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Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#358877

Postby odysseus2000 » November 21st, 2020, 6:47 pm

HI Howard,

I am putting what I consider to be plausible things.

Porsche have always been yuppie motors, no upcoming manager it going there, for fear of upsetting his upper managers.

Your opinion of solar roofing doesn't tie with the number of systems I see going up.

If you recall it was not long ago that you predicted the death of Tesla, eaten by competition. Now as the Tesla range and volume expands you are making comparisons that don't make sense. Tesla has no small currently and small cars are selling well.

Looking at the references dspp put up, folk are managing with 13 amp suppliers which is very interesting and cuts the cost to zero installation. As it happens I have been running a TIG welder off 13 amp when it is specified to need a 20 or 32 amp supply, but it is quite strong enough for what I am doing, easily able to melt car body steel sheets that are about 1 mm thick.

I have no idea how long the current PM will last, but as is he is proposing a strong green agenda and that will almost certainly come with more restrictions on ICE and higher ICE fuel costs.

The major clincher is that if you stand by a modern ice car you still don't want to breathe the exhaust, whereas with a BEV there is no tail pipe gas. BEV are the wave of future transportation. The overall sales numbers will tell us which manufactures are going to do well.

Regards,

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#358898

Postby Howard » November 21st, 2020, 8:10 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:HI Howard,

I am putting what I consider to be plausible things.

Porsche have always been yuppie motors, no upcoming manager it going there, for fear of upsetting his upper managers.

Your opinion of solar roofing doesn't tie with the number of systems I see going up.

If you recall it was not long ago that you predicted the death of Tesla, eaten by competition. I don't believe you can find a quote from me predicting the death of Tesla. I'm careful not to make predictions. Yes I'm a Tesla critic, but please don't make up quotes I didn't make. Now as the Tesla range and volume expands you are making comparisons that don't make sense. Tesla has no small currently and small cars are selling well.

Looking at the references dspp put up, folk are managing with 13 amp suppliers which is very interesting and cuts the cost to zero installation. As it happens I have been running a TIG welder off 13 amp when it is specified to need a 20 or 32 amp supply, but it is quite strong enough for what I am doing, easily able to melt car body steel sheets that are about 1 mm thick.

I have no idea how long the current PM will last, but as is he is proposing a strong green agenda and that will almost certainly come with more restrictions on ICE and higher ICE fuel costs.

The major clincher is that if you stand by a modern ice car you still don't want to breathe the exhaust, whereas with a BEV there is no tail pipe gas. BEV are the wave of future transportation. The overall sales numbers will tell us which manufactures are going to do well.

Regards,


It doesn't help your case to make up quotes, Ody.

I agree I have been critical of Tesla and I have suggested they may make a loss and their market shares are slipping recently together with some other criticisms but you are taking things a little too far.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#358909

Postby Howard » November 21st, 2020, 9:59 pm

dspp wrote:
Howard wrote:Given the large number of Teslas coming to the UK over the next two months and knowing that most of them are likely to be leased, out of interest, I had a look at leasing costs compared with a BMW 3 Series.

If either of us could be bothered to pull out that last post from wayback somewhen then we could fairly easily insert the missing elements to get a apples-to-apples comparison. Personally I have to do some gardening today before the rains sweep in again.

regards, dspp


Thanks to Bobby D's help, I believe this is the June 2019 post you were referring to: viewtopic.php?p=232710#p232710

It will be interesting to see what your calculation comes up with now.

Sorry to add a little more to the Tesla sums but I think a Model 3 will cost a bit more to insure. Looking at Parkers, Tesla Model 3 insurance group is 48 - 50 and a BMW 320i MSport is 30. I'm guessing for, say a 40 year old driver with a good record - £200 more a year? I'm paying £300 a year to insure a nearly new 5 Series but am a year or two older than 40. :(

If you do the calculation again, I'd be interested to see your assumptions for the energy consumption costs of a Tesla driven 10k miles mainly on motorway journeys. As far as I know, in the last five years, I've never been overtaken on a clear motorway by a Tesla. This suggests to me that their drivers don't want to reduce the range too much by driving at 70 mph or a little faster ;) ?

Sorry to quote from "Which", but it's the consumer magazine a careful buyer would trust: "Our second test model – the Standard Plus – consumed 19.5kWh per 100km. Tesla claims this model will cover 254 miles between charges, but in our tests we squeezed just 190 miles out of its 50kWh battery." Their tests, "mix urban, extra-urban and motorway driving".

Looking forward to seeing the cost comparison, if you have time.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#358910

Postby dspp » November 21st, 2020, 10:01 pm

Howard wrote:
dspp wrote:
Howard wrote:
For a private motorist, assuming there is off-road parking, we need to add £1,000 up front cost for a home charger for a Tesla. There may be a grant to offset some of this but it’s a hassle to get. Yes, there is a little more road tax to pay on a BMW but it's not much.

To be continued ....

regards

Howard


Howard,

There is no need to pay £1000 to set up for overnight charging. Less than £100 would do it via a 16A 1ph socket (blue IEC socket, often called a 'commando' socket in the UK). Frankly for overnight charging in commuter use a standard 13A socket will do the trick. Yes one can pay more, but one does not need to.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... uk.163439/
or
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ug.165126/
or
https://forums.tesla.com/discussion/506 ... ndo-outlet

EDIT @ 17:34
Here are some switched + interlocked IEC/commando sockets, these are the 32A version, £20-£34 :
https://www.tlc-direct.co.uk/Products/L ... sh3SS.html
https://www.rselectricalsupplies.co.uk/ ... w66015_268

EDIT @ 17:41
And here interlocked + switched + RCD bay for £102
https://www.rselectricalsupplies.co.uk/ ... 66988_9433
and a typical dual pole RCD is £26
https://www.cef.co.uk/catalogue/product ... lsrc=aw.ds
Which would seem to be fully compliant with latest IEE regs ........

regards,
dspp


Yes, I accept your electrical expertise. So would this be fine for someone who might drive 200 miles one day and 100 the next? The car would be available for a charge from say 10pm and driven again around 7.00am. Not an academic question, because I knew a busy Tesla M3 owner whose driving involved this (work plus sport in the evenings). He's pretty canny and cost conscious and he had a £1k charger installed.

regards

Howard


Assume for a moment the 32A interlocked are supplied from a 16A feed, which is permissible under the regs. Assume they are recharging a model 3. That would recharge the model 3 at 3.7kW or 14-15 miles/hour). So 9h x 15mph = 135 miles. That would be absolutely fine for a car that was doing 200 miles, then 100 miles, then 200 miles, etc, i.e. 150 miles average. In practical terms they would generally finish the weekend absolutely full (300-miles), them might drift down to 200 miles by the end of the week.

Your canny chappy was conned, unless of course he got muggins the taxpayer to pay for it (see below).

Your point about needing to replace chargers ever 3-years is wrong. The correct thing for everyone to do is to fit these no-brand IEC sockets and be brand-neutral. It is only because the politicians haven't a £$%$^^&ng clue about technology that they have been conned into this sort of approach, with subsidies for branded 'solutions'. The right approach is brand-neutral and unsubsidised, and 16A is absolutely fine and is the same as the typical cooker. The 'wrappers' I know of in the charger space are making cash hand-over-fist mugging babies. The fault is the dumb-arse luvvy politicians and their spads.

Regards,
dspp

(p.s. I will look at the other sums tomorrow, gardening and other stuff permitting)

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Re: Musk endeavours

#358915

Postby odysseus2000 » November 21st, 2020, 10:15 pm

Howard
It doesn't help your case to make up quotes, Ody.

I agree I have been critical of Tesla and I have suggested they may make a loss and their market shares are slipping recently together with some other criticisms but you are taking things a little too far.

regards

Howard


Believing that Tesla will make a loss and that it is losing sales along with all your concerns about service, paint quality, reliability etc, not to mention unattractiveness of solar panels are all things that if they mattered would have ended Tesla.

You may not have explicitly said Tesla will fail, but its semantics. To have put forward all the many negatives over many years and not be seen as being of the opinion that Tesla will fail are rather difficult things to square. That is how I see it and I would humbly suggest that most investors would come to the same conclusion.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#358917

Postby odysseus2000 » November 21st, 2020, 10:26 pm

This is how the UK is competing with SpaceX.

Buy a company that went bankrupt because private investors would not support a cash raise and then enter a business market for space internet where performance is vital and do it with a fraction of the satellites that SpaceX will use:

https://www.ft.com/content/a573056c-ce8 ... 5836d6e729

As far as I can tell the rockets that will be used would struggle to lift a washing machine into orbit and are disposable.

I wonder if there are other reasons why private investors would not pony up?

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#358922

Postby dspp » November 21st, 2020, 10:48 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:This is how the UK is competing with SpaceX.

Buy a company that went bankrupt because private investors would not support a cash raise and then enter a business market for space internet where performance is vital and do it with a fraction of the satellites that SpaceX will use:

https://www.ft.com/content/a573056c-ce8 ... 5836d6e729

As far as I can tell the rockets that will be used would struggle to lift a washing machine into orbit and are disposable.

I wonder if there are other reasons why private investors would not pony up?

Regards,


ody,

You missed out that they are a) in the wrong orbits to provide the GPS (Galileo) substitute that UK is seeking in a post-Brexit world; b) they are in the wrong orbits to provide high bandwidth low-latency comms vs the new competition (Space X / Starlink); c) they are too few and too low and so vulnerable to ASAT; d) they are lossmaking and so will requite endless cash-infusions; e) UK has no organic launch capability of the requisite throw-weight; f) if it were to be successful would threaten the Skynet/Inmarsats that UK already uses; and I get bored because almost everything else is wrong as well. Basically a dumb history luvvy conned a failed PPE luvvy into buying a bankrupt half-built satellite network that was obsolete before it was half-built, and getting more obsolete by the day. Meanwhile the gleeful cackle you hear is a merchant banker running away jingling with $$$$. More Brexit madness. But this is the wrong thread for that - it should go down in the security/defence implications of Brexit, which are not good for UK.

regards,
dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#358933

Postby Howard » November 22nd, 2020, 12:52 am

dspp wrote:
Howard wrote:
dspp wrote:
Howard,

There is no need to pay £1000 to set up for overnight charging. Less than £100 would do it via a 16A 1ph socket (blue IEC socket, often called a 'commando' socket in the UK). Frankly for overnight charging in commuter use a standard 13A socket will do the trick. Yes one can pay more, but one does not need to.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... uk.163439/
or
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ug.165126/
or
https://forums.tesla.com/discussion/506 ... ndo-outlet

EDIT @ 17:34
Here are some switched + interlocked IEC/commando sockets, these are the 32A version, £20-£34 :
https://www.tlc-direct.co.uk/Products/L ... sh3SS.html
https://www.rselectricalsupplies.co.uk/ ... w66015_268

EDIT @ 17:41
And here interlocked + switched + RCD bay for £102
https://www.rselectricalsupplies.co.uk/ ... 66988_9433
and a typical dual pole RCD is £26
https://www.cef.co.uk/catalogue/product ... lsrc=aw.ds
Which would seem to be fully compliant with latest IEE regs ........

regards,
dspp


Yes, I accept your electrical expertise. So would this be fine for someone who might drive 200 miles one day and 100 the next? The car would be available for a charge from say 10pm and driven again around 7.00am. Not an academic question, because I knew a busy Tesla M3 owner whose driving involved this (work plus sport in the evenings). He's pretty canny and cost conscious and he had a £1k charger installed.

regards

Howard


Assume for a moment the 32A interlocked are supplied from a 16A feed, which is permissible under the regs. Assume they are recharging a model 3. That would recharge the model 3 at 3.7kW or 14-15 miles/hour). So 9h x 15mph = 135 miles. That would be absolutely fine for a car that was doing 200 miles, then 100 miles, then 200 miles, etc, i.e. 150 miles average. In practical terms they would generally finish the weekend absolutely full (300-miles), them might drift down to 200 miles by the end of the week.

Your canny chappy was conned, unless of course he got muggins the taxpayer to pay for it (see below).

Your point about needing to replace chargers ever 3-years is wrong. The correct thing for everyone to do is to fit these no-brand IEC sockets and be brand-neutral. It is only because the politicians haven't a £$%$^^&ng clue about technology that they have been conned into this sort of approach, with subsidies for branded 'solutions'. The right approach is brand-neutral and unsubsidised, and 16A is absolutely fine and is the same as the typical cooker. The 'wrappers' I know of in the charger space are making cash hand-over-fist mugging babies. The fault is the dumb-arse luvvy politicians and their spads.

Regards,
dspp

(p.s. I will look at the other sums tomorrow, gardening and other stuff permitting)


Thanks for this explanation. It has wider implications for anyone reading this thread and considering a BEV as their next car.

Presumably it means that (in most circumstances, given the supply is ok) any currently available BEV which can be charged off road or in a garage overnight doesn't need a charger, just the 16A socket. That's really helpful.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#358934

Postby Howard » November 22nd, 2020, 1:03 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard
It doesn't help your case to make up quotes, Ody.

I agree I have been critical of Tesla and I have suggested they may make a loss and their market shares are slipping recently together with some other criticisms but you are taking things a little too far.

regards

Howard


Believing that Tesla will make a loss and that it is losing sales along with all your concerns about service, paint quality, reliability etc, not to mention unattractiveness of solar panels are all things that if they mattered would have ended Tesla.

You may not have explicitly said Tesla will fail, but its semantics. To have put forward all the many negatives over many years and not be seen as being of the opinion that Tesla will fail are rather difficult things to square. That is how I see it and I would humbly suggest that most investors would come to the same conclusion.

Regards,


Dear Ody

You won't find many forecasts by me in this thread.

It’s you who make the forecasts of doom for legacy manufacturers and the wild forecasts of a million robotaxis and world domination by Tesla.

I just try and balance them with a few facts about what's really happening. ;)

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#358936

Postby BobbyD » November 22nd, 2020, 4:54 am

odysseus2000 wrote:You may not have explicitly said Tesla will fail, but its semantics.


Semantically speaking it's 'it's semantics'.

Howard wrote:Presumably it means that (in most circumstances, given the supply is ok) any currently available BEV which can be charged off road or in a garage overnight doesn't need a charger, just the 16A socket. That's really helpful.


There were instances where you might want a charger with an MID certified electricity meter built in, as with the ID.Charger Pro, for your company car but this may have changed.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#358970

Postby dealtn » November 22nd, 2020, 10:09 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn

To quote someone "Here is the problem with this analysis"

Yet TESLA hits the "sweet spot"?

Confirmation Bias (again!)


We will soon have the sales numbers to confirm or otherwise, but according to the company (Tesla reports), demand is far in excess of what they can supply.

Regards,


Really? I wouldn't expect any company to have sales records as broken down to be as granular as that to capture categories such as "young executives with ambition ..."

But yes, I agree, ultimately it will come down to aggregate sales, to those with all reasons for their demand. The whole industry has had a severely disrupted year due to Covid, which makes the progress on the longer term (secular) trends more difficult than usual to extract from the noisy data.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#359033

Postby TUK020 » November 22nd, 2020, 3:54 pm

dealtn wrote:
Really? I wouldn't expect any company to have sales records as broken down to be as granular as that to capture categories such as "young executives with ambition ..."



you didn't quite capture the category.
try
"young executives with ambitions, but not a yuppie"

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Re: Musk endeavours

#359275

Postby odysseus2000 » November 23rd, 2020, 1:25 pm


dspp
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Re: Musk endeavours

#359330

Postby dspp » November 23rd, 2020, 3:56 pm

"Plug-in hybrids in new emissions scandal as tests show higher pollution than claimed

Sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles are skyrocketing in Europe, but tests on the newest models confirm they pollute the climate far more than carmakers claim – even when starting with a full battery. Three of the most popular plug-ins in 2020 all emitted more CO2 than advertised, when tested in the real world, just as research on older PHEVs has shown.[1] Transport & Environment (T&E), which commissioned the tests, said governments should end the purchase subsidies and generous tax breaks for plug-in hybrids that are fuelling another emissions scandal."

https://www.transportenvironment.org/pr ... on-claimed

Who'd have thought it. PHEV = excuse to carry on polluting.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#359383

Postby Howard » November 23rd, 2020, 6:13 pm

I have had a go at updating dspp’s comparison of three year’s running costs for a BMW 3 Series and a Tesla Model 3.

I’d welcome any comments about the accuracy of my calculations. Whilst they are for a private individual, see my comment on BIK costs for company car drivers at the end.

I’m comparing results for leasing a car for 3 years, paying 6 months up front and 35 further payments, covering 10,000 miles a year of mixed motorway/city driving. But assuming (like me) the driver won’t drive in London but would park just outside the congestion zone to avoid the hassle of Central London. I have used Select Car Leasing costs which have changed slightly since a few posts ago.

Cost of running a Tesla Model 3 Standard Plus with metallic paint.

As a private individual the costs for a three year rental are: £533.64 per month 6 + 35 months. Maintenance is £48.71 per month extra.

So total cost at £582 per month for three years is £23,862, plus initial £195 admin charge it’s £24,057.

Car tax is zero.

“Which” calculated the monthly fuel cost of home charging a Tesla used for motorway/city driving at £40 a month. So that’s £1,440 over three years. (This assumes that there is no extra cost for motorway charging).

Charger cost: By chance, I had a quote for installing a (dspp recommended) 16 amp supply for my air conditioning last year and it was £270 inc VAT.

I’m going to assume that the cost of insurance for the Tesla is £500 a year (it could actually be a lot more reading Tesla owner posts!). That’s £1,500.

So the total cost of a Tesla over three years is estimated at £27,267.

xxx

Cost of running a 3 Series BMW M Sport 4dr Step Auto with metallic Paint

As a private individual the costs for a three year rental are: 10,000 miles a year. £375 per month 6 + 35 months. Maintenance is £31 per month extra.

So total cost at £406 per month for three years is £16,646, plus initial £195 admin charge it’s £16,841.

Car tax is included in the leasing costs.

Which calculated the monthly fuel cost of a 320i is £94 a month so that’s £3,384 over three years. (They got 41.5 mpg).

Cost of insurance for the BMW, £300 a year so total of £900.

So the total cost of a BMW over three years is estimated at £21,125

xxx


At the moment, for a private motorist to whom the cost is important, the BMW would cost £6,142 less to run over three years.

Note: If the motorist chose a BMW 320 diesel, the fuel costs would be substantially cheaper because of the improved fuel consumption.

Please, in reading the above, don’t assume I’m recommending an ICE car over a BEV. I’m just looking at the costs!

I’m going to look at another BEV in a later post, which may be more competitive in cost terms.

And, everything is different for a company car driver as I estimate that the taxable benefit for a 20% taxpayer on a Tesla is £261 and on a BMW £7,000 a year. So this would change the equation substantially. I'm retired and frankly bored by tax, so would welcome any comments on the BIK from executive car drivers!

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#359415

Postby dspp » November 23rd, 2020, 8:17 pm

Howard wrote:I have had a go at updating dspp’s comparison of three year’s running costs for a BMW 3 Series and a Tesla Model 3.

I’d welcome any comments about the accuracy of my calculations. Whilst they are for a private individual, see my comment on BIK costs for company car drivers at the end.........

And, everything is different for a company car driver as I estimate that the taxable benefit for a 20% taxpayer on a Tesla is £261 and on a BMW £7,000 a year. So this would change the equation substantially. I'm retired and frankly bored by tax, so would welcome any comments on the BIK from executive car drivers!

regards

Howard


Howard,
Thanks for doing this. I'm a bit busy at work so I haven't had a chance. Teslas tend to do ~90% charging at home which is cheaper. That £7k per year BIK tax is a biggy. You are also missing congestion charging which is big for a lot of users.
regards,
dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#359430

Postby odysseus2000 » November 23rd, 2020, 9:05 pm

Tesla closes at a new all time high!

Meanwhile xpev has roughly tripled this month.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#359436

Postby Howard » November 23rd, 2020, 9:21 pm

In researching the BMW versus Tesla costs, I had a look at the latest information on the “Which” website. They have done a lot of testing of BEVs.

To avoid my “confirmation bias” I won’t summarise their findings in this post but just record that their “Best Buy” BEV at the moment is a Kia Niro.

This prompted me to check the relative costs of leasing a Kia on the same basis (Select Car Leasing) as in the post above comparing a BMW to a Tesla.

Cost of running a Kia e-Niro Estate, 150kW 64kWh 5dr Auto [2021]

As a private individual the cost for a three year, 10,000 miles a year rental is: £341.87 per month 6 + 35 months. Maintenance is £20.62 per month extra.

So total cost at £362.49 per month for three years is £14,862, plus initial £195 admin charge it’s £15,057.

Car tax is zero.

“Which” calculated the monthly fuel cost of home charging a Kia used for motorway/city driving at £37 a month. So that’s £1,332 over three years. (This assumes that there is no extra cost for motorway charging).

Charger cost: Same assumption as for a Tesla - £270 inc VAT.

The Kia Niro is in insurance group 27 so cheaper to insure than either a BMW or Tesla. Let’s assume it costs £250 a year or £750 for three years.

So for a private motorist, the total cost over three years is estimated at £17,409. That’s around £10,000 less than a Tesla.

And for company car drivers, like the Tesla, the BIK is very small.

As we may all have differing views on the merits of a Kia, I’ll post some of the “Which” comments about it on a separate post, as this one is hopefully sticking to fairly hard facts.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#359485

Postby Howard » November 24th, 2020, 12:53 am

Why is the range of a Kia substantially more than a Tesla?

I mentioned above that “Which” have carried out a lot of thorough tests on BEVs. As well as comparative energy consumption in real-world driving conditions Which carry out a survey of their members to check their experiences. They literally get tens of thousands of replies every year and their members tend to be early adopters of cars like BEVs.

They have published a lot of data and some of the findings are not behind their paywall. Link to their site below.

For obvious copyright reasons I can’t quote all the data. (And I don’t want to repeat some of the issues we have discussed before). But the difference in battery and electric motor performance of a Kia and a Tesla is fascinating.

In real driving conditions, a mix of motorway and town, the range of a Standard Range Tesla Model 3 is around 190 miles and a 64 kWh Kia Niro is 245 miles.

Which say that the Niro is the most efficient electric car they have ever tested. In an urban situation it achieves a power usage better than 13 kWh per 100 km and thus a potential range of over 300 miles.

Reading their reports, the key question for me comes back to batteries.

How is it that a car like a Kia (with an extra door at the back) has nearly a 30% better range than a much more expensive Tesla?

regards

Howard

https://www.which.co.uk/reviews/new-and ... hcm1q3xkwX

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Re: Musk endeavours

#359516

Postby JamesMuenchen » November 24th, 2020, 8:18 am

I think all this analysis of cars and batteries and whatnot is missing the point now.

TSLA has a market cap of $1/2 trillion.

Looking at it as an investment, its advantage is capital. This became clear to me last time TSLA did an easy capital raise, just as all the bears were celebrating that it would run out of funds.

And they could simply buy any number of competing car makers for stock.


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