Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

I was having an interesting debate about electric traction, oil and China. Part of this revolved around the idea that China was a very backward country with very few roads, nothing like the modern motorways in the UK.

This little clip from Clarkson changed that perception:

https://youtu.be/4-XDxCb92X4

The other amazing feature in people thoughts that I keep coming across is the belief that there is no substitute for oil and gas and that without continued oil & gas extraction, the human species will go back to the stone age. It is as though it is impossible to imagine alternatives and there is a genuine belief in some people that all the wind turbines and solar panels are purely for the grants and that they generate no power what so ever.

Coupling these kinds of thoughts with some of the stuff I see and hear about Covid 19 leaves me to believe that there are a lot of challenged people who have no clue what so ever about anything.

It would not be surprising if these existed at the bottom of society, happily existing in some fantasy world, but I find them all over the social strata. Some senior people who still believe the world is like it was when they were children and that what they were taught in School still applies and they are adamant in their beliefs.

Tell them that the whole oil and gas industry is in decline and they refuse to believe it and find the whole concept that the ending of the oil industry would be a good thing to be some kind of fictional amusement.

Then they start going on about the shortages of lithium, or that to have electric cars would mean covering the planet with charging stations. It is not surprising that electric cars are only slowly taking market share when many of the potential consumers are so ignorant. The great positive is that as electric cars become more common and the advantages become so obvious that there are so many people who will have to change their views leading to a rapid decline in ICE sales.

Regards,

[dspp]

The other amazing feature in people thoughts that I keep coming across is the belief that there is no substitute for oil and gas and that without continued oil & gas extraction, the human species will go back to the stone age. .....

It would not be surprising if these existed at the bottom of society, happily existing in some fantasy world, but I find them all over the social strata.......

Tell them that the whole oil and gas industry is in decline and they refuse to believe it and find the whole concept that the ending of the oil industry would be a good thing to be some kind of fictional amusement....
Regards,

Sssshhhhh Ody, these are useful fools.

After all I need someone to buy some overpriced oil & gas shares from me, way above their true value.



regards, dspp

[Howard]

Tesla Model 3 sales in China in 2020
Jan 2,620
Feb 3,900
Mar 10,160
Apr 3,635
May 11,095
Jun 14,954
July 11,041

Total 57,405

Monthly production numbers quoted by the article appear to be very similar to the sales figures: eg July production was 12,571.

https://insideevs.com/news/438593/china ... july-2020/

The article reports:

"According to the latest reports from China, Made-in-China (MIC) Tesla Model 3 sales remained strong in July, although maybe not as high as one might hope."


regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Tesla Model 3 sales in China in 2020
Jan 2,620
Feb 3,900
Mar 10,160
Apr 3,635
May 11,095
Jun 14,954
July 11,041

Total 57,405

Monthly production numbers quoted by the article appear to be very similar to the sales figures: eg July production was 12,571.

https://insideevs.com/news/438593/china ... july-2020/

The article reports:

"According to the latest reports from China, Made-in-China (MIC) Tesla Model 3 sales remained strong in July, although maybe not as high as one might hope."


regards

Howard

Chinese retail sales were down over 1%:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mar ... -data.html

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla share price up means we see many more bullish articles on Seeking Alpha such as this new one:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3605708-t ... ent=link-3

When the share price was heading down we saw bearish articles including one suggesting that Tesla was a good short.

Regards,

[dspp]

Tesla share price up means we see many more bullish articles on Seeking Alpha such as this new one:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3605708-t ... ent=link-3

When the share price was heading down we saw bearish articles including one suggesting that Tesla was a good short.

Regards,

Or this one, which helpfully sets out some key sales comparatives
https://seekingalpha.com/article/436850 ... continents
- dspp

[odysseus2000]

Or this one, which helpfully sets out some key sales comparatives
https://seekingalpha.com/article/436850 ... continents
- dspp

Fabulous article, thanks for posting!

Regards,

[Howard]

Some folk have been commenting on how few Teslas were sold in Europe of late. It seems somewhere else got priority

"Tesla is running into some issues in Korea. After the automaker dominated the country’s EV market last quarter, the government is now considering cutting Tesla out by increasing the price threshold for its generous electric car incentives.
As we previously reported, the Korean market was really helpful to Tesla during a difficult second quarter amid the global pandemic. Tesla delivered over 4,000 Model 3 vehicles in Korea during the second quarter, and the automaker reportedly still has a backlog of 4,000 to 5,000 Model 3 vehicles on order. The strong demand is partly due to Tesla buyers having strong EV incentives that significantly reduce the price of the electric cars. However, Tesla had so much demand that it reportedly accounted for almost half of the near $200 million in incentives the country issued during the first half of the year. Now, they are now reportedly thinking about changing the regulations to avoid having Tesla buyers receiving the bulk of it (via the Korea Herald):"

etc https://electrek.co/2020/08/10/tesla-cu ... incentive/

- dspp

Updating my post of a month ago, Tesla sales in China in H1 2020 were much lower than I estimated at only around 46,000 if the linked article in my post above is correct. With sales in Europe of around 25,000, South Korea made up some of the deficit with sales of 6,839 cars in H1. We can guess that sales in Canada were around 8,000.

Given total sales of 180,000, that suggests that sales in the USA and some other small markets were around 95,000. The major portion of these sales were presumably made to Americans, suggesting that California is probably still the biggest market for Tesla?

There is no denying that Tesla is quick on its feet in developing new markets. But does it have staying power with so many of them dropping away after a few months of demand by rich enthusiasts?

Are China sales volumes developing as expected?

Selling the 2020 production forecast of 150,000 Chinese-made cars looks fairly challenging? Unless, of course, US production is lower than expected?

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Interesting fully charged that covers:

Minerals from 4000 m below the Pacific
Russian BEV
Toyota solid state batteries
Shell UK wanting to bring end of ICE sales from 2035 to 2030
Rate of increase of BEV charging stations
Rate of increase of UK BEV demand

https://youtu.be/CODvFTbdFZw

Regards,

[Howard]

I was having an interesting debate about electric traction, oil and China. Part of this revolved around the idea that China was a very backward country with very few roads, nothing like the modern motorways in the UK.

...... leaves me to believe that there are a lot of challenged people who have no clue what so ever about anything.

It would not be surprising if these existed at the bottom of society, happily existing in some fantasy world, but I find them all over the social strata. Some senior people who still believe the world is like it was when they were children and that what they were taught in School still applies and they are adamant in their beliefs.

Regards,

Ody

You can also find people on this thread who are strangely ignorant.

For example there are some who believe that Tesla don’t spend money on advertising. I know this is far fetched, like believing China is backward.

Fred at Elektrek, a key, and informed, Tesla supporter was exercised about this recently.

Who knows, if Tesla spend more on advertising they might sell more cars in China?

Regards

Howard

Quote from Fred:

“Don’t get me wrong, I have no problem with this, but Elon needs to stop claiming that they don’t do advertising.”

https://electrek.co/2020/04/30/tesla-in ... vertising/

[dspp]

There is the possibility of a significant short squeeze arising from the 5:1 share split, if any MMs have been misbehaving.

See Artful Dodger, Friday at 9:27 AM at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... 611/page-4

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

There is the possibility of a significant short squeeze arising from the 5:1 share split, if any MMs have been misbehaving.

See Artful Dodger, Friday at 9:27 AM at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... 611/page-4

regards, dspp

Not sure I would agree with Artful Dodger on this.

There has been enough pre-time before the stock pick for any illegal operations to be shut down.

It is possible that someone believes that the share price will tank after the share split and is continuing these practices. There are some very stupid folk in hedge funds so I can't rule it out, but I doubt it will be significant as we are seeing price increase before the split, then there is not too long to battery day and only brave or stupid folk will be short into that.

I could be missing some catalyst, but I expect the next short attack to occur after battery day when most of the longs who want stock will have bought it. However, should there be something new and material during battery day, say statement that they have solid state batteries, I would then expect the stock price to go up strongly, but otherwise with no obvious catalyst there is a chance for the share price to come under pressure after battery day.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Ody

You can also find people on this thread who are strangely ignorant.

For example there are some who believe that Tesla don’t spend money on advertising. I know this is far fetched, like believing China is backward.

Fred at Elektrek, a key, and informed, Tesla supporter was exercised about this recently.

Who knows, if Tesla spend more on advertising they might sell more cars in China?

Regards

Howard

Quote from Fred:

“Don’t get me wrong, I have no problem with this, but Elon needs to stop claiming that they don’t do advertising.”

https://electrek.co/2020/04/30/tesla-in ... vertising/

Hi Howard,

Fred and yours view on what is advertising and mine are diametrically opposed.

One celeb saying she likes Tesla is nothing like the short of advertising that is done by the legacy brands in volume or expense.

Regards,

[Itsallaguess]

However, should there be something new and material during battery day, say statement that they have solid state batteries, I would then expect the stock price to go up strongly, but otherwise with no obvious catalyst there is a chance for the share price to come under pressure after battery day.

So there's Potential for Positive news or Negative news...

Is that why it's called battery day?

I'll get my coat...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[odysseus2000]

This twitter poster says she has done well with Tesla.

Its interesting to see all the advice coming from folk who didn't buy the shares and would probably have told her not to:

https://twitter.com/flcnhvy/status/1295369920545513472

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

This video gives a over view of some of the coming Tesla stuff and the potential developments which are huge, going on in several areas:

https://youtu.be/M7git-yhtno

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

This is an hour and 15 minute video outlining the bull case for Tesla:

https://youtu.be/Z6sVutg9Z3g

The first 30 minutes is the presentation, the remaining time is questions.

Anyone who doesn't understand Tesla as an investment would benefit from watching it. Anyone who is looking for things go short will get plenty of ideas too (Hint: Not Tesla)

Regards,

[dspp]

There really is an interesting fight going on over the $1900 barrier for TSLA. Anyone would think that it might leave a lot of shorts called.
- dspp

[odysseus2000]

There really is an interesting fight going on over the $1900 barrier for TSLA. Anyone would think that it might leave a lot of shorts called.
- dspp

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/129638 ... 49121?s=20

Regards,

[dspp]

There really is an interesting fight going on over the $1900 barrier for TSLA. Anyone would think that it might leave a lot of shorts called.
- dspp

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/129638 ... 49121?s=20

Regards,

Interesting navajo blanket
https://public.tableau.com/profile/jeff ... iseofTesla

(and I note the HW4 stuff is beginning to leak)

- dspp