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New World Order.....post China

The Big Picture Place
ReformedCharacter
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Re: New World Order.....post China

#302922

Postby ReformedCharacter » April 24th, 2020, 12:48 pm

PeterGray wrote:If human life is incapable of organising its survival on their home planet, why on earth is it so important to preserve it?

Why should the question of 'why on earth is it so important to preserve it?' have any relevance to whether human life is capable or incapable of organising its own survival on their home planet?

Does the capability or incapability have any bearing on whether or not it is worth preserving? Scaling things down from the level of humanity to the individual, if you become ill with Covid 19 and should it become apparent that you need hospitalisation, would you ask the same question - whether it is worth the medical staff trying to save your life because you personally are incapable of organising your own survival?

RC

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Re: New World Order.....post China

#325396

Postby gbjbaanb » July 11th, 2020, 2:28 pm

Anyway, back to whether we should be investing our hard-earned in China.

I read a while back that Japan is paying companies (as part of its bail-out) to move away from China. $2bn is being spent on that.

Today I read that Apple is moving its iPhone production away from China too, over the next 3 years they will be made in india instead.

I think a lot more will be heading that way too. Now whether that will result in a significant shift in Chinese growth remains to be seen, it's possibly China has already developed enough that its internal and subsidiary markets are sufficient, but I think growth will suffer slightly, and as i've seen before China saying "we're only growing at 6% this year instead of 8" was enough to cause a large drop in markets worldwide.

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Re: New World Order.....post China

#325423

Postby odysseus2000 » July 11th, 2020, 4:38 pm

gbjbaanb wrote:Anyway, back to whether we should be investing our hard-earned in China.

I read a while back that Japan is paying companies (as part of its bail-out) to move away from China. $2bn is being spent on that.

Today I read that Apple is moving its iPhone production away from China too, over the next 3 years they will be made in india instead.

I think a lot more will be heading that way too. Now whether that will result in a significant shift in Chinese growth remains to be seen, it's possibly China has already developed enough that its internal and subsidiary markets are sufficient, but I think growth will suffer slightly, and as i've seen before China saying "we're only growing at 6% this year instead of 8" was enough to cause a large drop in markets worldwide.


There are about 125 million people in Japan, so $2000/125 = $16 per head, very little.

If you listen to Apple conference calls you will know that Tim Cook believe that India will be a very important market for Apple because of India's young population and limited smart phone penetration and so they are focusing some effort on building manufacturing there to support that expected growth. China however remains a huge focus for them and for many other manufacturers and service suppliers.

The biggest issue now facing China is that of cost. The days when Chinese labour was cheap are over and in some cases according to Sandy Munro who studies this kind of stuff are now similar to the labour rates in the US. Companies would like to pay less for labour, but many like Apple need a skilled work force and the cheaper labour nations generally can not match chinese skill and education levels.

A few firms having additional manufacturing outside of China ain't going to bother China growth and is minimal compared to the impact of c19 and the potential political fault lines around Hong Kong.

Regards,

dspp
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Re: New World Order.....post China

#328428

Postby dspp » July 24th, 2020, 12:09 pm

Pompeo doctrine (thanks JohnKempReuters)

worth reading

https://www.state.gov/communist-china-a ... ds-future/

"We had a very clear purpose, a real mission. It was to explain the different facets of America’s relationship with China, the massive imbalances in that relationship that have built up over decades, and the Chinese Communist Party’s designs for hegemony.

Our goal was to make clear that the threats to Americans that President Trump’s China policy aims to address are clear and our strategy for securing those freedoms established.

Ambassador O’Brien spoke about ideology. FBI Director Wray talked about espionage. Attorney General Barr spoke about economics. And now my goal today is to put it all together for the American people and detail what the China threat means for our economy, for our liberty, and indeed for the future of free democracies around the world."


..... "Look, we have to admit a hard truth. We must admit a hard truth that should guide us in the years and decades to come, that if we want to have a free 21st century, and not the Chinese century of which Xi Jinping dreams, the old paradigm of blind engagement with China simply won’t get it done. We must not continue it and we must not return to it."

- dspp

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Re: New World Order.....post China

#328446

Postby odysseus2000 » July 24th, 2020, 1:27 pm

I found it kind of an amusing read, although the issues that are being dealt with are very important and serious, although it seems to me that the approach set out fails to grasp some of the important concepts regarding power and influence.

First it seems we have to recognise that China has made the most remarkable transition from an agrarian state of extreme poverty, to an industrial super power in a very short time. This has happened due the Chinese communists party's control to force change, the skill and work ethic of the Chinese people and very favourable trading deals with the West.

The spoils for the West have been the end of product inflation. Whereas prior to the emergence of China there was inflation of too much money chasing too few goods, we now have more deflation, too little money chasing too many goods. This has lead to a huge rise in Western prosperity and at the same time a dramatic decline in Western manufacturing.

We have now reached a point where China is so prosperous that their wages are rising and the times of endless cheap goods from factories re-located to China is beginning to end. Additionally China has become so prosperous that they can now develop a range of products that are comparable to what the West can do. One sees this in telecommunications, China's 5G, their space program and their military programs,...

The situation has some parallels with the Soviet Union before Gorbachov, but with the huge difference that Russian tech never caught up with the West, whereas China tech has done and it now exceeding it in quality and performance and moreover, the West has lost a lot of its ability to make things as the service sectors have risen, manufacturing has contracted.

It seems only reasonable that many of the trade practices that favoured China should be wound down, but without the West re-learning to make stuff there will be shortages here and inflation and these are not generally vote winners.

Within these macro economic concerns are the deeper and more worrying ones of what China under Xi really wants to do. Do they want to become a member of the world of free nations or to dominate the world and how do what ever ambitions they have sit with the many internal fault lines that exist within Chinese politics and which have during this great industrialisation been suppressed.

What I currently see as a best case scenario is that the West returns to becoming more self sufficient in goods and technology a state of affairs that Germany has shown can be prosperous. The West is currently blessed with the developments in renewable energy which are beginning to end the oil economy with all the geopolitical instability of relying on energy supplies from nations that are not democracies, one can argue that some of our friends in the middle East are extremely dictatorial and that we would not deal with them where it not for their oil.

Based on what I am seeing this seems currently unlikely and it looks to me that there will be a lot of rhetoric and not a lot of action. In the UK and Europe we are seeing secular decline in manufacturing and in services. Only pharmaceuticals and defence of the major 21st century industries have strong bases located in Europe, most of the clearly 21st century business are in the US and China is slowly beginning to increase it service sector but the needs of the communist party likely mean that services will not emerge from China unless their political system changes. I see a long period of discord and unhappiness between China and the West with this finally resolving when a Gorbachov figure emerges and China changes, but that may be a long way off. In the meantime there is always the potential for some dispute or other to get out of hand and lead to military conflict and we may now be beginning a long cold war with China.

Looking further forwards it seems likely that there will be three super powers: America, China and India, probably with China the strongest, followed by India and the US, based on population size. As things now are I don't believe Europe will become a super power, but if you think I am wrong then please post why and I agree that historically Europe has been a superpower via individual nations. It seems probable that unless there is a major war the human species will raise all the lives of all its members to a much better level than we know now, even if there are no big increases in Artificial Intelligence. I can't quite decide where AI is going, but we will likely see some steer in the next few years. If AI is the next stage of evolution then what humans aspire to and want will become secondary. Turin forecast that machines would take over. In parallel with the enhancements in the living conditions on Earth I expect that within a generation there will be humans living on mars and perhaps the greatest hope for humanity is that we embrace space as the manifest destiny of our species.

I have covered many things in a short space. I welcome counter ideas with reasons as to why they may come to pass.

Regards,

Snorvey
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Re: New World Order.....post China

#328448

Postby Snorvey » July 24th, 2020, 1:38 pm

I'm not entirely convinced the Chinese are anywhere near western military technology. Sure, they can build the stuff that looks like it can do the business, but I think the reality is, it's a poor replica.

And that's probably because whilst the Chinese has had access to non military tech that they can steal/copy, the west has never let them near the serious stuff (and rightly so).

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Re: New World Order.....post China

#328456

Postby scrumpyjack » July 24th, 2020, 2:13 pm

A couple of observations

China has a high population density (150 people per sq km) compared to the US (34). This may lead to expansion pressure, which could be very dangerous.

It has been argued that the more aggressive policies of the CCP are due to internal Chinese politics and as a means of increasing support for Xi and suppressing potential opposition, again this could become very dangerous for the West.

On manufacturing, there are many other countries where Western companies can have their products made and in any case manufacturing automation and efficiency had improved so much that much production could be repatriated if necessary.

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Re: New World Order.....post China

#328533

Postby odysseus2000 » July 24th, 2020, 9:24 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:A couple of observations

China has a high population density (150 people per sq km) compared to the US (34). This may lead to expansion pressure, which could be very dangerous.

It has been argued that the more aggressive policies of the CCP are due to internal Chinese politics and as a means of increasing support for Xi and suppressing potential opposition, again this could become very dangerous for the West.

On manufacturing, there are many other countries where Western companies can have their products made and in any case manufacturing automation and efficiency had improved so much that much production could be repatriated if necessary.


England has a population density of 432 /sq km:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281 ... y-country/

Apple are apparently struggling to get manufacturing done in India which has an educated population of similar size to China, but apparently the bureaucracy in India makes things hard. Many of the nations that offer lower labour rates than China often do not have enough educated folk to provide the tech back up for sophisticated machines that China offers.

Sure manufacturing can be brought back to the UK but it will not be an overnight thing and it will take a very long time to reach the economies of scale that China has developed.

Regards,

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Re: New World Order.....post China

#328591

Postby redsturgeon » July 25th, 2020, 10:42 am

scrumpyjack wrote:A couple of observations

China has a high population density (150 people per sq km) compared to the US (34). This may lead to expansion pressure, which could be very dangerous.

It has been argued that the more aggressive policies of the CCP are due to internal Chinese politics and as a means of increasing support for Xi and suppressing potential opposition, again this could become very dangerous for the West.

On manufacturing, there are many other countries where Western companies can have their products made and in any case manufacturing automation and efficiency had improved so much that much production could be repatriated if necessary.


If you look a few decades hence then China has a declining population, looking to halve by the end of the century, India also. Africa is the only continent with a growing population and Nigeria will, by the end of the century be the most populous country on Earth.

John


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