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Musk endeavours
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Musk endeavours
Have GM stolen a march on Tesla?
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/23/gm ... ile-range/
If GM batteries have a life of a million miles and give a car a range of 600+ miles then Tesla's battery day may prove a bit "flat"
Once this range is achieved by competitors, it is going to be difficult to justify a price premium for Tesla's old fashioned battery design.
Obviously there is more to Tesla than just cars, but margins are getting tighter and profits seem even further away.
No doubt the true believers will prefer Tesla hype to GM hype. However this may be a sign that battery technology is developing fast and other car manufacturers may be able to leapfrog into longer range batteries without incurring the losses Tesla have made developing the current technology?
regards
Howard
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/23/gm ... ile-range/
If GM batteries have a life of a million miles and give a car a range of 600+ miles then Tesla's battery day may prove a bit "flat"
Once this range is achieved by competitors, it is going to be difficult to justify a price premium for Tesla's old fashioned battery design.
Obviously there is more to Tesla than just cars, but margins are getting tighter and profits seem even further away.
No doubt the true believers will prefer Tesla hype to GM hype. However this may be a sign that battery technology is developing fast and other car manufacturers may be able to leapfrog into longer range batteries without incurring the losses Tesla have made developing the current technology?
regards
Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours
Howard wrote:Have GM stolen a march on Tesla?
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/23/gm ... ile-range/
If GM batteries have a life of a million miles and give a car a range of 600+ miles then Tesla's battery day may prove a bit "flat"
Once this range is achieved by competitors, it is going to be difficult to justify a price premium for Tesla's old fashioned battery design.
Obviously there is more to Tesla than just cars, but margins are getting tighter and profits seem even further away.
No doubt the true believers will prefer Tesla hype to GM hype. However this may be a sign that battery technology is developing fast and other car manufacturers may be able to leapfrog into longer range batteries without incurring the losses Tesla have made developing the current technology?
regards
Howard
They say their new factory will be production ready by 2025.
Maybe, but 5 years is a very long time in technology and so we will have to see what comes out is available for sale.
Regards,
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Musk endeavours
odysseus2000 wrote:Howard wrote:Have GM stolen a march on Tesla?
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/23/gm ... ile-range/
If GM batteries have a life of a million miles and give a car a range of 600+ miles then Tesla's battery day may prove a bit "flat"
Once this range is achieved by competitors, it is going to be difficult to justify a price premium for Tesla's old fashioned battery design.
Obviously there is more to Tesla than just cars, but margins are getting tighter and profits seem even further away.
No doubt the true believers will prefer Tesla hype to GM hype. However this may be a sign that battery technology is developing fast and other car manufacturers may be able to leapfrog into longer range batteries without incurring the losses Tesla have made developing the current technology?
regards
Howard
They say their new factory will be production ready by 2025.
Maybe, but 5 years is a very long time in technology and so we will have to see what comes out is available for sale.
Regards,
Not quite. The sentence about production ready by 2025 has an "also" in it. I don't know the first thing about this kind of tech, but the effect of the also strongly implies that something will be available before then, and that something will be production ready in 2025. Maybe someone can fill in the gaps here as to what those 2 "somethings" are and the relevance to the GM vs Tesla debate.
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Re: Musk endeavours
dealtn wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:Howard wrote:Have GM stolen a march on Tesla?
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/23/gm ... ile-range/
If GM batteries have a life of a million miles and give a car a range of 600+ miles then Tesla's battery day may prove a bit "flat"
Once this range is achieved by competitors, it is going to be difficult to justify a price premium for Tesla's old fashioned battery design.
Obviously there is more to Tesla than just cars, but margins are getting tighter and profits seem even further away.
No doubt the true believers will prefer Tesla hype to GM hype. However this may be a sign that battery technology is developing fast and other car manufacturers may be able to leapfrog into longer range batteries without incurring the losses Tesla have made developing the current technology?
regards
Howard
They say their new factory will be production ready by 2025.
Maybe, but 5 years is a very long time in technology and so we will have to see what comes out is available for sale.
Regards,
Not quite. The sentence about production ready by 2025 has an "also" in it. I don't know the first thing about this kind of tech, but the effect of the also strongly implies that something will be available before then, and that something will be production ready in 2025. Maybe someone can fill in the gaps here as to what those 2 "somethings" are and the relevance to the GM vs Tesla debate.
In the automotive business it is traditional to say all manner of stuff and to loosely throw in dates. E.g. Dyson told the world that he would have a solid state battery and his car would do 600 miles per charge. Even after scrapping the whole project he recently reiterated these statements.
GM has a very long history is saying all manner of things and doing something else. E.g. they had the first battery electric cars, the EV1, which was the future, until they recalled them and crushed them, even having the law with them to make reluctant owners turn over their car to the crusher.
Regards,
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Re: Musk endeavours
odysseus2000 wrote:dealtn wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:
They say their new factory will be production ready by 2025.
Maybe, but 5 years is a very long time in technology and so we will have to see what comes out is available for sale.
Regards,
Not quite. The sentence about production ready by 2025 has an "also" in it. I don't know the first thing about this kind of tech, but the effect of the also strongly implies that something will be available before then, and that something will be production ready in 2025. Maybe someone can fill in the gaps here as to what those 2 "somethings" are and the relevance to the GM vs Tesla debate.
In the automotive business it is traditional to say all manner of stuff and to loosely throw in dates. E.g. Dyson told the world that he would have a solid state battery and his car would do 600 miles per charge. Even after scrapping the whole project he recently reiterated these statements.
GM has a very long history is saying all manner of things and doing something else. E.g. they had the first battery electric cars, the EV1, which was the future, until they recalled them and crushed them, even having the law with them to make reluctant owners turn over their car to the crusher.
Regards,
None of which answers what I was requesting.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Musk endeavours
odysseus2000 wrote:dealtn wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:
They say their new factory will be production ready by 2025.
Maybe, but 5 years is a very long time in technology and so we will have to see what comes out is available for sale.
Regards,
Not quite. The sentence about production ready by 2025 has an "also" in it. I don't know the first thing about this kind of tech, but the effect of the also strongly implies that something will be available before then, and that something will be production ready in 2025. Maybe someone can fill in the gaps here as to what those 2 "somethings" are and the relevance to the GM vs Tesla debate.
In the automotive business it is traditional to say all manner of stuff and to loosely throw in dates. E.g. Dyson told the world that he would have a solid state battery and his car would do 600 miles per charge. Even after scrapping the whole project he recently reiterated these statements.
GM has a very long history is saying all manner of things and doing something else. E.g. they had the first battery electric cars, the EV1, which was the future, until they recalled them and crushed them, even having the law with them to make reluctant owners turn over their car to the crusher.
Regards,
I don't think you are right Ody. Automotive manufacturers have tended to be pretty conservative. It is Tesla which have made all sorts of over-confident forecasts which they have failed to deliver and set dates which they haven't met.
Surely you aren't suggesting Dyson are an automotive company? They haven't sold a single car .
GM may not be the most successful car manufacturer in the world, but they do have a long history of achieving automotive goals.
Who knows the future? But it wouldn't be too rash to suggest that car batteries will be a lot different in the next few years? And probably lighter and with longer range?
regards
Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours
I don't think you are right Ody. Automotive manufacturers have tended to be pretty conservative. It is Tesla which have made all sorts of over-confident forecasts which they have failed to deliver and set dates which they haven't met.
Surely you aren't suggesting Dyson are an automotive company? They haven't sold a single car .
GM may not be the most successful car manufacturer in the world, but they do have a long history of achieving automotive goals.
Who knows the future? But it wouldn't be too rash to suggest that car batteries will be a lot different in the next few years? And probably lighter and with longer range?
regards
Howard
Well I had another guffaw about Automotive manufactures tending to be pretty conservative.
Most automotive manufactures can't hit critical dates which is why they rarely mention them and their claims are almost always massively inflated over what a production car can achieve in performance, range and depreciation.
Dyson was just a recent example of the sort of stuff that car makers tend to put out, not that Dyson has ever made a car but he was just a timely example of the sort of guff that comes out in the automotive space.
The problem with saying that car batteries will be a lot different in the next few years is that there may indeed be some advances in the laboratory, but going from something that works great on the test bench to something that works as a practical motor is a non-trivial industrial task that requires a lot of experiments. Then a lot of re-purposing of buildings or making of new buildings, hiring of staff, establishing supplies, ironing out all the production engineering problems etc.
It is possible that someone invents something that is so good, cheap and easy that it becomes the dominant storage technology almost over night, but it is a very low probability event.
Meanwhile Tesla have a big lead in a technology that works, are rapidly advancing that tech and are shortly going to have a battery day on it, while at the same moment have relationships with various battery makers and their own in-house production too and they are selling batteries both via their electric cars and also for storage.
Regards,
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Musk endeavours
Tesla bearish article:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/435016 ... this-niche
imho, the author hasn't a clue, but no doubt some will find their views amplified by the author.
Regards,
https://seekingalpha.com/article/435016 ... this-niche
imho, the author hasn't a clue, but no doubt some will find their views amplified by the author.
Regards,
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Re: Musk endeavours
odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla bearish article:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/435016 ... this-niche
imho, the author hasn't a clue, but no doubt some will find their views amplified by the author.
Regards,
I haven't got a clue either way. So what bits do you disagree with and why?
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Re: Musk endeavours
dealtn wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla bearish article:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/435016 ... this-niche
imho, the author hasn't a clue, but no doubt some will find their views amplified by the author.
Regards,
I haven't got a clue either way. So what bits do you disagree with and why?
Could I venture a hint? I think Ody may disagree with the article's overall conclusion which is:
"Reviews of surveys show that the inherent limitations of EVs make them a niche product heavily reliant on massive subsidies and specialized purchasers, particularly because there is no economic case for these vehicles. These considerations are borne out by the tiny market share of EVs, compared to total vehicle sales, and the decelerating growth of this market. Within this small and slowly growing market, recent experience in Europe shows that Tesla is rapidly losing market share now that other OEMs are forced to compete. This combination of factors make the projections of one prominent Tesla bull absurd, but they also mean that there is no way that the EV market or Tesla will achieve the growth or profitability needed to justify its current valuation."
I don't think a reasonable reader could disagree with the statement that EVs are a niche product with a tiny share of the auto market. Nor that they have been reliant on massive subsidies (although enthusiasts argue that ICE cars are helped by subsidies of the oil industry).
regards
Howard
PS I'd add that, even with subsidies, Tesla isn't profitable. And their action in cutting prices on all their models (except the Y) suggests that they might have a negative growth problem?
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Re: Musk endeavours
Howard wrote:dealtn wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla bearish article:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/435016 ... this-niche
imho, the author hasn't a clue, but no doubt some will find their views amplified by the author.
Regards,
I haven't got a clue either way. So what bits do you disagree with and why?
Could I venture a hint? I think Ody may disagree with the article's overall conclusion ...
Well his argument is rarely made, although with a thread over 200 pages it might have been. Most times a comment is along the lines of "...bears will agree but I think they are wrong...". When challenged what he disagrees with in a bearish article it is either silence or something tangential like "...the author is always bearish/has an axe to grind/doesn't understand secular change..."
It would be interesting to hear the bull case.
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Re: Musk endeavours
Modest investment in new battery technology by VW.
"Volkswagen is investing around one billion euros in a stake in the Chinese battery manufacturer Gotion High-Tech (also referred to as Guoxuan in other reports) and will become the company’s largest shareholder with 26 per cent. The investment is intended to secure the future demand for battery capacity for the Chinese electric vehicle models. VW stresses that it is the first international OEM to invest directly in a Chinese battery supplier. "
Plus another billion here:
"Volkswagen has officially confirmed its plan to increase its stake in JAC Volkswagen, its joint venture for electric mobility, and to invest around one billion euros in this. "
regards
Howard
https://www.electrive.com/2020/05/29/vw ... in-jac-jv/
PS Daimler are investing too. They claim they will soon be producing 500,000 batteries a year.
https://www.electrive.com/2020/05/27/da ... in-kamenz/
"Volkswagen is investing around one billion euros in a stake in the Chinese battery manufacturer Gotion High-Tech (also referred to as Guoxuan in other reports) and will become the company’s largest shareholder with 26 per cent. The investment is intended to secure the future demand for battery capacity for the Chinese electric vehicle models. VW stresses that it is the first international OEM to invest directly in a Chinese battery supplier. "
Plus another billion here:
"Volkswagen has officially confirmed its plan to increase its stake in JAC Volkswagen, its joint venture for electric mobility, and to invest around one billion euros in this. "
regards
Howard
https://www.electrive.com/2020/05/29/vw ... in-jac-jv/
PS Daimler are investing too. They claim they will soon be producing 500,000 batteries a year.
https://www.electrive.com/2020/05/27/da ... in-kamenz/
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Re: Musk endeavours
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/caugh ... full-speed
Not good, Tesla crashes at full speed into overturned truck.
John
Not good, Tesla crashes at full speed into overturned truck.
John
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Re: Musk endeavours
redsturgeon wrote:https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/caught-video-tesla-highway-drives-straight-overturned-truck-full-speed
Not good, Tesla crashes at full speed into overturned truck.
John
Horrible crash!
There is some tyre rubber or similar smoke goes up before the crash and then it seems to stop as if the driver or the AI was no longer braking and just continued straight in. The following traffic managed to brake so it is a bit puzzling as to what the driver was doing, but if the AI was on it clearly failed.
Regards,
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Re: Musk endeavours
Interesting video on 10 of the lowest cost electric cars currently available in the UK:
https://youtu.be/kUEAYIRm8Bs
I personally wouldn't want any of them, just too small for my needs, but for folk who live in urban areas and want to transition to cleaner vehicles they may be of interest, perhaps essential for many folk who live in London and need to get about, but imho more like a generic phone than an iPhone.
Regards,
https://youtu.be/kUEAYIRm8Bs
I personally wouldn't want any of them, just too small for my needs, but for folk who live in urban areas and want to transition to cleaner vehicles they may be of interest, perhaps essential for many folk who live in London and need to get about, but imho more like a generic phone than an iPhone.
Regards,
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Re: Musk endeavours
Chinese auto sales recovering, but still down on last year:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3579488-c ... ent=link-3
Regards,
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3579488-c ... ent=link-3
Regards,
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Re: Musk endeavours
redsturgeon wrote:https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/caught-video-tesla-highway-drives-straight-overturned-truck-full-speed
Not good, Tesla crashes at full speed into overturned truck.
John
Poor truck driver couldn't believe his eyes!
GS
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Re: Musk endeavours
GM said to be creating an electric van:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3580326-g ... ent=link-3
Regards,
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3580326-g ... ent=link-3
Regards,
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