Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

Thanks for posting that table of ev sales in europe, Howard. I think the vw id.3 is going to be huge. Not cause of technology, but because it is cheaper and Volkswagen can scale up mass production, so that this becomes the new polo and golf. This to me is the big issue tesla will face. It has a narrow moat. Once the big car manufacturers have mass ev production and starts delivering in big numbers, then teslas stock price will plummet.

Maybe, but they will have to sort out the battery shortages and if the ID3 is huge it means that all their ICE engine lines will suffer and those lines capital expense will have to be written off hurting their balance sheet.

Before long I expect we will stories of ID3 owners having range problems, software problems and a whole host of other teething troubles and at the same time all the hybrid investment looks doomed.

VW board members and big investors are already fretting about the low margins on ID3 (trade stories say ID3 margin is negative, but so far no independent verification) and they are also concerned about the effect of BEV on all the existing ICE manufacturing they had expected to depreciate over the next decade, ditto all the hybrid research.

Tesla by contrast have better batteries, more supply and better range with all of these set to improve on very strong upward trajectories and the ability to sell into home storage should the auto industry remain depressed.

I don't know how this will all pan out, but VW have to execute near perfectly on everything, just to survive. If they make a mistake they are in huge trouble.

Tesla also have a cult type fan base whilst VW threw theirs away with diesel gate and Tesla have the advantages of advanced cast manufacturing, integral battery packs, new tab-less cell technology with the currently unknowable ace up their sleeves of robotic driving.

Regards,

[Howard]

Howard
There is also some concern from owners about Tesla's advice to not regularly charge the battery to 100%.

As far as I know the charging software is set by Tesla, not the driver, and will not let you change to 100% (4.2 Volts on each cell.)

In times of emergency such as running from a hurricane, Tesla generally removes this restriction by over the air update so that the max possible range is achieved.

There seems to be a lot of confusion about how far folk drive in their normal life. Some suggest in the UK it is typically about 20 miles per day with only the odd trip of a hundred miles or so. If this is correct then a lot of the range anxiety in the UK is likely about just a few folk who want to drive much longer than these average values.

Also whether cold is as big an issue as set out in some of the UK posts is unclear to me. One of the biggest markets for BEV is Norway which has serious cold and yet people manage fine in the extreme Scandinavian conditions that are rarely if ever experienced in the UK.

I am far from convinced that the bulletin board chats on Tesla and BEV are anything but the emotions of a few who are natural complainers or who are getting kickbacks from legacy auto and legacy fossil.

Regards,

Ody

Read the thread I linked to. It's real Tesla drivers helping to persuade others who are considering acquiring a Model 3 and concerned about range.

Are you the emotional supporter who has never driven a Tesla? Constructing incredible conspiracy theories to rubbish the views of enthusiasts who are driving Teslas on UK motorways every week?

Have you been to Norway? I have several times and never drove on a motorway. Is it possible that most Tesla owners live in a fairly compact area and seldom have to drive long distances at high speed. I'm not saying this is a fact but it may be another reason that BEVs are so sensible there given the massive subsidies?

regards

Howard

[dspp]

Thanks for posting that table of ev sales in europe, Howard. I think the vw id.3 is going to be huge. Not cause of technology, but because it is cheaper and Volkswagen can scale up mass production, so that this becomes the new polo and golf. This to me is the big issue tesla will face. It has a narrow moat. Once the big car manufacturers have mass ev production and starts delivering in big numbers, then teslas stock price will plummet.

There are rumours that VW are not able to make a profit on the ID3.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

Ody

Read the thread I linked to. It's real Tesla drivers helping to persuade others who are considering acquiring a Model 3 and concerned about range.

Are you the emotional supporter who has never driven a Tesla? Constructing incredible conspiracy theories to rubbish the views of enthusiasts who are driving Teslas on UK motorways every week?

Have you been to Norway? I have several times and never drove on a motorway. Is it possible that most Tesla owners live in a fairly compact area and seldom have to drive long distances at high speed. I'm not saying this is a fact but it may be another reason that BEVs are so sensible there given the massive subsidies?

regards

Howard

I live in the world of investment and trading. I see endless schemes put out by vested interests to move price to suit the vested interests and these are quite well paid.

E.g. a positive review on youtube of a product is paid about $300.

There are all manner of other scams were people impersonate genuine people to spread FUD (Fear Uncertainty and Doubt) and are paid to do so. There are even some people who do this as a hobby for 'fun'.

On a bulletin board no one knows what agendas posters may have.

There is a guy on youtube who I have linked to who drives BEV to the arctic circle to test their cold weather performance. He trialed an ID3 against an older model 3. The older model 3 was slightly better but both coped much better than did the polestar and had no trouble with the temperatures experienced at the arctic circle. Was this review a true one? I have no idea.

On several occasions now you have showed how Tesla are not selling in some market, but have missed that they were selling in another market. Where these errors because you were fed false stuff from bulletin boards?

In the world of investment and trading, nothing can be taken at face value. The old adage of Caveat Emptor needs to be kept firmly at the front of ones mind and one can not take what people say as being their genuine opinion. Often it is their agenda that does the typing.

Regards,

[Howard]

Ody

Read the thread I linked to. It's real Tesla drivers helping to persuade others who are considering acquiring a Model 3 and concerned about range.

Are you the emotional supporter who has never driven a Tesla? Constructing incredible conspiracy theories to rubbish the views of enthusiasts who are driving Teslas on UK motorways every week?

Have you been to Norway? I have several times and never drove on a motorway. Is it possible that most Tesla owners live in a fairly compact area and seldom have to drive long distances at high speed. I'm not saying this is a fact but it may be another reason that BEVs are so sensible there given the massive subsidies?

regards

Howard

I live in the world of investment and trading. I see endless schemes put out by vested interests to move price to suit the vested interests and these are quite well paid.

E.g. a positive review on youtube of a product is paid about $300.

There are all manner of other scams were people impersonate genuine people to spread FUD (Fear Uncertainty and Doubt) and are paid to do so. There are even some people who do this as a hobby for 'fun'.

On a bulletin board no one knows what agendas posters may have.

There is a guy on youtube who I have linked to who drives BEV to the arctic circle to test their cold weather performance. He trialed an ID3 against an older model 3. The older model 3 was slightly better but both coped much better than did the polestar and had no trouble with the temperatures experienced at the arctic circle. Was this review a true one? I have no idea.

On several occasions now you have showed how Tesla are not selling in some market, but have missed that they were selling in another market. Where these errors because you were fed false stuff from bulletin boards?

In the world of investment and trading, nothing can be taken at face value. The old adage of Caveat Emptor needs to be kept firmly at the front of ones mind and one can not take what people say as being their genuine opinion. Often it is their agenda that does the typing.

Regards,

I asked :Are you the emotional supporter who has never driven a Tesla? Constructing incredible conspiracy theories to rubbish the views of enthusiasts who are driving Teslas on UK motorways every week?

Well, I guess you've given me a pretty conclusive answer!

thanks

Howard

[BobbyD]

This #221373 post from amolinia on tmc has a graphic with the $$ sales of BEVs in China, not just the unit sales. Most informative.

YTD TSLA have 27% by units but 42% by revenue !!!!! I would guess that by kWh is midway between those.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/5161417/

- dspp

"‘Why did it take nine hours to go 130 miles in our new electric Porsche?’"
= should have bought a Tesla
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/ ... ng-network

- dspp

There are rumours that VW are not able to make a profit on the ID3.

regards, dspp

This really is top level stuff! Incorrect analysis, anecdote and rumour. What's for Fudding?

[dspp]

This #221373 post from amolinia on tmc has a graphic with the $$ sales of BEVs in China, not just the unit sales. Most informative.

YTD TSLA have 27% by units but 42% by revenue !!!!! I would guess that by kWh is midway between those.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/5161417/

- dspp

"‘Why did it take nine hours to go 130 miles in our new electric Porsche?’"
= should have bought a Tesla
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/ ... ng-network

- dspp

There are rumours that VW are not able to make a profit on the ID3.

regards, dspp

This really is top level stuff! Incorrect analysis, anecdote and rumour. What's for Fudding?

1. Re CN, I think the underlying point I repeated (from tmc) is valid, though I accept your caveat re the detail of the numbers.
2. Re non-Tesla charging horror stories, there are many. Buying a Tesla as a means of access to a working charger network is a no-brainer.
3. VW have been very coy about profitability of the ID3. The few snippets out there are I am afraid at rumour level, but are also believable. Why do you think the VW board are not going 100% on BEV to the extent that they basically demoted the pro-BEV CEO?

So I fully accept not being at the BD pukka standards for journalism & fact-checking, but nonetheless I still got some gardening done today and went for a walk as well, plus doing some yottie stuff

regards, dspp

[Howard]

This #221373 post from amolinia on tmc has a graphic with the $$ sales of BEVs in China, not just the unit sales. Most informative.

YTD TSLA have 27% by units but 42% by revenue !!!!! I would guess that by kWh is midway between those.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/5161417/

- dspp

"‘Why did it take nine hours to go 130 miles in our new electric Porsche?’"
= should have bought a Tesla
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/ ... ng-network

- dspp

There are rumours that VW are not able to make a profit on the ID3.

regards, dspp

This really is top level stuff! Incorrect analysis, anecdote and rumour. What's for Fudding?

1. Re CN, I think the underlying point I repeated (from tmc) is valid, though I accept your caveat re the detail of the numbers.
2. Re non-Tesla charging horror stories, there are many. Buying a Tesla as a means of access to a working charger network is a no-brainer.
3. VW have been very coy about profitability of the ID3. The few snippets out there are I am afraid at rumour level, but are also believable. Why do you think the VW board are not going 100% on BEV to the extent that they basically demoted the pro-BEV CEO?

So I fully accept not being at the BD pukka standards for journalism & fact-checking, but nonetheless I still got some gardening done today and went for a walk as well, plus doing some yottie stuff

regards, dspp

It would be so easy to paste links to disgruntled Tesla owner posts. I read two this weekend.

And there's a fun one at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... -3.212348/

But I wouldn't dream of linking to them . It's more fun sticking to the facts.

Have you seen the Norway sales figures for November?

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

I asked :Are you the emotional supporter who has never driven a Tesla? Constructing incredible conspiracy theories to rubbish the views of enthusiasts who are driving Teslas on UK motorways every week?

Well, I guess you've given me a pretty conclusive answer!

thanks

Howard

I am not an emotional supporter.

I am interested in making money in any legal way possible.

For me to make money long Tesla equity I need punters to buy the cars.

I am too busy to bother much about driving myself. Last year I did less than 1000 miles.

In the world of Zoom and fast delivery I can work on jobs, speak with people all over the world, order stuff internationally, ship out product all over the place and yet hardly move.

I have hardly enough use to justify a car, but sometimes its convenient and I enjoy tinkering with them and my 1955 tractor as the mood takes me.

Why would I want to spend time driving a Tesla and going on bulletin boards to share my experiences?

Why would I want to spend money that I can invest and make into more money rather than have it depreciate away. Lots of folk love to spend money and are not troubled by depreciation. My job is to take their money.

There is a school of investing which says buy the shares of companies whose products you enjoy. However, the school of investing I belong to is, buy the shares of companies who are selling stuff that a lot of folk enjoy and who are market leaders. I rarely use Amazon as its too expensive for my principles, but I see a lot of folk using Amazon, so I buy Amazon shares when they have sold off, sell them when they have gone up. Rinse and repeat!

In all of my interests and activities the old phrase Caveat Emptor is never far from my mind and having seen more scams than I can shake a stick at I am very well tuned to spotting them and imho a lot of the negative stuff posted about Tesla is from vested interests, either folk being paid or folk who hate Musk.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

1. Re CN, I think the underlying point I repeated (from tmc) is valid, though I accept your caveat re the detail of the numbers.
2. Re non-Tesla charging horror stories, there are many. Buying a Tesla as a means of access to a working charger network is a no-brainer.
3. VW have been very coy about profitability of the ID3. The few snippets out there are I am afraid at rumour level, but are also believable. Why do you think the VW board are not going 100% on BEV to the extent that they basically demoted the pro-BEV CEO?

1. Your point was that Tesla had almost half the dollars spent on BEV's in China which is palpably untrue...

2. So go with numbers...

3. I forgot most companies usually give in depth profit analysis of their new product. For now at the very least the ID3 is doing a very nice job in knocking those gCO2/km off the fleet average, but the thing which will earn them money isn't any one vehicle it's the underlying MEB architecture, but you already know that. Tesla's market segmentation is, let's say, a little blunt...

They got around to filling the role previously held by the man who ascended to group CEO... You have a very strange definition of demotion. Might we all be so unsuccessful.

[odysseus2000]

This is an example of the expected loss on each id3 sold, about 3000 Euro & no profit till 2025:

https://www.caradvice.com.au/751743/vol ... eo-losses/

The real loss is much larger as one must add the loss of profit from not selling an ice car.

Regards

[BobbyD]

This is an example of the expected loss on each id3 sold, about 3000 Euro & no profit till 2025:

https://www.caradvice.com.au/751743/vol ... eo-losses/

The real loss is much larger as one must add the loss of profit from not selling an ice car.

Regards

2 year old unsubstantiated rumour, which even if true sees the ID.3 turning to profitability in 4 years.

You're right VW are obviously doomed.

[dspp]

This is an example of the expected loss on each id3 sold, about 3000 Euro & no profit till 2025:

https://www.caradvice.com.au/751743/vol ... eo-losses/

The real loss is much larger as one must add the loss of profit from not selling an ice car.

Regards

2 year old unsubstantiated rumour, which even if true sees the ID.3 turning to profitability in 4 years.

You're right VW are obviously doomed.

BD,
If this were true, then crikey 4-years is a lot of $$$ gone. If it is untrue, then what is the reality please. My own guess is that if VW were coining it in on the ID3, then they'd announce it. But they are not.
Regards,
dspp

[tjh290633]

There seems to be a lot of confusion about how far folk drive in their normal life. Some suggest in the UK it is typically about 20 miles per day with only the odd trip of a hundred miles or so. If this is correct then a lot of the range anxiety in the UK is likely about just a few folk who want to drive much longer than these average values.

When I was driving for business, I was doing about 30,000 miles per year, and I would suggest that this is not untypical for the sort of market that Tesla is aiming at. There will be many whose daily mileage is a trip to the station and back home again, but mine was often 150 or so miles before breakfast, and then perhaps another 100 miles during the day, and then a final 100 miles or more to my overnght stay. Sometimes a 250 mile drive back home after a day's work visiting the odd client or two.

I can assure you that range anxiety would be often foremost in my head, and avoiding usurious motorway filling stations was a prime objective. There was a time when the M40 was barren of places to refuel, but fortunately Tesco and ASDA had a number of convenient stores. The chances of recharging a battery at a construction site would be negligible.

TJH

[Howard]

This is an example of the expected loss on each id3 sold, about 3000 Euro & no profit till 2025:

https://www.caradvice.com.au/751743/vol ... eo-losses/

The real loss is much larger as one must add the loss of profit from not selling an ice car.

Regards

2 year old unsubstantiated rumour, which even if true sees the ID.3 turning to profitability in 4 years.

You're right VW are obviously doomed.

BD,
If this were true, then crikey 4-years is a lot of $$$ gone. If it is untrue, then what is the reality please. My own guess is that if VW were coining it in on the ID3, then they'd announce it. But they are not.
Regards,
dspp

Anyone who has worked for a multi-national at a senior level would be very surprised if VW gave away any meaningful profitability figures for major new products. Few people in VW will know the real situation.

Hints may be dropped, like the one that they are already buying batteries cheaper than Tesla. But we’ve discussed that and it’s not very likely at the moment. The most we could expect are some insightful comments by their financial PR team and senior management to analysts. They might hint at unprofitability to deter competition?

Anyway, whatever they say, after dieselgate, who will believe them?

We’ll probably have to wait for the financial results for 2022 or later to get an idea of VW’s underlying profitability for their BEV programme. And by then the development costs (and profits!) for the ID.1, ID.2, ID.4 and ID.5 might muddy the water.

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

2 year old unsubstantiated rumour, which even if true sees the ID.3 turning to profitability in 4 years.

You're right VW are obviously doomed.

BD,
If this were true, then crikey 4-years is a lot of $$$ gone. If it is untrue, then what is the reality please. My own guess is that if VW were coining it in on the ID3, then they'd announce it. But they are not.
Regards,
dspp

Anyone who has worked for a multi-national at a senior level would be very surprised if VW gave away any meaningful profitability figures for major new products. Few people in VW will know the real situation.

VW have said that they expect to make money on the ID3, but as anybody whose idea of the norm wasn't Tesla would expect haven't gone in to detail.

The one specific they have divulged, which has appeared in these pages previously, is that they expect the cost of putting an ID.3 together to be 40% cheaper than the cost of putting an e-golf together.

Doubtless that is just a desperate company talking its own book even as its mouth fills with quicksand, and a 2 year old unsourced, unsubstantiated rumour is obviously exactly the sort of high quality material which sector analysts and competent investors will be pouring over during their decision making.

If this is the stickiest mud that can be thrown at VW frankly I'm underinvested!

[odysseus2000]

There seems to be a lot of confusion about how far folk drive in their normal life. Some suggest in the UK it is typically about 20 miles per day with only the odd trip of a hundred miles or so. If this is correct then a lot of the range anxiety in the UK is likely about just a few folk who want to drive much longer than these average values.

When I was driving for business, I was doing about 30,000 miles per year, and I would suggest that this is not untypical for the sort of market that Tesla is aiming at. There will be many whose daily mileage is a trip to the station and back home again, but mine was often 150 or so miles before breakfast, and then perhaps another 100 miles during the day, and then a final 100 miles or more to my overnght stay. Sometimes a 250 mile drive back home after a day's work visiting the odd client or two.

I can assure you that range anxiety would be often foremost in my head, and avoiding usurious motorway filling stations was a prime objective. There was a time when the M40 was barren of places to refuel, but fortunately Tesco and ASDA had a number of convenient stores. The chances of recharging a battery at a construction site would be negligible.

TJH

As things now are with BEV I am not sure any BEV could give this kind of anxiety free range.

30,000 miles over say 48 weeks at 5 days per week = 30,000/(48x5) = average 125 miles per day, but given that some days will be 350 miles, the best cost effective option currently would be the model 3 long range has an epa rated range of 353 miles:

https://www.google.com/search?client=sa ... 8&oe=UTF-8

The long range model S is better at 400 miles, but more expensive:

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/blog/model- ... edirect=no

We could argue for ever whether these ranges are real or marketing.

For this kind of distance motoring one would need a home fast charger to be sure of getting the charge needed which are expensive, although if one is visiting clients in cities with pollution charging, this may favour the cost of the home charger over paying the pollution charges.

The last time I recall looking, the company car market was about 2/3 of all car sales, but what fraction now need this kind of range given all the advances in distance working I don't know.

In my case it is always cheaper for me to have stuff delivered than go for it, save for groceries as I can walk, but other business needs may require personal visits and lots of driving.

Every person, or fleet manager, will have to access individual needs and buy/lease to suit.

In 10 years there will no longer be new ICE available and I imagine ICE will have become very unpopular within 5 years or sooner given the political and personal desires to reduce pollution and green house gases.

Something may happen to de-rail BEV, but as things now are I currently can see no reason why BEV infrastructure will not vastly improve long before 2030 and remove the range anxiety even for 30k per year motorists.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Porche cet is still keen on e-fuels:

https://www.teslarati.com/porsche-tayca ... el-program

I can personally see no sense to hydrogen based e-fuels as they are stuck with the laws of thermodynamics that limit efficiency to <= 30% whereas electric motors easily exceed 80% efficiency, batteries similar, so overall BEV efficiency is around 64% (0.8x0.8).

What is the case for e-fuels other than not having enough batteries?

Regards,

[BobbyD]

What is the case for e-fuels other than not having enough batteries?

Plugging a 2016 Vauxhall Corsa in is unlikely to get you very far.

[odysseus2000]

What is the case for e-fuels other than not having enough batteries?

Plugging a 2016 Vauxhall Corsa in is unlikely to get you very far.

Putting e-fuel into a 2016 Vauxhall Corsa is unlike to get you very far.

Regards,