Mike4 wrote:PeterGray wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:There is building circumstantial evidence that C-19 is a genetically altered virus that escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan. This video gives some of the circumstantial evidence that suggests this is a modified virus that has escaped after being enhanced for the purposes of studying how to defeat a bat corona virus:
This is a well known bit of fake news spread by consipiracy theorists and people like Trump
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... 9-came-labThere is no "building" evidence, just people spreading fake news on places like youtube.
The discovery of SARS-COV-2 in drainage water samples harvested in March 2019 in Barcelona is also a bit of a spanner in the works, suggesting to me it may not have originated in China. Or at least calls into question the timescales of the conspiracy theories.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-healt ... KKBN23X2HQI am surprised you partly condemn the conspiracy theories based on the channel used for communicating them though. There are plenty of examples throughout history of scientific opinions being suppressed because they run against received wisdom then turning out to be correct. Better to see these conspiracy theories debunked by proper research and peer review rather than dismiss them based on the method used to put them forward. Agreed some are too ludicrous e.g. the 5G thing to deserve investigation, but others e.g. the assertions about the furin cleavage site deserve proper investigation rather than peremptory dismissal, in my view as a layman.
I concur. The economic impact of this virus depends on how much the scientific establishment who advise the politicians are correct in their identification of its origin.
What I find difficult to follow is why the rebuttal arguments, such as that in the Guardian, do not focus on the science. E.g. is the "gain of function" research cited by the "conspiracy" folk something that is done or not? The Guardian rebuttal says they have found similar structures in other virus not that it could not have been done or that there are ways to be sure that this was not spliced in. Similarly for the Furin sites. If the reports that the virus was found much earlier a long way from China are correct then what does this tell us from a science perspective about the virus.
In any war, especially one with huge economic impact, it is vital to understand the enemy, know where the enemy is and find ways to kill them. If c19 is purely a mutation as the main stream science says, then one can argue that the limited lockdown was the best way to go, reducing the spread but maintaining as much economic activity as possible. However, if this is an escaped virus, tailored to human cells then the scientific advise has been flawed and far more draconian measures should have been implemented to safeguard the economy and human life.
In the best of all economic futures for the pandemic it will mutate and become weaker and defensive weapons will be developed that render its effects minimal. If however, we are dealing with an escaped virus, tailored to human cells, the chance that this issue could continue for a long time goes up and business like travel are very likely un-investible.
We should get a good steer on the economic impact over the next two weeks following the opening of pubs and such. If we see big spikes in infections causing lots more lock downs the odds of an economic depression rise, but if we don't see such things the odds that we have seen the worst of this pandemic rise and business like travel look more like opportunities than disasters from an investment perspective.
Regards,