I found it kind of an amusing read, although the issues that are being dealt with are very important and serious, although it seems to me that the approach set out fails to grasp some of the important concepts regarding power and influence.
First it seems we have to recognise that China has made the most remarkable transition from an agrarian state of extreme poverty, to an industrial super power in a very short time. This has happened due the Chinese communists party's control to force change, the skill and work ethic of the Chinese people and very favourable trading deals with the West.
The spoils for the West have been the end of product inflation. Whereas prior to the emergence of China there was inflation of too much money chasing too few goods, we now have more deflation, too little money chasing too many goods. This has lead to a huge rise in Western prosperity and at the same time a dramatic decline in Western manufacturing.
We have now reached a point where China is so prosperous that their wages are rising and the times of endless cheap goods from factories re-located to China is beginning to end. Additionally China has become so prosperous that they can now develop a range of products that are comparable to what the West can do. One sees this in telecommunications, China's 5G, their space program and their military programs,...
The situation has some parallels with the Soviet Union before Gorbachov, but with the huge difference that Russian tech never caught up with the West, whereas China tech has done and it now exceeding it in quality and performance and moreover, the West has lost a lot of its ability to make things as the service sectors have risen, manufacturing has contracted.
It seems only reasonable that many of the trade practices that favoured China should be wound down, but without the West re-learning to make stuff there will be shortages here and inflation and these are not generally vote winners.
Within these macro economic concerns are the deeper and more worrying ones of what China under Xi really wants to do. Do they want to become a member of the world of free nations or to dominate the world and how do what ever ambitions they have sit with the many internal fault lines that exist within Chinese politics and which have during this great industrialisation been suppressed.
What I currently see as a best case scenario is that the West returns to becoming more self sufficient in goods and technology a state of affairs that Germany has shown can be prosperous. The West is currently blessed with the developments in renewable energy which are beginning to end the oil economy with all the geopolitical instability of relying on energy supplies from nations that are not democracies, one can argue that some of our friends in the middle East are extremely dictatorial and that we would not deal with them where it not for their oil.
Based on what I am seeing this seems currently unlikely and it looks to me that there will be a lot of rhetoric and not a lot of action. In the UK and Europe we are seeing secular decline in manufacturing and in services. Only pharmaceuticals and defence of the major 21st century industries have strong bases located in Europe, most of the clearly 21st century business are in the US and China is slowly beginning to increase it service sector but the needs of the communist party likely mean that services will not emerge from China unless their political system changes. I see a long period of discord and unhappiness between China and the West with this finally resolving when a Gorbachov figure emerges and China changes, but that may be a long way off. In the meantime there is always the potential for some dispute or other to get out of hand and lead to military conflict and we may now be beginning a long cold war with China.
Looking further forwards it seems likely that there will be three super powers: America, China and India, probably with China the strongest, followed by India and the US, based on population size. As things now are I don't believe Europe will become a super power, but if you think I am wrong then please post why and I agree that historically Europe has been a superpower via individual nations. It seems probable that unless there is a major war the human species will raise all the lives of all its members to a much better level than we know now, even if there are no big increases in Artificial Intelligence. I can't quite decide where AI is going, but we will likely see some steer in the next few years. If AI is the next stage of evolution then what humans aspire to and want will become secondary. Turin forecast that machines would take over. In parallel with the enhancements in the living conditions on Earth I expect that within a generation there will be humans living on mars and perhaps the greatest hope for humanity is that we embrace space as the manifest destiny of our species.
I have covered many things in a short space. I welcome counter ideas with reasons as to why they may come to pass.