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Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#430033

Postby BobbyD » July 23rd, 2021, 11:53 pm

Tesla to the moon!

Tesla autopilot system mistakes moon for traffic light, slowing car down


- https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/t ... -v6fe32431

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#430035

Postby odysseus2000 » July 24th, 2021, 12:01 am

Regarding the Goldman Sacs estimates of revenue from superchargers:

According to the South China Morning Post:

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies ... gn=3120578

Tesla’s new Super Charger will produce 10,000 V3 super chargers per year. Assuming 1 charger will have 10 stalls, then that equates to 1000 locations per year.

This can be compared with 2020 data:

https://www.electrive.com/2021/03/08/te ... milestone/

Tesla built 743 new sites with 7,173 charging points worldwide in the entire year 2020. To date, they claim to run over 20,000 charge points globally.

In 10 years the China factory could produce 100,000 charger stalls at 10,000 locations.

If the average charge cost is $10.50 and there are 10 BEV charged per day, then this gives a revenue of:

10.5 x 10 x100,000 x 365 = $3.8 billion agreeing with the table of Goldman Sacs.

Tesla might open another, or several more supercharger factories leading to Superchargers at more than 10,000 locations after 10 years and the average charge cost may go up.

All of this shows how Tesla is becoming both the Henry Ford of the automobile revolution and the Rockefeller of fuelling these cars.

Tesla made nearly 500k cars last year and may make double that this year and all these cars need to be charged and other makers are also making many more BEV.

One could argue that other makers will produce superchargers and the market will get saturated, but Tesla has the advantage of first mover and brand loyalty.

I don’t think one should dismiss such potential revenue streams lightly.

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#430584

Postby odysseus2000 » July 26th, 2021, 9:21 pm

Tesla beats on revenue and eps:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3719263-t ... king_alpha

Full details of this exceptionally good quarter:

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/ZBOU ... 021.pdf%22

Delivered over 200,000 cars, GAAP GM over 28%

Shares currently up over 1%.

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#430615

Postby odysseus2000 » July 27th, 2021, 12:02 am

The conference call can be accessed from here:

https://ir.tesla.com

Tesla is now rapidly maturing into a volume manufacturer of BEV, so much so that Elon will no longer be on most of the future earnings calls, but will still do the annual one.

The excellent results for q2 came on the back of extensive component shortages and although many devices have been substituted this still requires that the firm ware for many devices has to be re-written. The speed at which this has been done indicates the strength of the Tesla software teams.

The effects of the subscription for fsd is too early to measure.

There are still some engineering challenges with the 4680 cells, but these seem to be production engineering issues as they have validated the design from small production runs.

There is nothing here that is likely imho to move the share price strongly.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#430764

Postby Howard » July 27th, 2021, 5:11 pm

Whilst Tesla’s results are impressive, are they impressive enough to support the hype around the company?

The share price has dropped 26% over the last six months and is down today. The FT wonder if the shine is coming off the company. See below.

I have had fun driving a Tesla very recently, a 2021 LR Model 3 with FSD. And whilst the car offers superb performance, I’m not convinced that its sensors would be up to FSD in the UK. I had an interesting experience on a motorway where I could see a serious stationary hazard ahead but the car didn’t register it until the last moment. It was my anticipation and human eyesight, steering and awareness of the vehicles around me which avoided a dangerous situation.

So from practical experience, yes a very nice car, but driving in motorway conditions the range dropped to less than 300 miles so it’s not quite suitable for my needs.

And paying thousands of pounds for FSD doesn’t seem sensible.

The FT comments:

Tesla’s stellar earnings fail to enchant investors
Questions over Tesla’s FSD have dampened the response to the company’s quarterly statement.

regards

Howard

https://www.ft.com/content/e5acc32d-758 ... 0008a0fc28

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#430774

Postby odysseus2000 » July 27th, 2021, 5:58 pm

Many high growth business are coming off highs, e.g. Apple is down 1.73% as I type.

Meanwhile Bitcoin has gone from 30k to 38k in 7 days and staples, utilities and health care are all near highs.

For the moments there is a rotation to defensive stocks and cybers that would prosper in an inflation focused down move.

Tesla equity, even after the stellar earnings yesterday, will not likely run in this kind of environments, especially as the Germans are deliberately strangling Giga Berlin and there are some challenges with the new batteries and also with the cyber truck that have to be overcome.

For Tesla equity to move we will need some catalyst such as improving results from the latest FSD, use of the new batteries in production, Cyber/semi truck starting to sell.

The p/e that many have complained about as dropped from circa 650 to circa 350 and Tesla is now making profits without regulatory credits. All things the bears have complained about and which they now ignore.

Although the share price is currently off, the business is going from strength to strength and the competitors are offering subpar cars often at high prices.

Some no doubt long for the old days when good results caused the share price to rocket, but back then the survival of the business was at stake. Now we have an Apple like manufacturer of cars with associated high margins and an exciting range of new products with production around the world and although hindered by German troubles that look to be politically motivated, a clear path forwards. Tesla is at something like iPhone 1 in its development with a very strong and exciting future.

We can expect a strong steady climb. If they can get FSD to work that will be a large catalyst for the share price, but otherwise progress will be relentlessly strong and we can expect stress and troubles for the weaker legacy. A carbon tax would likely lead to a quicker decline for legacy, but even with out such a tax, legacy remain in all kinds of trouble.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#430837

Postby BobbyD » July 28th, 2021, 4:08 am

BobbyD wrote:A little more on the Quantumscape cell...

Multilayer Cell Progress

Now that we have demonstrated automotive-level performance at the single-layer cell, we turn our
focus to developing multilayer cells by stacking these single-layer cells. The basic building block of our
multilayer cells is the bilayer cell, consisting of a double-sided cathode with a separator on either side (or
a double-sided separator with a cathode on either side). We then stack two of these bilayers together to
form a 4-layer cell. Note that working with 4-layer cells requires four times the number of separator films,
which in turn requires scaling up production capacity, including tools, personnel, and input materials.

Image

We are pleased to report for the first time that we have made 4-layer multilayer cells in the 30x30mm form factor, and we have now seen close to 800 cycles at 30°C with over 90% capacity retention at both C/3 and 1C rates – substantially similar to the single-layer cells we reported in December.


https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... dex991.htm


First, we are excited to announce that we have made and are currently testing our first 10-layer cells.

These cells, in the commercially relevant 70x85 mm form factor, are being tested at 1C and C/3 (oneand three-hour charge and discharge) rates under our standard temperature (25 °C) and pressure (3.4 atmospheres), conditions we believe are relevant for automotive applications. While we need to produce and test many more such cells to collect data and statistics on their performance and reliability, this is an extremely important result, as it demonstrates we are able to make 10-layer cells with similar early capacity retention and cycling behavior to what we’ve shown for single- and four-layer cells.


- https://s26.q4cdn.com/263384136/files/d ... 021-v3.pdf

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Re: Musk endeavours

#430838

Postby BobbyD » July 28th, 2021, 5:43 am

BobbyD wrote:If it was that obvious you'd have thought that Tesla might have been able to get one of their delivery schedules right at some point over the last 4 years...

This is the second announcement of further delays to the semi THIS YEAR, and we are only in March, and it's already 2 years late...

It's vapourware!

...and what have Tesla been delivering which uses the same batteries as the semi? Everything else which uses the 4680 is also delayed!


Tesla gives rare update on 4680 battery cell production: still some work to do


- https://electrek.co/2021/07/26/tesla-up ... roduction/

Tesla delays Semi electric truck program over battery cell supply constraints


- https://electrek.co/2021/07/26/tesla-se ... k-program/

Tesla all but confirms Cybertruck production delay until 2022


- https://electrek.co/2021/07/27/tesla-cy ... n-delayed/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#430919

Postby BobbyD » July 28th, 2021, 11:05 am

...as always I forgot one...

Tesla pushes estimated delivery dates for both Model S trims

Tesla has updated its website configurator for the upcoming Model S, to reflect delivery delays on both the Long Range and Plaid trims for new customers. The Long Range Model S especially faces a massive delay, now estimated to arrive in February or March of 2022.

...Plaid was originally scheduled to arrive next month, but has now been pushed to September-October, according to Tesla’s website.


- https://electrek.co/2021/07/27/tesla-pu ... l-s-trims/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#430950

Postby odysseus2000 » July 28th, 2021, 12:48 pm

Munro on Ford using way too many connector(21:33 minutes)

https://youtu.be/eVi0MQFy9K8

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#430952

Postby odysseus2000 » July 28th, 2021, 12:54 pm

What people are missing on Tesla (1 min 27 seconds):

https://youtu.be/9PIK71qAdco

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Re: Musk endeavours

#431015

Postby scrumpyjack » July 28th, 2021, 6:13 pm

I see that, trying to keep up with Musk, Germany is now working on the V3

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/ ... ival-musk/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#431024

Postby odysseus2000 » July 28th, 2021, 6:44 pm

More info on the 'v3' German rocket and its successful funding:

https://spacenews.com/isar-aerospace-raises-75-million/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#431137

Postby BobbyD » July 29th, 2021, 9:24 am

odysseus2000 wrote:More info on the 'v3' German rocket and its successful funding:

https://spacenews.com/isar-aerospace-raises-75-million/

Regards,


The V3 was built by Wernher van Braun, for the US army who decided a rebrand was in order and called them Redstone.

Image

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PGM-11_Redstone

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Re: Musk endeavours

#431230

Postby odysseus2000 » July 29th, 2021, 1:42 pm

BobbyD
The V3 was built by Wernher van Braun, for the US army who decided a rebrand was in order and called them Redstone.


I used to work at NASA Marshall, part of the Redstone [expletive deleted] in Alabama where von braun and his team developed many US rockets.

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ReformedCharacter
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Re: Musk endeavours

#431254

Postby ReformedCharacter » July 29th, 2021, 3:52 pm

BobbyD wrote:
The V3 was built by Wernher van Braun, for the US army who decided a rebrand was in order and called them Redstone.


There was a V3 but it was a gun not a rocket, constructed at Mimoyecques in France. The gun used multiple propellant charges placed along the barrel's length and timed to fire as soon as the projectile passed them in order to provide an additional boost. One of the plans to destroy it involved a bomber filled with high-explosive which was to be flown to France with a companion plane. The pilot was supposed to bail-out at the last moment while the plane was guided to its target remotely by the companion plane. Joseph Kennedy, elder brother of the future president, was killed shortly after take-off whilst flying the explosive-filled plane which exploded prematurely. A quick end. The site was eventually rendered useless by a Tallboy bomb. It probably wasn't worth the effort because the gun could not be made to work reliably.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-3_cannon

RC

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Re: Musk endeavours

#431435

Postby BobbyD » July 30th, 2021, 12:05 pm

Tesla Megapack caught on in fire at giant battery project in Australia


- https://electrek.co/2021/07/30/tesla-me ... australia/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#431509

Postby BobbyD » July 30th, 2021, 3:44 pm

Tesla pays off owners whose batteries they throttled by OTA.

Court documents show Tesla has agreed to pay out $1.5 million to settle the claims.

...The lawyers representing the Model S owners agreed that the voltage limitation was just temporary. In fact, a 10-percent reduction lasted just three months, until Tesla pushed an update through that restored three percent of the voltage. A second, smaller, seven-percent reduction ran about seven months, after which Tesla corrected the issue via another update in March 2020.

Tesla provided documents showing that 1,552 vehicles have been restored to full maximum voltage. Another 57 cars had their battery packs replaced. The remaining cars will have their voltage restored in the future.


- https://insideevs.com/news/523561/tesla ... ling-suit/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#431566

Postby odysseus2000 » July 30th, 2021, 7:15 pm

Munro F150, 23 minutes. He likes it:

https://youtu.be/D084ANhs2-k

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Re: Musk endeavours

#431951

Postby BobbyD » August 2nd, 2021, 8:21 am

Tesla big battery fire in Victoria burns into day three


- https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... -day-three


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