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Musk endeavours

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dspp
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Re: Musk endeavours

#376264

Postby dspp » January 12th, 2021, 3:13 pm

Porsche manages 20k Taycans in 2020
Taycan deliveries totalled 20,015 in 2020, despite a six-week pause in production just as the new model was ramping up, and despite many markets planning spring premieres.
https://electrek.co/2021/01/12/porsche- ... tric-cars/

- dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376339

Postby dspp » January 12th, 2021, 7:25 pm

We are starting to see global data for Tesla model 3 sales (39,335) and Tesla model Y (11,481) and VW ID3 sales (8,549)

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/12/gl ... -2020.html

It is almost as if VW sent all the production to just NO+NL+DE or something, i.e, we should be very careful in treating data from those countries as being globally representative. (And as if Tesla did the reverse.)

VAG seem to be pretty heavily dependent on PHEV at present, I wonder how long that will continue as it is an indicator of cell constraints.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376344

Postby BobbyD » January 12th, 2021, 7:38 pm

dspp wrote:It is almost as if VW sent all the production to just NO+NL+DE or something, i.e, we should be very careful in treating data from those countries as being globally representative.


That you would talk about global sales of a Europe only model....

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376349

Postby Howard » January 12th, 2021, 7:44 pm

“BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen tripled their sales of electrified vehicles to nearly 600,000 last year, the companies said, edging out Tesla in Europe as they rushed to meet new CO2 reduction targets.”

Obviously this figure includes PHEVs but it may explain why Tesla’s sales in Europe dropped 10% in 2020 and even more in Q4. And their share of the BEV segment has reduced significantly recently.

“The VW brand alone has sold 117,000 pure-electric vehicles on the continent, while Tesla’s deliveries to the region totaled 96,000 in 2020, according to data compiled by automotive analyst Matthias Schmidt.”

“The BMW Group, which owns the Mini and Rolls-Royce brands, said of the 2.3 million cars sold worldwide in 2020, nearly 193,000 were electrified, an increase of almost 32% from 2019.”

Audi’s luxury BEVs outsold the Tesla S and X convincingly. According to Electrek they sold almost 50,000.

Tesla’s growth in 2020 was really concentrated in China. Their sales volumes in the USA and Canada only increased about 10% and even less in turnover terms.

regards

Howard

https://www.usa-vision.com/german-carma ... cle-surge/

https://electrek.co/2021/01/12/audi-sel ... suvs-2020/
Last edited by Howard on January 12th, 2021, 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376350

Postby dspp » January 12th, 2021, 7:45 pm

BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:It is almost as if VW sent all the production to just NO+NL+DE or something, i.e, we should be very careful in treating data from those countries as being globally representative.


That you would talk about global sales of a Europe only model....


Well, I've got to start somewhere .........

...... more precisely VAG moved from approx Oct-ytd 12.8% to Nov-ytd 13.9% on a vehicle sales basis so up 1.1% ........ though that has quite large error-bars due to the way I had to back it out from the bigger database. In %GWh terms there was negligible movement by VAG (-0.3%) and in $$-share terms down a tadge (-0.2%)

..... depending on whether one was being charitable one might suggest that VAG have gotten better at targetting limited numbers of batteries so as to stay in the game, which would be sensible behavior imho.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376353

Postby Howard » January 12th, 2021, 7:50 pm

dspp wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:It is almost as if VW sent all the production to just NO+NL+DE or something, i.e, we should be very careful in treating data from those countries as being globally representative.


That you would talk about global sales of a Europe only model....


Well, I've got to start somewhere .........

...... more precisely VAG moved from approx Oct-ytd 12.8% to Nov-ytd 13.9% on a vehicle sales basis so up 1.1% ........ though that has quite large error-bars due to the way I had to back it out from the bigger database. In %GWh terms there was negligible movement by VAG (-0.3%) and in $$-share terms down a tadge (-0.2%)

..... depending on whether one was being charitable one might suggest that VAG have gotten better at targetting limited numbers of batteries so as to stay in the game, which would be sensible behavior imho.

regards, dspp


Rather unsporting of VW to dominate the BEV markets close to Tesla Berlin? ;)

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376364

Postby BobbyD » January 12th, 2021, 8:10 pm

dspp wrote: ..... depending on whether one was being charitable one might suggest that VAG have gotten better at targetting limited numbers of batteries so as to stay in the game, which would be sensible behavior imho.


If I were starting a new product line I think I might open it in markets where I see the greatest return, including regulatory benefits, and markets which have shown the greatest affinity for similar products. If one were operating on the basis of Bill's blade one might suggest that VW are doing just that.

Speaking of the Netherlands here's their Dec '20 top 5:

1 ID.3 6083
2 Kona 4441
3 Model 3 3938
4 ID.4 2408
5 e-tron 2211

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376404

Postby dspp » January 12th, 2021, 10:43 pm

BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote: ..... depending on whether one was being charitable one might suggest that VAG have gotten better at targetting limited numbers of batteries so as to stay in the game, which would be sensible behavior imho.


If I were starting a new product line I think I might open it in markets where I see the greatest return, including regulatory benefits, and markets which have shown the greatest affinity for similar products. If one were operating on the basis of Bill's blade one might suggest that VW are doing just that.


It will not be until 2022 when VAG and TSLA both have factories in three continents hitting scale with multiple models. So 2021 will still be an odd year in competitive gaming terms, with a lot of positioning going on. During 2022 we should see a more reliable picture emerge from a more comparable factory-set and product-set.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376414

Postby BobbyD » January 12th, 2021, 11:40 pm

dspp wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote: ..... depending on whether one was being charitable one might suggest that VAG have gotten better at targetting limited numbers of batteries so as to stay in the game, which would be sensible behavior imho.


If I were starting a new product line I think I might open it in markets where I see the greatest return, including regulatory benefits, and markets which have shown the greatest affinity for similar products. If one were operating on the basis of Bill's blade one might suggest that VW are doing just that.


It will not be until 2022 when VAG and TSLA both have factories in three continents hitting scale with multiple models. So 2021 will still be an odd year in competitive gaming terms, with a lot of positioning going on. During 2022 we should see a more reliable picture emerge from a more comparable factory-set and product-set.

regards, dspp


You know what they say about good players competing against other players whilst great players compete against themselves? I think you are reading too much short term competition in to this. VW is rolling out a plan to become a major player in BEV's according to the timetable and strategy which is suited to its situation. Tesla's situation is markedly different but were I a significant holder of Tesla I would hope that Tesla were doing the same and not just carpet bombing the planet with factories to signal 'progress'.

It's easy to concentrate on sales numbers because they are public and easy to obtain. It's a perfect example of the availability heuristic. It's far harder to discern far more meaningful developments, a case in point being that for the entire duration of the development of MEB VW's announcements were being derided as 'vaporware'.

Now obviously I'm happy with every VW BEV sold, the e-tron and the Taycan both of which I championed are selling well the ID.3 is off to a good start, and the ID.4 made 10th best selling BEV in Netherlands with one month of sales, but I'm happier to see VW's plan unfolding and their electric offerings coming to more closely resemble their ubiquitous ICE brethren. This year should give us atleast one Porsche, a cheap Audi on MEB, a very not cheap Audi, and a Cupra. VW don't want to become the new Tesla, they want to become the electric VW.

We may get to a point where VW and Tesla are playing the same game and raw sales comparisons are more meaningful, but in a very immature market I don't believe this is it, and judging by their very different approaches to the market neither do they.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376419

Postby Howard » January 13th, 2021, 12:09 am

Troy Teslike has figures for Model 3 sales in the USA and Canada over the last two years.

According to him, Tesla sold around 166,000 in 2019 and around 105,000 in 2020. That’s a 37% drop year on year.

The Model Y sold about 80,000 in 2020. Most in Q3 and Q4.

regards

Howard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =941273905

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376440

Postby TUK020 » January 13th, 2021, 7:39 am

Howard wrote:Rather unsporting of VW to dominate the BEV markets close to Tesla Berlin? ;)

regards

Howard


Rumour has it that VW are about to introduce a new model called "Sand Lizard"

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376463

Postby dspp » January 13th, 2021, 9:27 am

BobbyD wrote:
Now obviously I'm happy with every VW BEV sold, the e-tron and the Taycan both of which I championed are selling well the ID.3 is off to a good start, and the ID.4 .....

We may get to a point where VW and Tesla are playing the same game and raw sales comparisons are more meaningful, but in a very immature market I don't believe this is it, and judging by their very different approaches to the market neither do they.


1. The Taycan is I believe selling at about 50% of the rate that Porsche planned for, only 20k, not the 40k they were hoping for.
2. The ID3 software load was only production-ready late-Nov, when (AFAIK) they went round them all doing a manual reload. Until then there is gossip that they were waiving lease payments.
3. Personally what I am mostly paying attention to is manufacturing capacity, most importantly at cell level as evidenced in aggregate company global sales data.
4. And of course, the biggest missing number - the VAG BEV %GM .......

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376529

Postby BobbyD » January 13th, 2021, 11:33 am

dspp wrote:1. The Taycan is I believe selling at about 50% of the rate that Porsche planned for, only 20k, not the 40k they were hoping for.


The Taycan's ultimate capacity was supposed to be 20,000pa, which was raised in response to demand to 40,000pa. In the same way if memory serves the e-tron was planned to peak at 30,000 vehicles a year, but posted 50,000 this year.

Extra staff have been sequestered from Audi to help with the ramp up which was never going to occur overnight and was a process which wasn't helped by having to shutter the factory for 6 weeks... I believe if this was a Tesla the phrase you would use would be supply constrained.

dspp wrote:2. The ID3 software load was only production-ready late-Nov, when (AFAIK) they went round them all doing a manual reload. Until then there is gossip that they were waiving lease payments.


It's not gossip, I told you this some while back. VW doesn't charge for features it hasn't delivered, unlike some FSD hawking electric car manufacturers I could mention...

dspp wrote:3. Personally what I am mostly paying attention to is manufacturing capacity, most importantly at cell level as evidenced in aggregate company global sales data.


I hadn't noticed! We look for different things. Personally I think your focus is too narrow, too short termist and too easily assuaged with available data. It's almost as if our different outlooks ought to lead us to back different companies!

dspp wrote:4. And of course, the biggest missing number - the VAG BEV %GM ...


I'm perpetually amused by your obsession with that figure given your unwavering belief in a company which posted 16 years of straight losses!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376617

Postby dspp » January 13th, 2021, 3:01 pm

BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:1. The Taycan is I believe selling at about 50% of the rate that Porsche planned for, only 20k, not the 40k they were hoping for.


The Taycan's ultimate capacity was supposed to be 20,000pa, which was raised in response to demand to 40,000pa. In the same way if memory serves the e-tron was planned to peak at 30,000 vehicles a year, but posted 50,000 this year.

Extra staff have been sequestered from Audi to help with the ramp up which was never going to occur overnight and was a process which wasn't helped by having to shutter the factory for 6 weeks... I believe if this was a Tesla the phrase you would use would be supply constrained.

dspp wrote:2. The ID3 software load was only production-ready late-Nov, when (AFAIK) they went round them all doing a manual reload. Until then there is gossip that they were waiving lease payments.


It's not gossip, I told you this some while back. VW doesn't charge for features it hasn't delivered, unlike some FSD hawking electric car manufacturers I could mention...

dspp wrote:3. Personally what I am mostly paying attention to is manufacturing capacity, most importantly at cell level as evidenced in aggregate company global sales data.


I hadn't noticed! We look for different things. Personally I think your focus is too narrow, too short termist and too easily assuaged with available data. It's almost as if our different outlooks ought to lead us to back different companies!

dspp wrote:4. And of course, the biggest missing number - the VAG BEV %GM ...


I'm perpetually amused by your obsession with that figure given your unwavering belief in a company which posted 16 years of straight losses!


So on the one hand I am being criticised for looking at all the numbers I can gain access to re all manufacturers; on the other hand I am criticised for only looking at the numbers I can get; and on the left foot I am criticised for asking about the key missing number wrt VAG because it is not being disclosed to shareholders (even though TSLA report it) and so we have no idea how much money VAG has lost on BEVs. I expect the right foot is ticking me off simultaneously for taking both a short term view and a long term view. Funny old world isn't it.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376736

Postby odysseus2000 » January 13th, 2021, 7:34 pm

This is interesting and a bit unsettling as Bill Maurer seems bullish:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/439876 ... king_alpha

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376799

Postby BobbyD » January 13th, 2021, 10:13 pm

dspp wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:1. The Taycan is I believe selling at about 50% of the rate that Porsche planned for, only 20k, not the 40k they were hoping for.


The Taycan's ultimate capacity was supposed to be 20,000pa, which was raised in response to demand to 40,000pa. In the same way if memory serves the e-tron was planned to peak at 30,000 vehicles a year, but posted 50,000 this year.

Extra staff have been sequestered from Audi to help with the ramp up which was never going to occur overnight and was a process which wasn't helped by having to shutter the factory for 6 weeks... I believe if this was a Tesla the phrase you would use would be supply constrained.

dspp wrote:2. The ID3 software load was only production-ready late-Nov, when (AFAIK) they went round them all doing a manual reload. Until then there is gossip that they were waiving lease payments.


It's not gossip, I told you this some while back. VW doesn't charge for features it hasn't delivered, unlike some FSD hawking electric car manufacturers I could mention...

dspp wrote:3. Personally what I am mostly paying attention to is manufacturing capacity, most importantly at cell level as evidenced in aggregate company global sales data.


I hadn't noticed! We look for different things. Personally I think your focus is too narrow, too short termist and too easily assuaged with available data. It's almost as if our different outlooks ought to lead us to back different companies!

dspp wrote:4. And of course, the biggest missing number - the VAG BEV %GM ...


I'm perpetually amused by your obsession with that figure given your unwavering belief in a company which posted 16 years of straight losses!


So on the one hand I am being criticised for looking at all the numbers I can gain access to re all manufacturers; on the other hand I am criticised for only looking at the numbers I can get; and on the left foot I am criticised for asking about the key missing number wrt VAG because it is not being disclosed to shareholders (even though TSLA report it) and so we have no idea how much money VAG has lost on BEVs. I expect the right foot is ticking me off simultaneously for taking both a short term view and a long term view. Funny old world isn't it.

regards, dspp


Long response lost due to being logged out whilst taking in a food delivery, and I've not got long to recreate it.

Gist: I'm not criticising you I'm expressing a difference of opinion, and an opinion on where those differences originate.

Your claim about the Taycan is technically correct, but you are comparing first year production numbers to an increased peak delivery target which isn't a valid comparison. Porsche are failing to hit a target they weren't aiming for. They've discovered twice as much demand for 'the car which would nev er sell a unit because it is slower than the model 3 and costs 3 times as much' as anticipated, and drafted in extra staff from Audi to help continue the ramp up beyond the original peak target which they hit in the first year despite Covid.

To see this as a failure requires quite some effort.

VW delayed acceptance of payment on some thousands of cars for 3 months. It's not financially significant in the greater scheme of things, but good for customer relations and increasing the sense of trust in the new ID.brand. Very non-Tesla I grant you, but as usual I see that as a positive.

All the data available to us is all the data any of us can look at, but a paucity of data reduces the precision and confidence of the analysis performed on it, it doesn't increase the power of the data we do have. You choose to focus on a very narrow easily quantifiable portion of recent history and the near future. In an immature market with so much still to be revealed and so much more to be achieved I don't see value in those numbers as predictors of long term success.

In an absence of most of the 'data' you choose to extrapolate from what little publicly available data there is, I choose to extrapolate from known core competencies. You favour today's battery king over a pack of followers. I favour a company which delivers what more consumers want to buy to market at a price they are willing to pay than anybody else based on an unrivalled ability to engineer scalable platforms which lend themselves to efficient mass production and model segmentation, coupled with intelligent investments in third parties and a research capacity which is on a level with anybody out there over a company which shares your obsession with manufacturing capacity with a blithe disregard to adding any flavours beyond Strawberry or Chocolate except possibly Strawberrier and double chocolate.

Whatever happens your figures will be out of date in a few years, company cultures are remarkably resilient. Battery supply and battery demand will both change significantly. Predictions based on them will be adjusted, redone, and brushed under the carpet. VW will likely still be banging out popular models across the market with boring regularity. It wouldn't surprise me if Tesla were still only selling 2 models in reasonable volume. The irony is that the company which announces new models is Tesla, the company which delivers them is VW. When people say that tesla isn't a car company, I think they have a point...

You aren't going to get VAG BEV %GM, no matter how often you bring it up. I'm happy without it. If you aren't then obviously VW isn't the company for you. Tesla do a lot of things VW don't, generally I think this reflects well on VW, as above and as here.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376824

Postby odysseus2000 » January 13th, 2021, 11:20 pm

BobbyD
I favour a company which delivers what more consumers want to buy to market at a price they are willing to pay ...


The problem is we don't know if the price is good based on cost of production, or some kind of marketing ploy to suck in users before having to be re-adjusted up and if so what effect that will have on new buyers and existing buyer retention.

The whole concept that VW exits and will continue to exist is I believe the Achilles heel in your entire thesis.

For VW to survive they have to get BEV right, they have to get ICE scale down and substantial jobs losses right and they have to do this with out upsetting their shareholders and board which includes a lot of union and political folk who very likely have different agendas than the CEO. At some point there is likely to be a lot of strife for VW group and that could easily wreck the business.

If robotic driving happens that will be another torpedo below the waterline of VW.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376831

Postby BobbyD » January 13th, 2021, 11:35 pm

Growth play!

Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, the Group’s e-offensive with a large number of new models met with keen in-terest from customers in the year now ended and resulted in deliveries of approximately 231,600 all-electric vehicles, more than three times the volumes delivered in 2019. Plug-in hybrids were also very popular with customers, who purchased 190,500 units (+175 per-cent). In Western Europe, the share of electric vehicles therefore surged to 10.5 percent of overall deliveries (2019: 1.9 percent).

Top 5 all-electric models:

– Volkswagen ID.3 56,500 units
– Audi e-tron 47,300 units
– Volkswagen e-Golf 41,300 units
– Volkswagen e-up! 22,200 units
– Porsche Taycan 20,000 units


- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... nsive-6752

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376840

Postby Howard » January 14th, 2021, 12:54 am

Electrek is reporting a problem with Tesla MCUs

"NHTSA* is formally asking Tesla to recall over 100,000 Model S and Model X vehicles over a problem with its media unit (MCU) that can affect many functions inside the vehicles.

The entire issue has been quite a fiasco so far.

Considering there are many important functions that can only be accessed through the touchscreen/MCU in Tesla vehicles, NHTSA was looking into the matter as a potential safety issue, and despite Tesla’s warranty change, the agency was still considering a recall.

Official data released by Tesla to NTHSA showed that the failure rate of the MCU for Model S and Model X was as high as 30% in certain build months.

NHTSA has now officially asked Tesla to recall 158,000 Model S and Model X vehicles over the issue."


So is this a software problem?

Obviously OTA updatess won’t fix it.

Will this be the sort of problem that might hit Model 3s in a year or two?

Having safety features like wipers and headlights controlled by a touchscreen might prove a problem in future years?

regards

Howard

https://electrek.co/2021/01/13/nhtsa-as ... cu-fiasco/

*The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is responsible for keeping people safe on America's roadways.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#376841

Postby BobbyD » January 14th, 2021, 2:32 am

Howard wrote:Electrek is reporting a problem with Tesla MCUs

"NHTSA* is formally asking Tesla to recall over 100,000 Model S and Model X vehicles over a problem with its media unit (MCU) that can affect many functions inside the vehicles.

The entire issue has been quite a fiasco so far.

Considering there are many important functions that can only be accessed through the touchscreen/MCU in Tesla vehicles, NHTSA was looking into the matter as a potential safety issue, and despite Tesla’s warranty change, the agency was still considering a recall.

Official data released by Tesla to NTHSA showed that the failure rate of the MCU for Model S and Model X was as high as 30% in certain build months.

NHTSA has now officially asked Tesla to recall 158,000 Model S and Model X vehicles over the issue."


So is this a software problem?

Obviously OTA updatess won’t fix it.

Will this be the sort of problem that might hit Model 3s in a year or two?

Having safety features like wipers and headlights controlled by a touchscreen might prove a problem in future years?

regards

Howard

https://electrek.co/2021/01/13/nhtsa-as ... cu-fiasco/

*The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is responsible for keeping people safe on America's roadways.


Is this the same problem we were discussing back in October 2019, when Tesla were charging €3000 to fix it, and I suggested to Ody he could make some serious cash doing it for €2000?


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