct.

True, but the vast majority of deaths are elderly people. Those with underlying health conditions (particularly those which affect respiration or have had organ transplants) dominate the statistics and those who aren't elderly yet died had similar underlying health conditions. There have been extremely few deaths of people who do not match this profile, such as the young Chinese health workers who died having been exposed to a huge "viral load" (massive exposure to the virus).

Although my biology education is weak (at least until a few weeks ago when I started reading up on virology), drawing on my statistics background I reckon that the relatively few people who have died and do not fit the above profile are due to genetic mutations (or undiagnosed conditions).

An example is the five year old girl who suffered life threatening infections from the common cold (rhinoviruses). It turned out that the girl's MDA5 proteins didn't detect rhinoviruses because of a genetic mutation so her immune system couldn't fight the cold. This is a rare condition.

https://www.livescience.com/59460-cold-susceptibility-genes.html

Back to investment. A huge amount of scientific research is going on to defeat the coronavirus. A biologist friend of mine calls it "This generation's Manhattan Project". Vaccines to protect those who aren't infected will take many months, if not a year, to come to market due to the need to test them. However, it's quite possible that researchers and regulators will compress the required time due to the global impact of the coronavirus.

There is a lot of research going on into antivirals which aim to reduce or eliminate the infection in those already infected. Some of these can quickly come to market because they have already been used on humans for other things, so doctors are able to prescribe them for use against the Coronavirus (e.g. Gilead Sciences' "Remdesivir"). If one of these antiviral treatments shows great promise after clinical trials, the markets will rocket even if there's been no major developments in vaccines. The use of these antivirals will stop health systems from collapsing under too many serious cases, which is the reason behind the self-isolation and social distancing strategy, freeing up much of the economy.

Better testing will help; identifying those who've recovered from it will let them move back into normal economic activity. Today's announcement of 3.5 million testing kits for the UK is a very good sign.

One treatment is using antibodies from those who have been infected and recovered. These can be turned into monoclonal antibodies which can be mass produced. Regeneron and Moderna are big players here. Earlier this month Moderna started trials of a vaccine which it hopes could come into experimental use on patients within six months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/moderna-s-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-set-to-begin-this-month

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/23/business/moderna-might-seek-emergency-approval-this-fall-coronavirus-vaccine-health-care-workers/

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294177

Postby odysseus2000 » March 25th, 2020, 6:05 pm

redstrurgeon
Here are the statistics:

https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/ ... 09/photo/1

Nobody is saying ONLY old people are at danger but it is MUCH more dangerous for older people.

John


Thank you!

Super informative chart.

Its a little concerning that the Italian death rates (green) are the largest, but as we have discussed this may reflect how many are being correctly diagnosed.

If the numbers are right and we have similar rates to Italy, Prince Charles has an 87.5% chance of surviving and likely better as he will have the best treatments possible and the best medics too.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294274

Postby gryffron » March 25th, 2020, 10:21 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:If the numbers are right and we have similar rates to Italy, Prince Charles has an 87.5% chance of surviving and likely better as he will have the best treatments possible and the best medics too.

AFAIK he has never been a smoker (unlike many Italians). Nor has he lived in a polluted industrial City. So I would suggest his chances are way higher than a "typical" Northern Italian, even before we consider the A1 healthcare he will no doubt receive.

Gryff

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294441

Postby zico » March 26th, 2020, 12:28 pm

It appears likely that UK deaths from Covid-19 are being under-reported.
Over the last 6 days, the daily deaths reported have shown no significant upwards trend, which seems very strange, because we know the daily cases reported were rising at between 22%-35% per day.

It turns out the Government is only publishing Covid-19 deaths when the consent of next-of-kin has been received. If consent is refused, or not chased-up (due to their being a crisis on) then published deaths will be lower than actual deaths.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294442

Postby redsturgeon » March 26th, 2020, 12:32 pm

zico wrote:It appears likely that UK deaths from Covid-19 are being under-reported.
Over the last 6 days, the daily deaths reported have shown no significant upwards trend, which seems very strange, because we know the daily cases reported were rising at between 22%-35% per day.

It turns out the Government is only publishing Covid-19 deaths when the consent of next-of-kin has been received. If consent is refused, or not chased-up (due to their being a crisis on) then published deaths will be lower than actual deaths.


I heard this too. Isn't it a bit strange that the government "needs" the consent of next of kin to add your anonymous death to a total number. Is that really true , if your next of kin is murdered or dies in a traffic incident, do we not report the numbers unless you consent...I call BS.

John

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294448

Postby zico » March 26th, 2020, 12:49 pm

redsturgeon wrote:
I heard this too. Isn't it a bit strange that the government "needs" the consent of next of kin to add your anonymous death to a total number. Is that really true , if your next of kin is murdered or dies in a traffic incident, do we not report the numbers unless you consent...I call BS.

John


Yes, it makes no sense, except when the number are very low indeed - say, less than 5 when family members might be able infer it was their critically ill relative who'd died. Implications of this are that the real UK deaths are very likely to be following a similar curve to Italy (similar situations, similar populations, same virus).

Italy may also be under-reporting. Town of Nembro near Bergamo, has had 158 deaths this year compared to 35 in comparable past years, but only 31 Covid-19 deaths. So that's 96 extra deaths from... something else?

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294449

Postby zico » March 26th, 2020, 12:50 pm

US jobless total just in at 3.3 million people.Their biggest rise in history. Analysts had been expecting anywhere between 250,000 and 2 million.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294453

Postby 77ss » March 26th, 2020, 1:02 pm

zico wrote:It appears likely that UK deaths from Covid-19 are being under-reported.
Over the last 6 days, the daily deaths reported have shown no significant upwards trend, which seems very strange, because we know the daily cases reported were rising at between 22%-35% per day.

It turns out the Government is only publishing Covid-19 deaths when the consent of next-of-kin has been received. If consent is refused, or not chased-up (due to their being a crisis on) then published deaths will be lower than actual deaths.


Do you have a reference to back this up?

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294455

Postby tikunetih » March 26th, 2020, 1:07 pm

zico wrote:Analysts had been expecting anywhere between 250,000 and 2 million.


The median forecast was in the 2.25-2.5M range (ie, it was rising rapidly), with the upper forecast around 4M.

As ever, more important than the number itself is how markets react to it.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294463

Postby zico » March 26th, 2020, 1:29 pm

Links to Newsnight clip explaining the change in UK deaths reporting.

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/ ... 0202818561

Links to the report on possible Italy under-reporting.

https://twitter.com/FerdiGiugliano/stat ... 0121618432

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294469

Postby Chrysalis » March 26th, 2020, 2:00 pm

redsturgeon wrote:
zico wrote:It appears likely that UK deaths from Covid-19 are being under-reported.
Over the last 6 days, the daily deaths reported have shown no significant upwards trend, which seems very strange, because we know the daily cases reported were rising at between 22%-35% per day.

It turns out the Government is only publishing Covid-19 deaths when the consent of next-of-kin has been received. If consent is refused, or not chased-up (due to their being a crisis on) then published deaths will be lower than actual deaths.


I heard this too. Isn't it a bit strange that the government "needs" the consent of next of kin to add your anonymous death to a total number. Is that really true , if your next of kin is murdered or dies in a traffic incident, do we not report the numbers unless you consent...I call BS.

John


It’s not needed. There is no data protection for dead people, and no consent is needed to publish death statistics.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294480

Postby 77ss » March 26th, 2020, 2:30 pm

zico wrote:Links to Newsnight clip explaining the change in UK deaths reporting.

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/ ... 0202818561

Links to the report on possible Italy under-reporting.

https://twitter.com/FerdiGiugliano/stat ... 0121618432


Thanks. I don't care to rely on twitter,but given your clue I found a more reputable source:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... in-england

The relevant extract, from a Downing Street lobby briefing:

The spokesman confirmed that the way UK coronavirus deaths are recorded and made public is changing (see 11.07am), but he was unable to give details of how. He said Public Health England was moving to a different reporting time. Yesterday was “a crossover day” in the way they were recording the numbers, he said. But he was unable to explain what would change.

Moderator Message:
Sorry to butt in, but please avoid political asides here. Go to PD for that. I've deleted the last sentence for you. I am as guilty as anyone btw. regards, dspp

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294501

Postby jackdaww » March 26th, 2020, 3:28 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:US markets have been rallying, could be a dead cat bounce, but Trump seems certain that the US can be opened up by Easter:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ?r=US&IR=T

This all feels wild, but the rally in the US markets get me wondering if Trump is all bluster or whether he has something up is sleeve that major market players are privy too.

Is there anything that the US can do that might make an Easter opening of the US possible?

Of the things that Trump might have, the most likely to me seems like a vaccine, perhaps one developed for another illnes which has been tested and approved that they are finding is 100% effective for c19.

Another potential solution would be if they believe they have some method to clean the air and furniture for big events like church services.

The UK and the rest of the world is fixated on isolation and flattening the curve and this seems the best option to me, but I am relying on what folk are telling me. I have no specialist knowledge in any of this. Does anyone have more specific knowledge.

Trump knows that if he screws up here he loses the election, but if he gets the US back to work by Easter he walks it.

Regards,


====================

canute thought he could stop the tide .... trump thinks he can stop the virus.....

:roll: :roll:

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294506

Postby dspp » March 26th, 2020, 3:49 pm

jackdaww wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:US markets have been rallying, could be a dead cat bounce, but Trump seems certain that the US can be opened up by Easter:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ?r=US&IR=T

This all feels wild, but the rally in the US markets get me wondering if Trump is all bluster or whether he has something up is sleeve that major market players are privy too.

Is there anything that the US can do that might make an Easter opening of the US possible?

Of the things that Trump might have, the most likely to me seems like a vaccine, perhaps one developed for another illnes which has been tested and approved that they are finding is 100% effective for c19.

Another potential solution would be if they believe they have some method to clean the air and furniture for big events like church services.

The UK and the rest of the world is fixated on isolation and flattening the curve and this seems the best option to me, but I am relying on what folk are telling me. I have no specialist knowledge in any of this. Does anyone have more specific knowledge.

Trump knows that if he screws up here he loses the election, but if he gets the US back to work by Easter he walks it.

Regards,


====================

canute thought he could stop the tide .... trump thinks he can stop the virus.....

:roll: :roll:


That is incorrect. Canute knew kings & princes could not stop the tide or many similar forces, but he was proving that point to his courtiers. Many, like many readers of history since, failed to get the point.

Trump is one such :(

regards, dspp

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294519

Postby odysseus2000 » March 26th, 2020, 4:51 pm

This is fascinating, a CEO of a ventilator company in full flight about how he is being treated badly, not getting orders, no help with this that and other.

Kinda of missed the point that its not about taking telephone calls, filling in web pages, but about going and banging on every politician door he can find, blitzing the media with a long list of what he needs and becoming such a pain that the politicians give him money to get rid of him and so they can say how they are supporting British industry:

https://twitter.com/mmaher70/status/124 ... 07426?s=20

Dyson, Musk et al, might make a mess of the contract they are getting, but they are using contacts, making waves and lots of noise and giving the impression that they really want to help.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294552

Postby PeterGray » March 26th, 2020, 6:31 pm

giving the impression that they really want to help

Quite. Musk certainly has form on this.

The news media are lapping up Dyson, who is clearly good at self promotion, but there's something a little odd in the govt showing no interest when contacted by an existing, experienced, medical parts manufacturer, when they are supposed to be buying respirators like no tomorrow. There are a several people in the business, or or working with people on the medical side who have developed easy to make respirator designs, others who have apparently offered, yet everyone is wetting themselves about a vacuum manufacturer.

Don't get me wrong, we need respirators badly, and anyone coming up with a workable solution should be welcomed. But if media celebrity fixation leads to what may well not the be best option being picked than we all lose out.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294557

Postby odysseus2000 » March 26th, 2020, 6:50 pm

PeterGray wrote:giving the impression that they really want to help

Quite. Musk certainly has form on this.

The news media are lapping up Dyson, who is clearly good at self promotion, but there's something a little odd in the govt showing no interest when contacted by an existing, experienced, medical parts manufacturer, when they are supposed to be buying respirators like no tomorrow. There are a several people in the business, or or working with people on the medical side who have developed easy to make respirator designs, others who have apparently offered, yet everyone is wetting themselves about a vacuum manufacturer.

Don't get me wrong, we need respirators badly, and anyone coming up with a workable solution should be welcomed. But if media celebrity fixation leads to what may well not the be best option being picked than we all lose out.


Yes, this was the point I was trying to make.

In times of trouble like this it is the duty of the CEO of a company that thinks it can help, to lobby politicians and media and make sure that he or she is heard and to have a long shopping list of what he or she can do and what they need.

It is not, imho, the job of the the CEO to be as quiet and humble as a church mouse, filling in web pages etc and then coming on a media show as though the politicians should have come to his door and been over flowing with gifts and money.

The world does not work like that.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294607

Postby servodude » March 26th, 2020, 10:25 pm

zico wrote:Italy may also be under-reporting. Town of Nembro near Bergamo, has had 158 deaths this year compared to 35 in comparable past years, but only 31 Covid-19 deaths. So that's 96 extra deaths from... something else?


could be under-reporting
- could be what happens when your health system is swamped

- sd

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#294612

Postby servodude » March 26th, 2020, 10:50 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
PeterGray wrote:giving the impression that they really want to help

Quite. Musk certainly has form on this.

The news media are lapping up Dyson, who is clearly good at self promotion, but there's something a little odd in the govt showing no interest when contacted by an existing, experienced, medical parts manufacturer, when they are supposed to be buying respirators like no tomorrow. There are a several people in the business, or or working with people on the medical side who have developed easy to make respirator designs, others who have apparently offered, yet everyone is wetting themselves about a vacuum manufacturer.

Don't get me wrong, we need respirators badly, and anyone coming up with a workable solution should be welcomed. But if media celebrity fixation leads to what may well not the be best option being picked than we all lose out.


Yes, this was the point I was trying to make.

In times of trouble like this it is the duty of the CEO of a company that thinks it can help, to lobby politicians and media and make sure that he or she is heard and to have a long shopping list of what he or she can do and what they need.

It is not, imho, the job of the the CEO to be as quiet and humble as a church mouse, filling in web pages etc and then coming on a media show as though the politicians should have come to his door and been over flowing with gifts and money.

The world does not work like that.

Regards,


It should be the job of the Govt to ensure that the best job gets done for the people
- Jim Dyson has enough engineering and manufacturing experience to realise there are more efficient and practical (and validated) ways to create ventilators quickly than starting from scratch

At best this sounds like a distraction; a big smoke and mirrors "look at what we're doing" cause that everyone can get behind; that could be a worthwhile exercise for morale

Alternatively if they have chosen this path without first having called every ventilator manufacturer in the country to see about increasing capacity, it might just be a cynical cash-in

- sd


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