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Musk endeavours

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Leif
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Re: Musk endeavours

#388381

Postby Leif » February 21st, 2021, 12:05 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
LEIF
You are unbelievably partisan. Do you own Tesla shares? Everything you write is shaped to be pro Tesla, and against non Tesla. You remind me of YouTube videos from the Teslarati. I believe they are trying to pump the share price.

The first review I read concluded with “I’d buy one”. Other reviews are very positive.

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-revie ... hatchback/
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/volkswagen/id3
https://www.carwow.co.uk/volkswagen/id3

As for your remark that it doesn’t look like the kind of car that will sell to the typical VW owner profile, reports suggest early ones have software glitches, no doubt this was to make it feel like a VW. I once couldn’t turn my VW Polo’s engine off. Taking the key out didn’t do it! I couldn’t turn the radio off either. So I was stuck outside the Ercol showroom, making a racket, unable to go inside.

BTW Tesla have had three recalls in China in the last six months alone, the latest is for touchscreen failures. For ages Tesla had quality control issues. A recent recall was for potentially faulty and unsafe suspension.

It’ll be interesting to see if once Tesla manufacturing has been in place a few years, if the Chinese make life hard for them, to favour Chinese companies who use the same supply chain.


Yes, I own Tesla equity often trade them, although recently I have been buy and hold and the shares have been good to me, which I have stated very many times on this board. With every bulletin board every reader should assume that the poster has some interest in the equity.

Yes, I have read all the reviews about the ID3 and for now I have no idea if the sales figures are correct and it is selling well, or if it is not selling and the sales figures are VW to VW. Do you know? I have zero faith in reviews knowing from personal experience how unreliable and biassed they are.

My comments on what VW owners want is from knowing many of them. Their usual line of car chatter is too say how reliable VW are, then make excuses for the odd problem and are over the moon if the car doesn't have problems. Personally I prefer to buy old cars that have depreciated to scrap value and keep them running, something the VW drivers I have met would never do. Several of the VW owners were disgusted by dieselgate but have now managed to forget about this corporate thieving from them.

All car makers have recalls.

VW along with many other auto makers also have plants in China so if the Chinese state turns nasty it will hurt all the automakers and although some will argue that China is a capitalist country now, there is lots of evidence that they are currently a brutal political state and that could lead to all manner of troubles going forward, or the US and Europe may continue to turn a blind eye to the murderous activities of the communist part , although potentially having a lot of Chinese people emigrate here from Hong Kong may change views:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13939633/ ... rce=pushly

Regards,


I agree with most of that. VW have average reliability, and the supposed reputation for reliability is a mirage created by advertising. However modern cars are are very reliable, so even a middle ranking car is good. I buy new cars, and keep them long term, as I needed reliability when I was working. I bought VW because reliable Japanese brands just didn’t have what I wanted. VW are good at designing a nice package.

I suspect battery car makers are more vulnerable in China as it is the future.

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#388387

Postby BobbyD » February 21st, 2021, 12:33 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:VW along with many other auto makers also have plants in China so if the Chinese state turns nasty it will hurt all the automakers...


The Chinese Government is a partner in VW's operations and has been for over 3 decades. It is Tesla's creditor and has a claim on Giga-Shanghai if things go badly... Not exactly samesies.

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#388403

Postby odysseus2000 » February 21st, 2021, 1:23 pm

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:VW along with many other auto makers also have plants in China so if the Chinese state turns nasty it will hurt all the automakers...


The Chinese Government is a partner in VW's operations and has been for over 3 decades. It is Tesla's creditor and has a claim on Giga-Shanghai if things go badly... Not exactly samesies.


If the West and China get at serious loggerheads everything becomes uncertain, contracts can be broken, partners can acquire all the assets of the other and if things get into a hot war, factories can be blown to kingdom come in a heart beat.

However, one views China there are serious geopolitical risks.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#388407

Postby BobbyD » February 21st, 2021, 1:34 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:If the West and China get at serious loggerheads everything becomes uncertain, contracts can be broken, partners can acquire all the assets of the other and if things get into a hot war, factories can be blown to kingdom come in a heart beat.

However, one views China there are serious geopolitical risks.

Regards,


Yes that's true, being American rather than German is another significant strike against Tesla in terms of their Chinese operations. Germany afterall hasn't spent the last 4 years opening and fighting a trade war against China, and it wasn't the dissolution of German leadership which undermined international cooperation aimed at keeping China table friendly, emboldening Xi and ensured that the US is set up in direct opposition to China for the foreseeable future.

So partners not debtors, and German not American. The longer you look at this the better VW's position seems in comparison to that of Tesla...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#388554

Postby BobbyD » February 21st, 2021, 10:02 pm

Northvolt To Build Europe’s Largest Factory For Energy Storage Solutions In Poland


- https://insideevs.com/news/489546/north ... on-poland/

Model Y SR RWD not to be produced due to insufficient range .... to be produced ....Not to be produced again. - https://insideevs.com/news/489607/tesla ... ard-range/

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#388574

Postby odysseus2000 » February 21st, 2021, 11:35 pm

BobbyD
Yes that's true, being American rather than German is another significant strike against Tesla in terms of their Chinese operations. Germany afterall hasn't spent the last 4 years opening and fighting a trade war against China, and it wasn't the dissolution of German leadership which undermined international cooperation aimed at keeping China table friendly, emboldening Xi and ensured that the US is set up in direct opposition to China for the foreseeable future.

So partners not debtors, and German not American. The longer you look at this the better VW's position seems in comparison to that of Tesla...


Just for a change we see things entirely differently!

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#388580

Postby odysseus2000 » February 21st, 2021, 11:50 pm

Tesla solar roof sheds snow much more efficiently than traditional roofs:

https://youtu.be/f_GHVSL35-k

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#388662

Postby Howard » February 22nd, 2021, 11:06 am

As we have been discussing on this forum Tesla's cars range issues have kept surfacing over the last few months.

Now Tesla has withdrawn the standard range Model Y from sale in the USA within a month of launching it.

Has Tesla begun to come to terms with the reports from the major testing organisations who are showing that its cars are delivering lower ranges than claimed?

Even Elon Musk agrees there is a problem:

The launch was surprising considering CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla won’t produce the version of the Model Y because he said that the range would be “unacceptably low”

regards

Howard

https://electrek.co/2021/02/21/tesla-st ... y-updates/

and

https://insideevs.com/news/489607/tesla ... ard-range/

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#388681

Postby odysseus2000 » February 22nd, 2021, 11:47 am

Hyundai to replace batteries in its BEV at murderous expense:

https://electrek.co/2021/02/17/hyundai- ... -in-korea/

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#388708

Postby Howard » February 22nd, 2021, 12:56 pm

Does the LG battery problem affect Tesla as well as Hyundai? I guess there aren’t many LG batteries in current Teslas apart from the Model Y in China. But any threat to future LG supplies may be important?

"LG Chem has now officially completed the spin-off of its battery division. The new company is apparently also going to significantly increase the production of battery cells for Tesla, which will include Giga Berlin in Germany.
...

The increased production is not only to be delivered to the Tesla plant in Shanghai but also to Tesla’s factories in Germany and the USA. LG Chem will initially be the sole supplier for the Shanghai-built Model Y. LG Chem’s Chinese plant will also initially supply battery cells for the Model Y produced in the German plant when production begins."


regards

Howard

https://www.electrive.com/2020/12/02/lg ... -spin-off/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#388756

Postby BobbyD » February 22nd, 2021, 3:01 pm

Volkswagen will launch its WeShare offer with 800 electric cars in Hamburg next week after having to postpone the launch due to the pandemic several times. Initially, WeShare will distribute 400 ID.3 before reaching the final fleet size of 800 vehicles in April.


- https://www.electrive.com/2021/02/19/vw ... n-hamburg/


https://www.we-share.io/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#388783

Postby dspp » February 22nd, 2021, 4:17 pm

Howard wrote:Does the LG battery problem affect Tesla as well as Hyundai? I guess there aren’t many LG batteries in current Teslas apart from the Model Y in China. But any threat to future LG supplies may be important?

"LG Chem has now officially completed the spin-off of its battery division. The new company is apparently also going to significantly increase the production of battery cells for Tesla, which will include Giga Berlin in Germany.
...

The increased production is not only to be delivered to the Tesla plant in Shanghai but also to Tesla’s factories in Germany and the USA. LG Chem will initially be the sole supplier for the Shanghai-built Model Y. LG Chem’s Chinese plant will also initially supply battery cells for the Model Y produced in the German plant when production begins."


regards

Howard

https://www.electrive.com/2020/12/02/lg ... -spin-off/


2020 cell production suggests a fair chunk of LG is in TSLA. However the affected cells appear only to be in the Hyundai Kona and Ioniq (https://electrek.co/2021/02/17/hyundai- ... -in-korea/). I've not seen anything to suggest that any of the TSLA models are affected. I think that the affected LG cells for Hyundai are pouch-style, whereas the Tesla cells are always cylindrical.

Image

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Re: Musk endeavours

#388838

Postby Howard » February 22nd, 2021, 5:59 pm

dspp wrote:2020 cell production suggests a fair chunk of LG is in TSLA. However the affected cells appear only to be in the Hyundai Kona and Ioniq (https://electrek.co/2021/02/17/hyundai- ... -in-korea/). I've not seen anything to suggest that any of the TSLA models are affected. I think that the affected LG cells for Hyundai are pouch-style, whereas the Tesla cells are always cylindrical.


Yes, this article is a little dated but it suggests that Hyundai’s future models will use pouch cells as well.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/12/ev ... -platform/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#388870

Postby dspp » February 22nd, 2021, 6:56 pm

Howard wrote:
dspp wrote:2020 cell production suggests a fair chunk of LG is in TSLA. However the affected cells appear only to be in the Hyundai Kona and Ioniq (https://electrek.co/2021/02/17/hyundai- ... -in-korea/). I've not seen anything to suggest that any of the TSLA models are affected. I think that the affected LG cells for Hyundai are pouch-style, whereas the Tesla cells are always cylindrical.


Yes, this article is a little dated but it suggests that Hyundai’s future models will use pouch cells as well.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/12/ev ... -platform/


I wonder if that plan has gone up in flames :)

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#388872

Postby odysseus2000 » February 22nd, 2021, 6:57 pm

The choice between pouch and cylindrical cells is a contentious issue.

Many argue how much better pouch cells are, but Tesla had the inspiration to stick with something that contains the electrolyte in a metal case and prevents swelling at the cell level and for which there was extensive experience in many areas.

I have opened many second hand PC battery packs containing 18650 cells that I bought with the intension of re-purposing the cells, and have seen no swelling, whereas my business partners MacBook gave trouble and when the repair shop opened it the back literally jumped off as the screws were removed as the pouch pack had expanded so much.

As things now are it seems that the cylindrical cells are inherently safer than the pouch type and the decision by Hyundai to use pouch cells has come back and bitten them hard.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#388920

Postby odysseus2000 » February 22nd, 2021, 9:48 pm

This is an interesting 10.5 minute video, Why America is not ready for electric cars:

https://youtu.be/4111nIN7GMQ

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#388924

Postby odysseus2000 » February 22nd, 2021, 9:55 pm

For anyone interested in the differences between pouch & cylindrical cells, this is a simple introduction:

https://medium.com/battery-lab/advantag ... 8a5f0c6804

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#388925

Postby BobbyD » February 22nd, 2021, 9:56 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:I have opened many second hand PC battery packs containing 18650 cells that I bought with the intension of re-purposing the cells, and have seen no swelling, whereas my business partners MacBook gave trouble and when the repair shop opened it the back literally jumped off as the screws were removed as the pouch pack had expanded so much.


Watched a video a while back where they put a thermoconductive pad a couple of mill thick to bridge the gap between the heatsink in a non-fan cooled mactop of some kind or another and the aluminium case to aid heat dissipation. It turns out the reason apple don't do this is the lawsuits for 3rd degree lap burns which would ensue...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#389093

Postby odysseus2000 » February 23rd, 2021, 11:07 am

I am ambivalent on the recent weakness in Tesla equity and wonder if we are now seeing a rotation out of tech and into more basic industries as the propaganda on the war with Covid has become more positive. This is the scenario that happened in the tech crash of 2000, although in that case there was no Covid component. We are also seeing several business raising cash such as shop and twlo.

Add to this is what will Powell do? Will he raise rates to add to the rises in the 10 year that started 2021 at 0.93% and are now around 1.3%, a large increase for bonds.

Bill Maurer has done a piece on Tesla that imho is too Tesla specific and misses the overall market picture;

https://seekingalpha.com/article/440812 ... king_alpha

Yesterday Tesla gapped down and sold off 8.55%, the Nasdaq was off 2.46%, so clear relative weakness in Tesla and no obvious short term catalyst to cause a recovery.

From a competitor perspective, Tesla has come through the recent months strongly with serious troubles for Hyundai and a major recall underway that will also hurt their battery supplier and reduce the amounts of batteries available for other business.

The competitiveness of the ID3 is also far from clear due to various troubles and as far as i know they have not issued a denial about VW to VW sales being counted as general sales.

Maurer also cites increasing raw material costs in particular Nickel and Copper and he estimates that these will add several hundred $ to each Tesla.

Price action on the 27th of January suggested to me that investor interest in Tesla could be waning and rather than just noting it i ought to have sold at least a substantial amount of my holding. The low of $801 contrasts with yesterdays low of $710.20, but that is water under the bridge and the question is what to do going forwards.

My overall impression is that Tesla are still the leaders in BEV, but if we are seeing sector rotation the equity price can weaken from here. There is a clear reversal on the monthly chart and the exciting moves in bitcoin will also have sucked some funds from Tesla even though Tesla’s bitcoin holding has so far proved an inspired move.

There is also the mood music and lots of folk, such as Scotty Kilmer who I linked a few posts ago giving many arguments as to why the US are not ready for BEV. All of his arguments ignore co2 emission and although his comments on hydrogen have some sense, that technology is still a long way away.

The extreme cold weather in the US and particularly Texas is being taken to show that Global warming is not real, whereas extreme weather volatility is what global warming predicts.

One can expect the entire Texas power grid to be substantially upgraded after the murderous freeze, although there are news stories that Texas requested permission to increase power output and was refused by Washington:

https://twitter.com/DJcalligraphy/statu ... 63488?s=20

The failure of the Texas power grid is also likely good news for roof top solar sales and power walls.

I have two potential approaches in my mind. One is to ignore the current price falls and simply hold through to what in a few years time will be a much stronger Tesla. The second is to return to a more active trading approach with the danger that if there is a reversal I might not be able to buy back to the size I now have.

As often Tesla is a difficult stock to fathom.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#389099

Postby dealtn » February 23rd, 2021, 11:22 am

odysseus2000 wrote:.. the danger that if there is a reversal I might not be able to buy back to the size I now have.



The average daily volume hasn't been below 20 mio shares for months. How big is your position such that this is a genuine concern!


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