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Musk endeavours

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BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#409122

Postby BobbyD » May 3rd, 2021, 9:50 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:As far as I can tell VW have substantial liabilities (note 25 to 2020 VW accounts):

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/138931 ... 45440?s=20


They also have significant assets.

This is a very boring game.

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#409139

Postby BobbyD » May 4th, 2021, 1:33 am

VW ID.4 Successfully Completed NORRA Mexican 1000 Off-Road Race


- https://insideevs.com/news/505095/volks ... orra-race/

Powertrain was stock, suspension wasn't...

VW ID.4 at the NORRA Mexico 1000 Baja race - full nerd out with Tanner Foust

- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-M3t4ISaZ8

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#409159

Postby odysseus2000 » May 4th, 2021, 7:54 am

BobbyD
They also have significant assets.

This is a very boring game.


Do they?

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/138947 ... 20645?s=20

They have intangible assets of 67.968b, which are worth nothing if the business can't sell cars.
Property plant and equip 63.884b most of this is obsolete ICE manufacturing equipment that will have to be depreciated away
Financial service receivables of 82.565b if the business goes pear shaped what happens to this?

I could go on, but as you say its a boring game, but VW and most legacy car makers are in a huge amount of trouble and imho most will not survive.

Regards,

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#409232

Postby Howard » May 4th, 2021, 1:15 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
They also have significant assets.

This is a very boring game.


Do they?

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/138947 ... 20645?s=20

They have intangible assets of 67.968b, which are worth nothing if the business can't sell cars.
Property plant and equip 63.884b most of this is obsolete ICE manufacturing equipment that will have to be depreciated away
Financial service receivables of 82.565b if the business goes pear shaped what happens to this?

I could go on, but as you say its a boring game, but VW and most legacy car makers are in a huge amount of trouble and imho most will not survive.

Regards,


You've been predicting that for 15 plus years and it hasn't happened yet. Most ICE manufacturers continue to survive and make profits and Tesla car manufacturing is barely profitable.

Can I make a prediction Ody? You won't be able to convincingly answer my challenge to give examples of three useful Tesla OTA updates for Tesla Model 3 owners. :) See post above.

regards

Howard

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#409239

Postby BobbyD » May 4th, 2021, 1:32 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:They have intangible assets of 67.968b, which are worth nothing if the business can't sell cars.
Property plant and equip 63.884b most of this is obsolete ICE manufacturing equipment that will have to be depreciated away
Financial service receivables of 82.565b if the business goes pear shaped what happens to this?


You could list more than €200bn in VW assets? Not bad for a company which is carrying an existentially risky €90bn in liabilities...

Admittedly ICE plants like Zwickau and Dresden are a problem. I mean whatever will VW do with them? We've covered this before 7 or 8 times so you are fully aware, Dresden was converted to BEV in far less time than it's taken Tesla to convert a line from old Model X to new Model X. The equipment is already depreciated away every 8 or so years. Business as normal.

What happens to loans VW own if VW magically go Bankwupt? They keep paying, but I'm sure you know this. VW bank is a money making concern, and the existence of their Financial Services division's existing assets doesn't rely on future trading.

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#409242

Postby BobbyD » May 4th, 2021, 1:37 pm

Howard wrote:You've been predicting that for 15 plus years and it hasn't happened yet. Most ICE manufacturers continue to survive and make profits and Tesla car manufacturing is barely profitable.


The manufacturing isn't profitable, still reliant on BTC sales and regulatory credits!

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#409259

Postby odysseus2000 » May 4th, 2021, 2:42 pm

BobbyD
You could list more than €200bn in VW assets? Not bad for a company which is carrying an existentially risky €90bn in liabilities...

Admittedly ICE plants like Zwickau and Dresden are a problem. I mean whatever will VW do with them? We've covered this before 7 or 8 times so you are fully aware, Dresden was converted to BEV in far less time than it's taken Tesla to convert a line from old Model X to new Model X. The equipment is already depreciated away every 8 or so years. Business as normal.

What happens to loans VW own if VW magically go Bankwupt? They keep paying, but I'm sure you know this. VW bank is a money making concern, and the existence of their Financial Services division's existing assets doesn't rely on future trading.


When VW get into trouble, their lenders will start wanting loans repaid and will not advance any more loans.

Meanwhile there will be large and on going redundancy payments to all the workers who lose their jobs and it would not be surprising if many of the loans that VW is relying on are to their own employees to allow them to buy cars.

But, I get it, because VW has prospered from the 1940's, it can't possibly go broke, just like British Leyland et al could not.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409261

Postby odysseus2000 » May 4th, 2021, 2:44 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Howard wrote:You've been predicting that for 15 plus years and it hasn't happened yet. Most ICE manufacturers continue to survive and make profits and Tesla car manufacturing is barely profitable.


The manufacturing isn't profitable, still reliant on BTC sales and regulatory credits!


Not true.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409262

Postby odysseus2000 » May 4th, 2021, 2:47 pm

Howard
Can I make a prediction Ody? You won't be able to convincingly answer my challenge to give examples of three useful Tesla OTA updates for Tesla Model 3 owners. :) See post above.


1) Extending range of Tesla cars to maximum when needed to escape from a hurricane or similar

2) Adding pet mode so that owners can use the cars air conditioning to keep their pets safe.

3) Sentry mode to protect against theft.

4) FSD updates to make driving simpler and safer.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409272

Postby BobbyD » May 4th, 2021, 3:15 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:When VW get into trouble, their lenders will start wanting loans repaid and will not advance any more loans.


You might want to look at where VW raise money...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409283

Postby odysseus2000 » May 4th, 2021, 3:40 pm

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:When VW get into trouble, their lenders will start wanting loans repaid and will not advance any more loans.


You might want to look at where VW raise money...


It was only very recently that Diess was contrasting the cash pile that Tesla had and how they had used their high equity price to raise cash by selling a small amount equity at their high valuation to beef up Tesla' balance sheet, something that Diess noted VW could not do. Meanwhile Tesla have also made a good profit on part of their Bitcoin holding.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409304

Postby Howard » May 4th, 2021, 4:54 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard
Can I make a prediction Ody? You won't be able to convincingly answer my challenge to give examples of three useful Tesla OTA updates for Tesla Model 3 owners. :) See post above.


1) Extending range of Tesla cars to maximum when needed to escape from a hurricane or similar

2) Adding pet mode so that owners can use the cars air conditioning to keep their pets safe.

3) Sentry mode to protect against theft.

4) FSD updates to make driving simpler and safer.

Regards,


Brilliant reply Ody. Thank you. ;)

I don’t think you read my challenge before replying. I specifically asked about OTA updates for UK drivers. The reason is that, if you read about their experiences, updates seem to be biased towards US drivers. So often are buggy when applied to a RHD car.

1) Extending range of Tesla cars to maximum when needed to escape from a hurricane or similar

Amazingly useful for UK drivers who can possibly squeeze a few miles extra every time there is a hurricane in the UK!

2) Adding pet mode so that owners can use the cars air conditioning to keep their pets safe.

Dog mode isn’t totally trusted by UK drivers but, to be fair, I’ll give you one point for this because it doesn’t have as many flaws as Sentry mode: see below

3) Sentry mode to protect against theft.

See Tesla threads link below. You have provided a brilliant example of a feature which has bugs and contributes problems to UK drivers.

Problems arise which have to be solved by visit to service centre - just like a VW ID.3 trip to a dealer!

Some recent comments by Model 3 owners:

"Mine is buggy and no longer has dashcam (2021). OEM USB keeps unmounting (and therefore no menu) and I have to remove/insert then format the USB to make it reappear. Sentry mode notifications no longer actionable and had one system crash upon press of alert. Hoping next release fixes prior raising via service.

Have same issue with my 2021 M3. The "Dashcam" icon will disappear all the time, I will have car charging or parked up, come back to it will say I have X amount of sentry mode events. There is no way to view them due to "viewer" not being there, I have to either unplug and plug back in USB or restart the car. This then makes any recording done previously disappear so I have no idea what actually occurred during those recordings.

I'm I loosing my mind or have they have actually removed the ability to recall the saved dash cam or sentry footage? Sure I used to access it by clicking on the camera icon, then there was a list I could then select top left? Allowing me to retrieve footage from a particular date. I Can no longer see this since the last software update.

Good luck with this. The glovebox USB is buggy as hell. The icon keeps dissapearing. Unplug and re plug back in then repeat EVERY time you get back in the car... ridiculous.

Same here m3 SR+ using the stock USB that comes with the car. I've heard using a OEM so does the same therfore looks like a software issue. Got it booked in as part of my Sc appointment

I've had to do this more times than I can count. But the issue always returns. I have a SC booked in for 29th and will bring it up with them as well as the 6 other issues

Dash cam/Sentry is yet another example of a Tesla product that is very poorly implemented and very poorly supported. It offers so much but completely fails to deliver. I certainly wouldn’t rely on dash cam to have useful footage in the event of an accident, which is why I still use my Nextbase. I can just turn it on and forget about it, knowing that it will work flawlessly as intended."


https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... re.218364/

I love the last comment, as an owner of two Nextbase dashcams, I’m pleased that they worked “out of the box”. No need to take them to a service centre!

4) FSD updates to make driving simpler and safer.

Have you read the comments about phantom braking and other scary bugs. Don’t try on UK roads. Too many problems to document here.

So sorry, only one out of four is useful to UK drivers and the others demonstrate the amount of OTA bugs.

Would you like another go? ;)

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409316

Postby Adamski » May 4th, 2021, 5:33 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:The manufacturing isn't profitable, still reliant on BTC sales and regulatory credits!

Not true.
Regards,


Have a look at the numbers. Last quarter Q1 2021...

Regulatory credits $518m sales and profit (zero cost)
Bitcoin profit $101m (bought $1.5b, and sold $272m for a profit)

Total revenue $10.4b, net profit $438m

i.e. without regulatory credits, and bitcoin, its core manufacturing business is still loss making.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/26/tesla-t ... 2021-.html

Yet the headline is Tesla earnings top estimates. Not saying cannot be profitable, just that like a lot of companies so not pretty when strip out exceptionals.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409325

Postby murraypaul » May 4th, 2021, 5:40 pm

Adamski wrote:Have a look at the numbers. Last quarter Q1 2021...

Regulatory credits $518m sales and profit (zero cost)
Bitcoin profit $101m (bought $1.5b, and sold $272m for a profit)

Total revenue $10.4b, net profit $438m

i.e. without regulatory credits, and bitcoin, its core manufacturing business is still loss making.


To be fair, they would have been profitable if it weren't for Musk's bonuses

In its quarterly report after the bell, Tesla said it incurred an expense of $299 million related to Musk's pay package, "driven by an increase in market capitalization and a new operational milestone becoming probable."

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409383

Postby BobbyD » May 4th, 2021, 8:21 pm

murraypaul wrote:To be fair, they would have been profitable if it weren't for Musk's bonuses


They'd make even more money if they didn't have to pay for materials either!

I'm not sure being a party to the world's most ridiculous compensation package is much of a mitigating factor....

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409552

Postby BobbyD » May 5th, 2021, 1:56 pm

However, the share of electric cars dipped in April compared with the first three months of the year. Sales for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles overtook pure battery electric sales, a change that the SMMT said was down to cuts in government grants for electrics. Plug-in hybrids combine an externally rechargeable battery with an internal combustion engine.

Separate data from New AutoMotive, a thinktank on policies to promote electric vehicles, showed that Volkswagen was the biggest seller of pure electric cars during April. The German carmaker has invested billions of euros in launching new electric cars such as the ID3, although battery sales in the UK were still less than a tenth of overall sales.

South Korea’s Kia was the second largest seller of battery electric cars in April, while the US carmaker Tesla, which only makes electric cars, did not make the top 10 because of inconsistent import schedules.


- https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ve-history

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409567

Postby BobbyD » May 5th, 2021, 2:44 pm

BobbyD wrote:
murraypaul wrote:To be fair, they would have been profitable if it weren't for Musk's bonuses


They'd make even more money if they didn't have to pay for materials either!

I'm not sure being a party to the world's most ridiculous compensation package is much of a mitigating factor....


To develop this point a little further there are two possibilities with regards to Musk's compensation package.

Either:

Tesla's board and shareholders have given the man who stood to benefit most from a rise in Tesla share price anyway a large swathe of the company for simply being around at the right time demonstrating outrageously ineffective corporate governance and shareholder accountability

or

Musk is the visionary genius his acolytes believe him to be and is earning his pay by putting in time and effort he wouldn't have done in the absence of the pay deal in which case it is fair to assume that if they weren't paying it Tesla wouldn't be anywhere near this close to profitability and their massive backlog of overdue projects would be much, much worse

Best case scenario for Tesla as far as I can see is that contrary to the obvious conclusion if Tesla weren't paying Musk's bonuses they would actually be far further from making a profit on their manufacturing business.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409585

Postby Howard » May 5th, 2021, 3:42 pm

BobbyD wrote:
However, the share of electric cars dipped in April compared with the first three months of the year. Sales for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles overtook pure battery electric sales, a change that the SMMT said was down to cuts in government grants for electrics. Plug-in hybrids combine an externally rechargeable battery with an internal combustion engine.

Separate data from New AutoMotive, a thinktank on policies to promote electric vehicles, showed that Volkswagen was the biggest seller of pure electric cars during April. The German carmaker has invested billions of euros in launching new electric cars such as the ID3, although battery sales in the UK were still less than a tenth of overall sales.

South Korea’s Kia was the second largest seller of battery electric cars in April, while the US carmaker Tesla, which only makes electric cars, did not make the top 10 because of inconsistent import schedules.


- https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ve-history


Looking at the SMMT figures for the UK in April 9,152 BEV and 9,600 PHEV were registered.

Tesla sold around 374 cars.

Year to date Tesla have sold just under 8,000 cars and total sales of BEVs and PHEVs are 41,000 and 36,000.

As you suggest, legacy manufacturers are substantially increasing sales of BEVs. The numbers have roughly doubled since the same period last year.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409587

Postby BobbyD » May 5th, 2021, 4:03 pm

Howard wrote:Year to date Tesla have sold just under 8,000 cars and total sales of BEVs and PHEVs are 41,000 and 36,000.

As you suggest, legacy manufacturers are substantially increasing sales of BEVs. The numbers have roughly doubled since the same period last year.

regards

Howard


Need to look at a longer less covidy timespan, but check out pure diesel vs pure BEV!

Pure diesel dropping from 19% to 11% YTD while pure BEV rises from 4% to 7.2% ...and despite that under half of cars pure Petrol.

Image

- https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409615

Postby Howard » May 5th, 2021, 4:52 pm

Tesla said to be facing 6-month delay in opening Gigafactory Berlin, based on German report - Electrek

“The start of series production in Tesla’s new Gigafactory in Grünheide near Berlin has been delayed by six months until the end of January 2022. Tesla boss Elon Musk officially gave the team half a year more, reports the Automobilwoche, citing company circles.”

Demand for Teslas in Germany and the rest of Europe can currently be satisfied from the Californian and Chinese plants. Might this be another (unspoken) reason for the six month delay in opening?

What happens to all the staff who were being recruited?

Maybe the best qualified will be hired by the German manufacturers . VW could hire them and, once they are on board, then sell them ID.3s. ;)

regards

Howard

https://electrek.co/2021/05/03/tesla-fa ... an-report/


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