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Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
ReformedCharacter
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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#323791

Postby ReformedCharacter » July 4th, 2020, 8:46 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
mao44
Are you a microbiologist or do you have any expertise in this field?


No, that is why I hope I have all of this wrong and I need someone who has knowledge to post as to why this is all wrong.

Regards,

Something of a rebuttal here:

Ignore the conspiracy theories: scientists know Covid-19 wasn't created in a lab

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... e-pandemic

RC

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#323824

Postby PeterGray » July 5th, 2020, 9:23 am

odysseus2000 wrote:There is building circumstantial evidence that C-19 is a genetically altered virus that escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan. This video gives some of the circumstantial evidence that suggests this is a modified virus that has escaped after being enhanced for the purposes of studying how to defeat a bat corona virus:



This is a well known bit of fake news spread by consipiracy theorists and people like Trump

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... 9-came-lab

There is no "building" evidence, just people spreading fake news on places like youtube.

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#323832

Postby Mike4 » July 5th, 2020, 10:11 am

PeterGray wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:There is building circumstantial evidence that C-19 is a genetically altered virus that escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan. This video gives some of the circumstantial evidence that suggests this is a modified virus that has escaped after being enhanced for the purposes of studying how to defeat a bat corona virus:



This is a well known bit of fake news spread by consipiracy theorists and people like Trump

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... 9-came-lab

There is no "building" evidence, just people spreading fake news on places like youtube.


The discovery of SARS-COV-2 in drainage water samples harvested in March 2019 in Barcelona is also a bit of a spanner in the works, suggesting to me it may not have originated in China. Or at least calls into question the timescales of the conspiracy theories.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-healt ... KKBN23X2HQ

I am surprised you partly condemn the conspiracy theories based on the channel used for communicating them though. There are plenty of examples throughout history of scientific opinions being suppressed because they run against received wisdom then turning out to be correct. Better to see these conspiracy theories debunked by proper research and peer review rather than dismiss them based on the method used to put them forward. Agreed some are too ludicrous e.g. the 5G thing to deserve investigation, but others e.g. the assertions about the furin cleavage site deserve proper investigation rather than peremptory dismissal, in my view as a layman.

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#323843

Postby odysseus2000 » July 5th, 2020, 10:47 am

Mike4 wrote:
PeterGray wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:There is building circumstantial evidence that C-19 is a genetically altered virus that escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan. This video gives some of the circumstantial evidence that suggests this is a modified virus that has escaped after being enhanced for the purposes of studying how to defeat a bat corona virus:



This is a well known bit of fake news spread by consipiracy theorists and people like Trump

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... 9-came-lab

There is no "building" evidence, just people spreading fake news on places like youtube.


The discovery of SARS-COV-2 in drainage water samples harvested in March 2019 in Barcelona is also a bit of a spanner in the works, suggesting to me it may not have originated in China. Or at least calls into question the timescales of the conspiracy theories.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-healt ... KKBN23X2HQ

I am surprised you partly condemn the conspiracy theories based on the channel used for communicating them though. There are plenty of examples throughout history of scientific opinions being suppressed because they run against received wisdom then turning out to be correct. Better to see these conspiracy theories debunked by proper research and peer review rather than dismiss them based on the method used to put them forward. Agreed some are too ludicrous e.g. the 5G thing to deserve investigation, but others e.g. the assertions about the furin cleavage site deserve proper investigation rather than peremptory dismissal, in my view as a layman.


I concur. The economic impact of this virus depends on how much the scientific establishment who advise the politicians are correct in their identification of its origin.

What I find difficult to follow is why the rebuttal arguments, such as that in the Guardian, do not focus on the science. E.g. is the "gain of function" research cited by the "conspiracy" folk something that is done or not? The Guardian rebuttal says they have found similar structures in other virus not that it could not have been done or that there are ways to be sure that this was not spliced in. Similarly for the Furin sites. If the reports that the virus was found much earlier a long way from China are correct then what does this tell us from a science perspective about the virus.

In any war, especially one with huge economic impact, it is vital to understand the enemy, know where the enemy is and find ways to kill them. If c19 is purely a mutation as the main stream science says, then one can argue that the limited lockdown was the best way to go, reducing the spread but maintaining as much economic activity as possible. However, if this is an escaped virus, tailored to human cells then the scientific advise has been flawed and far more draconian measures should have been implemented to safeguard the economy and human life.

In the best of all economic futures for the pandemic it will mutate and become weaker and defensive weapons will be developed that render its effects minimal. If however, we are dealing with an escaped virus, tailored to human cells, the chance that this issue could continue for a long time goes up and business like travel are very likely un-investible.

We should get a good steer on the economic impact over the next two weeks following the opening of pubs and such. If we see big spikes in infections causing lots more lock downs the odds of an economic depression rise, but if we don't see such things the odds that we have seen the worst of this pandemic rise and business like travel look more like opportunities than disasters from an investment perspective.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#323847

Postby dealtn » July 5th, 2020, 10:56 am

odysseus2000 wrote:We should get a good steer on the economic impact over the next two weeks following the opening of pubs and such. If we see big spikes in infections causing lots more lock downs the odds of an economic depression rise, but if we don't see such things the odds that we have seen the worst of this pandemic rise and business like travel look more like opportunities than disasters from an investment perspective.



We aren't the first country/economy to do this. Are you suggesting we need to wait because there is something "special" about the UK? What's wrong with other comparable evidence from other countries/economies further down the Covid experience "path" than us?

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#323853

Postby odysseus2000 » July 5th, 2020, 11:12 am

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:We should get a good steer on the economic impact over the next two weeks following the opening of pubs and such. If we see big spikes in infections causing lots more lock downs the odds of an economic depression rise, but if we don't see such things the odds that we have seen the worst of this pandemic rise and business like travel look more like opportunities than disasters from an investment perspective.



We aren't the first country/economy to do this. Are you suggesting we need to wait because there is something "special" about the UK? What's wrong with other comparable evidence from other countries/economies further down the Covid experience "path" than us?


The problem with extrapolations from other countries is the novel nature of this virus. It does not, at least as I understand it, behave consistently across different racial group or climates.

Some research suggests some racial groups are more vulnerable than others, vitamin D levels being one suggested reason. Another factor is how vulnerable is the virus to UV. Some research suggests the virus does not survive long in day light, suggesting that behaviour at night with low UV exposure may be more likely to lead to spread than the great beach parties that have happened in the UK and elsewhere.

The next two weeks should tell us a lot about the economic impact of c19 in the UK going forwards. If the virus has similarities to flu then the summer should have the lowest number of cases. If we get a lot now that suggests that the winter will be worse.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#323854

Postby Mike4 » July 5th, 2020, 11:12 am

It's a curious thing, human nature. The scientific advice in itself is rarely a consensus and I find the govt's 'guided by the science' mantra deeply disturbing as it hooks into the layman's trust in doctors and scientists always knowing best, whereas in actual fact their opinions are often dressed up and put forwards as facts.

There is plenty of dispute about the furin cleavage site and and 'gain of function' fiddling and I could put up a youtube video (if I can find it) by a qualified doctor putting forward exactly these hypotheses in all seriousness back in April. The news article debunking states there is NO evidence that this virus is man made but frankly, this sounds to me like a case of the lady doth protest too much as some bloke once wrote. There is plenty of evidence that deserves close scrutiny rather than peremptory dismissal.

An equally valid question would be to spin the statement around and ask the opposite; what is the evidence that this virus so different from any other originated naturally?

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#323860

Postby dealtn » July 5th, 2020, 11:43 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:We should get a good steer on the economic impact over the next two weeks following the opening of pubs and such. If we see big spikes in infections causing lots more lock downs the odds of an economic depression rise, but if we don't see such things the odds that we have seen the worst of this pandemic rise and business like travel look more like opportunities than disasters from an investment perspective.



We aren't the first country/economy to do this. Are you suggesting we need to wait because there is something "special" about the UK? What's wrong with other comparable evidence from other countries/economies further down the Covid experience "path" than us?


The problem with extrapolations from other countries is the novel nature of this virus. It does not, at least as I understand it, behave consistently across different racial group or climates.

Some research suggests some racial groups are more vulnerable than others, vitamin D levels being one suggested reason. Another factor is how vulnerable is the virus to UV. Some research suggests the virus does not survive long in day light, suggesting that behaviour at night with low UV exposure may be more likely to lead to spread than the great beach parties that have happened in the UK and elsewhere.

The next two weeks should tell us a lot about the economic impact of c19 in the UK going forwards. If the virus has similarities to flu then the summer should have the lowest number of cases. If we get a lot now that suggests that the winter will be worse.

Regards,


So you are talking about investing (or not) in UK travel then when you wrote "We should get a good steer on the economic impact over the next two weeks following the opening of pubs and such. If we see big spikes in infections causing lots more lock downs the odds of an economic depression rise, but if we don't see such things the odds that we have seen the worst of this pandemic rise and business like travel look more like opportunities than disasters from an investment perspective."

That wasn't clear. Do you have many travel investments in mind when you are talking about the UK as I suppose many of the major listed ones involve international travel etc.?

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#323871

Postby odysseus2000 » July 5th, 2020, 12:36 pm

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
We aren't the first country/economy to do this. Are you suggesting we need to wait because there is something "special" about the UK? What's wrong with other comparable evidence from other countries/economies further down the Covid experience "path" than us?


The problem with extrapolations from other countries is the novel nature of this virus. It does not, at least as I understand it, behave consistently across different racial group or climates.

Some research suggests some racial groups are more vulnerable than others, vitamin D levels being one suggested reason. Another factor is how vulnerable is the virus to UV. Some research suggests the virus does not survive long in day light, suggesting that behaviour at night with low UV exposure may be more likely to lead to spread than the great beach parties that have happened in the UK and elsewhere.

The next two weeks should tell us a lot about the economic impact of c19 in the UK going forwards. If the virus has similarities to flu then the summer should have the lowest number of cases. If we get a lot now that suggests that the winter will be worse.

Regards,


So you are talking about investing (or not) in UK travel then when you wrote "We should get a good steer on the economic impact over the next two weeks following the opening of pubs and such. If we see big spikes in infections causing lots more lock downs the odds of an economic depression rise, but if we don't see such things the odds that we have seen the worst of this pandemic rise and business like travel look more like opportunities than disasters from an investment perspective."

That wasn't clear. Do you have many travel investments in mind when you are talking about the UK as I suppose many of the major listed ones involve international travel etc.?


In terms of UK travel, things like coach & bus firms. E.g. Stagecoach hight in January was over 160p, they are now circa 60p. Other ideas would be UK hotel chains, property companies specialising in leasing to hotels, breweries with pub portfolios in tourists spots etc. Many of these are specialised niche types of UK business that may rally strongly if we get through this next two weeks without any lockdowns and vice versa.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#323884

Postby odysseus2000 » July 5th, 2020, 2:54 pm

This is background information in todays media on the Wuhan lab and notes:

But after recent pressure from the WHO, China is to launch an investigation into claims the the virus could have leaked from the Wuhan laboratory.

The institute - the largest infectious disease lab in the world - is alleged to have been carrying out high-risk experiments to increase the infectivity of coronaviruses in an attempt to understand the mechanisms that might cause a pandemic.

The newspaper says researchers collected hundreds of coronavirus samples from remote regions of China and brought them back to the city.


https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12034764/ ... rce=pushly

I have no idea if any of this is true, nor if any compensation could be claimed. As far as I am aware neither Russia or Ukraine paid compensation to other states following Chernobyl which was classed as an accident, although money was paid to their own citizens.

From what I understand there are currently no suggestions that China deliberately released c19 and even if it did come from Wuhan everything currently points towards an accidental release.

There are certainly groups who believe that China has a liability, even before any link with the Wuhan lab has been proven or dis-proven, but my very limited understanding of International law is that a liability would require a deliberate act, such as an invasion before laws would require payment of reparations etc. I may be wrong of this so if anyone knows more, please post.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#324269

Postby odysseus2000 » July 7th, 2020, 10:48 am

Boohoo share price hammered after allegations that it was treating its garment workers very badly and paying them about half the minimum wage and that they were being forced to work during c19 even if they felt unwell:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewbusb ... 2cf274a374

There are all manner of uncertainties with this, not least my surprise that there was garment production still happening in any scale in the UK.

The sell off has taken the share price from over 400 3 day ago to 265 as I type.

c19 is a new avenue for folk investigating working conditions in the UK that may impact other business. If the allegations are correct then Boohoo will have to fix them within in the context of the new c19 working practices or if the allegations are false, prove beyond doubt that they are not involved.

Any favourable outcome may see Boohoo shares recover quickly and vice versa.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#324286

Postby redsturgeon » July 7th, 2020, 11:33 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Boohoo share price hammered after allegations that it was treating its garment workers very badly and paying them about half the minimum wage and that they were being forced to work during c19 even if they felt unwell:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewbusb ... 2cf274a374

There are all manner of uncertainties with this, not least my surprise that there was garment production still happening in any scale in the UK.

The sell off has taken the share price from over 400 3 day ago to 265 as I type.

c19 is a new avenue for folk investigating working conditions in the UK that may impact other business. If the allegations are correct then Boohoo will have to fix them within in the context of the new c19 working practices or if the allegations are false, prove beyond doubt that they are not involved.

Any favourable outcome may see Boohoo shares recover quickly and vice versa.

Regards,


Yes Leicester has been known for garment manufacture for many years. BooHoo were able to use UK manufacturing to reduce lead times and therefore gain a step on competitors. Misguided is a similar company doing this.

However the issue is, that to produce items such as their best selling minskirt which retails at £5, they have to be forcing prices from the manufacturers which almost ensure that working conditions and wages for workers are not complaint with UK law.

John

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#324332

Postby odysseus2000 » July 7th, 2020, 1:32 pm

Yes Leicester has been known for garment manufacture for many years. BooHoo were able to use UK manufacturing to reduce lead times and therefore gain a step on competitors. Misguided is a similar company doing this.

However the issue is, that to produce items such as their best selling minskirt which retails at £5, they have to be forcing prices from the manufacturers which almost ensure that working conditions and wages for workers are not complaint with UK law.

John


Yikes!

The sort of situation that could become a political football very quickly.

The shares have rallied from the low of 256 to 289p as I type, so for the moment traders seem to think there is a way out for BooHoo, but very risky based on the above analysis.

Thank you,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#324381

Postby Wuffle » July 7th, 2020, 4:28 pm

'However the issue is, that to produce items such as their best selling minskirt which retails at £5, they have to be forcing prices from the manufacturers which almost ensure that working conditions and wages for workers are not complaint with UK law.'

Another feature of this is the home delivery, which is an area that I am familiar with.
It is pretty much the same horror story in terms of employment law, working hours compliance, that kind of thing.

W.

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#324396

Postby odysseus2000 » July 7th, 2020, 4:56 pm

Another feature of this is the home delivery, which is an area that I am familiar with.
It is pretty much the same horror story in terms of employment law, working hours compliance, that kind of thing.

W.


Yes, the couriers seem to work hard.

One of the benefits of c19 is that they are much more prepared to leave packages at my door. I have a note on the door that asks them to please leave packages and mostly they do which saves us both time and I don't have to mess with the electronic pads that sometimes are awkward.

One of the drivers told me that everything is "gps-ed" and so long as they walk to the delivery address door and tap their electronic pad, the companies seem happy for stuff to be left. Some times if my dog is asleep the way I find out something has come is an email saying the packages has been delivered!

Overall the service is excellent, and several drivers are regulars so at least for them the working conditions seem acceptable.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#324519

Postby odysseus2000 » July 8th, 2020, 8:42 am

BooHoo have put up a defence which reads well (as all such things do, making decisions upon words not without risk) and appointed a QC to lead a review:

https://www.investegate.co.uk/boohoo-gr ... 00053701S/

For now the share price keeps falling.

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#324831

Postby odysseus2000 » July 9th, 2020, 12:42 pm

Boots put the boot into their employees:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/12075065 ... rce=pushly

Whether this is just the beginning of mass layouts or a company in panic mode is hard to know. Now 5 days into the opening of pubs the media reports are as usually confusing with some saying rise in infections, others saying no rise and there are strong geographical factors with the West Midlands and Wales showing large infection rates. An added trouble is that it is hard to know if the measurements in different areas are using the same metrics. We should get some steer from whether there are more lockdowns, something that can not easily be massaged away in the data.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#324835

Postby dealtn » July 9th, 2020, 12:49 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Boots put the boot into their employees:



Boots announced a strategic review in May 2019, and broadly speaking remained open throughout the Covid-19 lockdown, and this is the result of that review.

Now while there is a macro effect of the pandemic on the High Street I am not sure how much of today's decision can be put at the door of Covid. An acceleration of what might have happened anyway perhaps.

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#324846

Postby odysseus2000 » July 9th, 2020, 1:42 pm

Boots seem to be making the most of c19:

https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1 ... 84192?s=20

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

#324932

Postby zico » July 9th, 2020, 6:53 pm

Interesting to see the difference between the various stock markets to the pandemic.
Seems that Far East, USA and China have rebounded much more quickly than Europe and UK.

I'm not surprised about Far East and China because they've got previous experience of dealing with epidemics, governments are more efficient in getting their population to do what's required, and probably have a healthier population than western countries.
Similarly Europe and UK aren't doing as well because they don't have the factors listed above.
The real outlier seems to be the USA, which has an unhealthy population plus an utterly shambolic response to Covid and an accelerating number of cases, but despite this, the NASDAQ index actually hit an all-time high during the pandemic, which I simply can't understand.

The coming second wave of infections and deaths in USA must now be obvious to everyone, but as far as the Dow Jones is concerned, it still seems nothing to worry about.


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