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Musk endeavours

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dealtn
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Re: Musk endeavours

#329766

Postby dealtn » July 30th, 2020, 4:27 pm

dspp wrote:
dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
As I don't have access to internal company documents I can't verify that it is true, but although one can show that registrations have fallen in some European and Scandinavian markets, Tesla continue to increase sales as reported in their various accounts.

I can find no reason not to believe their statement, but of course every investor has to decide for his/her self.

Regards,


Where can I find these reported sales?


at

https://ir.tesla.com/events-and-presentations


I know you are trying to be helpful (and I didn't ask the question of you) but I can't see, at least initially, where this backs up the statement "continue to increase sales as reported in their various accounts." Obviously the global pandemic and economic adjustment are factors here, but sales look to be down, which isn't an increase.

I will keep looking and reading.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329782

Postby dspp » July 30th, 2020, 5:09 pm

dealtn wrote:
dspp wrote:
dealtn wrote:
Where can I find these reported sales?


at

https://ir.tesla.com/events-and-presentations


I know you are trying to be helpful (and I didn't ask the question of you) but I can't see, at least initially, where this backs up the statement "continue to increase sales as reported in their various accounts." Obviously the global pandemic and economic adjustment are factors here, but sales look to be down, which isn't an increase.

I will keep looking and reading.


There is quarterly variation, but broadly speaking I would say that TSLA are indeed producing at capacity and showing no signs of a demand problem. One can always find a quarterly downer to quibble over, but the direction of travel is good given the covid-19 issues in the last quarter, and the reported production run-rates in the earnings call (read the transcript in that link) which indicate that the capacity is really coming onstream in this quarter. I'm not saying that buying TSLA at this shareprice is a good idea, just trying to observe objectively what is the actual situation.

Must dash, dspp

[edit : to give the snapshot with the inventory line showing]

[edit : comment - this is better data than you will find anywhere else :) ]

Image

TUK020
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Re: Musk endeavours

#329790

Postby TUK020 » July 30th, 2020, 5:24 pm

dspp wrote:Looked at like this, transforming the charging system is a trivial part of the problem. After all look what TSLA has managed with really very little outlay - it gets easier from here. That 5% is demonstrably solvable.

regards, dspp

Image

image source courtesy TSLA, at https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/2019-te ... report.pdf


impressive piece of analysis.

the loose end that I keep worrying at in your assessment is that it is mixing global scale (manufacturing volumes/learning curves) with regional judgements (availability of charging network roll out).
There are big chunks of the world that account for sizeable volumes, that do not have the basic electrical infrastructure on which to build charging points.
This will result in slowing everyone down in terms of ICE/BEV tipping point, and allow others the chance of catching up.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329838

Postby odysseus2000 » July 30th, 2020, 9:33 pm

TUK020
There are big chunks of the world that account for sizeable volumes, that do not have the basic electrical infrastructure on which to build charging points.
This will result in slowing everyone down in terms of ICE/BEV tipping point, and allow others the chance of catching up.


There are also big chunks of the world that do have the basic electrical infrastructure, with all the advanced economies having the capability to generate renewable energy, get it to where its needed and build the capacity to store it.

imho it makes sense to go for the best markets first and then worry about the developing nations later. India is a good example of the latter, but one that has the capability to do "a china" and catch up if it really wants to and I imagine that before long it will really want to, to make itself mostly independent of hydrocarbon suppliers and keep it strong relative to its potential enemies in China and Pakistan. Russia might like to keep an ICE transportation fleet due to its large reserves of hydro-carbons, but the case for BEV is imho overwhelming and this will make Russia take the necessary measures. Africa is already getting a lot of Chinese money and the likely development path is BEV not ICE.

So imho rather than the less advanced areas of the world slowing down the ICE/BEV tipping point, they are more likely to leap frog over the oil economy and become electric and thence create demand. The more prosperous people will adopt the Apple model, i.e. buy iPhones, (Tesla) the less prosperous will adapt the Google model and buy home grown BEV.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#329905

Postby dspp » July 31st, 2020, 10:08 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
TUK020
There are big chunks of the world that account for sizeable volumes, that do not have the basic electrical infrastructure on which to build charging points.
This will result in slowing everyone down in terms of ICE/BEV tipping point, and allow others the chance of catching up.


There are also big chunks of the world that do have the basic electrical infrastructure, with all the advanced economies having the capability to generate renewable energy, get it to where its needed and build the capacity to store it.

imho it makes sense to go for the best markets first and then worry about the developing nations later. India is a good example of the latter, but one that has the capability to do "a china" and catch up if it really wants to and I imagine that before long it will really want to, to make itself mostly independent of hydrocarbon suppliers and keep it strong relative to its potential enemies in China and Pakistan. Russia might like to keep an ICE transportation fleet due to its large reserves of hydro-carbons, but the case for BEV is imho overwhelming and this will make Russia take the necessary measures. Africa is already getting a lot of Chinese money and the likely development path is BEV not ICE.

So imho rather than the less advanced areas of the world slowing down the ICE/BEV tipping point, they are more likely to leap frog over the oil economy and become electric and thence create demand. The more prosperous people will adopt the Apple model, i.e. buy iPhones, (Tesla) the less prosperous will adapt the Google model and buy home grown BEV.

Regards,


Tuk,
I'll second ody's points on this matter. These days I work on building global high voltage grid infrastructure. I go most places, and the places I don't go you will still find my clients, building everything that is significant in grid terms from 11kV to 1,200kV. I cannot think of a globally-significant marketplace for automotive that either cannot or will not make this transition. (That is one reason I keep such a close eye on this as it is also my day-job to do so). The more important the marketplace the faster they are making the transition, with the slight exception of Japan (where for various reasons they cherished the hydrogen dream, though that is now also being discarded by them, imho). Yes, I accept there may be niches where a dino-juice automotive dinosaur may still skulk and survive for 10-20 years longer than the rest-of-world but they will not be material in terms of holding back this transition.
regards,
dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#330065

Postby odysseus2000 » July 31st, 2020, 9:49 pm

Lots of interest here with the guy making some comments on the possible end of bricks and mortar stores, stock split for Apple, some details on panasonic batteries and relationships with Tesla and then some fascinating comparisons between all the reported auto makers:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ha940IXnRiM

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#330072

Postby odysseus2000 » July 31st, 2020, 11:49 pm

This is a bit ponderous, especially as the start, but there is plenty of stuff in this Munroe article about Tesla.

Munroe, notes that Tesla regularly lies, regularly understating their performance.

On solid state batteries, he argues that if Tesla have this, then lots of current Tesla suppliers will have a very bad day. He thought the chance of them having a solid state battery as evens.

Munroe has some negative comments on the auto industries ability to innovate.

https://youtu.be/9l6DPwKHWpY

part 2 is scheduled for next week

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#330105

Postby odysseus2000 » August 1st, 2020, 9:53 am

Tesla safety report:

https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/128940 ... 11936?s=20

Tesla cars with all safety features engaged are nearly 10x safer than the average.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#330109

Postby odysseus2000 » August 1st, 2020, 9:56 am

Cleantechnica take on Tesla safety:

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/01/te ... 000-miles/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#330123

Postby odysseus2000 » August 1st, 2020, 10:41 am

Some comments on the recent pod cast by Elon Musk:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlNUr2ZFVTE

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Re: Musk endeavours

#330129

Postby odysseus2000 » August 1st, 2020, 11:06 am

This is a fascinating 8 mins 20s video about VW.

This is not a company I have studied and so it would be super interesting to read any comments by folk here who are fans of VW.

If the video is roughly correct in its main themes then it seems certain to me that VW is doomed. A company with much of the voting interest held by folk who have no understanding of the technology coupled with a 20% stake held by the local state is a recipe for no change happening before it is too late.

According to this video, the now fired CEO made these points but was undermined by leaks from the board and then removed.

If this is what happened then VW imho is a far better short than Tesla as indeed is BMW.

Maybe this video is not correct, although the delay of the id3 is fact, it would be very interesting to learn of reasons why this video is false if someone has such comments, knowledge etc:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsGMseGPj5s

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Re: Musk endeavours

#330447

Postby odysseus2000 » August 3rd, 2020, 12:07 am

Seeing several articles like this, suggesting a merger between Tesla & VW:

https://youtu.be/qfSFiFV1DEA

Don't know what to think, seems so speculative that I think it's just nonsense, but...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#330687

Postby Howard » August 3rd, 2020, 9:32 pm

Couple of interesting reports in the last week:

German Court Suspends Driver For Adjusting Wiper Speed In Tesla Model 3

Although the driver said that the speedometer there makes it a "safety control panel," the court ruled it could not be considered as such when a quick gaze is not enough for him to check a submenu with five options. The driver would also be to blame because he had not "observed the care required in road traffic."

Easily dismissed. But would put me off buying a Tesla.

Like the German authorities, I wouldn't be happy with all the controls in layers on a touchscreen.

https://insideevs.com/news/436912/drive ... d-model-3/

And in the UK, Tesla's attitude to a customer spending £46,000 on a new car is interesting. No dealer to blame!

- see viewtopic.php?p=330639#p330639

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#330741

Postby odysseus2000 » August 4th, 2020, 4:41 am

Howard wrote:Couple of interesting reports in the last week:

German Court Suspends Driver For Adjusting Wiper Speed In Tesla Model 3

Although the driver said that the speedometer there makes it a "safety control panel," the court ruled it could not be considered as such when a quick gaze is not enough for him to check a submenu with five options. The driver would also be to blame because he had not "observed the care required in road traffic."

Easily dismissed. But would put me off buying a Tesla.

Like the German authorities, I wouldn't be happy with all the controls in layers on a touchscreen.

https://insideevs.com/news/436912/drive ... d-model-3/

And in the UK, Tesla's attitude to a customer spending £46,000 on a new car is interesting. No dealer to blame!

- see viewtopic.php?p=330639#p330639

regards

Howard


The court suspension was for the accident, the drivers excuse that it wasn't his fault as he was adjusting a control wasn't accepted.

As an investor one has to take into consideration how purchasers view a company & with Tesla they view the company very favourably.

The same can not be said about all the other car makers.

How this positivity towards Tesla can be an investment -ve is beyond me.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#330798

Postby odysseus2000 » August 4th, 2020, 10:38 am

Interesting Tesla daily making several good points about Tesla's -ve YouTube articles in quality, potential end of Fiat regulatory credits by end of 2021 and a whole load of stuff with the downer for many in the uk that the Cyber truck may nit be exported to Europe in its present form, that the the whole focus is for a US truck:

https://youtu.be/9NR1fZx_BIY

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Re: Musk endeavours

#330859

Postby Howard » August 4th, 2020, 2:35 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard wrote:Couple of interesting reports in the last week:

German Court Suspends Driver For Adjusting Wiper Speed In Tesla Model 3

Although the driver said that the speedometer there makes it a "safety control panel," the court ruled it could not be considered as such when a quick gaze is not enough for him to check a submenu with five options. The driver would also be to blame because he had not "observed the care required in road traffic."

Easily dismissed. But would put me off buying a Tesla.

Like the German authorities, I wouldn't be happy with all the controls in layers on a touchscreen.

https://insideevs.com/news/436912/drive ... d-model-3/

And in the UK, Tesla's attitude to a customer spending £46,000 on a new car is interesting. No dealer to blame!

- see viewtopic.php?p=330639#p330639

regards

Howard


The court suspension was for the accident, the drivers excuse that it wasn't his fault as he was adjusting a control wasn't accepted.

As an investor one has to take into consideration how purchasers view a company & with Tesla they view the company very favourably.

The same can not be said about all the other car makers.


How this positivity towards Tesla can be an investment -ve is beyond me.

Regards,


Pretty hilarious comment, Ody.

Using the UK as an example:

1.65% of car buyers view Tesla favourably at the moment and 98.35% view other makers more favourably.

Pretty clear evidence that Tesla is not viewed very positively?

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#330874

Postby odysseus2000 » August 4th, 2020, 3:24 pm

People don’t know what they want until you show it to them. That’s why I never rely on market research. Our task to read things that are not yet on the page

This was a quote made by Steve Jobs.

The amazing fact about Tesla is that they have reached the level they have without any advertising what so ever.

By contrast legacy are advertising like crazy for their old technology and it is therefore not surprising that most of the punters have no idea about Tesla.

Most of the people I meet have no clue about Tesla and their cluelessness is amusing.

The really great thing for me as a Tesla long is that there are a huge number of people who in the by and by are about to have an iPhone moment and realise that Tesla are better cars than anything else available.

Sure there are a lot of people, particularly on this board, who will never buy a Tesla for many reasons, but this board is not an average reflection of society.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#330884

Postby dealtn » August 4th, 2020, 3:43 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:People don’t know what they want until you show it to them. That’s why I never rely on market research. Our task to read things that are not yet on the page

This was a quote made by Steve Jobs.

The amazing fact about Tesla is that they have reached the level they have without any advertising what so ever.

By contrast legacy are advertising like crazy for their old technology and it is therefore not surprising that most of the punters have no idea about Tesla.

Most of the people I meet have no clue about Tesla and their cluelessness is amusing.

The really great thing for me as a Tesla long is that there are a huge number of people who in the by and by are about to have an iPhone moment and realise that Tesla are better cars than anything else available.

Sure there are a lot of people, particularly on this board, who will never buy a Tesla for many reasons, but this board is not an average reflection of society.

Regards,


What is that "iphone moment" likely to be? I can't see what it is that is better about them (at least for my needs). And the same applies to Apple products if I am honest (and my children have moved away from Apple and back to others with respect to phones and music - if that's relevant).

I suspect you are right this Board doesn't represent the average society. It is likely older and richer. How does that "help" Tesla (and your argument)?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#330908

Postby odysseus2000 » August 4th, 2020, 5:58 pm

dealtn

What is that "iphone moment" likely to be? I can't see what it is that is better about them (at least for my needs). And the same applies to Apple products if I am honest (and my children have moved away from Apple and back to others with respect to phones and music - if that's relevant).

I suspect you are right this Board doesn't represent the average society. It is likely older and richer. How does that "help" Tesla (and your argument)?


The iPhone moment occurred when sales of iPhones began to shoot up and the sales of legacy Blackberry et al., started to decline.

We are seeing that now with the very low sales declines of Tesla and the much larger sales declines of legacy auto.

Sure some folk hate iPhones, some will never buy one, some will decide they have had enough of iPhones, but overall based on the recent Apple conference call the balance is for Apple users across all its addressed sectors to grow in volume and revenue terms.

The average prosperous member of society wants to have the best and most fashionable and migrates towards the vendors who provide that and such folk are not price or quality sensitive as many folk on this board. Of course there are many who struggle to provide the basics to their families, but of those that are above this level the desire for the most fashionable and iconic of the time is relentless.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#330910

Postby dealtn » August 4th, 2020, 6:12 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn

What is that "iphone moment" likely to be? I can't see what it is that is better about them (at least for my needs). And the same applies to Apple products if I am honest (and my children have moved away from Apple and back to others with respect to phones and music - if that's relevant).

I suspect you are right this Board doesn't represent the average society. It is likely older and richer. How does that "help" Tesla (and your argument)?


The iPhone moment occurred when sales of iPhones began to shoot up and the sales of legacy Blackberry et al., started to decline.

We are seeing that now with the very low sales declines of Tesla and the much larger sales declines of legacy auto.

Sure some folk hate iPhones, some will never buy one, some will decide they have had enough of iPhones, but overall based on the recent Apple conference call the balance is for Apple users across all its addressed sectors to grow in volume and revenue terms.

The average prosperous member of society wants to have the best and most fashionable and migrates towards the vendors who provide that and such folk are not price or quality sensitive as many folk on this board. Of course there are many who struggle to provide the basics to their families, but of those that are above this level the desire for the most fashionable and iconic of the time is relentless.

Regards,


So you don't know what that "iphone moment" will be, or what the catalyst might be, only that it will happen and we will soon see it. Priceless insight thanks.

You really don't know much about investments boards, and this one in particular, if you think they aren't over-populated with the wealthier and less price sensitive amongst society.

You are long (and at least you admit that) so your views can only be taken as such. I still can't see any reason to get involved in a long position at a price anywhere close to this level. Not short, or interested in being, either.


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