Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to SalvorHardin,Anonymous,johnhemming,Anonymous,Rhyd6, for Donating to support the site

Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
dealtn
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1520
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 36 times
Been thanked: 508 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#324624

Postby dealtn » July 8th, 2020, 4:52 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Things could change but for now many people who had the cash sitting around and invested in solar roofs are saying they are getting better returns than from the banks which in of it self is a remarkable state of affairs.


Are you sure?

Put Capital in a bank account, and you can get v100% of the Capital back.

Invest Capital in Solar Panels, how do you get your Capital back? You need more than a better "interest rate" to make this comparison work.

What's the business case?

scrumpyjack
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1080
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:15 am
Has thanked: 61 times
Been thanked: 409 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#324632

Postby scrumpyjack » July 8th, 2020, 5:20 pm

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Things could change but for now many people who had the cash sitting around and invested in solar roofs are saying they are getting better returns than from the banks which in of it self is a remarkable state of affairs.


Are you sure?

Put Capital in a bank account, and you can get v100% of the Capital back.

Invest Capital in Solar Panels, how do you get your Capital back? You need more than a better "interest rate" to make this comparison work.

What's the business case?


I put in solar panels 9 years ago, cost £10,500. The payments covered the costs in 6 years, leaving 19 years of over £2,000 pa cash coming in RPI indexed and tax free.

They cut the returns shortly after I put them in, but the panels are a lot cheaper now.

It was a brilliant scheme for helping Chinese companies build up their solar panel manufacturing industry whilst lumbering UK consumers with higher electricity bills to pay for it.

dealtn
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1520
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 36 times
Been thanked: 508 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#324635

Postby dealtn » July 8th, 2020, 5:27 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:
dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Things could change but for now many people who had the cash sitting around and invested in solar roofs are saying they are getting better returns than from the banks which in of it self is a remarkable state of affairs.


Are you sure?

Put Capital in a bank account, and you can get v100% of the Capital back.

Invest Capital in Solar Panels, how do you get your Capital back? You need more than a better "interest rate" to make this comparison work.

What's the business case?


I put in solar panels 9 years ago, cost £10,500. The payments covered the costs in 6 years, leaving 19 years of over £2,000 pa cash coming in RPI indexed and tax free.

They cut the returns shortly after I put them in, but the panels are a lot cheaper now.

It was a brilliant scheme for helping Chinese companies build up their solar panel manufacturing industry whilst lumbering UK consumers with higher electricity bills to pay for it.


Fair enough but what is the current situation, does anyone know, as the post I replied to said "...but for now..."?

Savings rates available at banks are obviously lower, but so is the "tariff" on these schemes too (as far as I am aware).

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2663
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 735 times
Been thanked: 402 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#324641

Postby odysseus2000 » July 8th, 2020, 5:46 pm

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Things could change but for now many people who had the cash sitting around and invested in solar roofs are saying they are getting better returns than from the banks which in of it self is a remarkable state of affairs.


Are you sure?

Put Capital in a bank account, and you can get v100% of the Capital back.

Invest Capital in Solar Panels, how do you get your Capital back? You need more than a better "interest rate" to make this comparison work.

What's the business case?


I did say returns, meaning income on the capital, but lets look at some numbers which necessarily involves all manner of approximations and long time scales which I discuss later and I may have got some of the sums wrong so please correct if so.

A 2019 4kW system costs, according to the article below, around £6800 and with Feed in Tariffs (FIT) returns about 6.5% per year, giving a break even in about 13 years, but as FIT has been replaced with the Smart Export Guarantee with lower payments this given a break even of 17 years and a return of 4.58%

https://greenbusinesswatch.co.uk/uk-dom ... turns-2019

So for 4 kW systems at £6800 with a life of 30 years, beyond year 17 the system is paid for so that the buyer has their £6800 back, and then the income comes to the owner of the system. If this is compounded over the remaining life of the system of 13 years, then the final amount after 30 years is 6800x(1.0485)**13 = £12,171, or a gain of £5371.

iF however, the money was invested at 0.5% over 30 years, then the return would be 6800x(1.005)**30 = £7898, or a gain of £1097.0

Clearly there are huge assumptions here over interest rates, Export Guarantees, electric bills etc etc ...

Folk have suggested that installers are desperate and are offering incentives which could reduce the initial costs or spread it interest free over a few years etc.

Still unless my sums are wrong the returns are better than what one can typically get on deposit and in some cases returns are negative, in other accounts larger. One can chase ones tail trying to think through all options, but as it is, roof top solar looks attractive compared to bank interest for someone intending to live in the same house for 30 years, or as an additional value added if it is proposed to sell the property.

Regards,

scrumpyjack
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1080
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:15 am
Has thanked: 61 times
Been thanked: 409 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#324644

Postby scrumpyjack » July 8th, 2020, 6:06 pm

Those figures assume no maintenance costs and no performance degradation. My inverter failed after 3.5 years but was replaced under guarantee. I doubt their life expectancy is anything like 30 years, nor even half that.

dealtn
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1520
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 36 times
Been thanked: 508 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#324650

Postby dealtn » July 8th, 2020, 6:22 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:... or as an additional value added if it is proposed to sell the property.



I would seriously question that assumption too.

Some people are happy to buy a house with panels etc. in place, but many are put off by them.

My brother is an estate agent, and particularly in "difficult" times you really don't want to have things that put off potential buyers. In particular buyers are put off by sellers "insisting" that panels are an investment, and their value should be reflected in the asking price.

Anecdotally he would say identical houses one with, one without, are worth the same. The "extra premium" of having more interested buyers for a house without, offsetting the "extra premium" of the "panel investment". That would apply to the pre-Covid market, so may be even worse now, although (again anecdotally) he thinks the market is just as strong now than pre-Covid. Prices are about the same (and if anything in his area likely going higher as more than before are looking at "moving out" into the suburbs now the acceptance of home working to both employers and employees makes inner-city and shorter commutes less relevant - although that is worth a thread in its own right!).

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2663
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 735 times
Been thanked: 402 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#324651

Postby odysseus2000 » July 8th, 2020, 6:24 pm

Guarantees for solar panels are 80% of rated output at 25 years with other component warranties of different lengths:

https://www.renewableenergyhub.co.uk/ma ... ar-panels/

Regards,

dealtn
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1520
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 36 times
Been thanked: 508 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#324660

Postby dealtn » July 8th, 2020, 6:48 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Guarantees for solar panels are 80% of rated output at 25 years with other component warranties of different lengths:

https://www.renewableenergyhub.co.uk/ma ... ar-panels/

Regards,


Some of which are as little as 1 year according to that link!

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5437
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 4513 times
Been thanked: 1551 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#324707

Postby dspp » July 8th, 2020, 9:54 pm

Mercedes EQC showing Tesla how it is done .... not

"“Too late, too expensive, and too boring,” Speich said about the [Mercedes] EQC, which has had less-than-desirable sales figures," ........ "In 2019, only 397 units of the EQC were sold, and as of May 28, 2020, an additional 276 have been sold. The combination of these two figures is indicative of less than 700 units sold since the vehicle’s launch in late 2019."

https://www.teslarati.com/mercedes-benz ... -momentum/

- dspp

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2663
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 735 times
Been thanked: 402 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#324761

Postby odysseus2000 » July 9th, 2020, 8:50 am

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Guarantees for solar panels are 80% of rated output at 25 years with other component warranties of different lengths:

https://www.renewableenergyhub.co.uk/ma ... ar-panels/

Regards,


Some of which are as little as 1 year according to that link!


Solar panels have no moving parts and they and their fixings are remarkably resilient to the English weather. I have so far never seen one blown off a roof.

Inverters have to handle a lot of current and get hot and these seem to be the most unreliable part of current solar systems. However, as engineers see the failure modes they will adapt the design and it is likely that most of the issues will be solved. Some companies are now getting much better longevity from their inverters than early units.

Given the politicians concerns about greenhouse gases and that new houses are being built with no gas connection it seems likely that unless there is some new development in energy technology, that all houses will move towards 100% electrical utilities. This likely development has so far not got into the minds of the general public who see many things as new and unreliable generating some irrational fears and concerns. At some point things will change and the reduction in over heads, increase in reliability of energy supplies via solar and storage will become desirable features to any building. Most new houses already come with solar photo voltaic generation and it seems very likely that this trend will expand into the existing housing stock, although utilities are doing everything they can to protect their turf, they look to me like the advisors to King Canute who were sure he could command the tide to reverse, but he could not.

Meanwhile, new utilities such as Tesla, are slowly setting up shop in the UK, slowly putting their dagger at the throats of the incumbent legacy utilities. Politicians may protect legacy utilities, but the tide of wanting to reduce co2 looks very difficult to turn, no matter what the advisors to these King Canute like to say.

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2663
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 735 times
Been thanked: 402 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#324762

Postby odysseus2000 » July 9th, 2020, 8:53 am

Musk still confident that Tesla are close to self driving:

https://www.renewableenergyhub.co.uk/ma ... ar-panels/

Regards,

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5437
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 4513 times
Been thanked: 1551 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#324768

Postby dspp » July 9th, 2020, 9:14 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
Inverters have to handle a lot of current and get hot and these seem to be the most unreliable part of current solar systems. However, as engineers see the failure modes they will adapt the design and it is likely that most of the issues will be solved. Some companies are now getting much better longevity from their inverters than early units.


The most common cause of failure in inverters used to be the capacitors. For all sorts of reasons this is much less so, and inverters are increasingly much more reliable.

regards, dspp

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2663
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 735 times
Been thanked: 402 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#324772

Postby odysseus2000 » July 9th, 2020, 9:22 am

Interesting 10 minute video on Tesla covering Chinese sales, Panasonic comments, Munroe analysis etc:

https://youtu.be/Y4QAATyWGuQ

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2663
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 735 times
Been thanked: 402 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#325037

Postby odysseus2000 » July 10th, 2020, 8:29 am

Will Tesla rally if it goes into the S&P? These guys cite Yahoo as an example of what can happen. Whether the recent rally has been folk pre-positioning such that we may get a sell the news reaction is possible, but I have no idea what will happen if the inclusion happens:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3590095-t ... ent=link-3

Regards,

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5437
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 4513 times
Been thanked: 1551 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#325062

Postby dspp » July 10th, 2020, 9:31 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Will Tesla rally if it goes into the S&P? These guys cite Yahoo as an example of what can happen. Whether the recent rally has been folk pre-positioning such that we may get a sell the news reaction is possible, but I have no idea what will happen if the inclusion happens:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3590095-t ... ent=link-3

Regards,


I'm not sure if what we have been observing recently is because of the S&P500 assumed-success, or because of intrinsic performance. I expect the next few months will make it clear. I read that TSLA would enter the S&P at about #25, quite a jolt if it were to take place.

regards, dspp

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2663
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 735 times
Been thanked: 402 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#325183

Postby odysseus2000 » July 10th, 2020, 2:34 pm

dspp wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Will Tesla rally if it goes into the S&P? These guys cite Yahoo as an example of what can happen. Whether the recent rally has been folk pre-positioning such that we may get a sell the news reaction is possible, but I have no idea what will happen if the inclusion happens:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3590095-t ... ent=link-3

Regards,


I'm not sure if what we have been observing recently is because of the S&P500 assumed-success, or because of intrinsic performance. I expect the next few months will make it clear. I read that TSLA would enter the S&P at about #25, quite a jolt if it were to take place.

regards, dspp


Tesla blew past a lot of the analysts estimates for the last quarter, which the big fund managers likely take some note of, so I am slightly inclined to think that they did not pre-buy and that there could still be some kind of positive reaction if the S&P inclusion goes ahead, but this is pure speculation on my part.

There is also the coming news with battery day and Musk comments about the self driving capability being near. Shorts having been burned a time or two are likely wary of being burned again by either of these two potential positive news events or some other less expected positive announcement. The balance of forces now looks to have see-sawed from the bears who at one time got rewarded for misses etc, to the bulls who have been rewarded with beats on expectations and good news.

Meanwhile there is a ton of uncertainty over c19 and also election rhetoric beginning to build and I am seeing quite a bit of anti-china rhetoric coming from Farage and others that may influence some, but it is now hard imho to buy any manufactured product that does not have a lot of Chinese labour and/or product in it.

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2663
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 735 times
Been thanked: 402 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#325277

Postby odysseus2000 » July 10th, 2020, 7:50 pm

Wow!

Tesla equity is the strongest large cap equity I can ever remember.

Every time I think it has run its course and sell I have to buy it back again.

Now into animal spirits mode and there is a lot of reasons for me to feel this isn't overdone.

I told prudence to shut up and I am now back to having Tesla as my biggest position.

It could all go wrong, but to have liked the stock and then miss this rally was sitting bad with me.

I don't want to encourage anyone to do anything with regard to trading/investing. I am simple commenting on what I see as an amazing equity.

I can afford to lose all my money in Tesla, although I wouldn't like it, and my actions are based upon accepting that could happen and that I am prepared to live with the risk and also that I could also at any moment if something changes my mind.

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2663
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 735 times
Been thanked: 402 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#325298

Postby odysseus2000 » July 10th, 2020, 9:08 pm

Tesla closed up over 11%.

Does anyone remember the "Funding Secured Tweet" take Tesla private at $420 (7-Aug-2018) and the media was a buzz with folk saying it wasn't worth anything like that and today it closes at $1548, 3.68x the 'impossible' $420 price.

Regards,

Lootman
Lemon Half
Posts: 7564
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 56 times
Been thanked: 1272 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#325299

Postby Lootman » July 10th, 2020, 9:11 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla closed up over 11%.

Does anyone remember the "Funding Secured Tweet" take Tesla private at $420 (7-Aug-2018) and the media was a buzz with folk saying it wasn't worth anything like that and today it closes at $1548, 3.68x the 'impossible' $420 price.

Yes, at the time it was said that the SEC was going to investigate Musk for trying to ramp the stock price. I am going out on a limb now to say that investigations is probably dormant.

Of course the $420 price level was a bit of an in joke given his on-screen pot smoking fun.

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5437
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 4513 times
Been thanked: 1551 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#325314

Postby dspp » July 10th, 2020, 11:14 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla closed up over 11%.

Does anyone remember the "Funding Secured Tweet" take Tesla private at $420 (7-Aug-2018) and the media was a buzz with folk saying it wasn't worth anything like that and today it closes at $1548, 3.68x the 'impossible' $420 price.

Regards,


At these prices TSLA is even getting close to offsetting my HUR losses !

Amazing.

Regards, dspp


Return to “Macro and Global Topics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests